Dullard's College Football Ratings - Week 11

[dullard]

I don't think much of this should come as a surprize. Things are calming down as the season comes towards the end. There were a few upsets and those teams jumped - but the rest stayed pretty close to where they were last week. It does look like a very close battle for #2 in my computer. USC, FSU, and LSU are the only teams with a chance to remain in #2 at the end of the season. Even one loss to Oklahoma would likely not be enough to drop them from #1. The other one loss teams (VT, Miami, etc) are also too far back to have a chance.

Place / Rating / SOS Rank / Team
1 / 145.6 / 18 / Oklahoma
2 / 138.2 / 25 / Southern California
3 / 138.0 / 26 / Florida St.
4 / 136.9 / 59 / LSU
5 / 133.8 / 66 / Virginia Tech
6 / 132.8 / 20 / Miami Florida
7 / 132.6 / 46 / Michigan
8 / 132.2 / 14 / Georgia
9 / 130.6 / 82 / Minnesota
10 / 130.2 / 48 / Texas
11 / 129.9 / 64 / Kansas St.
12 / 129.5 / 28 / Iowa
13 / 128.8 / 32 / Nebraska
14 / 128.1 / 86 / Miami Ohio
15 / 127.9 / 42 / Oklahoma St.
16 / 127.2 / 30 / Ohio St.
17 / 127.0 / 6 / Arkansas
18 / 126.8 / 100 / Boise St.
19 / 126.4 / 39 / Michigan St.
20 / 126.3 / 35 / Purdue
21 / 126.2 / 10 / Florida
22 / 125.5 / 27 / Auburn
23 / 125.4 / 54 / Washington St.
24 / 124.3 / 57 / Mississippi
25 / 124.0 / 11 / Tennessee
26 / 123.3 / 74 / Pittsburgh
27 / 123.3 / 36 / Utah
28 / 122.6 / 62 / Missouri
29 / 121.9 / 80 / Maryland
30 / 121.6 / 13 / California
31 / 121.3 / 38 / Texas Tech
32 / 120.9 / 58 / Air Force
33 / 120.8 / 68 / Oregon St.
34 / 120.5 / 24 / Wake Forest
35 / 120.3 / 7 / Georgia Tech
36 / 120.2 / 51 / Virginia
37 / 120.0 / 61 / North Carolina St.
38 / 119.9 / 37 / Colorado St.
39 / 119.6 / 96 / Northern Illinois
40 / 119.5 / 40 / West Virginia
41 / 119.5 / 16 / South Carolina
42 / 119.2 / 3 / Alabama
43 / 118.7 / 113 / Bowling Green
44 / 118.3 / 47 / Wisconsin
45 / 118.3 / 111 / Louisville
46 / 117.4 / 50 / Washington
47 / 117.0 / 81 / New Mexico
48 / 116.9 / 34 / UCLA
49 / 116.4 / 31 / Boston College
50 / 116.3 / 107 / TCU
51 / 115.9 / 52 / Syracuse
52 / 115.3 / 53 / Southern Miss
53 / 115.2 / 33 / Clemson
54 / 114.9 / 63 / Kansas
55 / 114.1 / 75 / North Texas
56 / 114.1 / 108 / Memphis
57 / 114.1 / 72 / Kentucky
58 / 113.1 / 102 / Marshall
59 / 113.1 / 29 / Wyoming
60 / 112.8 / 8 / Penn St.
61 / 112.8 / 99 / Connecticut
62 / 112.1 / 43 / Oregon
63 / 111.7 / 45 / UNLV
64 / 111.6 / 21 / Arizona St.
65 / 111.2 / 1 / Notre Dame
66 / 111.1 / 65 / Rutgers
67 / 110.8 / 12 / Northwestern
68 / 110.5 / 115 / Navy
69 / 110.1 / 17 / Texas A&M
70 / 110.0 / 22 / Stanford
71 / 110.0 / 103 / Hawaii
72 / 109.5 / 91 / Cincinnati
73 / 109.4 / 98 / Tulsa
74 / 109.3 / 2 / Colorado
75 / 108.9 / 78 / San Diego St.
76 / 108.8 / 9 / Brigham Young
77 / 108.6 / 73 / UAB
78 / 108.5 / 116 / Toledo
79 / 107.6 / 109 / South Florida
80 / 107.1 / 56 / Louisiana Tech
81 / 106.5 / 67 / Fresno St.
82 / 106.5 / 4 / Iowa St.
83 / 105.3 / 101 / Houston
84 / 104.1 / 106 / Nevada
85 / 103.8 / 112 / Akron
86 / 103.7 / 69 / Utah St.
87 / 102.9 / 79 / Ball St.
88 / 101.1 / 88 / Western Michigan
89 / 100.9 / 55 / Vanderbilt
90 / 100.5 / 49 / Mississippi St.
91 / 100.4 / 70 / Troy St.
92 / 100.1 / 85 / Middle Tennessee
93 / 100.0 / 19 / North Carolina
094 / 99.4 / 5 / Illinois
095 / 99.3 / 83 / Kent St.
096 / 99.0 / 44 / Temple
097 / 98.6 / 41 / Duke
098 / 97.4 / 97 / Ohio
099 / 96.9 / 15 / Arizona
100 / 96.8 / 89 / Tulane
101 / 96.8 / 23 / Indiana
102 / 96.4 / 95 / San Jose St.
103 / 96.4 / 76 / Baylor
104 / 94.6 / 94 / UCF
105 / 93.8 / 114 / New Mexico St.
106 / 93.3 / 84 / Idaho
107 / 93.0 / 105 / Central Michigan
108 / 92.6 / 90 / Rice
109 / 91.2 / 71 / Louisiana-Lafayette
110 / 91.1 / 117 / Arkansas St.
111 / 89.8 / 60 / East Carolina
112 / 88.4 / 93 / Louisiana Monroe
113 / 87.0 / 87 / SMU
114 / 86.7 / 77 / Buffalo
115 / 86.1 / 110 / UTEP
116 / 85.6 / 92 / Army
117 / 81.1 / 104 / Eastern Michigan

