Dullard's College Football - Week 8

[sciencewhiz]

I guess I misread it. You only changed the optimizations, not the inputs.

 

[BigPoppa]

Originally posted by: dullard
Division I-AA top 25 for the person who cares:

Place : Win Rating ( Wins , Losses ) Team
01 : 86.3 ( 5 , 0 ) Florida Atlantic
02 : 80.5 ( 6 , 0 ) Cal Poly
03 : 79.0 ( 5 , 1 ) James Madison
04 : 76.9 ( 5 , 1 ) Delaware
05 : 75.9 ( 5 , 0 ) Harvard
06 : 74.0 ( 6 , 1 ) Montana
07 : 73.2 ( 5 , 1 ) William & Mary
08 : 72.3 ( 5 , 1 ) Sam Houston St
09 : 71.9 ( 6 , 1 ) Georgia Southern
10 : 70.5 ( 4 , 2 ) New Hampshire
11 : 69.4 ( 6 , 0 ) Jacksonville St
12 : 67.9 ( 5 , 1 ) Stephen F. Austin
13 : 66.6 ( 6 , 1 ) Southern Illinois
14 : 65.4 ( 4 , 3 ) Appalachian St
15 : 65.0 ( 5 , 2 ) SW Missouri St
16 : 64.9 ( 4 , 2 ) Montana St
17 : 64.6 ( 3 , 3 ) Maine
18 : 64.4 ( 5 , 2 ) Furman
19 : 63.5 ( 4 , 3 ) Villanova
20 : 63.4 ( 4 , 1 ) Princeton
21 : 62.9 ( 5 , 1 ) Wofford
22 : 62.8 ( 3 , 3 ) Northeastern
23 : 62.5 ( 4 , 3 ) Eastern Washington
24 : 61.2 ( 5 , 1 ) Northwestern St
25 : 60.8 ( 3 , 2 ) Brown

Thanks for running the 1-AA stuff Dullard, appreciate it. While I like where Montana is, Ga Southern and S. Ill are pretty low compared to the 1-AA AP. Fla Atl and Cal Poly have powder puff schedules.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Do you have Div IAA score ratings too? I think that would have Ga Southern, etc higher.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: BigPoppa
Thanks for running the 1-AA stuff Dullard, appreciate it. While I like where Montana is, Ga Southern and S. Ill are pretty low compared to the 1-AA AP. Fla Atl and Cal Poly have powder puff schedules.

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
Do you have Div IAA score ratings too? I think that would have Ga Southern, etc higher.

Yep and yep. I was just too lazy to type it all in. I need to do more programming for it to output it all in one nice format.

I edited my post above to include my favorite score rating system. #1 Georgia Southern, #2 Southern Illinois, etc. Montana drops down to #9. One note, Pennsylvania didn't make the first list, but it would make it quite high if I did a score rating list (84.3 score rating). You can copy my list into a spreadsheet and sort by Score Rating if you want it listed that way. Maybe for my posts now on, I'll sort the I-AA by that method.

 

[tfinch2]

fla st. ahead of oklahoma? okay....

 

[Kilrsat]

Originally posted by: Ausm
Your ratings suck...Badgers should be #1)

Ausm

Fixed 🙂

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Gobadgrs

Originally posted by: DougK62
Notre Dame WAY too high.

Yup, agreed. They're ranked in the top 15 with 2 losses? I understand they played some decent teams, but still... 2 losses is 2 losses, they shouldn't even be in the top 30. West Virginia should be higher than 33 after winning at UConn as well, UConn had only lost one game ever in that stadium, plus WVU will win the Big East which is a major conference.

 

[Nitemare]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: Gobadgrs

Originally posted by: DougK62
Notre Dame WAY too high.

Yup, agreed. They're ranked in the top 15 with 2 losses? I understand they played some decent teams, but still... 2 losses is 2 losses, they shouldn't even be in the top 30. West Virginia should be higher than 33 after winning at UConn as well, UConn had only lost one game ever in that stadium, plus WVU will win the Big East which is a major conference.

West Virginia lost to the only halfway decent team that they will play this year out of conference and besides after November 13th they will have a conference loss anyways. Keep in mind that WV has only played one Big East Conference game and is tied for the lead with a team that got waxed by Purdue 51-0.

UConn has been division 1-A for how many months now and you are bragging about WV beating them?

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Nitemare

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: Gobadgrs

Originally posted by: DougK62
Notre Dame WAY too high.

Yup, agreed. They're ranked in the top 15 with 2 losses? I understand they played some decent teams, but still... 2 losses is 2 losses, they shouldn't even be in the top 30. West Virginia should be higher than 33 after winning at UConn as well, UConn had only lost one game ever in that stadium, plus WVU will win the Big East which is a major conference.

