Dullard's College Football - Week 11

[dullard]

Place , Win Rating , Score Rating , W , L , Team name
01 , 72.2 , 70.5 , 9 , 0 , Texas
02 , 72.1 , 66.6 , 9 , 1 , Penn State
03 , 70.3 , 73.0 , 9 , 0 , Southern Cal
04 , 67.1 , 61.6 , 8 , 1 , Virginia Tech
05 , 66.6 , 62.5 , 7 , 1 , Miami FL
06 , 64.0 , 64.9 , 7 , 2 , Ohio State
07 , 63.9 , 54.1 , 9 , 0 , Alabama
08 , 62.8 , 56.9 , 8 , 1 , Oregon
09 , 61.1 , 55.2 , 7 , 1 , LSU
10 , 61.1 , 50.7 , 8 , 2 , Wisconsin
11 , 60.1 , 62.3 , 6 , 2 , Notre Dame
12 , 59.5 , 55.9 , 6 , 3 , Michigan
13 , 59.4 , 52.2 , 7 , 1 , Georgia
14 , 58.6 , 52.4 , 7 , 2 , Colorado
15 , 57.0 , 53.7 , 6 , 3 , Minnesota
16 , 57.0 , 49.4 , 7 , 2 , Florida
17 , 56.9 , 48.0 , 7 , 1 , West Virginia
18 , 56.5 , 48.8 , 6 , 3 , Northwestern
19 , 56.5 , 48.0 , 9 , 1 , TCU
20 , 55.9 , 47.6 , 8 , 1 , UCLA
21 , 55.7 , 46.3 , 6 , 2 , Georgia Tech
22 , 54.4 , 52.2 , 8 , 1 , Texas Tech
23 , 53.4 , 52.5 , 6 , 2 , Louisville
24 , 53.2 , 53.9 , 7 , 2 , Auburn
25 , 52.8 , 50.0 , 7 , 2 , Florida St
26 , 52.6 , 43.0 , 5 , 3 , Oklahoma
27 , 51.9 , 48.4 , 6 , 3 , Boston College
28 , 49.4 , 39.3 , 6 , 3 , South Carolina
29 , 48.9 , 39.9 , 4 , 4 , North Carolina
30 , 48.4 , 47.8 , 4 , 3 , South Florida
31 , 48.0 , 50.5 , 5 , 4 , Arizona St
32 , 48.0 , 37.6 , 7 , 1 , UTEP
33 , 47.9 , 51.5 , 7 , 1 , Fresno St
34 , 46.1 , 47.1 , 5 , 4 , Iowa
35 , 46.0 , 49.1 , 5 , 4 , Michigan St
36 , 45.8 , 45.2 , 6 , 3 , Iowa St
37 , 45.0 , 45.1 , 5 , 4 , Clemson
38 , 44.2 , 41.0 , 4 , 4 , North Carolina St
39 , 43.0 , 47.2 , 6 , 3 , California
40 , 43.0 , 40.9 , 4 , 4 , Maryland
41 , 43.0 , 35.7 , 5 , 4 , Missouri
42 , 42.9 , 40.6 , 5 , 3 , Virginia
43 , 42.8 , 38.0 , 7 , 2 , Boise St
44 , 42.7 , 36.8 , 5 , 4 , Kansas
45 , 42.6 , 35.5 , 5 , 4 , Colorado St
46 , 42.4 , 40.5 , 3 , 5 , Tennessee
47 , 42.2 , 38.0 , 4 , 4 , Stanford
48 , 42.0 , 39.7 , 7 , 2 , Toledo
49 , 41.9 , 31.5 , 6 , 3 , Central Florida
50 , 41.7 , 39.7 , 4 , 3 , Southern Miss
51 , 41.3 , 36.3 , 5 , 4 , Nebraska
52 , 41.0 , 35.7 , 5 , 4 , Texas A&M
53 , 40.2 , 36.1 , 5 , 4 , Oregon St
54 , 40.0 , 40.5 , 3 , 6 , Purdue
55 , 39.3 , 38.2 , 5 , 4 , Brigham Young
56 , 38.4 , 32.5 , 5 , 4 , Central Michigan
57 , 38.3 , 38.5 , 6 , 3 , Miami OH
58 , 38.2 , 36.0 , 6 , 3 , Rutgers
