Do you believe that Israel will preemptively attack Iran? If yes, when?

[ZzZGuy]

Oh, and I call BS on Israel using nukes on Iran if they go it alone. They probably can hit enough nuclear related targets but not much else. People seem to be confused by Iraq, thinking that all military attacks on a nation must involve total destruction of said countries military followed by occupation. While just a stalling tactic against Iran, it could work if they have proof of what Iran is doing to get proper sanctions and possible further military action.

 

[Ozoned]

In reply to anyone who says or thinks, "I disagree that an Iranian retaliation is more than Israel can withstand, though. Retaliate with what, exactly?"

I can only say that I play chess and I think the range of Iranian options would be very wide. Even if I or anyone else cannot predict in advance what the Iranian response would be.

But anyone who is even half way decent at chess always thinks in terms of what is the meanest and nastiest thing my opponent can do to me if I make some given move. And I particularly like to play stupid players who invest everything into attack and nothing into defense. I usually beat off such an attack, then just swivel the pieces I have dedicated to defense and go on the offensive. And find my foolish opponent has left himself naked in terms of mounting any defense.

I note some have noted Hezbollah and Hamas are somewhat Iranian proxies, but Hezbollah is the only group that has acquired any the fruits of Iran's quite substantial home grown weapons programs. And that may have been an accident as Hezbollah
acquired weapons meant for Syria. But back in 2005, what Hezbollah got was enough to totally blunt an Israeli ground based offensive into Lebanon. And Israel was losing state of the arts tanks and spent 2 weeks trying to go 20 miles. Yet in 2008, Hamas, without any defensive Iranian weapons got totally raped.

I therefore suggest just one Iranian option would be to flood the zone with first class Iranian weapons, which would have disastrous consequences to Israel and quite possibly the US occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan.

And that is just one option among many many many options Iran would have. Another Iranian option would be to shut down the Persian gulf to all surface based shipping. That alone would cause a huge increase in oil prices and cause an almost instant depression for any oil based economy in the world. And I have not even started to really think about all the other Iranian options that 80 million Iranians would feel as perfectly justified given a sneaky attack on the scale of Peal Harbor or 911.

Nor am I per say thinking in terms of how weak such an Israeli attack would be. Iran, unlike Iraq or Syria, is at the extreme range of Israeli air force. They would have to sacrifice all self defense capacity of their aircraft just to have the range. And overfly hostile countries that would not be amused. And then not be able to use conventional bombs to any effect in terms of damaging numerous deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities. And in a worst case scenario, Israel could send in its planes and have everyone of them shot down well short of any targets.

In saying all that, for me chess is a game, and a game I like to play with my friends. Its a piss poor way to live your life on a what is the meanest and nastiest thing I can do
basis. But when you go to war, it becomes the calculus. Iran may be able to start a war, but the long odds are Iran will finish it as Israel plays they bet their lives in an over reach.

I am so fvcking good at chess that I don't even have to play to win.

You CAN'T dismiss the zealots that dominate the political landscape in Iran and Israel.

When you hear that Damascus has been Nuked, you'll know the War has started.

 

[fskimospy]

If Israel thinks that they can destroy all or substantially all of Iran's nuclear program, they will definitely attack. From what I've read so far it doesn't really look like that's possible, so my gut instinct is to say no. Israel is extremely aggressive however, so I'm not wedded to this position super strongly.

 

[ericlp]

not gonna happen with out the USA's and China's blessing.

End of story....

 

[shira]

Israel will attack if no other option is better.

"No better option" means Iran's development of a nuke is imminent, and no other country is doing anything serious to stop it.

If Iran undergoes regime change, but development of nukes continues. Israel would still attack, given no better option.

Israel would use nukes to destroy Iran's nukes only if the Iranian nukes were otherwise unreachable.

Assuming Iran keeps insisting it's nuclear development program is peaceable but still blocks unfettered inspections by the IAEA, the best Israeli approach by far would be to announce to Iran that an Israeli attack is imminent and that the only way to stop it is to allow immediate unfettered inspections. At that point, an interesting game of chicken (not chess) would occur.

 

[Jhhnn]

My favorite part of all of this is the assumption of facts not in evidence, that the Iranians are, in fact, producing weapons grade uranium, and that the IAEA inspectors onsite in their operational facilities wouldn't be able to tell if they were.

Hogwash.

When and if the Iranians refuse access to an operational site, that'd be a red flag. By treaty, they don't have to reveal the existence of any site until 6 months prior to the introduction of nuclear material.

Get out your globes, ravers, take a look, realize that any Israeli attack would have to cross airspace swept by American radar 24/7/365. That coverage extends from the Caucuses to the Cape of Oman and beyond. That would *obviously* require American complicity, along with crossing the airspace of several sovereign states in the process. If you think we have problems in Afghanistan and Iraq, those would pale in comparison to what would happen with active Iranian involvement.

