Dullard's College Football - Week 11, 2006

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kalster

Diamond Member
Jul 23, 2002
7,355
6
81
Originally posted by: Thraxen
Originally posted by: Mill
I don't think USC deserves 2nd place, but I see them ahead of any one loss team if they win out. Except for maybe Michigan if they lose to OSU. I think the four best teams are OSU, USC, Michgan, and Florida.

Florida is going down to Arkansas. Also, did you see the Kansas State and Arizona fans rush the field this weekend?

Its fun to see fans rush the field, but when its your team on the loosing end, it hurts
seeing the cal fans rush the field down in berkeley in 2003 and oregon state fans few weeks back was painful
 

Thraxen

Diamond Member
Dec 3, 2001
4,683
1
81
Originally posted by: kalster
Its fun to see fans rush the field, but when its your team on the loosing end, it hurts
seeing the cal fans rush the field down in berkeley in 2003 and oregon state fans few weeks back was painful

Heh.. did you miss the debate at the end of last week? It started after the Rutgers victory when Mill stated that fans of big name schools didn't rush the field after a big victories. IMO, if your student section has any life to it your fans will rush the field at some point at any school.
 

thraashman

Lifer
Apr 10, 2000
11,112
1,587
126
I wish the Michigan/OSU game this weekend was at the big house. How much cooler could the biggest rivalry in the nation be if it also took place in the biggest stadium in the nation while also being between the two highest ranked teams in the nation who both have significant BCS leads over number 3. Also there's a small chance I could sweet talk a friend into tickets if it were at Michigan.
 

kalster

Diamond Member
Jul 23, 2002
7,355
6
81
Originally posted by: Thraxen
Originally posted by: kalster
Its fun to see fans rush the field, but when its your team on the loosing end, it hurts
seeing the cal fans rush the field down in berkeley in 2003 and oregon state fans few weeks back was painful

Heh.. did you miss the debate at the end of last week? It started after the Rutgers victory when Mill stated that fans of big name schools didn't rush the field after a big victories. IMO, if your student section has any life to it your fans will rush the field at some point at any school.

yeh, its even more fun when fans think the game is over and rush the field, but their team ends up loosing the game

cal/stanford game or the sc/notre dame game last year
 

mpitts

Lifer
Jun 9, 2000
14,732
1
81
Originally posted by: Thraxen
Originally posted by: kalster
Its fun to see fans rush the field, but when its your team on the loosing end, it hurts
seeing the cal fans rush the field down in berkeley in 2003 and oregon state fans few weeks back was painful

Heh.. did you miss the debate at the end of last week? It started after the Rutgers victory when Mill stated that fans of big name schools didn't rush the field after a big victories. IMO, if your student section has any life to it your fans will rush the field at some point at any school.

I am not trying to defend Mill, but I believe what he said is that the fans of teams that have a history of winning do not rush the field.

Kansas State and Arizona State don't win games against teams in the top 10 very often. If USC beats Notre Dame, their fans are not going to rush the field.

It's about expectation as well as the level of success that a program has had in recent years.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
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Originally posted by: mpitts
Originally posted by: Thraxen
Originally posted by: kalster
Its fun to see fans rush the field, but when its your team on the loosing end, it hurts
seeing the cal fans rush the field down in berkeley in 2003 and oregon state fans few weeks back was painful

Heh.. did you miss the debate at the end of last week? It started after the Rutgers victory when Mill stated that fans of big name schools didn't rush the field after a big victories. IMO, if your student section has any life to it your fans will rush the field at some point at any school.

I am not trying to defend Mill, but I believe what he said is that the fans of teams that have a history of winning do not rush the field.

Kansas State and Arizona State don't win games against teams in the top 10 very often. If USC beats Notre Dame, their fans are not going to rush the field.

It's about expectation as well as the level of success that a program has had in recent years.
I think what he didn't realize is that most schools rushed their homefield after their first major top 5 win ever. Whether it was in 1955, 1984, or 2006 it doesn't matter nor does it take away from the talent of their team that year if they were ranked as well. Just because a team that did it in 1955 doesn't do it now doesn't mean they are better than the team who just did it.
 

sciencewhiz

Diamond Member
Jun 30, 2000
5,886
8
81
Here are some comparisons between both of Dullard's computer ratings and Sagarin's computer, based on predictions of games this weekend, taking into account 3 points of home field advantage.


