Do you think the end of fossil driven vehicles is coming soon?

[Mai72]

By soon, I mean in 1 decade. Or, 5-10 years. Biden is very serious about crippling the fossil fuel industry. I could see the majority of Americans driving electric fueled cars. Many of the boomers would hate the idea, but many of those boomers are going to be too old to drive, or dead. I say let the electric cars reign. Let's get rid of all fossil driven cars. For the environment! Side Note: My only fear is how fast would all of Biden's work be overturned if and when another Republican takes office.

Biden's climate agenda: Is this the beginning of the end for fossil fuels?

The US president sets out ambitious goals as he rejoins the global effort to fight climate change.

www.bbc.com

 

[SmCaudata]

Could it? Yes. Will it? No.

Trump set us back. The industry was primed to make the leap but government made fossil fuels too attractive to abandon.

It will take a big change. We need to subsidize clean energy and stop FF subsidies. We need carbon taxes. Give tax breaks, real ones, for energy efficiency.

I suspect that by 2040 most cars will be non FF.

 

[brycejones]

No it’s a transition that will take decades. Even aggressive manufacturers are looking at more than 10 years to change over their product lines.

The transition is starting though. The transition is being driven through market forces as BEVs improve. Look at the number of vehicles under development or introduced during the last administration which wasn’t exactly friendly to BEVs.

 

[Leeea]

No. But a portion of the market will convert over. However, there are portions of the market that are ill-suited to electrification.

I for one am not interested in buying a non-fossil fuel vehicle. On my 2nd plug in hybrid now. Some days, I just have to drive a long ways and the electric options are just awful.

Also, pure electric has issues with long distance towing:
https://tflcar.com/2019/09/a-tesla-model-x-cant-tow-cross-country-watch-us-try-and-fail/


As for hydrogen, that is a fossil fuel. Nearly all of it is made with the steam-methane process. My mid-90's ford had the ability to run on hydrogen, and that tech is still dead 30 years later.

Diesel Trucks are in the same boat. There are a bunch of routes that will electrify nicely. But there are also a bunch of routes that electric will just fail on.

Lastly, the only charging network that is not a failure is the Tesla one. The other networks have high station failure rate*, expensive gottya fees, and just cost considerably more then their gas equivalent. Throwing government money at these scam based charging networks is not going to fix anything.

 

[SmCaudata]

99% of car use doesn't need a charging network. Most people drive much less than the battery capacity in a day. Plug in at night. The fact that delivery fleets are moving to electric should indicate that the "gas station" model will go the way of the dinosaur except for limited use cases. People may not like the electric options available, but 99% of Americans would be just fine with a model 3 or bolt.

Technically much of electric comes from FF. It's just more efficient to have electric cars. Hydrogen fuel cells are electric, but the cost too make them is too high right now.

Improved battery tech and green energy infrastructure is the future.

 

[KB]

Not one decade, but maybe three. First electric battery technology doesn't do very well in the cold. Second I don't think we can produce enough batteries for all those vehicles unless we change battery technology drastically.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Not one decade, but maybe three. First electric battery technology doesn't do very well in the cold. Second I don't think we can produce enough batteries for all those vehicles unless we change battery technology drastically.

i think this is the right timeframe. somewhere around 2050.

though even if new vehicle sales are 100% electric/green by 2050, you still have older ICE vehicles that will be on life support, or special use cases (heavy machinery in remote locations). so ICEs will be around for a good while yet. Maybe by 2100 when we're all dead, ICEs will no longer be a thing.

 

[Denly]

We all seeing big push on EV, that is coming and there is no stopping it. It won't be 5-10yrs more like 15-20yrs.

I am more interested on the cargo front, ships are bigger greenhouse gas producer than cars. Also Jets and trains.

 

[IronWing]

Do you think the end of fossil driven vehicles is coming soon?

Olds and BoomerD will never give up their keys.

 

[Brainonska511]

Also, pure electric has issues with long distance towing:
https://tflcar.com/2019/09/a-tesla-model-x-cant-tow-cross-country-watch-us-try-and-fail/

How many people are legitimately doing that? This country has a serious problem with people buying vehicles for extremely rare uses.

 

[Leeea]

How many people are legitimately doing that? This country has a serious problem with people buying vehicles for extremely rare uses.

I have seen a lot of u-haul trailers bouncing down the road. Then there are boats, jet skis, campers, snowmobiles, four wheelers, car dollys, and all those accessories we seem to accumulate.


On a personal level I have several trips every year that involve a trailer. Getting the boat from winter storage being one of them. I use an old already paid for full size truck for that though, and it is hard for me to see an electric one replacing it in the next few decades.

Another thing electric is poor at is practical off road. Heavy vehicles sink in the sand/mud. It is not about power or angle of attack, but rather floatation. This is a big deal in the spring when the ground is soft and a person is looking to park a now empty boat trailer for the summer.

 

[cytg111]

10 years? Yea.

This climate awareness is gonna take off, as in REALLY off, in the next couple of years, its gonna "fuel" the transition.
Given you dont put the Orange Retard back on the throne 2024, i'd say 80% of all new "cars" 2031 is gonna electric.
90%?

 

[snoopy7548]

Until they make an EV with a manual transmission, I'm sticking with ICE (for as long as they make them with manual transmissions...)

