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Question DRAM prices speculation (OMG)

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fastandfurious6 said:
up to 150% increase throughout all DRAM products 😭
128GB now costs upwards $1000.... was $400 just 6 months ago

is it going to go back?
Click to expand...

This has all happened before, and it'll happen again. In the mid 90s prices went way up (because of Windows 95 memory requirements) and it took over two years before they hit a lower point than they had been previously. There have been some episodes since but not as big as that one (and this one) so people are caught off guard.

If the AI bubble doesn't burst and they actually follow through with even half of the claimed/planned/announced datacenter projects it might double again before it peaks. They have the money to push Samsung/Micron/etc. into converting lines making DDR5/LPDDR5X to HBM, and they'll happily go along because $$$.

I imagine the China memory fabs are greatly speeding up their timelines and will be able to get a lot more capacity online. The US will likely tariff or otherwise block them but that RAM will be able to be used in PCs/phones shipping to the rest of the world so if you live outside the US you might get some relief later next year.
 
Forgot there's a memory section. There's a good thread already there. This can be deleted

No worries. I'll lock this and anyone that wants to continue the discussion can do it in that thread.

-Mod DAPUNISHER
 
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Fjodor2001 said:
Perhaps Windows is also a reason in this case.

I.e. the forced Windows 11 upgrades when Windows 10 went EOL in October 2025, which for a lot of users means that have to buy a new PC.
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That just doesn't account for all that much, first because most people aren't replacing their PCs over that (look how long it took Windows 7 to drop below a double digit share of the installed base after it went EOL, and I bet Windows 10 will take even longer to get there) and second because the PC that most will buy to replace it doesn't have all that much RAM.

Looking at Best Buy's Black Friday PC/laptop deals (the kind of place average people would look at if they felt like they were "forced" to replace their PC) you see Chromebooks with 4 GB, and PCs with 8 GB and 16 GB. I didn't scroll far (their site sucks and is slow/overloaded) but I didn't see anything higher than 16 GB.

That 8 GB to 16 GB range is smartphone territory, and there are 3-4x as many smartphones shipped per year as PCs. Apple going from 8 GB to 12 GB in the iPhone (which ships nearly a quarter billion units per year - for context 262 million PCs shipped in 2024) probably has more impact on the DRAM market than Windows 11 forced upgrades lol
 
Doug S said:
That just doesn't account for all that much, first because most people aren't replacing their PCs over that
Click to expand...

Corpos tho. That is not a small number. But they would be done by now. I was given a new machine specifically because of Windows 11.

There might be some hoarding going on by OEMs.
 
Doug S said:
This has all happened before, and it'll happen again. In the mid 90s prices went way up (because of Windows 95 memory requirements) and it took over two years before they hit a lower point than they had been previously. There have been some episodes since but not as big as that one (and this one) so people are caught off guard.

If the AI bubble doesn't burst and they actually follow through with even half of the claimed/planned/announced datacenter projects it might double again before it peaks. They have the money to push Samsung/Micron/etc. into converting lines making DDR5/LPDDR5X to HBM, and they'll happily go along because $$$.

I imagine the China memory fabs are greatly speeding up their timelines and will be able to get a lot more capacity online. The US will likely tariff or otherwise block them but that RAM will be able to be used in PCs/phones shipping to the rest of the world so if you live outside the US you might get some relief later next year.
Click to expand...
The issue is that this time is different... is the USA which is moving ALL in their AI.

So yeah, forget cheap prices since the USA would keep it up artificially.

But yeah, China would intervene and at least locally and initially for DDR4 RAMs would be lowered by sheer resolution and intervention. And it will help the rest of the world for that. As for DDR5, it might come later.
 
Doug S said:
If the AI bubble doesn't burst and they actually follow through with even half of the claimed/planned/announced datacenter projects it might double again before it peaks. They have the money to push Samsung/Micron/etc. into converting lines making DDR5/LPDDR5X to HBM, and they'll happily go along because $$$.

I imagine the China memory fabs are greatly speeding up their timelines and will be able to get a lot more capacity online. The US will likely tariff or otherwise block them but that RAM will be able to be used in PCs/phones shipping to the rest of the world so if you live outside the US you might get some relief later next year.
Click to expand...
Your concept is correct but it is even worse than you mentioned in your last paragraph. Spot DRAM prices have now quadrupled from Sept 20 to Dec 1 ($6.84 to $27.20 for 16 Gbit DDR5). Shortages expected to last until 2027 and maybe more. New production might not be fully ready until 2029.
 
dullard said:
Your concept is correct but it is even worse than you mentioned in your last paragraph. Spot DRAM prices have now quadrupled from Sept 20 to Dec 1 ($6.84 to $27.20 for 16 Gbit DDR5). Shortages expected to last until 2027 and maybe more. New production might not be fully ready until 2029.
Click to expand...
The situation would escalate further, this is bad for everyone, even bussiness since there won't be RAM parts to replace in case the used ones fails.
 
DZero said:
The situation would escalate further, this is bad for everyone, even bussiness since there won't be RAM parts to replace in case the used ones fails.
Click to expand...
It is worse than that. Not enough substrates and wafers (AI / Data Center demand causing shortages + politics) means that we could soon have CPU, GPU, and SDD shortages. Memory is just being hurt first due to politics.
 
dullard said:
It is worse than that. Not enough substrates and wafers (AI / Data Center demand causing shortages + politics) means that we could soon have CPU, GPU, and SDD shortages. Memory is just being hurt first due to politics.
Click to expand...
Time to go vintage then.
 
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