Maryland at Boston College. Dullard, BC by 5 to 13. Sagarin, BC by 9
Michigan at Ohio State. Dullard, Michigan by 1 to Ohio State by 7. Sagarin, Ohio State by 7
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest. Dullard, VT by 1 to 2. Sagarin, Even
California at USC. Dullard, USC by 9 to 6. Sagarin, USC by 6
 

jlbenedict

Banned
Jul 10, 2005
3,724
0
0
Darren McFadden is moving up the Heisman charts!
Just hope the Hogs aren't overlooking Miss. St. and looking forward to LSU
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
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Originally posted by: jlbenedict
Darren McFadden is moving up the Heisman charts!
Just hope the Hogs aren't overlooking Miss. St. and looking forward to LSU
True that, McFadden is electrifying. LSU would love to spoil Ark's chances at a NC bid, and Miss St has a very good coach rebuilding that program - don't underestimate them.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,196
4,869
126
Originally posted by: nycxandy
You ever do rankings for pro football?
There is no need for rankings in just about any other sporting event. College football is unique to sports. In college football you are expected to find the best team out of ~119 teams with only 11-12 pieces of data per team. There just isn't enough data to accomplish that task. Thus we end up with endless debates over college football. Should 5-5 UTEP be ranked higher or lower than 5-5 Northern Illinois? They have the same overall wins and losses and they haven't played each other this year (if ever?). So who is better? Have you honestly watched many of those 20 games that UTEP and Northern Illinois played? Probably not. And if you are a fluke who did watch them, most of the rest of us didn't. Thus there will be endless debates between uninformed people with insufficient data.

My computer program (and others) are thus the only way to objectively attempt to get a reasonable order for the 119 teams with just 11-12 pieces of data each.

The best way to rank teams is to have all 119 teams play each other once. Then whomever has the most wins is the best. Clearly with the intensely physically demanding football game, that isn't possible (all players would leave each season with multiple broken bones). With baseball, basketball, or most other sports it could be done. Thus, computer rankings aren't really needed.

Pro football has 1/4th the number of teams AND has more games each. Thus, there is sufficient data to select the top team. Plus, I've never been able to get into pro football.
 

jlbenedict

Banned
Jul 10, 2005
3,724
0
0
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: jlbenedict
Darren McFadden is moving up the Heisman charts!
Just hope the Hogs aren't overlooking Miss. St. and looking forward to LSU
True that, McFadden is electrifying. LSU would love to spoil Ark's chances at a NC bid, and Miss St has a very good coach rebuilding that program - don't underestimate them.


Arkansas is also young; I'm sure they'll recieve preseason recognition next year early on. The offensive line has always been a strong point at Arkansas. The defense has exceeded my expectations this year though. Houston is damn near a shut-down corner. Constantly he goes up against the SEC's best wide outs and holds his own; is very physical off the line.

Miss. St. has always been one of the Hog's rivals. They always come to play; and will definately be head-hunting for McFadden this weekend. Hopefully my Hogs can get a decent lead, and rest him during the second half of the game.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
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Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Oh baby, do my eyes deceive me?? Michigan vs WVU projected for the Rose Bowl by Ivan Maisel? That would be a dream matchup, best run D vs best running offense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844

Did WVU beat Louisville the other week? I didn't catch the game...
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

 

Feldenak

Lifer
Jan 31, 2003
14,090
2
81
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: jlbenedict
Darren McFadden is moving up the Heisman charts!
Just hope the Hogs aren't overlooking Miss. St. and looking forward to LSU
True that, McFadden is electrifying. LSU would love to spoil Ark's chances at a NC bid, and Miss St has a very good coach rebuilding that program - don't underestimate them.

Miss. State is still horrid. Another couple years and Croom might have something but right now they are still a horrid team.
 

Feldenak

Lifer
Jan 31, 2003
14,090
2
81
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Oh baby, do my eyes deceive me?? Michigan vs WVU projected for the Rose Bowl by Ivan Maisel? That would be a dream matchup, best run D vs best running offense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844

Did WVU beat Louisville the other week? I didn't catch the game...
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

Because Rutgers is such the offensive powerhouse.
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
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My questions were what happens if:

Cal beats USC (Answered...)
Mich beats OSU (Answered)
Rutgers beats WVU (They almost have to play for the title, right?)
Arkansas beats LSU (They'd jump, but would they pass Florida?)

Also, subjectively, how many BCS teams do you predict will have two losses?

Oh, and in case no one noticed, the BCS computers have Rutgers ahead of Ohio State :Q
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
81
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Oh baby, do my eyes deceive me?? Michigan vs WVU projected for the Rose Bowl by Ivan Maisel? That would be a dream matchup, best run D vs best running offense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844

Did WVU beat Louisville the other week? I didn't catch the game...
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

Because Rutgers is such the offensive powerhouse.