 

[Saulbadguy]

according to the system, how will K-State fair @Nebraska?

 

[Ogg]

04 136.9 LSU

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Saulbadguy
according to the system, how will K-State fair @Nebraska?

According to the gambling system, or according to my program? I wasn't sure what one you were asking. I don't watch the gambling predictions so I cannot answer the first.

According to my program, K State would win by 1 point on a neutral field (just subtract the two ratings). Of course this isn't played on a neutral field - it is played on a field which is probably one of the biggest home field advantages of any team anywhere. So I'd add 7 points to Nebraska and say Nebraska by 6. I'll let you decide if you think that is a fair home field advantage to give Nebraska.

Originally posted by: awg
04 136.9 LSU

Last week LSU and FSU were tied for 3rd. This week FSU pulled ahead a little.

 

[Izzo]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Saulbadguy
according to the system, how will K-State fair @Nebraska?

According to the gambling system, or according to my program? I wasn't sure what one you were asking. I don't watch the gambling predictions so I cannot answer the first.

According to my program, K State would win by 1 point on a neutral field (just subtract the two ratings). Of course this isn't played on a neutral field - it is played on a field which is probably one of the biggest home field advantages of any team anywhere. So I'd add 7 points to Nebraska and say Nebraska by 6. I'll let you decide if you think that is a fair home field advantage to give Nebraska.

I'm not sure about being able to subtract points to determine a winner. MSU beat both Minnesota and Iowa but is ranked lower (which they probably should be). Plus Minnesota had the home field advantage. (But college football is far from an exact science)

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Izzo
I'm not sure about being able to subtract points to determine a winner. MSU beat both Minnesota and Iowa but is ranked lower (which they probably should be). Plus Minnesota had the home field advantage. (But college football is far from an exact science)

The fun part of football is that it is so unpredictable - too few games and too much variance between games. Teams will always be ranked higher than other teams that they lost to. But my whole program is based on predicting scores. For this week 11 rating it looked at the data from weeks 1-10 and determines how to weight the data I feed it (mostly # of losses, strength of schedule, and margin of victory) to best predict the scores that we just had in week 11. Once it predicts the optimum combination that had the predicted scores (by subtracting the ratings) closest to the actual week 11 score, it uses that same optimization with data from weeks 1-11 to give the best possible prediction of week 12's scores. Of course we won't know until next week how the teams do in week 12, but this is the closest I can come up with given the data I have. My average weekly error generally is between 8 and 11 points - with 10 points quite common. The majority of games it is within 5 points of the correct score but every once in a while it is way off on a prediction and that screws up the average.