59 , 37.8 , 33.2 , 5 , 4 , Tulsa
60 , 37.4 , 31.3 , 4 , 5 , Indiana
61 , 37.0 , 31.6 , 5 , 4 , New Mexico
62 , 36.5 , 32.5 , 4 , 5 , Vanderbilt
63 , 36.1 , 34.9 , 5 , 4 , Utah
64 , 34.7 , 27.9 , 4 , 5 , Kansas St
65 , 34.5 , 33.2 , 4 , 6 , Wake Forest
66 , 34.4 , 37.2 , 4 , 5 , Pittsburgh
67 , 34.4 , 30.3 , 4 , 5 , Baylor
68 , 34.0 , 25.9 , 4 , 4 , Cincinnati
69 , 33.9 , 32.3 , 4 , 4 , Houston
70 , 33.5 , 32.9 , 5 , 4 , Northern Illinois
71 , 33.4 , 33.2 , 5 , 3 , Navy
72 , 33.2 , 27.1 , 5 , 3 , Louisiana Tech
73 , 32.9 , 37.0 , 3 , 6 , Arizona
74 , 32.8 , 26.5 , 6 , 3 , Western Michigan
75 , 32.5 , 27.8 , 4 , 4 , Memphis
76 , 32.1 , 22.8 , 4 , 4 , Marshall
77 , 31.4 , 21.9 , 5 , 3 , Nevada
78 , 31.0 , 28.9 , 4 , 5 , Wyoming
79 , 30.1 , 21.5 , 3 , 5 , Oklahoma St
80 , 29.9 , 23.4 , 5 , 4 , Bowling Green
81 , 29.9 , 34.3 , 2 , 6 , Arkansas
82 , 29.6 , 36.5 , 3 , 6 , Washington St
83 , 29.1 , 26.4 , 3 , 5 , Mississippi
84 , 28.6 , 19.7 , 4 , 5 , Ohio U.
85 , 28.3 , 31.9 , 4 , 4 , Connecticut
86 , 27.9 , 28.8 , 4 , 4 , Alabama-Birmingham
87 , 26.7 , 20.8 , 2 , 7 , Illinois
88 , 26.7 , 29.0 , 3 , 6 , San Diego St
89 , 25.7 , 24.6 , 3 , 4 , Middle Tennessee St
90 , 25.4 , 16.3 , 3 , 6 , Ball St
91 , 25.4 , 22.7 , 3 , 5 , East Carolina
92 , 24.5 , 18.1 , 4 , 5 , Akron
93 , 24.1 , 20.8 , 2 , 6 , Kentucky
94 , 23.5 , 21.3 , 3 , 6 , Eastern Michigan
95 , 22.7 , 14.9 , 4 , 5 , Louisiana-Lafayette
96 , 22.5 , 20.6 , 2 , 6 , Army
97 , 21.6 , 20.0 , 3 , 6 , Hawai`i
98 , 21.4 , 19.8 , 3 , 6 , SMU
99 , 21.3 , 15.1 , 4 , 4 , Arkansas St
100 , 21.2 , 25.5 , 1 , 8 , Washington
101 , 20.9 , 19.4 , 2 , 7 , Mississippi St
102 , 20.5 , 24.1 , 3 , 7 , Air Force
103 , 20.4 , 10.9 , 4 , 5 , Troy
104 , 16.9 , 10.1 , 3 , 5 , Louisiana-Monroe
105 , 15.2 , 14.6 , 2 , 6 , Tulane
106 , 15.0 , 9.2 , 2 , 6 , Utah St
107 , 15.0 , 20.9 , 1 , 7 , Syracuse
108 , 14.8 , 5.1 , 2 , 6 , North Texas
109 , 14.4 , 9.8 , 1 , 9 , Duke
110 , 11.3 , 4.0 , 2 , 5 , Florida Int'l
111 , 10.7 , 8.5 , 2 , 7 , UNLV
112 , 10.4 , 3.0 , 0 , 10 , Temple
113 , 9.0 , 6.5 , 0 , 8 , Rice
114 , 8.8 , 5.6 , 2 , 6 , Idaho
115 , 8.7 , 6.9 , 1 , 8 , Florida Atlantic
116 , 5.8 , 3.4 , 0 , 9 , New Mexico St
117 , 5.6 , 6.5 , 1 , 8 , San Jose St
118 , 4.8 , 7.7 , 1 , 8 , Kent St
119 , 0.0 , 0.0 , 0 , 9 , Buffalo