Israeli nukes? Get real. Israel would become the kind of Pariah that not even the Bush regime could defend, let alone the Obama Admin. Economic and military cooperation with other nations would cease to exist. Israel is far from self sufficient, depending heavily on trade. Regime change wouldn't come to Iran, but rather to Israel, one way or another. The Iranian regime would be hugely strengthened in the process, and would ultimately retaliate, if it took 30 years to do so. They have their own patriots, who spilled enormous amounts of blood in suicidal attacks repulsing the Iraqi invaders, and would have ultimately crushed Iraq if the West hadn't made it clear such wouldn't be allowed.

But, go ahead, keep fantasizing. The only problem is that the Israeli leadership may just be fantasizing right along with you. If they fulfill those fantasies, it'll spell their doom, and the doom of literally millions of people.

 

[ZzZGuy]

My favorite part of all of this is the assumption of facts not in evidence, that the Iranians are, in fact, producing weapons grade uranium, and that the IAEA inspectors onsite in their operational facilities wouldn't be able to tell if they were.

<snip>

Question is, how quickly can Iran turn the nuclear material from a civilian program into weapons grade material?

This is why "the west" gets their panties in a bunch every time Iran increases their enrichment capacity. A nuke minus the nuclear material is totally separate from everything else making it possible to hide. There is just little evidence of a nuclear weapons program until they have a nuclear weapon.

Also note the deal offered to enrich and/or exchange Iran's nuclear material with nuclear material that has been processed in such a way that nuclear weapons can not be made with it. As for the dirty bomb option, I don't know if this would address that as well (knowing that it is just a bomb dispersing nuclear material).

 

[JEDIYoda]

Israel will attack if no other option is better.

"No better option" means Iran's development of a nuke is imminent, and no other country is doing anything serious to stop it.

If Iran undergoes regime change, but development of nukes continues. Israel would still attack, given no better option.

Israel would use nukes to destroy Iran's nukes only if the Iranian nukes were otherwise unreachable. israel would never use nukes unless as a nation they were on the edge of being wiped out!!-- It is dumb and stoopid and irresponsible of you to make such and ignorant statement!!

Assuming Iran keeps insisting it's nuclear development program is peaceable but still blocks unfettered inspections by the IAEA, the best Israeli approach by far would be to announce to Iran that an Israeli attack is imminent and that the only way to stop it is to allow immediate unfettered inspections. At that point, an interesting game of chicken (not chess) would occur.

 

[JEDIYoda]

My favorite part of all of this is the assumption of facts not in evidence, that the Iranians are, in fact, producing weapons grade uranium, and that the IAEA inspectors onsite in their operational facilities wouldn't be able to tell if they were.

Hogwash.

When and if the Iranians refuse access to an operational site, that'd be a red flag. By treaty, they don't have to reveal the existence of any site until 6 months prior to the introduction of nuclear material.

Get out your globes, ravers, take a look, realize that any Israeli attack would have to cross airspace swept by American radar 24/7/365. That coverage extends from the Caucuses to the Cape of Oman and beyond. That would *obviously* require American complicity, along with crossing the airspace of several sovereign states in the process. If you think we have problems in Afghanistan and Iraq, those would pale in comparison to what would happen with active Iranian involvement. you are dreaming....there are enough arab nations that are afraid of a nuclear Iran that with or without the permission of other countries including our they would launcgh an attack! YES-- we would turn a blind eye because there are enough countries afraid of a nuclear iran that there would be no consequesnces to us allowing Israel into Iraqi airspace!!

Israeli nukes? Get real. Israel would become the kind of Pariah that not even the Bush regime could defend, let alone the Obama Admin. Economic and military cooperation with other nations would cease to exist. Israel is far from self sufficient, depending heavily on trade. Regime change wouldn't come to Iran, but rather to Israel, one way or another. The Iranian regime would be hugely strengthened in the process, and would ultimately retaliate, if it took 30 years to do so. They have their own patriots, who spilled enormous amounts of blood in suicidal attacks repulsing the Iraqi invaders, and would have ultimately crushed Iraq if the West hadn't made it clear such wouldn't be allowed. again Shirea does not undestand israel at allk. Shira has no clue what they would or would not do!!

But, go ahead, keep fantasizing. The only problem is that the Israeli leadership may just be fantasizing right along with you. If they fulfill those fantasies, it'll spell their doom, and the doom of literally millions of people.

lol

 

[Generator]

The Jews have given Iran the rest of this year to submit on nuclear ambitions. I would assume Israel would attack during the new year just like that did the last. This fight needs to happen. I have no ill will towards either side. But one of them needs to go away for the worlds sake.

 

[gingermeggs]

I reckon if they do, they'll get nuke smoke happening in Tel Aviv, to pretend that iran isn't WMD capable now is naieve..................................................

 

[theflyingpig]

I reckon if they do, they'll get nuke smoke happening in Tel Aviv, to pretend that iran isn't WMD capable now is naieve..................................................

To pretend that Iran isn't WMD capable is what?

 

[gingermeggs]

The Jews have given Iran the rest of this year to submit on nuclear ambitions. I would assume Israel would attack during the new year just like that did the last. This fight needs to happen. I have no ill will towards either side. But one of them needs to go away for the worlds sake.

Guess u like nuke smoke!

