Dollar Hits New Low 12/29/03

Witling

Golden Member
Jul 30, 2003
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The dollar has hit a new low. Financial Times straight new report. This article is interesting because although the dollar just hit $1.25 to the Euro, it points out that serious intervention won't be considered until it hits about $1.37.

On a more interesting note, this is a Pravda Report (not directly involved in the struggle between the dollar and the Euro) that mentions monetary policy as punishment. BTW, whatever you cold war warriors may remember of Pravda, it now publishes some in depth and IMHO, accurate articles. The Pravda article follows (the translation is less than smooth).

Pravda Report on Dollar v Ruble.

We can look at the problem wider. For example, lets examine a famous Russian sociologist Alexander Zinoviev"s work "Great Evolutionary Brake", where dollar is shown as an instrument of ruling the modern world (his thoughts on this were published in Washington ProFile). Noting political, social and economical functions of dollar, Zinoviev pointed out how meaningless are the talks of euro as its real economical competitor. American currency is not gold or goods reserves, but military power of the USA. American army and navy are miles ahead those of any other country, especially of Western Europe. Euro can become stronger, but it is not principal, as there"s no such army behind it. Also, western European forces are under western 'super-society' commandment, and Americans basically rule there as well. Overall, it is possible to say that euro is a global mechanism of redistribution of dollars between world players, thinks Zinoviev.
Agreeing that integrating Europe tries to a certain degree to present euro as a dollar"s opponent, Zinoviev argues that "Europe is allowed to do this until she crosses own borders" and that "with first attempts to position euro seriously in world markets, dollar will strike severely". In his words, "it has to be remembered that even though western super society depends on successful work of many, not one mechanism, each of them is unique and can not have competitors or substitutions. Just like European society is a secondary part of western super society, lead by the US, euro is a secondary currency, a derivative from dollar - the face of global monetary mechanism. Fluctuations between these two currencies, rise of one and fall of the other are elements of the great chess game, played on thousands boards with constantly changing rules."
Dollar in most cases serves as encouragement or punishment means. Globally oriented Washington is interested in good relations with Kremlin, so its in the US" interests to keep ruble stable. "But if for some reason there will be a need to fall ruble, a week"s enough for another default or something like that. Stability of a country"s currency to dollar is exactly that encouragement factor", warns Zinoviev. Instability comes in when there"s a need to change a "bad" government.

I note, but do not assert as cause and effect, that Iraq had started denominating its oil transfers in Euros. That certainly isn't the reason we went to war, but then, complicated entities seldom make a major move for only one reason.

EDITED: The word "dollars" was changed to "Euros" in the preceeding paragraph.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
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Cliffs:

Dollar aint worth nothing if you got nothing to buy.
 

GrGr

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2003
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The Big Oil game is definitely one of the major reasons the US invaded Iraq. Cheney has calculated that by 2020 the US will import 2 out of 3 barrels of oil. And the oil consumption of the US is constantly increasing. If those two barrels of oil are in the wrong hands from a US perspective imagine what that would do to the economy.

I predict that within ten years (maybe sooner if Bush wins next year) the US will invade Saudi Arabia, who has the world's largest oil reserves.

Saudi Arabia, bribery and oil

In this link Robert Baer says that Kissinger had a plan to invade Saudi Arabia
 

freegeeks

Diamond Member
May 7, 2001
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I hope that the dollars weakens even further
I have some payments to do in dollar the next months:D
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
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Good thing Dean will come along and correct all this. And I was worried that by next christmas I'd be burning $1 bills as firewood.
 

firewall

Platinum Member
Oct 11, 2001
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Originally posted by: GrGr
The Big Oil game is definitely one of the major reasons the US invaded Iraq. Cheney has calculated that by 2020 the US will import 2 out of 3 barrels of oil. And the oil consumption of the US is constantly increasing. If those two barrels of oil are in the wrong hands from a US perspective imagine what that would do to the economy.

I predict that within ten years (maybe sooner if Bush wins next year) the US will invade Saudi Arabia, who has the world's largest oil reserves.

Saudi Arabia, bribery and oil

In this link Robert Baer says that Kissinger had a plan to invade Saudi Arabia

The money wasted on Iraq war and as per your predication on Saudi Arabia could be better used on searching for alternative sources of energy and will save human life, losses and other forms of colateral damages of war. Oil will not last for long and alternative sources must be found which require more investments. War has never been and will never be useful to anyone.
 

firewall

Platinum Member
Oct 11, 2001
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I predict that within ten years (maybe sooner if Bush wins next year) the US will invade Saudi Arabia, who has the world's largest oil reserves.