01 , 34.5 , 25.0 , 6 , 3 , Appalachian St
02 , 33.1 , 29.2 , 8 , 1 , New Hampshire
03 , 32.8 , 27.7 , 7 , 2 , Montana
04 , 27.0 , 25.1 , 7 , 2 , Massachusetts
05 , 27.0 , 15.5 , 7 , 2 , Furman
06 , 26.9 , 17.1 , 6 , 1 , Brown
07 , 26.8 , 21.9 , 7 , 3 , Georgia Southern
08 , 26.0 , 26.0 , 6 , 3 , Cal Poly SLO
09 , 25.3 , 25.8 , 7 , 2 , Texas St-San Marcos
10 , 24.1 , 18.7 , 6 , 3 , Montana St
11 , 22.5 , 11.5 , 6 , 2 , Princeton
12 , 22.2 , 15.6 , 6 , 3 , Richmond
13 , 21.9 , 10.4 , 5 , 3 , Western Carolina
14 , 21.8 , 7.7 , 8 , 1 , Coastal Carolina
15 , 21.5 , 15.4 , 9 , 0 , Hampton
16 , 20.9 , 18.0 , 7 , 2 , Southern Illinois
17 , 20.7 , 19.2 , 6 , 3 , Northern Iowa
18 , 20.5 , 23.1 , 6 , 3 , North Dakota St
19 , 19.9 , 20.1 , 5 , 4 , UC-Davis
20 , 19.2 , 26.3 , 6 , 4 , Illinois St
21 , 18.6 , 17.6 , 7 , 3 , Youngstown St
22 , 18.3 , 15.5 , 6 , 3 , Western Kentucky
23 , 17.9 , 17.2 , 5 , 5 , Portland St
24 , 17.8 , 13.1 , 7 , 2 , Eastern Illinois
25 , 17.3 , 16.9 , 4 , 3 , Nicholls St
26 , 17.1 , 13.7 , 7 , 2 , South Carolina St
27 , 17.0 , 14.6 , 7 , 2 , Lehigh
28 , 16.8 , 1.7 , 5 , 4 , Wofford
29 , 16.5 , 22.0 , 5 , 4 , Eastern Washington
30 , 15.8 , 12.1 , 5 , 4 , Weber St
31 , 15.4 , 5.5 , 4 , 3 , McNeese St
32 , 15.4 , -1.0 , 6 , 4 , Chattanooga
33 , 15.3 , 7.9 , 5 , 3 , Harvard
34 , 15.2 , 20.3 , 5 , 4 , James Madison
35 , 15.0 , 6.1 , 6 , 3 , Colgate
36 , 14.9 , 12.3 , 5 , 4 , Idaho St
37 , 14.1 , 14.2 , 7 , 1 , Grambling St
38 , 14.1 , 14.6 , 5 , 4 , Hofstra
39 , 13.6 , 17.4 , 5 , 4 , William & Mary
40 , 12.8 , 7.9 , 4 , 4 , Northwestern St
41 , 12.2 , 10.4 , 5 , 4 , Eastern Kentucky
42 , 10.3 , 4.4 , 5 , 4 , Stephen F. Austin
43 , 10.2 , 12.5 , 5 , 4 , South Dakota St
44 , 10.1 , 0.1 , 6 , 3 , Lafayette
45 , 9.5 , 2.2 , 6 , 3 , Towson
46 , 9.4 , 8.5 , 5 , 3 , Pennsylvania
47 , 8.9 , 6.9 , 4 , 5 , Delaware
48 , 8.3 , 1.0 , 9 , 0 , St John's MN
49 , 8.2 , 7.1 , 4 , 5 , Rhode Island
50 , 7.6 , 8.9 , 3 , 5 , Sam Houston St
51 , 7.3 , 6.5 , 5 , 4 , Jacksonville St
52 , 7.2 , 2.5 , 4 , 5 , Villanova
53 , 6.0 , 0.9 , 4 , 5 , Maine
54 , 5.7 , 3.9 , 9 , 1 , San Diego
55 , 4.8 , -5.6 , 2 , 7 , The Citadel
56 , 4.5 , -1.4 , 5 , 4 , Delaware St
57 , 4.5 , 2.6 , 4 , 5 , Missouri St
58 , 4.2 , 1.6 , 5 , 4 , Holy Cross
59 , 3.6 , -4.6 , 5 , 4 , Tennessee-Martin
60 , 3.4 , 5.7 , 3 , 5 , SE Louisiana St
61 , 2.9 , 1.5 , 4 , 6 , Western Illinois
62 , 2.4 , 1.8 , 9 , 1 , Dayton