 

[gingermeggs]

To pretend that Iran isn't WMD capable is what?

DUMASSED, Damascus

 

[gingermeggs]

To pretend that Iran isn't WMD capable is what?

Du Haste mit?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4BOZlkzpD4

 

[theflyingpig]

DUMASSED, Damascus

Sorry, I'm not getting you, could you repeat that please? Thanks.

 

[gingermeggs]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SoW5-tLe-U

 

[gingermeggs]

Sorry, I'm not getting you, could you repeat that please? Thanks.

maybe that song cleans u up with the Idea, They maid* a great buffer to west corporate interests, but its getting to hot matey!
remember not all "lefts" are liberals~
Oneday soon the yids will smoke hard!

 

[dahunan]

Israel should preemptively attack itself

 

[Zebo]

My favorite part of all of this is the assumption of facts not in evidence, that the Iranians are, in fact, producing weapons grade uranium, and that the IAEA inspectors onsite in their operational facilities wouldn't be able to tell if they were.

Hogwash.

When and if the Iranians refuse access to an operational site, that'd be a red flag. By treaty, they don't have to reveal the existence of any site until 6 months prior to the introduction of nuclear material.

Get out your globes, ravers, take a look, realize that any Israeli attack would have to cross airspace swept by American radar 24/7/365. That coverage extends from the Caucuses to the Cape of Oman and beyond. That would *obviously* require American complicity, along with crossing the airspace of several sovereign states in the process. If you think we have problems in Afghanistan and Iraq, those would pale in comparison to what would happen with active Iranian involvement.

Israeli nukes? Get real. Israel would become the kind of Pariah that not even the Bush regime could defend, let alone the Obama Admin. Economic and military cooperation with other nations would cease to exist. Israel is far from self sufficient, depending heavily on trade. Regime change wouldn't come to Iran, but rather to Israel, one way or another. The Iranian regime would be hugely strengthened in the process, and would ultimately retaliate, if it took 30 years to do so. They have their own patriots, who spilled enormous amounts of blood in suicidal attacks repulsing the Iraqi invaders, and would have ultimately crushed Iraq if the West hadn't made it clear such wouldn't be allowed.

But, go ahead, keep fantasizing. The only problem is that the Israeli leadership may just be fantasizing right along with you. If they fulfill those fantasies, it'll spell their doom, and the doom of literally millions of people.

I generally agree with all this except silly notion that ragtag mujaheddeen is giving us problems and by extension would give Israeli problems. Don't mistake nation building and policing we are getting involved with for warfare. Please don't confuse the two and the second would be much more horrible than anything you could imagine. If we felt like conquering anywhere besides Russia we would go into "Total War" mode (see wiki) and war would be over in a day(s). Israel could do the same in their immediate neighborhood.

 

[QuantumPion]

If I were Israel I would build a doomsday nuclear device ala Dr. Strangelove.

 

[Jhhnn]

I generally agree with all this except silly notion that ragtag mujaheddeen is giving us problems and by extension would give Israeli problems.

Yeh, the mujahedin, the taliban, the Afghan insurgents aren't giving us any trouble at all, basically w/o Iranian help... which is why we committed another 30K troops to quelling that insurgency... And if you decry the level of support Iran allegedly gives to Iraqi insurgents, Hamas, and the Lebanese Hezbollah, watch what happens if the Israelis bomb Iran... It'd be like hitting a hornets' nest with a stick, standing around to see what happens next...

 

[Modelworks]

Israel will do nothing unless it is really really necessary. Iran has been testing detonation devices though, and that isn't something they can explain away as peaceful purposes. Iran will not do anything though because they know it would be suicide. Unless you get someone who is 100&#37; insane to push the button all this stuff between Iran and Israel is two kids bumping chest on the playground for who is the best.

 

[Modelworks]

Oh, and I call BS on Israel using nukes on Iran if they go it alone. They probably can hit enough nuclear related targets but not much else. People seem to be confused by Iraq, thinking that all military attacks on a nation must involve total destruction of said countries military followed by occupation. While just a stalling tactic against Iran, it could work if they have proof of what Iran is doing to get proper sanctions and possible further military action.

The Israeli air force has more than enough capability to completely destroy anything Iran has just using conventional bombs. People seem to think all Israel has is a bunch of nukes , but they also have a well equipped air force.

2006
The IAF flew more than 12,000 combat missions during this war. The most notable mission, taking place during the second day of the war, resulted in the IAF destroying 59 Iranian-supplied medium- and long-range missile launchers in just 34 minutes

In September 2007, the Israeli Air Force successfully bombed an alleged Syrian nuclear reactor in Operation Orchard.
During Operation Cast Lead (2008&#8211;2009), Israel Air Force had a main role in destroying Hamas facilities and targets in the Gaza Strip, carrying out more than 2,360 air strikes until the end of the campaign.

They would have no problem destroying the ability of Iran to make war.

 

[Jhhnn]

How long do you think the Israelis could keep it up, Modelworks?

Do you think they could do so for 10 years or so, which is what the Iranians did in a total war effort against the Iraqi invaders?

Your bravado is touching, if completely lame.