Meh...because the Big East is an island, I think we have no idea. For one, it's silly that old sp33d keeps saying that WVU has the "best running offense," but it's equally silly to blow Rutgers off when, so far, they've beaten all comers.

If Rutgers goes undefeated, even if they don't play for the national championship, they'll do no worse than 4th...and considering how tightly packed the top two each of the SEC, Big 10, and USC (Xor ND if they win) will be, we'll all get to see how real they are.
 

Thraxen

Diamond Member
Dec 3, 2001
4,683
1
81
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

Well, we'll see how they do against Rutgers. Rutgers held Louisville, whom WV never slowed down, to zero points in the second half. Most of Rutgers games have ended with them scoring in the 20's, so I wouldn't say that it really means anything that Rutgers only scored 20 against Pitt. Sure, it was their lowest output of the season, but NC held them to 21, South Florida held them to 22, etc... West Virginia barely appears to have a defense at all, so I think Rutgers will get their points against them. Rutgers may be the only team with a good defense WV will have faced this year, so that game should tell us more about WVs offense then their previous games this year.
 

Feldenak

Lifer
Jan 31, 2003
14,090
2
81
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Oh baby, do my eyes deceive me?? Michigan vs WVU projected for the Rose Bowl by Ivan Maisel? That would be a dream matchup, best run D vs best running offense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844

Did WVU beat Louisville the other week? I didn't catch the game...
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

Because Rutgers is such the offensive powerhouse.

Meh...because the Big East is an island, I think we have no idea. For one, it's silly that old sp33d keeps saying that WVU has the "best running offense," but it's equally silly to blow Rutgers off when, so far, they've beaten all comers.

If Rutgers goes undefeated, even if they don't play for the national championship, they'll do no worse than 4th...and considering how tightly packed the top two each of the SEC, Big 10, and USC (Xor ND if they win) will be, we'll all get to see how real they are.

I said nothing about Rutgers' record. I'm attacking his claim of "holding" Rutgers to 20 points. Rutgers isn't exactly an an explosive offense. Throwing out Rutgers' score of 56 against a I-AA team, their avg. PPG is ~25.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,196
4,869
126
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Rutgers beats WVU (They almost have to play for the title, right?)

Oh, and in case no one noticed, the BCS computers have Rutgers ahead of Ohio State :Q
I still don't think the voters will vote them high enough. Rutgers will get a very good BCS game if they beat WVU. But that'll be it.

As for the BCS, that is why you MUST consider score. Throw out scores and you get silly things like Rutgers > OSU at this point in the season. Sure if Rutgers plays and beats OSU, then you can rank them ahead. But not yet.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
143
106
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Oh baby, do my eyes deceive me?? Michigan vs WVU projected for the Rose Bowl by Ivan Maisel? That would be a dream matchup, best run D vs best running offense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844

Did WVU beat Louisville the other week? I didn't catch the game...
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

Because Rutgers is such the offensive powerhouse.

Meh...because the Big East is an island, I think we have no idea. For one, it's silly that old sp33d keeps saying that WVU has the "best running offense," but it's equally silly to blow Rutgers off when, so far, they've beaten all comers.

If Rutgers goes undefeated, even if they don't play for the national championship, they'll do no worse than 4th...and considering how tightly packed the top two each of the SEC, Big 10, and USC (Xor ND if they win) will be, we'll all get to see how real they are.

I said nothing about Rutgers' record. I'm attacking his claim of "holding" Rutgers to 20 points. Rutgers isn't exactly an an explosive offense. Throwing out Rutgers' score of 56 against a I-AA team, they're avg. PPG is ~25.
Maybe you've heard of this Heisman hopeful RB named... Ray Rice. You know, 22 for 131 yards vs UL? Not explosive? Maybe you've never seen Rice play. Sure he doesn't have exactly the acceleration of Slaton, but he still runs a 4.4 40 and has ripped off runs of 63, 54, and 44 this year. Hence, yes he turns RU into an explosive offense when he gets enough touches.

In any case, WVU matches up well vs RU because they actually have decent run stoppers. Consider this: Rutgers gave up 67 yards on 26 rushes vs Pitt, WVU gave up -1 on 19 rushes vs Pitt. Vs Louisville: Rutgers gave up 103 yards on 39 rushes, WVU gave up 114 on 32. Both have decent run defenses. Rutgers has a better secondary, WVU is more dangerous on offense. The main questions will be: Can Teel light up the WVU secondary at will like Brohm did? Will RU be able to hold White/Slaton and WVU to under 25 points? Will RU maintain their composure playing at hostile Mountaineer Field?
 