 

[fjorner]

Nobody's complaining about Matt Mauck now...

If LSU wins out, that means they will have beaten two more top 25 teams and whoever comes out of the SEC East: Georgia, Tennessee or Florida, which means even more quality points.

If LSU wins out, it'll be hard to keep them out of the national championship game.

 

[fjorner]

also... curious... how is Bowling Green all the way down to 43?

 

[Balt]

When will they officially update the BCS? 😕

Edit: I've also been a bit surprised at how USC is ranked in the BCS. The BCS takes the records of the team(s) you've lost to and calculates them in. USC lost to a team that is
5-5 and they are still ranked in the top 5 in the BCS as well as every other poll. 😕

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: Balt
When will they officially update the BCS? 😕

Edit: I've also been a bit surprised at how USC is ranked in the BCS. The BCS takes the records of the team(s) you've lost to and calculates them in. USC lost to a team that is
5-5 and they are still ranked in the top 5 in the BCS as well as every other poll. 😕

It comes out sometime this afternoon, IIRC

 

[shiner]

USC, FSU, LSU....doesn't matter. The Sooners own them all.

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: shinerburke
USC, FSU, LSU....doesn't matter. The Sooners own them all.

People from Miami said that last year.... and pride goeth before the fall

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: shinerburke
USC, FSU, LSU....doesn't matter. The Sooners own them all.

People from Miami said that last year.... and pride goeth before the fall

I'm not sure what a Nazi war criminal has to do with college football....

Anyway....OU will kick the sh1t out of whoever they face in the Sugar Bowl.

 

[Saulbadguy]

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: shinerburke
USC, FSU, LSU....doesn't matter. The Sooners own them all.

People from Miami said that last year.... and pride goeth before the fall

I'm not sure what a Nazi war criminal has to do with college football....

Anyway....OU will kick the sh1t out of whoever they face in the Sugar Bowl.

I think VT could beat OU, if they played them.

 

[Izzo]

Originally posted by: dullard
The fun part of football is that it is so unpredictable - too few games and too much variance between games. Teams will always be ranked higher than other teams that they lost to. But my whole program is based on predicting scores. For this week 11 rating it looked at the data from weeks 1-10 and determines how to weight the data I feed it (mostly # of losses, strength of schedule, and margin of victory) to best predict the scores that we just had in week 11. Once it predicts the optimum combination that had the predicted scores (by subtracting the ratings) closest to the actual week 11 score, it uses that same optimization with data from weeks 1-11 to give the best possible prediction of week 12's scores. Of course we won't know until next week how the teams do in week 12, but this is the closest I can come up with given the data I have. My average weekly error generally is between 8 and 11 points - with 10 points quite common. The majority of games it is within 5 points of the correct score but every once in a while it is way off on a prediction and that screws up the average.

Do you keep track of your program's record for the past 3 weeks (wins vs. losses, regardless of the error in points). Can you tell that the more games that are played, the better your program gets?

BTW, I think computer averages are good for the BCS. I think it's extremely absurd on how you are punished in the media and AP poll for losing late in the season, and seemingly rewarded for losing early. Oklahoma can play awesome the whole year, then lose in the conference championship team vs. a great opponent and they will inevitably fall and get replaced with a team that may have stumbled early against an easy opponent. (*cough* USC *cough*)

 

[pecel]

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: shinerburke
USC, FSU, LSU....doesn't matter. The Sooners own them all.

People from Miami said that last year.... and pride goeth before the fall

I'm not sure what a Nazi war criminal has to do with college football....

Anyway....OU will kick the sh1t out of whoever they face in the Sugar Bowl.

BOOMER SOONER

Watch out what you're talking about OU, or u will suffer like OSU (Miles is stupid)

 

[Balt]

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Mookow

Originally posted by: shinerburke
USC, FSU, LSU....doesn't matter. The Sooners own them all.

People from Miami said that last year.... and pride goeth before the fall

I'm not sure what a Nazi war criminal has to do with college football....

Anyway....OU will kick the sh1t out of whoever they face in the Sugar Bowl.

Eh, I don't really think so. I think OU's schedule has not been as tough as some of the other teams in the top 5. Thus, when they finally play a team that is ranked better than UT or OSU, they might be in for a bit of a surprise.