63 , 1.6 , -7.1 , 5 , 4 , Florida A&M
64 , 1.5 , 5.4 , 6 , 3 , Alabama St
65 , 1.4 , -1.6 , 7 , 2 , Alabama A&M
66 , 1.0 , 5.0 , 3 , 4 , Yale
67 , -0.4 , -6.2 , 3 , 6 , Elon
68 , -0.5 , 2.4 , 3 , 5 , Northern Colorado
69 , -1.2 , -0.6 , 6 , 3 , Bethune-Cookman
70 , -2.3 , -12.0 , 5 , 5 , Samford
71 , -2.6 , -3.5 , 2 , 8 , Sacramento St
72 , -3.3 , -0.6 , 2 , 7 , Northern Arizona
73 , -6.3 , -2.4 , 1 , 8 , Northeastern
74 , -6.6 , -14.9 , 8 , 2 , Morehead St
75 , -6.8 , -10.9 , 2 , 6 , Dartmouth
76 , -7.2 , -12.8 , 4 , 5 , Gardner-Webb
77 , -7.5 , -11.8 , 5 , 3 , Alcorn St
78 , -7.6 , -18.9 , 7 , 3 , Central Conn St
79 , -8.9 , -13.1 , 3 , 7 , VMI
80 , -11.0 , -16.2 , 3 , 6 , Tennessee Tech
81 , -11.0 , -9.3 , 5 , 4 , Drake
82 , -11.1 , -12.8 , 1 , 7 , Southern Utah
83 , -11.2 , -18.0 , 6 , 3 , Duquesne
84 , -12.0 , -10.4 , 5 , 4 , Mississippi Valley St
85 , -12.1 , -16.3 , 7 , 2 , Georgetown KY
86 , -12.5 , -15.2 , 4 , 5 , Howard
87 , -12.7 , -18.3 , 5 , 4 , Charleston Southern
88 , -13.3 , -22.7 , 2 , 6 , Columbia
89 , -13.7 , -13.0 , 5 , 4 , Monmouth NJ
90 , -13.8 , -25.1 , 6 , 3 , Marist
91 , -14.1 , -19.3 , 4 , 5 , Albany NY
92 , -14.9 , -9.5 , 3 , 4 , Southern U.
93 , -14.9 , -23.3 , 5 , 4 , Stony Brook
94 , -15.7 , -20.5 , 2 , 7 , Fordham
95 , -17.0 , -14.3 , 1 , 8 , SE Missouri St
96 , -17.1 , -19.2 , 1 , 8 , Liberty
97 , -17.2 , -19.6 , 3 , 7 , North Carolina A&T
98 , -17.3 , -17.9 , 3 , 6 , Norfolk St
99 , -17.6 , -17.7 , 0 , 10 , Indiana St
100 , -19.5 , -23.2 , 2 , 7 , Tennessee St
101 , -19.5 , -20.3 , 1 , 8 , Murray St
102 , -20.3 , -23.9 , 4 , 3 , Jacksonville FL
103 , -22.8 , -18.8 , 2 , 7 , Arkansas-Pine Bluff
104 , -23.2 , -24.9 , 3 , 5 , Prairie View A&M
105 , -23.5 , -25.7 , 1 , 8 , Bucknell
106 , -24.0 , -23.2 , 2 , 7 , Jackson St
107 , -24.7 , -23.4 , 2 , 8 , Morgan St
108 , -25.5 , -21.0 , 1 , 7 , Texas Southern
109 , -25.5 , -32.0 , 5 , 5 , Wagner
110 , -27.3 , -31.5 , 3 , 6 , Sacred Heart
111 , -30.7 , -32.9 , 3 , 6 , Davidson
112 , -32.0 , -32.9 , 3 , 6 , St Francis PA
113 , -34.1 , -29.3 , 2 , 7 , Robert Morris
114 , -38.7 , -45.6 , 3 , 6 , Iona
115 , -39.9 , -48.5 , 2 , 8 , Valparaiso
116 , -41.6 , -50.8 , 2 , 8 , Austin Peay
117 , -43.2 , -55.9 , 2 , 7 , Cornell IA
118 , -43.3 , -47.2 , 0 , 9 , Savannah St
119 , -43.9 , -51.7 , 3 , 7 , La Salle
120 , -48.3 , -55.1 , 1 , 8 , St Peter's
121 , -49.1 , -55.3 , 0 , 10 , Butler

