dow 10000 thread, and other misc economy polls

[miketheidiot]

i'll check this in the morning if anyone has some decent poll questions.


just trying to gauge the p&n respondents

 

[StageLeft]

DOW 10k during 2010, although I am probably over-influenced by the recent rally. The fundamentals don't, and won't, underscore a relevant 10k by then (it still could happen, though; it's not like the stock market is always accurate!).

0-5% inflation. It may end up being much higher but if it's that low it's because the economy is still sputtering.

No depression at this point.

Roughly the same.

No clue.

Yes in 5-10 years. Won't be nearly on the scale of this past one, though, so maybe not "massive".

 

[Siddhartha]

"do you think there will be another massive economic bubble w/in the next 5-10 years?"

I am not sure the financial markets will recover enough anytime soon to support a major bubble.

 

[Cattlegod]

lol at the dow 10000 is meaningless due to hyperinflation.

 

[Jaskalas]

Knowing **** was hitting the fan was easier to predict than the turbulence we face now.

I believe we?ll see 20-30% inflation or 20-30% interest rates. Of course I am incapable of quantifying the impact printing trillions has on our economy, so this is nothing more than a guess. I can guarantee that inflation or interest rates will rise. I have no idea by how much but I expect it to be substantial given the money we have spent/printed.

DOW 10k? Possible, especially if a government-backed bubble kicks into effect, but I have no idea when. Which btw, I fully expect this government bubble to collapse in the next decade. Sort of like we?ve spilled some eggs in this depression so the ?cure? is to put all our eggs in one basket. I believe we?re going to drop this basket at some point, which is nothing less than catastrophic.

I always believe parallelism increases the odds of survival, when dealing with baskets of eggs or people?s lives. We are the eggs, and we?re all being placed under the economic care of the government?s basket. No other baskets to bail us out next time, as a result of our actions this time. We?ve backed ourselves into a terrible corner.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
DOW 10k during 2010, although I am probably over-influenced by the recent rally. The fundamentals don't, and won't, underscore a relevant 10k by then (it still could happen, though; it's not like the stock market is always accurate!).

0-5% inflation. It may end up being much higher but if it's that low it's because the economy is still sputtering.

No depression at this point.

Roughly the same.

No clue.

Yes in 5-10 years. Won't be nearly on the scale of this past one, though, so maybe not "massive".

Fail.

Just hit it today!

 

[rudder]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Skoorb
DOW 10k during 2010, although I am probably over-influenced by the recent rally. The fundamentals don't, and won't, underscore a relevant 10k by then (it still could happen, though; it's not like the stock market is always accurate!).

0-5% inflation. It may end up being much higher but if it's that low it's because the economy is still sputtering.

No depression at this point.

Roughly the same.

No clue.

Yes in 5-10 years. Won't be nearly on the scale of this past one, though, so maybe not "massive".

Fail.

Just hit it today!

That idiot is worse than dmmcowen and his $7 a gallon milk prediction. I knew once barack was elected, He would turn the economy around.

 

[jonks]

I don't care about the dow so much. When I no longer jump every time my phone rings at work I'll consider us on the road to recovery.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Skoorb
DOW 10k during 2010, although I am probably over-influenced by the recent rally. The fundamentals don't, and won't, underscore a relevant 10k by then (it still could happen, though; it's not like the stock market is always accurate!).

0-5% inflation. It may end up being much higher but if it's that low it's because the economy is still sputtering.

No depression at this point.

Roughly the same.

No clue.

Yes in 5-10 years. Won't be nearly on the scale of this past one, though, so maybe not "massive".

Fail.

Just hit it today!

But perhaps you were measuring in USD, valued on 03/24/2009. And therefor, not wrong. Yet at least.

DOW may be at a 52-week high, but the USD is at a 52-week low.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: rudder

That idiot is worse than dmmcowen and his $7 a gallon milk prediction. I knew once barack was elected, He would turn the economy around.

The rich and their monopoly game (Stock Market) =! the rest of us lowly Americans.

 

[miketheidiot]

i forgot about this thread

I *think* i voted q1 2010

 

[miketheidiot]

DOW may be at a 52-week high, but the USD is at a 52-week low.

the companies in the dow operate in dollars pay in dollars, record profits in dollars, and there has been no dollar inflation.


this is a pretty legit 10k compared to 3/24/09

 

[Elias824]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: rudder

That idiot is worse than dmmcowen and his $7 a gallon milk prediction. I knew once barack was elected, He would turn the economy around.

The rich and their monopoly game (Stock Market) =! the rest of us lowly Americans.

Yes because you have to be rich to buy stocks.

 

[heyheybooboo]

At 10k the DJIA is around 70% of GDP --- historical average is around 77%. Limiting 'irrational exuberance' is a good thing when it swings to a wildly higher percentage of GDP (it was in the 120s in the late 1990s (Tech Goofballs) and before the latest crash (Over-Leveraged -?- Goofballs). Essentially, P/E ratios of the DJIs swing way out of line to actual GAAP earnings.

Being a noted DJIA savant ( ) I predict 10.9k in the next 6-8 months with a return in the range of 7% from Dow index funds.

Yall write this down and feel free to abuse me next May ....

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: rudder

That idiot is worse than dmmcowen and his $7 a gallon milk prediction. I knew once barack was elected, He would turn the economy around.

The rich and their monopoly game (Stock Market) =! the rest of us lowly Americans.

I am rich these days because milk is cost so little. Honest to God I saw $1.49 for a gallon of milk today at Aldi in Penfield, NY. That is 10 or 20 cents cheaper than I've ever seen it, the previous record a couple years ago at Costco. A buck fifty for an entire gallon!