West Virginia lost to the only halfway decent team that they will play this year out of conference and besides after November 13th they will have a conference loss anyways. Keep in mind that WV has only played one Big East Conference game and is tied for the lead with a team that got waxed by Purdue 51-0.

UConn has been division 1-A for how many months now and you are bragging about WV beating them?

True, WVU only beat and played 1 BE team atm, so that's probably why they're lower than usual. They should just into the top 15 after trouncing on these guys and winning the BE.

UConn is still tough at their stadium... they will only get better too, not many big 1-A schools up there to compete for talent except BC and SYR.

 

[HardcoreRobot]

OK and TX too low
A&M, Utah, Az State, FSU too high

interesting stuff. this is a estimation of how good they are in the ultimate sense right, like takes into consideration future opponents? or is it purely an analysis of what has happened thus far?

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
this is a estimation of how good they are in the ultimate sense right, like takes into consideration future opponents? or is it purely an analysis of what has happened thus far?

It only considers things that happened so far - future games are not analyzed. If all teams do exactly as expected, then subtract about 1 point for each expected loss. Then you can estimate where they'd be at the end of the year. Of course, nothing will go exactly as expected, and there will be a lot of shuffeling as the year goes on.

 

[Alkaline5]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
West Virginia should be higher than 33 after winning at UConn as well, UConn had only lost one game ever in that stadium, plus WVU will win the Big East which is a major conference.

The Big East is only a major conference on paper at this point. The only good teams they'll have next year are WVU and Louisville, but they'll have trouble getting respect due to low strength-of-schedule (which is their current problem, too). Unless the Big East picks up some major talent before 2007, I expect they'll lose their automatic BCS-bid when the contract is up for renewal.

IMO WVU should look at jumping ship, but I'm not sure where they'd go. The Big 10 could use a 12th team, I guess...

 

[BornStar]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: DougK62
Notre Dame WAY too high.

I'd probably agree. But as it is, they have beaten a lot of teams that are hovering in/out of the top 25. Sure they aren't the toughest teams out there, but Mighigan, Michigan State, Stanford, and Navy all have a chance of being ranked at the end of the year. Notre Dame is one of the teams I enjoy watching (assuming they lose). Lets hope that Notre Dame isn't ranked as high at the end of the year.

The part that bugs me about Notre Dame's ranking (not surprisinly) is that they're 6 places ahead of Purdue, who blew them away (in South Bend, I might add). Granted, your score rating has Purdue ahead, but not by much.

 

[ArmchairAthlete]

45 : 40.8 \ 35.8 ( 4 , 2 ) Georgia Tech

=(

 

[Balt]

You have Florida St. ranked #4....

I like it. 😀

 

[Mo0o]

Go Duke #106 man we're so good

 

[abracadabra1]

i didn't take a real good look, but the first thing that jumped out at me is that arizona state is ranked higher than cal. judging from both team's performance against USC, i think cal is clearly the better team.

 

[BigPoppa]

Originally posted by: ArmchairAthlete
45 : 40.8 \ 35.8 ( 4 , 2 ) Georgia Tech

=(

Tech will be pretty hardy the next two years with Ball getting more experienced.

And GT always has basketball...

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: BornStar18

The part that bugs me about Notre Dame's ranking (not surprisinly) is that they're 6 places ahead of Purdue, who blew them away (in South Bend, I might add). Granted, your score rating has Purdue ahead, but not by much.

Sagarin has Purdue's score predictor only slightly higher then Notre Dame as well. The last two weeks, their offense hasn't shown up like it had before, and that probably hurts their score rating a lot.

Originally posted by: abracadabra1
i didn't take a real good look, but the first thing that jumped out at me is that arizona state is ranked higher than cal. judging from both team's performance against USC, i think cal is clearly the better team.

Arizona St has played a better schedule then Cal. If you look at the BCS computers (which don't take MOV into account), Arizona St averages 9th, while Cal averages 12th. Dullards win rating only takes MOV marginally into account, which is why Arizona St is still ahead. Dullards score rating really takes MOV into account and has Cal way ahead of Arizona St.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
OK and TX too low
A&M, Utah, Az State, FSU too high

interesting stuff. this is a estimation of how good they are in the ultimate sense right, like takes into consideration future opponents? or is it purely an analysis of what has happened thus far?

Unless UT suddenly gets a passing game in the next 4 weeks A&M has a chance to beat them handily at UT or not. OU wont survive its back to back road trips to Stillwater and College Station, they will lose one of them. Did I mention both UT and OU are beat up and lacking depth at key positions?