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Dullard's College Football Pre-Bowl Ratings

dullard

dullard

Elite Member
Here are the prebowl game ratings. Below I'll post I-AA ratings and bowl game predictions. I'd say that my ratings work decently for games in the season. But for bowl games, my ratings are worthless. Some teams have up to 6 weeks off to prepare for one game. Anything can and will happen, predictions are quite difficult.

Place : Win Rating / Score Rating ( W , L ) Team name
01 : 85.6 / 85.2 ( 12 , 0 ) Southern Cal
02 : 82.4 / 80.0 ( 12 , 0 ) Oklahoma
03 : 79.4 / 80.8 ( 10 , 1 ) California
04 : 78.5 / 77.8 ( 11 , 0 ) Utah
05 : 76.6 / 72.7 ( 10 , 1 ) Texas
06 : 75.8 / 72.8 ( 12 , 0 ) Auburn
07 : 69.6 / 64.5 ( 11 , 0 ) Boise St
08 : 68.2 / 70.5 ( 10 , 1 ) Louisville
09 : 68.1 / 64.2 ( 8 , 3 ) Arizona St
10 : 66.3 / 63.9 ( 9 , 2 ) Georgia
11 : 66.1 / 65.8 ( 8 , 3 ) Miami FL
12 : 65.7 / 63.3 ( 7 , 4 ) Texas A&M
13 : 65.2 / 61.8 ( 9 , 2 ) LSU
14 : 64.4 / 62.5 ( 10 , 2 ) Virginia Tech
15 : 63.7 / 58.5 ( 9 , 2 ) Iowa
16 : 62.7 / 61.9 ( 8 , 3 ) Florida St
17 : 61.9 / 57.4 ( 9 , 2 ) Michigan
18 : 61.8 / 59.7 ( 7 , 4 ) Oklahoma St
19 : 61.6 / 60.7 ( 8 , 3 ) Virginia
20 : 60.7 / 58.3 ( 7 , 4 ) Texas Tech
21 : 60.6 / 55.1 ( 9 , 3 ) Tennessee
22 : 58.8 / 56.8 ( 6 , 5 ) Oregon St
23 : 57.0 / 51.7 ( 9 , 2 ) Wisconsin
24 : 56.0 / 56.8 ( 6 , 5 ) UCLA
25 : 55.9 / 57.7 ( 7 , 4 ) Purdue
26 : 55.6 / 57.3 ( 7 , 4 ) Florida
27 : 55.3 / 56.0 ( 8 , 3 ) Fresno St
28 : 54.8 / 50.5 ( 7 , 4 ) New Mexico
29 : 54.1 / 47.5 ( 7 , 5 ) Colorado
30 : 54.0 / 51.5 ( 6 , 5 ) Notre Dame
31 : 53.5 / 51.0 ( 7 , 4 ) Ohio State
32 : 52.6 / 50.3 ( 8 , 3 ) West Virginia
33 : 52.5 / 48.9 ( 8 , 3 ) UTEP
34 : 52.0 / 46.7 ( 6 , 5 ) North Carolina
35 : 50.5 / 45.4 ( 8 , 3 ) Pittsburgh
36 : 50.4 / 46.5 ( 8 , 3 ) Boston College
37 : 50.2 / 43.4 ( 9 , 2 ) Navy
38 : 49.9 / 50.4 ( 5 , 6 ) Arkansas
39 : 49.5 / 46.9 ( 6 , 5 ) Clemson
40 : 48.6 / 46.0 ( 5 , 6 ) Brigham Young
41 : 48.0 / 48.8 ( 6 , 5 ) Alabama
42 : 48.0 / 44.5 ( 6 , 5 ) Georgia Tech
43 : 48.0 / 43.0 ( 6 , 5 ) Iowa St
44 : 47.8 / 47.1 ( 5 , 6 ) Oregon
45 : 47.2 / 49.2 ( 4 , 7 ) Stanford
46 : 47.2 / 45.1 ( 6 , 5 ) South Carolina
47 : 46.7 / 43.3 ( 5 , 6 ) Washington St
48 : 46.1 / 40.2 ( 8 , 3 ) Memphis
49 : 45.8 / 41.9 ( 6 , 5 ) Wyoming
50 : 45.4 / 45.3 ( 6 , 5 ) Minnesota
51 : 45.2 / 45.9 ( 5 , 6 ) North Carolina St
52 : 45.0 / 45.7 ( 4 , 7 ) Kansas
