Do you think the end of fossil driven vehicles is coming soon?

[Commodus]

The transition will probably happen sooner than you think.

I see it as a snowball effect. Right now we're in this awkward early phase where most EVs are still expensive and the infrastructure is still limited, but there's going to be a point in a few years where you suddenly find that $25,000 EVs are a practical reality and the charging networks are considerably better. And from there, adoption could accelerate.

I wouldn't say the end is coming in 10 years. But when GM plans to stop selling gas cars by 2035 and other brands are likely to follow suit, there could be a culture change in the next several years. When brands stop selling new gas cars, the technology will have already been on the decline for years — the only people still buying ICE vehicles by then may be niche customers or holdouts. You'll still see gas cars on the road for years after that, but they may already be the exceptions by that point.

 

[feralkid]

Rhetoric from a politician is not the same as actual action.

There are four reasons the logistics will still support ICE vehicles.


2. Coast-to-coast trucking. Do you see a certain popular website that makes people love shopping there. Something about an abstract, barely discernable smile on those boxes?

These guys?

Long-haul options are coming soon.

 

[K1052]

2. Coast-to-coast trucking. Do you see a certain popular website that makes people love shopping there. Something about an abstract, barely discernable smile on those boxes?

Wut. Amazon isn't running a fleet of trucks on cross country trips. That's done by intermodal rail.

 

[Stokely]

It'll happen, but gradually. Not because "we" care about wiping out the ecology that we ourselves depend on, but simply because economics will win out for electric tech. It's already happening in power generation overall.


One thing that would really help the overall goal--less emissions--would be wider acceptance of work-from-home after covid. From what I hear, my company is looking around right now and saying "we are doing just fine with almost everyone at home...why are we paying for that expensive building again?" Obviously not every job can be done from home, but those that can, there should be the option. Partly due to covid making me unwilling to go many places, to be sure--but since March 2020 I've filled up my car only a couple times and that only because I made a couple trips to the beach an hour away.

Shipping is a huge emissions monster, granted it's a whole 'nother set of solutions, but part of the same underlying problem.

 

[desy]

It'll happen, but gradually. Not because "we" care about wiping out the ecology that we ourselves depend on, but simply because economics will win out for electric tech. It's already happening in power generation overall.


One thing that would really help the overall goal--less emissions--would be wider acceptance of work-from-home after covid. From what I hear, my company is looking around right now and saying "we are doing just fine with almost everyone at home...why are we paying for that expensive building again?" Obviously not every job can be done from home, but those that can, there should be the option. Partly due to covid making me unwilling to go many places, to be sure--but since March 2020 I've filled up my car only a couple times and that only because I made a couple trips to the beach an hour away.

Shipping is a huge emissions monster, granted it's a whole 'nother set of solutions, but part of the same underlying problem.

Yeah Covid hit and I parked a car in my back yard due to low utility. I figure I save about 400 a month in parking, insurance and gas now

 

[pmv]

I hope so. Too many old fossils out there driving vehicles when their reactions and eysight are no longer good enough.

 

[pmv]

Do you think the end of fossil driven vehicles is coming soon?

Olds and BoomerD will never give up their keys.

Damn, beaten to it!

 

[Brainonska511]

I have seen a lot of u-haul trailers bouncing down the road. Then there are boats, jet skis, campers, snowmobiles, four wheelers, car dollys, and all those accessories we seem to accumulate.

That is definitely not a majority of people. People are buying monstrous vehicles for carting families of 4 around, because they *might* need to carry 2 more people a week per year, or buy a large appliance once every 3 years. All situations that renting a vehicle for that purpose could be both better for the user's wallet and the environment.

On a personal level I have several trips every year that involve a trailer. Getting the boat from winter storage being one of them. I use an old already paid for full size truck for that though, and it is hard for me to see an electric one replacing it in the next few decades.

Another thing electric is poor at is practical off road. Heavy vehicles sink in the sand/mud. It is not about power or angle of attack, but rather floatation. This is a big deal in the spring when the ground is soft and a person is looking to park a now empty boat trailer for the summer.

Great, but you're likely a minority of users.

I see plenty of trucks and SUVs in my area, but the most work they ever do is driving through a city puddle or going to the grocery store.

 

[woolfe9998]

10 years? Yea.

This climate awareness is gonna take off, as in REALLY off, in the next couple of years, its gonna "fuel" the transition.
Given you dont put the Orange Retard back on the throne 2024, i'd say 80% of all new "cars" 2031 is gonna electric.
90%?

The funny thing is that electric cars are the one thing Trump actually talked up, all because Musk met with him and kissed his ass. That's all it takes.

 

[brycejones]

Interesting opinion piece on bloomberg:

When the Electric Car Is King, Less Energy Is More

Electrifying the vehicle fleet would save more energy than we get from the entire power grid today.

www.bloomberg.com

Basically replacing ICE with electric cars saves a ton of energy because of how inefficient ICE is in converting energy to actual power at the wheels. Something like 80% of the oil used for transportation (of which transportation is by far the largest consumer) is wasted as heat that does no work.

