Intel has a long, long, long, LONG way to go before they can catch up to the discrete GPU market. I give it another 3 years. By Skymont time, they should be up there.
I think by the time AMD is on 14nm the discrete GPU market will be purely niche. The discrete GPU in consumer desktops is definitely a dying market.
This is a fallacy because Intel is chasing a moving target.
Unless you feel Intel's iGPU will have a massive perf/mm2 and perf/w magical gains to compete with discrete graphics with 150-200mm2 dies and ~150W TDP, theres no way they will threaten the gamer's market. Sure, they can catch up in a few years versus current stuff, but by then, the same segment with >$100 discrete is still going to crush iGPU.
Given these factors we can be assured the discrete market will not disappear:
1) Graphics workloads will continue to increase (graphics will keep getting better, scientific workloads will still make use of more speed)
2) Graphics performance scales with the number of processing elements, and thus performance scales with die size.
3) There is a practical limit on the die size of an CPU (or any ASIC) from both a yield and heat production stand-point.
As long as there is a ever-increasing workload, there will be an ever-increasing discrete GPU market that wishes to push to the limits of die size for performance. An APU by definition will never be able to dedicate as much of the space budget to graphics as a dedicated graphics card could.
Conclusion: unless graphics workloads (or any workload suitable for a GPU, a market which GPU Compute is actively expanding) plateau, there will be dedicated GPUs
1) Graphics workloads will continue to increase (graphics will keep getting better, scientific workloads will still make use of more speed)
2) Graphics performance scales with the number of processing elements, and thus performance scales with die size.
3) There is a practical limit on the die size of an CPU (or any ASIC) from both a yield and heat production stand-point.
As long as there is a ever-increasing workload, there will be an ever-increasing discrete GPU market that wishes to push to the limits of die size for performance. An APU by definition will never be able to dedicate as much of the space budget to graphics as a dedicated graphics card could.
Conclusion: unless graphics workloads (or any workload suitable for a GPU, a market which GPU Compute is actively expanding) plateau, there will be dedicated GPUs
TheReaWarmonger
Member
- Jan 31, 2013
- 108
- 0
- 0
Which is win/win for AMD. People who want top notch gaming experience will go out and buy a dedicated AMD graphics card "ka-ching!". And for others who don't need so much horsepower, will just go out and buy a APU since its most cost efficient "ka-ching!". I think AMD supporting a APU socket for at least a guaranteed 3 years should be their next goal. Such a stunt will win over a huge portion of the desktop market share. Especially when it comes upgrade time, you can just go out and buy a new CPU and GPU for $150 that comes in the same box and drop it in. No need to change out the cooling unit or anything else as it will always fit that same board (TDP is always going down), maybe a simple bios update and that's it. AMD has a chance to turn their discrete GPU market and their APU market into a big chance at redemption (to dig themselves out of their debt hole). They just have to play their cards right, and the first hand starts with steamroller.
I said AMD. Maybe Intel will dramatically improve their iGPU, and maybe they won't. AMD will though.
If AMD can produce an APU that offers acceptable 1080 performance it'll be more like $300.
LOL
they would sell 5-6 of those
$114.99 gets you acceptable 1080 performance TODAY
allowing you to go wild with $180 Haswell tomorrow and laugh all the way to the bank at those 5-6 suckers
Cerb
Elite Member
- Aug 26, 2000
- 17,484
- 33
- 86
$115+$180=$295. So, you laugh at 3DVagabond, then show that his cost estimate is approximately the current cost.
So, look, by your own numbers, the current cost is already $300. While they wouldn't sell to many such APUs, that's part of why they aren't making them. It's much more an integration issue, right now, than one of being technically infeasible.
Last edited:
I was aiming a bit higher than that, ~HD7850 performance, and having it in the power envelope of a desktop CPU.
Cerb
Elite Member
- Aug 26, 2000
- 17,484
- 33
- 86
So is Titan, at ~$1000, offering even more performance. Much like with the previous post, I don't get it--that it exists is kind of the point. The point was and is that it should be technically possible for them to make such an APU (they could definitely do it as an MCM), but that the cost would be prohibitive, and the demand isn't there for something costing so much (more expensive CPU, more expensive mobo, more expensive CPU cooler). You would need to not be able to get that kind of performance for that kind of money, to make it worth them even trying to create such an APU (again, like the core i7: if you need/want more CPU performance, it and Xeons of similar cost are your best options, and people are willing to pay the premium). The only way to make it even approach economic feasibility would be if per-pin memory bandwidth were cheaper, by a factor of 4 or more, today, with room to improve, or for CPU sockets to die off quickly, though that would still leave power (particularly, thermal density) being an issue.That is ~7850 performance, and it's available (@Cerb) TODAY
That is ~7850 performance, and it's available (@Cerb) TODAY
A10-5800K Trinity goes for $129.99
They would _really have to reinvent themselves in order to charge $300 for APU.
But sure why not? There is something sexy about having all those capabilities on a single chip. BRING IT ON AMD :ninja:
Didn't notice that the card you linked to was a boost model. I hadn't realized the price had dropped so fast on it. AMD will have to also improve the CPU side for my futuristic APU to be worth $300.
That is ~7850 performance, and it's available (@Cerb) TODAY
A10-5800K Trinity goes for $129.99
They would _really have to reinvent themselves in order to charge $300 for APU.
But sure why not? There is something sexy about having all those capabilities on a single chip. BRING IT ON AMD :ninja:
That GTX650ti Boost is actually sub 7850 performance. On that particular card they castrated the VRAM speed compared to the 2gb model.