Feldenak

Lifer
Jan 31, 2003
14,090
2
81
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Oh baby, do my eyes deceive me?? Michigan vs WVU projected for the Rose Bowl by Ivan Maisel? That would be a dream matchup, best run D vs best running offense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844

Did WVU beat Louisville the other week? I didn't catch the game...
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

Because Rutgers is such the offensive powerhouse.

Meh...because the Big East is an island, I think we have no idea. For one, it's silly that old sp33d keeps saying that WVU has the "best running offense," but it's equally silly to blow Rutgers off when, so far, they've beaten all comers.

If Rutgers goes undefeated, even if they don't play for the national championship, they'll do no worse than 4th...and considering how tightly packed the top two each of the SEC, Big 10, and USC (Xor ND if they win) will be, we'll all get to see how real they are.

I said nothing about Rutgers' record. I'm attacking his claim of "holding" Rutgers to 20 points. Rutgers isn't exactly an an explosive offense. Throwing out Rutgers' score of 56 against a I-AA team, their avg. PPG is ~25.
Maybe you've heard of this Heisman hopeful RB named... Ray Rice. You know, 22 for 131 yards vs UL? Not explosive? Maybe you've never seen Rice play. Sure he doesn't have exactly the acceleration of Slaton, but he still runs a 4.4 40 and has ripped off runs of 63, 54, and 44 this year. Hence, yes he turns RU into an explosive offense when he gets enough touches.

In any case, WVU matches up well vs RU because they actually have decent run stoppers. Consider this: Rutgers gave up 67 yards on 26 rushes vs Pitt, WVU gave up -1 on 19 rushes vs Pitt. Vs Louisville: Rutgers gave up 103 yards on 39 rushes, WVU gave up 114 on 32. Both have decent run defenses. Rutgers has a better secondary, WVU is more dangerous on offense. The main questions will be: Can Teel light up the WVU secondary at will like Brohm did? Will RU be able to hold White/Slaton and WVU to under 25 points? Will RU maintain their composure playing at hostile Mountaineer Field?

An average of ~25 PPG is not an explosive offense.
 

b0mbrman

Lifer
Jun 1, 2001
29,470
1
81
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Oh baby, do my eyes deceive me?? Michigan vs WVU projected for the Rose Bowl by Ivan Maisel? That would be a dream matchup, best run D vs best running offense.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2627844

Did WVU beat Louisville the other week? I didn't catch the game...
No, but WVU still has a better chance than Notre Dame of making the Rose Bowl if Michigan loses Saturday (and assuming WVU wins the Big East over Rutgers). If you watched the Backyard Brawl last night vs Pitt you know what WVU can do to a halfway decent defense like Pitt's (only allowed 20 points vs Rutgers). Slaton and White each rushed for over 200 yards, and White also threw for over 200. White = next M.Vick in college football.

Because Rutgers is such the offensive powerhouse.

Meh...because the Big East is an island, I think we have no idea. For one, it's silly that old sp33d keeps saying that WVU has the "best running offense," but it's equally silly to blow Rutgers off when, so far, they've beaten all comers.

If Rutgers goes undefeated, even if they don't play for the national championship, they'll do no worse than 4th...and considering how tightly packed the top two each of the SEC, Big 10, and USC (Xor ND if they win) will be, we'll all get to see how real they are.

I said nothing about Rutgers' record. I'm attacking his claim of "holding" Rutgers to 20 points. Rutgers isn't exactly an an explosive offense. Throwing out Rutgers' score of 56 against a I-AA team, they're avg. PPG is ~25.

Ah, then I concur
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
143
106
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Rutgers beats WVU (They almost have to play for the title, right?)

Oh, and in case no one noticed, the BCS computers have Rutgers ahead of Ohio State :Q
I still don't think the voters will vote them high enough. Rutgers will get a very good BCS game if they beat WVU. But that'll be it.

As for the BCS, that is why you MUST consider score. Throw out scores and you get silly things like Rutgers > OSU at this point in the season. Sure if Rutgers plays and beats OSU, then you can rank them ahead. But not yet.
How do you explain the Illinois games for RU and OSU then? You just said "scores" must be considered. ;)

And I don't think the media will have a hard time jumping on the Cinderella story of RU if they can beat WVU decisively on the road. Hell OSU alumn Chris Spielman was just on ESPN radio and said he thinks RU should be in the NC game if they go undefeated. Most media are waiting for the big game tomorrow before giving opinions. A decisive win for either OSU or Mich will give the RU discussion new life and squash talks of a rematch. A back and forth heavyweight bout that comes down to the last score will probably solidify a rematch.