 

[HardcoreRobot]

lol VA Tech above the team they lost to

Texas Fight!

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
lol VA Tech above the team they lost to

Yep, and Miami is ranked above Florida St (the team they lost to).

Florida St. is ranked above NC St. (the team they lost to).

NC St. is ranked above Wake Forest (the team they lost to).

What's wrong with that? Or do you mean that Wake Forest should be ranked above Miami? Plus, my personal favorite Score Rating has Miami ranked above Virginia Tech anyways.

 

[GeneValgene]

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
lol VA Tech above the team they lost to

Texas Fight!

haha what's up with that

hook 'em

 

[HardcoreRobot]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
lol VA Tech above the team they lost to

Yep, and Miami is ranked above Florida St (the team they lost to).

Florida St. is ranked above NC St. (the team they lost to).

NC St. is ranked above Wake Forest (the team they lost to).

What's wrong with that? Or do you mean that Wake Forest should be ranked above Miami? Plus, my personal favorite Score Rating has Miami ranked above Virginia Tech anyways.

if those teams had the same number of losses as the team they lost to i would say there was something wrong with that too

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
if those teams had the same number of losses as the team they lost to i would say there was something wrong with that too

What you want is physically impossible. Teams MUST be ranked above teams that they lost to. There is absolutely no possible way to do it as you want. You very quickly see things like this:

Team A beat B.
Team B beat A. (It is hard to win twice against the same team in the same season).

Or more commonly:

Team A beat B.
Team B beat C.
Team C beat A. (This happens all the time).