 

[vi edit]

There's so much to unpack in this question that it's a lot like asking why healthcare is so expensive and how to we fix that?

I think ultimately the answer comes down to "use less".

EV's aren't an answer. They just push the problem a little further down the road. We still have manufacturing waste, very precious elements are required to build the batteries, and ultimately have some pretty toxic stuff we are going to have to start thinking about dealing with en masse eventually when all of these batteries start crapping out. It is true they reduce pollution on highways. Ultimately they are probably lower maintenance and just a better overall appliance for driving. Especially once self driving is much more vetted and reliable.

But we still have energy needs to fuel them. So that's still a thing. Power plants still need to charge them and with the push to renewable sources you run into demand issues. So there's a lot there that needs to be ironed out.

Nothing has been proposed that will really answer the question of what replaces current air travel? If fossil fuels ceased to exist tomorrow...air flight as we know it done. So much of our military runs on fossil fuels. Those don't have answers. There's just some things we don't have answers for.

For the rest of us, it just comes down to using less. If you work from home it doesn't matter what is in your driveway. You aren't using fuel of any sort. If you take a bike instead of a car same thing. Or a move to more functional mass transit. That's the reality that most of us will probably have to eventually accept. Denser urban environments and a lot less travel. Long term, the way rural America is structured is probably unsustainable. The costs sunk to maintain infrastructure just doesn't make sense.

 

[K1052]

Nothing has been proposed that will really answer the question of what replaces current air travel? If fossil fuels ceased to exist tomorrow...air flight as we know it done. So much of our military runs on fossil fuels. Those don't have answers. There's just some things we don't have answers for.

IIRC, Airbus and Boeing are both eyeing hydrogen. Realistically a synthetic fuel cycle that can produce comparable product for not too high of a premium is more likely to be the answer.

I'd also favor basically ending short haul air travel in favor of rail which would save a lot of emissions.

 

[Brainonska511]

IIRC, Airbus and Boeing are both eyeing hydrogen. Realistically a synthetic fuel cycle that can produce comparable product for not too high of a premium is more likely to be the answer.

I'd also favor basically ending short haul air travel in favor of rail which would save a lot of emissions.

Also, just kill fossil fuel use where we can. It doesn't have to be treated as a "if we can't do everything, do nothing" problem.

 

[Commodus]

Nothing has been proposed that will really answer the question of what replaces current air travel? If fossil fuels ceased to exist tomorrow...air flight as we know it done. So much of our military runs on fossil fuels. Those don't have answers. There's just some things we don't have answers for.

There are some advancements on the horizon, like biofuels and hybrid engines. This will probably be one of the last industries to go zero emissions, most likely, but there will be ways to reduce those emissions before then.

 

[vi edit]

Yeah I think the "real" future isn't in the sky, but rather underground or some combination of ground/underground rail for most commercial travel. We just have shitty Amtrack as our benchmark and look at it and go "That company sucks, why would I ever want to use that more!"

And that's not a wrong take. But there's a lot of reason why that is the case. The US rail system is a shit show.

 

[nOOky]

Living in the north there have been some drawbacks keeping me from buying an electric vehicle, that those in sunnier locales may not worry about. But 5 years or so down the road hopefully options will have improved. I'm almost certain we'll have electric vehicles, it's just a matter of when.

I see challenges to trucking and rail and air freight movers, but I haven't cyphered on that enough to form an opinion. We have a fleet of semis that basically make short trips between building of just a couple of miles, to all the way across the country. I'd assume a truck ideally would be able to travel far enough to a truck plaza to charge as the driver is allowed to drive to maximize efficiency.

 

[Indus]

People love big vehicles. Until we're at a point where its economical to have a 4x4 electric/ hydrogen powered I don't see the decline in fossil fuels. But what will truly be the deathknell of fossil fuels is trucking/ shipping converting to electric/ hydrogen.

Those trucks/ ships are either on the road or in the shop for repairs. The shipping/ trucking companies have to be convinced that electric/ hydrogen is the better way vs diesel.

 

[brycejones]

People love big vehicles. Until we're at a point where its economical to have a 4x4 electric/ hydrogen powered I don't see the decline in fossil fuels. But what will truly be the deathknell of fossil fuels is trucking/ shipping converting to electric/ hydrogen.

Those trucks/ ships are either on the road or in the shop for repairs. The shipping/ trucking companies have to be convinced that electric/ hydrogen is the better way vs diesel.

You mean like the list here?

Every Electric Pickup Truck Currently on the Horizon

Ford's F-150 Lightning and Chevy's Silverado EV aren't the only battery-powered pickups that are coming soon.

www.caranddriver.com

Fleet customers are already looking hard at BEVs for last mile and local routes. These will go first as current technology supports this use case very well.