53 : 44.3 / 38.6 ( 7 , 4 ) Alabama-Birmingham
54 : 44.0 / 40.1 ( 6 , 5 ) Syracuse
55 : 43.8 / 41.8 ( 5 , 6 ) Air Force
56 : 43.8 / 40.2 ( 7 , 4 ) Troy St
57 : 43.3 / 44.9 ( 8 , 3 ) Bowling Green
58 : 43.3 / 39.1 ( 6 , 6 ) Northwestern
59 : 43.1 / 40.0 ( 5 , 6 ) Nebraska
60 : 43.0 / 41.9 ( 5 , 6 ) Missouri
61 : 42.9 / 41.7 ( 5 , 6 ) Maryland
62 : 42.6 / 39.4 ( 6 , 5 ) Cincinnati
63 : 42.5 / 42.3 ( 4 , 7 ) Kansas St
64 : 42.0 / 38.6 ( 7 , 4 ) Connecticut
65 : 41.9 / 35.3 ( 6 , 6 ) Louisiana Tech
66 : 41.5 / 35.9 ( 6 , 5 ) Southern Miss
67 : 40.9 / 36.5 ( 9 , 3 ) Toledo
68 : 40.5 / 33.8 ( 7 , 5 ) Hawai`i
69 : 40.2 / 37.7 ( 8 , 3 ) Northern Illinois
70 : 40.1 / 38.0 ( 4 , 7 ) Colorado St
71 : 39.8 / 29.2 ( 7 , 4 ) North Texas
72 : 39.7 / 38.0 ( 3 , 8 ) Arizona
73 : 39.1 / 39.7 ( 5 , 7 ) Michigan St
74 : 37.2 / 34.3 ( 4 , 7 ) Mississippi
75 : 37.0 / 39.4 ( 4 , 7 ) Penn St
76 : 36.4 / 32.4 ( 5 , 6 ) TCU
77 : 36.1 / 33.7 ( 8 , 4 ) Miami OH
78 : 36.0 / 33.9 ( 4 , 7 ) San Diego St
79 : 35.5 / 35.2 ( 4 , 7 ) Wake Forest
80 : 34.3 / 27.5 ( 5 , 6 ) New Mexico St
81 : 33.2 / 25.3 ( 3 , 8 ) Baylor
82 : 33.1 / 32.3 ( 6 , 5 ) Marshall
83 : 30.5 / 24.9 ( 5 , 6 ) Tulane
84 : 29.7 / 26.1 ( 4 , 7 ) Rutgers
85 : 29.6 / 28.4 ( 3 , 8 ) Mississippi St
86 : 28.1 / 21.3 ( 5 , 6 ) Middle Tenn St
87 : 28.0 / 24.2 ( 3 , 8 ) Houston
88 : 28.0 / 23.1 ( 4 , 7 ) South Florida
89 : 27.9 / 23.9 ( 4 , 8 ) Tulsa
90 : 27.7 / 27.7 ( 3 , 8 ) Indiana
91 : 27.4 / 26.7 ( 3 , 8 ) Illinois
92 : 26.8 / 16.8 ( 5 , 6 ) UL-Monroe
93 : 26.7 / 26.2 ( 1 , 10 ) Washington
94 : 26.3 / 20.4 ( 6 , 5 ) Akron
95 : 26.1 / 23.1 ( 2 , 9 ) UNLV
96 : 25.8 / 26.7 ( 2 , 9 ) Vanderbilt
97 : 25.5 / 22.9 ( 2 , 9 ) Duke
98 : 25.4 / 23.7 ( 2 , 9 ) Kentucky
99 : 25.3 / 20.8 ( 3 , 8 ) Rice
100 : 24.6 / 18.5 ( 5 , 7 ) Nevada
101 : 24.0 / 15.6 ( 3 , 8 ) SMU
102 : 23.0 / 23.4 ( 5 , 6 ) Kent St
103 : 22.8 / 18.1 ( 4 , 7 ) UL-Lafayette
104 : 20.8 / 13.1 ( 3 , 8 ) Utah St
105 : 19.9 / 17.0 ( 2 , 9 ) Temple
106 : 19.3 / 16.4 ( 2 , 9 ) Army
107 : 19.3 / 11.5 ( 3 , 8 ) Arkansas St
108 : 17.3 / 12.4 ( 2 , 9 ) East Carolina
109 : 16.4 / 14.7 ( 4 , 7 ) Ohio U.
110 : 15.0 / 5.6 ( 3 , 9 ) Idaho
111 : 14.9 / 10.5 ( 2 , 9 ) San Jose St
112 : 12.1 / 6.6 ( 4 , 7 ) Eastern Michigan
113 : 11.1 / 5.8 ( 4 , 7 ) Central Michigan
114 : 9.2 / 6.7 ( 2 , 9 ) Ball St
115 : 4.1 / 0.4 ( 2 , 9 ) Buffalo
116 : 2.1 / 1.0 ( 1 , 10 ) Western Michigan
117 : 0.0 / 0.0 ( 0 , 11 ) Central Florida
 
