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DOJ rape study debunks 1-in-5.

Atreus21

Atreus21

Lifer
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

BJS-SA-Study-Highlights.jpg


6.1 per 1000. Instead of 1 in 5, try about 1 in 160. Furthermore, non-students suffer sexual assault at higher rates than students.
 
1 in 5 is actually 1 in 160?

Guess which number will be broadcast more in the media, and memorized by millions of people?
 
Atreus21 said:
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

BJS-SA-Study-Highlights.jpg


6.1 per 1000. Instead of 1 in 5, try about 1 in 160. Furthermore, non-students suffer sexual assault at higher rates than students.
Click to expand...

Are you daft? The 6.1 per 1000 is every year. Carry that over a lot of years and eventually you can have 1 in 5 woman over a life time experience rape. There can be overlap with woman getting raped multiple times, and I have no idea how the 1 in 5 was concocted but comparing a lifetime chance to a yearly rate is stupid.
 
I think regardless of the incidence rate, the way that some of these schools have handled complaints (both for accused and accusers) is shameful.
 
CLite said:
Are you daft? The 6.1 per 1000 is every year. Carry that over a lot of years and eventually you can have 1 in 5 woman over a life time experience rape. There can be overlap with woman getting raped multiple times, and I have no idea how the 1 in 5 was concocted but comparing a lifetime chance to a yearly rate is stupid.
Click to expand...

You also have to account for unreported cases which it's estimate make up more than half of all rapes.
 
Atreus21 said:
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

BJS-SA-Study-Highlights.jpg


6.1 per 1000. Instead of 1 in 5, try about 1 in 160. Furthermore, non-students suffer sexual assault at higher rates than students.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's a yearly measure as opposed to a lifetime measure (as the statistic says). If you do a compound probability calculation of a 0.625% chance and average it over a person's lifetime (40 years?) you end up with somewhere around a 20% lifetime chance.

Yes, that's a crude measure as someone else mentioned certain people are victimized multiple times and yes we can argue about how many years of compound probability we should use, etc, etc, but the 1 in 5 stat seems like it's in the ballpark.
 
thraashman said:
You also have to account for unreported cases which it's estimate make up more than half of all rapes.
Click to expand...

These figures are taking into account un-reported cases.

The findings are from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which collects information on nonfatal crimes reported and not reported to police against persons age 12 or older.
Click to expand...
 
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eskimospy said:
Yeah, that's a yearly measure as opposed to a lifetime measure (as the statistic says). If you do a compound probability calculation of a 0.625% chance and average it over a person's lifetime (40 years?) you end up with somewhere around a 20% lifetime chance.

Yes, that's a crude measure as someone else mentioned certain people are victimized multiple times and yes we can argue about how many years of compound probability we should use, etc, etc, but the 1 in 5 stat seems like it's in the ballpark.
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Chart 2 in the report shows that the incidence of rape for females NOT aged 18-to-24 is about one-third that of 18-to-24 year olds.
 
eskimospy said:
Yeah, that's a yearly measure as opposed to a lifetime measure (as the statistic says). If you do a compound probability calculation of a 0.625% chance and average it over a person's lifetime (40 years?) you end up with somewhere around a 20% lifetime chance.

Yes, that's a crude measure as someone else mentioned certain people are victimized multiple times and yes we can argue about how many years of compound probability we should use, etc, etc, but the 1 in 5 stat seems like it's in the ballpark.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that the prevailing 1 in 5 term referenced women in college, not women throughout their lifetimes.

And I imagine when they say "women in college", they also mean "women of college-age" meaning 18-24.

Furthermore, the study comprised the years 1995-2013. Is the 6.1 in 1000 an average over those 8 years?
 
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Atreus21 said:
My understanding is that the prevailing 1 in 5 term referenced women in college, not women throughout their lifetimes.

And I imagine when they say "women in college", they also mean "women of college-age" meaning 18-24.
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As best as I understand it the 1 in 5 term comes from the CDC, and that is a lifetime figure.

http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/pdf/sv-datasheet-a.pdf

EDIT: There is also a figure there where 1 in 5 women report an attempted or completed sexual assault of some type, but that could mean a lot of different things. Anyways, it's definitely not all rape.

Furthermore, the study comprised the years 1995-2013. Is the 6.1 in 1000 an average over those 8 years?
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It is an average per-year figure. ie: an average of 6.1 women of that age range were raped per 1,000 each year, not over the 8 year period. Interestingly, figure 2 reports a substantially lower rate for non-college age women, but again my figure of 40 years clearly doesn't cover a whole lifetime.