 

[sportage]

I don’t know how we’re ever going to reach the future of energy independent solar homes and flying cars if republicans have their way with fossil fuels. I never seen the uss enterprise trailing a plume of stinky fumes. Humanity has suffered from the ideology of republicans since the cavemen. It’s a wonder we have gotten as far as we have... considering. If republicans had their way we’d be fighting over the shape, size and diameter of the wheel. And how much a cave home should be taxed.

 

[brycejones]

I don’t know how we’re ever going to reach the future of energy independent solar homes and flying cars if republicans have their way with fossil fuels. I never seen the uss enterprise trailing a plume of stinky fumes. Humanity has suffered from the ideology of republicans since the cavemen. It’s a wonder we have gotten as far as we have... considering. If republicans had their way we’d be fighting over the shape, size and diameter of the wheel. And how much a cave home should be taxed.

They've tried to "save" coal and the market is still working.

 

[Vic]

No. Transportation, including personal vehicles, will continue to be fueled primarily by fossil fuels indefinitely. What is changing (and quickly) is that for reasons of efficiency and practicality, the source of that 'fueling' is being moved to power plants, etc. Because, all else being equal, those power plants are more efficient and produce fewer emissions, and because battery-powered electric vehicles are more practical for consumers (ie powerplant takes up less vehicle space and allows for better design configurations, cheaper to own and operate, etc).

 

[hal2kilo]

Living in the north there have been some drawbacks keeping me from buying an electric vehicle, that those in sunnier locales may not worry about. But 5 years or so down the road hopefully options will have improved. I'm almost certain we'll have electric vehicles, it's just a matter of when.

I see challenges to trucking and rail and air freight movers, but I haven't cyphered on that enough to form an opinion. We have a fleet of semis that basically make short trips between building of just a couple of miles, to all the way across the country. I'd assume a truck ideally would be able to travel far enough to a truck plaza to charge as the driver is allowed to drive to maximize efficiency.

I would seem to me that trucking should hang on a battery standard and go swappable. It makes sense for at least the long haulers.

 

[Torn Mind]

There's so much to unpack in this question that it's a lot like asking why healthcare is so expensive and how to we fix that?

I think ultimately the answer comes down to "use less".

EV's aren't an answer. They just push the problem a little further down the road. We still have manufacturing waste, very precious elements are required to build the batteries, and ultimately have some pretty toxic stuff we are going to have to start thinking about dealing with en masse eventually when all of these batteries start crapping out. It is true they reduce pollution on highways. Ultimately they are probably lower maintenance and just a better overall appliance for driving. Especially once self driving is much more vetted and reliable.

But we still have energy needs to fuel them. So that's still a thing. Power plants still need to charge them and with the push to renewable sources you run into demand issues. So there's a lot there that needs to be ironed out.

Nothing has been proposed that will really answer the question of what replaces current air travel? If fossil fuels ceased to exist tomorrow...air flight as we know it done. So much of our military runs on fossil fuels. Those don't have answers. There's just some things we don't have answers for.

For the rest of us, it just comes down to using less. If you work from home it doesn't matter what is in your driveway. You aren't using fuel of any sort. If you take a bike instead of a car same thing. Or a move to more functional mass transit. That's the reality that most of us will probably have to eventually accept. Denser urban environments and a lot less travel. Long term, the way rural America is structured is probably unsustainable. The costs sunk to maintain infrastructure just doesn't make sense.

Plastics and the like are still going to be used.

Mass adoption of EVs just means the refineries will just have to modify their process from the manufacture of gas and diesel to focus on other products. I mean, condoms are still in demand . Polycarbonate is a godly material and aside from being a great shield, is used for greenhouses, and pot is on its way to being the next big thing. .

The primary benefit is more political independence from the likes Saudi Arabia and the like along with better local air quality. EVs will redistribute, not cease, pollution and other ways of laying environmental waste.

It's not truly green unless cars are designed for the literal remaining lifetime of a person. Metals cost energy to form. But a car that lasts 50 years would be the end of the industry.

 

[Torn Mind]

The transition will probably happen sooner than you think.

I see it as a snowball effect. Right now we're in this awkward early phase where most EVs are still expensive and the infrastructure is still limited, but there's going to be a point in a few years where you suddenly find that $25,000 EVs are a practical reality and the charging networks are considerably better. And from there, adoption could accelerate.

I wouldn't say the end is coming in 10 years. But when GM plans to stop selling gas cars by 2035 and other brands are likely to follow suit, there could be a culture change in the next several years. When brands stop selling new gas cars, the technology will have already been on the decline for years — the only people still buying ICE vehicles by then may be niche customers or holdouts. You'll still see gas cars on the road for years after that, but they may already be the exceptions by that point.

Multifamily and already-developed communities in well-off areas are not just going to be plowed over and replaced. A giant rectangle going up to the sky and a parking lot is not going to have 500 ft of extension cords coming out of the windows going towards an owner's car.

 

[Leeea]

Wut. Amazon isn't running a fleet of trucks on cross country trips. That's done by intermodal rail.

no. Just no.

Rail in the US is the slowest snail known to human kind. It also has very high rates of theft.