Division I-AA top 25.

Place : Score Rating ( W , L ) Team Name
01 : 20.9 ( 10 , 0 ) Harvard
02 : 19.6 ( 12 , 2 ) Montana
03 : 19.5 ( 9 , 3 ) Georgia Southern
04 : 17.7 ( 10 , 2 ) Southern Illinois
05 : 14.5 ( 9 , 4 ) Eastern Washington
06 : 14.5 ( 12 , 2 ) James Madison
07 : 14.3 ( 10 , 3 ) Furman
08 : 14.3 ( 10 , 3 ) New Hampshire
09 : 12.7 ( 11 , 3 ) William & Mary
10 : 12.4 ( 9 , 2 ) Cal Poly SLO
11 : 10.5 ( 11 , 3 ) Sam Houston St
12 : 10.0 ( 9 , 4 ) Delaware
13 : 8.9 ( 6 , 5 ) Villanova
14 : 7.3 ( 7 , 4 ) Portland St
15 : 6.9 ( 8 , 2 ) Pennsylvania
16 : 6.8 ( 9 , 3 ) Florida Atlantic
17 : 6.5 ( 7 , 4 ) Northern Iowa
18 : 4.6 ( 5 , 6 ) Maine
19 : 4.4 ( 5 , 6 ) Hofstra
20 : 3.2 ( 9 , 3 ) Lehigh
21 : 2.3 ( 5 , 6 ) Northeastern
22 : 2.2 ( 6 , 5 ) Massachusetts
23 : 2.1 ( 9 , 3 ) Western Kentucky
24 : 0.3 ( 9 , 2 ) Jacksonville St
25 : 0.0 ( 8 , 4 ) Northwestern St
 
Date Winner Loser Points
12/14 Southern Miss Noth Texas 6.7
12/17 Montana James Madison 5.1
12/21 Georgia Tech Syracuse 4.4
12/22 Memphis Bowling Green -4.7 * Predictions clash
12/23 Cincinnati Marshal 7.1
12/23 UCLA Wyoming 14.9
12/24 UAB Hawaii 4.8
12/27 Virginia Fresno St 4.7
12/27 Connecticut Toledo 2.1
12/28 Iowa St Miami OH 9.3
12/28 Oregon St Notre Dame 5.3
12/29 Colorado UTEP -1.4 * Predictions clash
12/29 Oklahoma St Ohio State 8.7
12/30 North Carolina Boston College 0.2
12/30 New Mexico Navy 7.1
12/30 California Texas Tech 22.5
12/30 Troy St Northern Illinois 2.5
12/31 Alabama Minnesota 3.5
12/31 Arizona St Purdue 6.5
12/31 Boise St Louisville -6 * Predictions clash
12/31 Miami FL Florida 8.5
1/1 Georgia Wisconsin 12.2
1/1 Texas A&M Tennessee 8.2
1/1 Florida St West Virginia 11.6
1/1 LSU Iowa 3.3
1/1 Texas Michigan 15.3
1/1 Utah Pittsburgh 32.4
1/3 Auburn Virginia Tech 10.3
1/4 Southern Cal Oklahoma 4.4
 
When you say predictions clash, you mean your win predictor has one team winning, but the score predictor has the other team winning?
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
When you say predictions clash, you mean your win predictor has one team winning, but the score predictor has the other team winning?
Click to expand...
Yep.
 
No lovin' for Auburn and VT--looks like your rankings wouldn't be very impressed by this year's Sugar Bowl. Might that have something to do with the I-AA opponents that each played or are there more complicated factors at work?Other than VT's 1-point loss to NC State, they had a pretty good year IMO.
 
this might have been asked before. Given that a lot of people consider the SEC to be the toughest conference in the land, what would have Auburn had to do to be one of the top 2 teams in your ranking (or for any other computer ranking out there for that matter)

If Auburn's OOC schedule was lets say exactly what USC's was, would they have been able to be among the top 2
 
Miami is higher than VT?