I would have to say that the figures in your report broadly conform to the 1 in 5 estimate, although there are some fairly large uncertainties that could swing the numbers either way.
 
Atreus21 said:
My understanding is that the prevailing 1 in 5 term referenced women in college, not women throughout their lifetimes.

And I imagine when they say "women in college", they also mean "women of college-age" meaning 18-24.
Click to expand...

Maybe you should be more sure about statistics you are attempting to debunk.
 
shira said:
Chart 2 in the report shows that the incidence of rape for females NOT aged 18-to-24 is about one-third that of 18-to-24 year olds.
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Yeah I saw that later. I do say that 40 years is a very low number though. To come up with a good figure you would probably need prevalence by age cohorts and do a compound calculation based on that. I'm not doing that though, haha.

I think the numbers indicate that the 1 in 5 stat is certainly plausible.
 
Even if it isn't 20% of all women, what are you trying to show here? Hooray, only about one million American women will be raped? Isn't that still pretty fucking awful?
 
michal1980 said:
why make the number worse when its not?

What are you trying to gain?
Click to expand...

why make the numbers better when they are not?

what are you trying to gain?

Atreus21 said:
My understanding is that the prevailing 1 in 5 term referenced women in college, not women throughout their lifetimes.

And I imagine when they say "women in college", they also mean "women of college-age" meaning 18-24.

Furthermore, the study comprised the years 1995-2013. Is the 6.1 in 1000 an average over those 8 years?
Click to expand...

Figure 2 in the study that you supposedly read before posting (unlikely) shows the yearly average rate. It is obviously not aggregate over 8 years.

The 1 in 5 (19.3% chance) is from the CDC and the CDC says lifetime not college age woman.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss6308a1.htm?s_cid=ss6308a1_e

Overall, the trend is in a great direction per Figure 2 of the study you linked. There is a large decrease in rate due perhaps to increased awareness and protections put in place on campuses (blue lights/etc.). That said, the attempt to disparage an important issue in society with imbecilic interpretations of data (1 in 160) is in poor taste.
 
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CLite said:
why make the numbers better when they are not?
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6.1/1000 is significantly better than 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 or whatever politically motivated statistic is floating around. It doesn't make the tragedy that befell the individual any less, but it does put "rape culture" in greater context for society - does it not?
 
the 1 in 5 of college age (implied to be while they were in college) individuals was always a highly dubious number; 1 in 5 over a lifetime looks realistic from the data. Those figures would suggest (assuming every case is different etc) about ~3% of college age women are raped in college. Obviously anything above 0% is bad but this is a far cry from 20%.
 
I'd like to know the flip statistic of the percentage of men who will rape someone during their lifetime.

Because what the fuck.
 
Knowing said:
6.1/1000 is significantly better than 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 or whatever politically motivated statistic is floating around. It doesn't make the tragedy that befell the individual any less, but it does put "rape culture" in greater context for society - does it not?
Click to expand...

Did you not read this thread?

1 in 160 woman are raped a year per the OP article.
1 in 5 woman are raped over their lifetime per the CDC from years ago.

1/5 is not a politically motivated statistic it is a researched number by the CDC. You would have to be a complete moron to compare 1 in 160 to 1 in 5, they are over different time spans.
 
Knowing said:
6.1/1000 is significantly better than 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 or whatever politically motivated statistic is floating around. It doesn't make the tragedy that befell the individual any less, but it does put "rape culture" in greater context for society - does it not?
Click to expand...

You should probably read the thread better. It is 6.1/1000 per year, and an approximate 1 in 5 LIFETIME chance of being the victim of rape. The numbers presented here are broadly compatible with this.

The 1 in 5 figure for college age women is a separate figure related to sexual assaults of all types, both attempted and completed. It is not addressed by this study.
 
Conservative brain defectives often come with a culturally induced Biblically traditional pro patriarchal and mysogynistic bias that if challenged by society threatens the concept that their faith is actually moral. This will induce a grasping of anything that might offer a way to rationalize away that threat. It isn't that they are evil. They are just trying to protect the good, a good thing to do, without actually knowing what it is.

Meanwhile, they will pass their screwed up fear of the sexual nature of women onto their kids, creating boys full of lust without sympathy who will objectify women and girls who will report sex as rape rather than experience shame when exposed.
 
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