How can you possibly do what you propose in either of those common situations? Someone MUST be ranked below the team that beat them. In this current listing (Win rating), 84.7% of teams are ranked above the team they just beat. But, 15.3% are ranked lower. That is just a fact that any ranking system must deal with. Note: the win rating is optimized to maximize the 84.7% number and to minimize the 15.3% number. With the inputs I have, and the formulas I use, this is the best possible result at this point in the season.

 

[KLin]

The day your poll is figured into the BCS is the day I stop watching college football .

 

[Alkaline5]

The fact that the BCS is still in use at all is enough to make me sick. Have you looked at the Billingsley ratings this year?

 

[bay]

Okay, don't get me wrong, I love my badgers. But dear god how are we #10?

 

[slpaulson]

Originally posted by: bay
Okay, don't get me wrong, I love my badgers. But dear god how are we #10?

Beats me

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5
The fact that the BCS is still in use at all is enough to make me sick. Have you looked at the Billingsley ratings this year?

The Billingsley ratings are a worthless pile of crap in my opinion. Have you ever read what goes into that formula? I think the worst part is that last year's ratings have a significant impact on this year's ratings. Billingsley uses last year's results despite the fact that seniors leave, great players are drafted, injuries occur/heal, coaches are hired/fired, game strategies are redone, etc.

For example, last year Tennessee ended at #14 in the Billingsley ratings. The first team that beats Tennessee gets credit for beating an ~#14 team (in this case Florida gets credit for beating #13 Tennessee). Tennessee then had a couple of wins and moved to #9. Georgia gets credit for beating the #9 team in the nation (Tennessee). Alabama gets credit for beating the #19 team (Tennessee). South Carolina gets credit for beating a #28 team (Tennessee). Notre Dame only gets credit for beating a #43 team (Tennessee).

Why should Georgia get credit for beating a team that was obviously well over-rated? Can anyone possibly say that Tennessee is the #9 team in the nation? No. But Georgia gets credit for it. All because Billingsley uses last year's high finish.

There are tons of other major problems with the formula.

 

[bignateyk]

the BCS standings are up... no big suprises:

1) USC
2) Texas
3) Alabama
4) Miami
5) Penn State
6) Virginia Tech
7) LSU
8) OSU
...

As a Penn State fan, I must evaluate our Rose Bowl chances (slim to none, as shown below)


What must happen for PSU to move to rank 2 BCS?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
LSU loses to Alabama ? This will move us ahead of LSU in Harris & USA Today Polls

Alabama loses to Auburn ? This will move us ahead of Alabama

Penn State beats MSU by a large margin ? This will move us to 2nd in computer ranking

Miami loses to GA Tech ? (Very unlikely)

USC loses to either UCLA, Cali, or Fresno (Doubtful, but could happen since all three are decent teams)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My final BCS prediction is:

1) USC
2) Texas
3) Miami
4) PSU
5) LSU

LSU and PSU could be flip-flopped, depending on how badly LSU beats Alabama

Thoughts?

 

[LikeLinus]

Originally posted by: KLin
The day your poll is figured into the BCS is the day I stop watching college football .

No kidding. Only a retard would have Penn State ranked above an Unbeaten and 31 straight weeks at #1 USC. I don't care what team you think is stronger...that team hasn't lost in over two years. A team with 1 loss being above that team?

What a freaking worthless poll.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: LikeLinus
No kidding. Only a retard would have Penn State ranked above an Unbeaten and 31 straight weeks at #1 USC. I don't care what team you think is stronger...that team hasn't lost in over two years. A team with 1 loss being above that team?

What a freaking worthless poll.

Clearly you don't see the Score Rating where USC is #1 and would score more points than any other team in the nation in a head-to-head match-up. It predicts USC to score a field goal more than Texas and a touchdown more than Penn State.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: bignateyk
the BCS standings are up... no big suprises:

1) USC
2) Texas
3) Alabama
4) Miami
5) Penn State
6) Virginia Tech
7) LSU
8) OSU
...