 

[pauldun170]

No

 

[Timorous]

The UK is pushing to ban sales of new ICE vehicles by 2030 and I expect a lot of other countries in the EU will follow by 2040 at the latest. Some countries might push a bit beyond that like the USA, Australia etc because they are large but the choice of ICE vehicles will be significantly cut down by then anyway because it won't be worth it for the automakers.

 

[feralkid]

Just as to the relationship of the worms to the spice...
...Who knows?

 

[desy]

Until the battery can deliver what FF can no. Everything I've read by 2030 they should be comparable on cost and features and thats when people will choose.
Its cold here, batteries don't hold up and if I get stuck in traffic for a couple of hours I don't want to freeze

 

[pete6032]

I don't think the end is in sight, at least not 10 years down the road. As @Leeea mentioned there are a number of segments where electric isn't feasible. Outside of those the big question is how do you electrify people who have no garage or ability to charge their vehicle at home? There are tens of millions of people in big cities that park their cars on the street. How are those people supposed to drive an electric vehicle? Do they have to go spend two hours in the grocery store parking lot every week to charge their car? That doesn't seem feasible.

 

[K1052]

How many people are legitimately doing that? This country has a serious problem with people buying vehicles for extremely rare uses.

There are at least a half dozen big trucks street parked around my house (they are too big to fit in the garages or carports lol) and I've seen people with a trailer on any of them exactly zero times in over a year. None of their owners also appear to have anything that would require hauling in the first place.

 

[K1052]

There are tens of millions of people in big cities that park their cars on the street. How are those people supposed to drive an electric vehicle? Do they have to go spend two hours in the grocery store parking lot every week to charge their car? That doesn't seem feasible.

If you live in a city, exclusively street park, and never go anywhere for more than say a half an hour what are you doing with a car in the first place?

 

[pete6032]

If you live in a city, exclusively street park, and never go anywhere for more than say a half an hour what are you doing with a car in the first place?

Groceries, long distance trips, and occasional jaunts to the suburbs. I live in a 25 unit building and there are two parking spaces, everyone else who owns a car parks on the street.

 

[thilanliyan]

Technically much of electric comes from FF.

Depends where you live. Here in Ontario, Canada for example more than 50% of power is from nuclear.

 

[Torn Mind]

Rhetoric from a politician is not the same as actual action.

There are four reasons the logistics will still support ICE vehicles.

1. Multifamily and townhouse infrastructure, especially older communities, were designed with traveling to a gas vehicle in mind. I'm talking old, aged 1970s grad apartment complexes.
2. Coast-to-coast trucking. Do you see a certain popular website that makes people love shopping there. Something about an abstract, barely discernable smile on those boxes? I've see much more "rough loads" like oversized concrete pipe, wood, car haulers, etc, where a giant battery pack will not fit.
3. Sparsely populated rural areas and "ruralish suburbia" barely served by bus service or none at all.
4. Occupations with heavy driving where recharges is lost time, which means lost money. Taxis, real estate agents, food delivery.

Upper middle class residential city dwellers and quasi-"lively" suburbia oftentimes they are the only people that live on this planet and thus do not realize the concrete and asphast grassland with a few trees here are or there do not realize that making a farmer and their smaller lot neighbors ride the bus is not logistically feasible.

My sources? A mix of high and low. I've delivered pizzas for suburban Dominos for three "municipalities"(Maybe 3 sq miles at most of land in an aged, corrupt county with the wealthiest African American population in the nation, corrupt cops that had a likely racist white chief, super high taxes, and still manage to look like it's poor. *-You will not forget deliver to multifamily apartments because those deliveries SUCK walking-wise compared to going to a single family house. Then those commercial business you never pay attention to also wanna have a pizza, so you go to gov buildings, businesses, churches, etc. I even know Spanish-speakers say Hawaiian and Ha-why-an-a.

My mom, being able to save money really well, decided to buy a residential property is "ruralish" suburbia where there be no bus service and ten miles away from the closest developed suburban area with a "FULL SET" of stores, where there are Walmarts, Home Depots, UPS store and the like. The small "town" has a Safeway, some national chains like Advance Auto, a new Autozone, Dominos, etc. The ruralish house is four miles away from this little "speck of commercial development".
Suddenly, the pickup truck or similar bigger vehicles starts making some sense(but NOT a necessity) if you want to "load her up" for the one trip to shop for your stuff.

 

[K1052]

Groceries, long distance trips, and occasional jaunts to the suburbs. I live in a 25 unit building and there are two parking spaces, everyone else who owns a car parks on the street.

I'd probably argue that it is better not to own from a financial perspective if this is the limit of their utility. I presume some of those people drive to work though (where charging could be). When I lived in Chicago a lot of long term street parked cars lived in a state of semi-abandonedness...you could always spot them when sweeping days came around.

 

[rstrohkirch]

This may sound silly but I'm not sure why this has even developed into much of a discussion. You already have multiple car manufacturers with "near" full electric road maps by 2035 or sooner. In a couple of years you'll see the same road maps for the other car producers. So currently, 15 years is roughly when we'll see the large majority of all new vehicles produced by major manufacturers as electric. The recent administration did their best to make fossil fuels enticing and yet car producers were still putting out these major road maps centered on electrifying their line ups. It doesn't matter if you have another admin like Trumps or someone who's more aggressive, they're already in process of a change over and nothing is going to change that.

I know there aren't a ton of car people here but for everyone's reference, the next model change out for quite a few vehicles are going to be full electric. I can think of over a dozen major models that are turning electric on their next refresh.