11 : 66.1 / 65.8 ( 8 , 3 ) Miami FL
12 : 65.7 / 63.3 ( 7 , 4 ) Texas A&M
13 : 65.2 / 61.8 ( 9 , 2 ) LSU
14 : 64.4 / 62.5 ( 10 , 2 ) Virginia Tech

come on now, they beat Miami.

 
Originally posted by: toant103
Miami is higher than VT?

11 : 66.1 / 65.8 ( 8 , 3 ) Miami FL
12 : 65.7 / 63.3 ( 7 , 4 ) Texas A&M
13 : 65.2 / 61.8 ( 9 , 2 ) LSU
14 : 64.4 / 62.5 ( 10 , 2 ) Virginia Tech

come on now, they beat Miami.
Click to expand...

VT beat Miama, but overall they were less impressive. They did move up 3 spots from the week before (Miami fell 4).
 
I was enjoying Montana being underrated all year. Only took 3 playoff games with us pushing 137 pts scored to 37 points allowed for us to be where we should be. 12/17 = Montana bringing home its 3rd IAA championship in 9 years (5 times in 9 years Montana has been to the IAA championship).
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
Originally posted by: toant103
Miami is higher than VT?

11 : 66.1 / 65.8 ( 8 , 3 ) Miami FL
12 : 65.7 / 63.3 ( 7 , 4 ) Texas A&M
13 : 65.2 / 61.8 ( 9 , 2 ) LSU
14 : 64.4 / 62.5 ( 10 , 2 ) Virginia Tech

come on now, they beat Miami.
Click to expand...

VT beat Miama, but overall they were less impressive. They did move up 3 spots from the week before (Miami fell 4).
Click to expand...

but i still think VT should be higher than miami. The only bad game we lost to is by 1 pt.

🙁

But our first year in the ACC and we're the champ. at the begining of the year, most people said we will finished in the bottom.
 
Originally posted by: Alkaline5
Might that have something to do with the I-AA opponents that each played or are there more complicated factors at work?
Click to expand...
You hit the nail on the head. Easy schedule. Being undefeated isn't enough otherwise Boise St would be #1 in many polls. You need more information than just the number of losses. In my program the other information is who you played and how well you played against them.

Suppose Southern Cal added another game (Central Florida) and won by 10 points. The formula says that Southern Cal should win by ~85 (subtract the ratings of each team to estimate the margin of victory). Thus they did worse than they should have, and Southern Cal is hurt in the ratings slightly despite the win. Using that simple math, you could say that if Southern Cal won by at least 85 points, then they would move up. However, margin of victory is capped in my program. There is no benefit for running up the score that much. Thus Southern Cal can ONLY be hurt in my program by playing Central Florida. I could remove the cap, but then you reward teams for running up the score and that isn't in the spirit of the game.

I-AA opponents, and even I-A opponents like Kentucky really hurt in computer ratings.

 
Originally posted by: toant103
Miami is higher than VT?

come on now, they beat Miami.
Click to expand...
So VT should be ranked higher based on that one game and ignoring all other factors. Also NC State should be ranked higher than VT (ignoring all other factors). And North Carolina should be ranked higher than NC State since North Carolina beat NC State. Repeat over and over and you'll come up with the conclusion that Western Michigan should be ranked above VT.

 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: toant103
Miami is higher than VT?

come on now, they beat Miami.
Click to expand...
So VT should be ranked higher based on that one game and ignoring all other factors. Also NC State should be ranked higher than VT (ignoring all other factors). And North Carolina should be ranked higher than NC State since North Carolina beat NC State. Repeat over and over and you'll come up with the conclusion that Western Michigan should be ranked above VT.
Click to expand...

if you want to follow it further, you would find that a 2-8 division III team, Salve Regina would be on top 🙂
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: toant103
Miami is higher than VT?

come on now, they beat Miami.
Click to expand...
So VT should be ranked higher based on that one game and ignoring all other factors. Also NC State should be ranked higher than VT (ignoring all other factors). And North Carolina should be ranked higher than NC State since North Carolina beat NC State. Repeat over and over and you'll come up with the conclusion that Western Michigan should be ranked above VT.
Click to expand...

i see where your going but it's just my personal opinion.
 
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