This just proves my point that bush is a war maniac. Usage of force to gain their vested interests would only tarnish the image of US abroad.
 

gaga38

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Apr 15, 2003
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Originally posted by: asadasif
I predict that within ten years (maybe sooner if Bush wins next year) the US will invade Saudi Arabia, who has the world's largest oil reserves.

This just proves my point that bush is a war maniac. Usage of force to gain their vested interests would only tarnish the image of US abroad.


no i dont think bush is a war maniac
he just wants to have all the ressources america needs to be well
if he was a war maniac he would have invaded nk
and the image of us is quite tarnished
for almost everybody (except americans) bush went to irak for oil and not liberty of wmd
 

Zebo

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Jul 29, 2001
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We'll never invade SA. They have a such a strong financial relationship with wall-street and the Bush carlye group (the main investment vechile for SA cash which pappy bush sits on), and defense contractors for arms they can't even use it's not in thier financial intrest to even put it on the table.



 

gaga38

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Apr 15, 2003
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Originally posted by: Zebo
We'll never invade SA. They have a such a strong financial relationship with wall-street and the Bush carlye group (the main investment vechile for SA cash which pappy bush sits on), and defense contractors for arms they can't even use it's not in thier financial intrest to even put it on the table.

when there wont be enough oil in iraq and plenty in sa the us will invade sa
the us without oil is quite nothing atm
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
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Originally posted by: gaga38
Originally posted by: Zebo
We'll never invade SA. They have a such a strong financial relationship with wall-street and the Bush carlye group (the main investment vechile for SA cash which pappy bush sits on), and defense contractors for arms they can't even use it's not in thier financial intrest to even put it on the table.

when there wont be enough oil in iraq and plenty in sa the us will invade sa
the us without oil is quite nothing atm

Why take what they give?

You see the saudi royals only need to "pay" the people in power to keep us out. No big deal and very lucrative for both sides.. If we go in it becomes such a democratic delution of funds both here for many many companies and intrests and in SA as a whole for all thier people.
 

Mill

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
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How is this news? It has been said that it will bottom out at about 1.37-1.38 before the dollar starts rebounding. Currency typically takes a little time to come back after a weak economic state. It took the Euro a LONG time to start coming out strong after our crappy economy since about 2000. Even though I am not a Bush fan, I still find it seriously hard to believe that anyone could blame the recession on him. He inherited that and anyone with a slight mass of gray matter knows that there is little he can do in 3 years, but he has done enough to turn it around.
 

Witling

Golden Member
Jul 30, 2003
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"How is this news?" Well, Mill. We all know that winter comes, but some of us like the weather report as it goes along. This dollar is not coming back soon. I think that it will hover in the $1.37 basement for a while and then go lower.
 

Mill

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
28,558
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Originally posted by: Whitling
"How is this news?" Well, Mill. We all know that winter comes, but some of us like the weather report as it goes along. This dollar is not coming back soon. I think that it will hover in the $1.37 basement for a while and then go lower.

Why would it go lower? Care to give some reasoning? The Central banks in the US and EU will alter policy if it dips much more past the 1.40 mark or stays this low into the 3rd and 4th quarter. The EU's economy is not growing at the rate of the US's, and a weaker dollar makes them import more and export less. Thus, they will have to alter their policy if dips into 1.30 range for too long. They don't have the diversity and viability that we have. The dollar will strengthen again within the next 6-9 months at a good clip. I'm not sure why a weak dollar is all that bad right now. We are exporting a lot more and importing a lot less. We need that after our fairly high rates during the mid to late 90's kept the dollar really strong and our imports up. We could use a bit of correction and start exporting more for awhile. A correction is good to keep the cyclical economy on its path back to prosperity. The dollar did this back during the 80's before we hit a growth spurt... rose really strong and then we had another recession. A gradually weakening dollar is GOOD for the US economy at this stage. Unless we see 1.50 I don't forsee a problem, and even then we can raise rates to help soften the blow. The Asian banks are propping up the dollar anyway. Like I said... in an economical view it really isn't newsworthy.