As a Penn State fan, I must evaluate our Rose Bowl chances (slim to none, as shown below)


What must happen for PSU to move to rank 2 BCS?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
LSU loses to Alabama ? This will move us ahead of LSU in Harris & USA Today Polls

Alabama loses to Auburn ? This will move us ahead of Alabama

Penn State beats MSU by a large margin ? This will move us to 2nd in computer ranking

Miami loses to GA Tech ? (Very unlikely)

USC loses to either UCLA, Cali, or Fresno (Doubtful, but could happen since all three are decent teams)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My final BCS prediction is:

1) USC
2) Texas
3) Miami
4) PSU
5) LSU

LSU and PSU could be flip-flopped, depending on how badly LSU beats Alabama

Thoughts?

You left out Texas A&M beating UT. No its by far a longer shot than any of the scenarios you mentioned, but you have to remember, 3 years ago A&M knocked off a #1 OU team. I dont honestly know which A&M team is worse, 2002 or this years.

 

[LikeLinus]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: LikeLinus
No kidding. Only a retard would have Penn State ranked above an Unbeaten and 31 straight weeks at #1 USC. I don't care what team you think is stronger...that team hasn't lost in over two years. A team with 1 loss being above that team?

What a freaking worthless poll.

Clearly you don't see the Score Rating where USC is #1 and would score more points than any other team in the nation in a head-to-head match-up. It predicts USC to score a field goal more than Texas and a touchdown more than Penn State.

Well you edited your post. Clearly you don't have instructions and I'm supposed to understand what exactly?

The Place says Texas 1, PSU 2, USC 3. Is that what place your current poll has them in?

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: bignateyk
LSU loses to Alabama ? This will move us ahead of LSU in Harris & USA Today Polls

Alabama loses to Auburn ? This will move us ahead of Alabama

Penn State beats MSU by a large margin ? This will move us to 2nd in computer ranking

Miami loses to GA Tech ? (Very unlikely)

USC loses to either UCLA, Cali, or Fresno (Doubtful, but could happen since all three are decent teams)

With the computers rightfully disliking LSU this year, I don't think you need to worry about LSU. Possibly LSU beating Alabama would take care of much of the problems.

Basically, you need 3 of the top 4 teams to each lose a game to have a shot. It is possible that one or two will far. I don't see three falling. USC could easilly lose with three difficult games ahead. Alabama could lose with two difficult games ahead. Texas should sail through the regular season. I think Miami will sail through the regular season.

You still have championship games to remember though. Texas in a rematch with Colorado will be a difficult win. Rematches are notoriously difficult.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: LikeLinus
Well you edited your post. Clearly you don't have instructions and I'm supposed to understand what exactly?

The Place says Texas 1, PSU 2, USC 3. Is that what place your current poll has them in?

Edited which post? I edit most posts. I'm sorry I don't have instructions, most of the viewers of my results have been watching them for years. Here is a brief description:

The Score Rating is the best predictor of next week's games. It predicts who will win and by how many points. It uses strength of schedule, number of wins/losses, and margin of victory to best determine the scores of the games.

The Win Rating uses the same data but is reoptimized to have the most teams ranked ahead of teams that they beat. It is a worse predictor of scores and I think it is roughly the same at predicting winners of next week's games. I put in the Win Rating about 2 years ago since Anandtech posters complained so much about teams being ranked ahead of teams that just beat them. I personally don't use it at all. It is just to satisfy many other poster's complaints.

You can copy my first post and paste it into Excel or another spreadsheet. Then resort it for the Score Ratings. You get for the top 10:
Place, Team name, W, L, Score Rating
01, Southern Cal, 9, 0, 73
02, Texas, 9, 0, 70.5
03, Penn State, 9, 1, 66.6
04, Ohio State, 7, 2, 64.9
05, Miami FL, 7, 1, 62.5
06, Notre Dame, 6, 2, 62.3
07, Virginia Tech, 8, 1, 61.6
08, Oregon, 8, 1, 56.9
09, Michigan, 6, 3, 55.9
10, LSU, 7, 1, 55.2

 

[poopaskoopa]

Sweet NCSU moved up 16 spots for beating FSU!