Not saying that they won't win the Sugar Bowl, but I am saying they haven't faced a 'real' test yet. Thus it is ridiculous to believe that just because they've blown lesser teams out of the water, they will do the same to anyone else.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: fjorner
Nobody's complaining about Matt Mauck now...

If LSU wins out, that means they will have beaten two more top 25 teams and whoever comes out of the SEC East: Georgia, Tennessee or Florida, which means even more quality points.

If LSU wins out, it'll be hard to keep them out of the national championship game.

Mississippi is barely ranked in the to 25, and won't be if they lose to LSU. Neither Arkansas nor Alabama are ranked in the top 25, and neither have a chance if they lose to LSU. LSU's SOS is the worst of the one loss teams because they've played 3 good teams (Georgia, Florida, Auburn), one or two average teams, and a bunch of bad teams.

LSU would need to move up in the polls quite a bit for them to have a chance (which means they need to win the 3 remaining games and the championship very impressively, and have a team or two above them lose). If all they do is win, they have little chance.


Dullard,

Do you have an easy way to enter in the results from a week's games, or do you manually type everything in?

 

[tigerbait]

Originally posted by: fjorner
Nobody's complaining about Matt Mauck now...

If LSU wins out, that means they will have beaten two more top 25 teams and whoever comes out of the SEC East: Georgia, Tennessee or Florida, which means even more quality points.

If LSU wins out, it'll be hard to keep them out of the national championship game.

I've been a Mauck fan from day 1, but I still got a bad taste in my mouth since from that Florida game.

I really don't see a way for LSU to make it to the championship game unless they got a lot of help. I can't wait to see the new BCS rankings. Anderson&Hester computer probably still has LSU ranked #15.

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: tigerbait

Originally posted by: fjorner
Nobody's complaining about Matt Mauck now...

If LSU wins out, that means they will have beaten two more top 25 teams and whoever comes out of the SEC East: Georgia, Tennessee or Florida, which means even more quality points.

If LSU wins out, it'll be hard to keep them out of the national championship game.

I've been a Mauck fan from day 1, but I still got a bad taste in my mouth since from that Florida game.

I really don't see a way for LSU to make it to the championship game unless they got a lot of help. I can't wait to see the new BCS rankings. Anderson&Hester computer probably still has LSU ranked #15.

What time do they come out?

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: tigerbait

Originally posted by: fjorner
Nobody's complaining about Matt Mauck now...

If LSU wins out, that means they will have beaten two more top 25 teams and whoever comes out of the SEC East: Georgia, Tennessee or Florida, which means even more quality points.

If LSU wins out, it'll be hard to keep them out of the national championship game.

I've been a Mauck fan from day 1, but I still got a bad taste in my mouth since from that Florida game.

I really don't see a way for LSU to make it to the championship game unless they got a lot of help. I can't wait to see the new BCS rankings. Anderson&Hester computer probably still has LSU ranked #15.

What time do they come out?

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: tigerbait

Originally posted by: fjorner
Nobody's complaining about Matt Mauck now...

If LSU wins out, that means they will have beaten two more top 25 teams and whoever comes out of the SEC East: Georgia, Tennessee or Florida, which means even more quality points.

If LSU wins out, it'll be hard to keep them out of the national championship game.

I've been a Mauck fan from day 1, but I still got a bad taste in my mouth since from that Florida game.

I really don't see a way for LSU to make it to the championship game unless they got a lot of help. I can't wait to see the new BCS rankings. Anderson&Hester computer probably still has LSU ranked #15.

What time do they come out?

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: tigerbait

Originally posted by: fjorner
Nobody's complaining about Matt Mauck now...

If LSU wins out, that means they will have beaten two more top 25 teams and whoever comes out of the SEC East: Georgia, Tennessee or Florida, which means even more quality points.

If LSU wins out, it'll be hard to keep them out of the national championship game.

I've been a Mauck fan from day 1, but I still got a bad taste in my mouth since from that Florida game.

I really don't see a way for LSU to make it to the championship game unless they got a lot of help. I can't wait to see the new BCS rankings. Anderson&Hester computer probably still has LSU ranked #15.

What time do they come out?

 

[sciencewhiz]

I belelive 6pm EST (so another half hour).

However, Anderson&Hester is already out, and has LSU at 8th. Sagarin has them at 9th, which is dropped.

 

[MaxDepth]

Bowling Green vs. Miami (ohio) this week. that'll be game of the week for the MAC.