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: dullard

You still have championship games to remember though. Texas in a rematch with Colorado will be a difficult win. Rematches are notoriously difficult.

rematches are notoriously difficult because the teams that rematch are usually both very good. the only times you get rematches are in championship games and bowl games. obviously, championship games pit the best team from each respective division and bowl games usually aren't complete mismatches.

a very partisan home crowd for UT in houston combined with a good, but not great, colorado team will make for the 3rd loss of the year for colorado.

at least your rankings have colorado and nd rated about where they belong.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
if those teams had the same number of losses as the team they lost to i would say there was something wrong with that too

the better team doesn't always win. they'd have to for rankings to be 100% rational.



billingsley should be thrown out of the BCS. the computers are supposed to balance out the fanboism and the inherent 'what did you do last year/how do we expect you to do this year' of the people polls. yes, the people can 'watch' football, if you consider seeing a 30 second highlight reel 'watching,' but where you start on the AP poll has a lot to do with how people perceive teams that might beat you and where you end up.


dullard - how do you collapse wins by top teams over bottom 50 or bottom 70 teams?

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
dullard - how do you collapse wins by top teams over bottom 50 or bottom 70 teams?

As it is, a win is a win is a win. Same goes for losses. However, strength of schedule is dramatically affected. The rating formula looks like this:

Rating = a*(Rating of Team played) + b*(Score Difference) + c*(Number of Wins) - d*(Number of losses + 1)

Where a, b, c, and d are optimization factors. Suppose a = 1, b = 0.916, c = 0.5, and d = 0.5 (these were basicaly the numbers used this week in the score rating).

Suppose a new team came along and played Buffalo (rated 0 in both ratings). Suppose this team beats Buffalo by 10 points. Then this new team is rated as: 1*0 + 0.916*10 + 0.5*1 - 0.5*0 = 9.66. This new team would be ranked between Duke (Score Rating 9.8) and Utah St (9.2).

But suppose instead that new team had beaten Clemson by 10. The rating would be 1*45.1 + 0.916*10 + 0.5*1 - 0.5*0 = 54.76. This would put them right between LSU (Score Rating 55.2) and Alabama (54.1).

In each case, the win added 0.5 points to the rating. However, the fact that the strength of schedule was so different, gave that team a completely different rating. SOS is by far the most important factor.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
lol VA Tech above the team they lost to

You might like these ratings: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

The formula minimizes the number ranking violations. It has about 1/3 as many as Dullards.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

Originally posted by: HardcoreRobot
lol VA Tech above the team they lost to

You might like these ratings: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

The formula minimizes the number ranking violations. It has about 1/3 as many as Dullards.

1 Texas
2 Southern Cal
3 Penn State
4 Ohio State
5 Notre Dame
6 Texas Tech
7 Florida St
8 Miami FL
9 Virginia Tech
10 Colorado
11 Wisconsin
12 LSU
13 Oregon
14 TCU
15 Minnesota
16 Michigan
17 Georgia Tech
18 Auburn
19 West Virginia
20 South Florida
21 Fresno St
22 Louisville
23 UCLA
24 Alabama
25 Oklahoma

i think this just shows why such a poll, while neat to look at, has low real world use.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
You might like these ratings: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

The formula minimizes the number ranking violations. It has about 1/3 as many as Dullards.

Thanks for the link. I have thought about such a calculation myself but never attempted to do it. Now I don't have to.

"However, there are literally trillions of different rankings at any given point in time that would yield the same minimum number of violations; the ranking shown is only one of those."

I'd be interested to read how this specific list was chosen. I'll have to find a copy of the Interfaces articles.