Memory
Effective Memory Clock: 5010MHz
cmdrdredd
Lifer
- Dec 12, 2001
- 27,052
- 357
- 126
Except that Nvidia has higher pricing but still sells more cards. AMD lowered prices but still can't grab the market share overall. Nvidia is more trusted in general. The general buyer would go to the local computer/tech store and be directed to an Nvidia card because it's likely that fewer systems come in with problems due to the GPU with Nvidia systems seeing as most people out there aren't updating to the latest drivers like they should. We all know that AMD has come a long way recently with drivers so I am sure there are some out there on super old driver sets having issues and not being knowledgeable about tech stuff drop their PC off at the local shop.
As for the CPU...it's Intel. AMD hasn't been able to touch Intel since they dropped the P4. Unlikely people will suddenly jump overnight just because of an APU.
cmdrdredd
Lifer
- Dec 12, 2001
- 27,052
- 357
- 126
Yep that's what I mean.
Generally in the past you could say with a straight face and no falsehoods that Nvidia had better drivers. People here know drivers have evolved a ton over the last year+. The guy down at the local microcenter helping some dude pick a new video card for Battlefield 4? Maybe not. He might base his recommendation on brand recognition, what they sell more of, and what comes in for tech support more often. I don't think the salesperson down at the local frys, tigerdirect, microcenter etc is the best representation of the reality of things in terms of getting accurate information about products. However, they are usually the last person before a customer hits checkout. I frequently pop into the tigerdirect by my house to browse and I must say that 9 times out of 10 people buy Nvidia cards (usually something slower than a GTX 670) based on some guy who was hired to help on the floor saying something to the effect of "I never have problems with Nvidia cards" or "AMD cards have driver problems". Without being specific about it. I could stand there and pick apart the argument but I'd probably confuse the guy buying the card.
The problem is that AMD needs to overcome a situation that exists where they are viewed as a second choice rather than a direct alternative. In the minds of many Nvidia is known for their graphics cards. It probably doesn't help that over the last few years AMD's CPU reputation has declined and it's generally viewed as inferior to Intel. That has got to play a role sometimes in the minds of certain segments.
For us here, we know all about beta drivers and fixes and radeon pro and about the game bundles and all the tech stuff including overclocking. The guy who just bought a new game and his old GPU won't play it so he runs down to the local computer store(doesn't know about newegg and amazon etc? No.
It's not like they aren't aware of it. So, we'll see what they do. Expanding the GE program is a step in the right direction.
As far as what store staff suggest, it's whatever makes them more money, etc... AMD could implement a salesperson incentive program offering either money or free gear for selling AMD cards. Companies do stuff like that all of the time.
TheReaWarmonger
Member
- Jan 31, 2013
- 108
- 0
- 0
Smells like a quite a bit of fanboyism.
I think Nvidia's reputation has ran its course over the past couple of years. After what Tahiti did to Kepler, there is more than a quite of few people saying they may switch sides. Nvidia no longer builds the best GPU's, the 7970 to 680 lays testament to that. If AMD can deliver with Volcanic Islands, then Nvidia's market share will be in a world of hurt (regardless if they release before AMD). Not to mention a large margin of discrete GPU users moving to APU's. Don't mistake that AMD isn't selling massive amounts of Tahiti stock. They just need to keep their head above water from here on out (if they ever want to keep from going bankrupt). And sure Intel will give you maybe 5-10 extra frames in a few CPU bound games. But the price point doesn't justify them few extra frames. Right now a FX-6300 will run any game on ultra without even breaking a sweat (for under $130). People this day in age aren't all about the best of the best in core performance, especially with the economy still in ruins. Regardless to what skewed statistics say, I have my doubts the margin of Nvidia based cards sold over AMD is more than a very few (this gen). The same goes for Intel and AMD based processors, for every person out there willing to spend the $220 for a "good" gaming processor. There is two who simply cannot afford it, and will go with what offers them similar (sometimes better) gaming performance at nearly half the cost. I personally would take a FX-6350 and a HD 7970 over a 3570k and a GTX 660ti. Which will cost me no extra time in CPU bound tasks. Unless you use your computer for time limited tasks on a regular basis (every day) Intel IPC is wasted. Not to mention Intel processors can't match the raw compute power of an APU. Once Kaveri releases Intel will still be king of IPC, just no longer king of high end compute power. What you could do on a $350 4770k in 30 seconds, I could do on a $150 7800k in 10 seconds. OpenCL opened the door for HSAIL, and once you see benchmark comparisons between the two in applications like Photoshop (which I imagine will utilize HSA eventually). You will be shocked at how large of a margin there is difference between the two. All it would take is AMD to sell on this base point and all of Intel's claims of being the fastest in the world will go right down the crap chute. And I might sound like a fanboy myself, but I assure you I am not. I just know what HSA will offer as being a programmer, and know exactly how the architecture will work (at an instruction level). There's a lot of people out there that have no interest in purchasing dedicated GPU's, but do simply because on-board has always been a draw back. As I said in previous posts, the era of the APU has only just began. And AMD is still far from perfecting it, Kaveri will be the next biggest step for AMD as a company. If Kaveri lives up to expectations, a lot of things are going to change. OpenCL applications are scarce and few only due to it being incredibly painful to program in. With Kaveri you don't need to do anything other than allocate a pointer, and pass the pointer back and forth between the CPU and iGPU. You'll start seeing HSAIL driven applications more and more after Kaveri launches. With these huge performance optimizations only being applicable to AMD based APU's.
Last edited:
cmdrdredd
Lifer
- Dec 12, 2001
- 27,052
- 357
- 126
Smells like a quite a bit of fanboyism.
I think Nvidia's reputation has ran its course over the past couple of years. After what Tahiti did to Kepler, there is more than a quite of few people saying they may switch sides. Nvidia no longer builds the best GPU's, the 7970 to 680 lays testament to that. If AMD can deliver with Volcanic Islands, then Nvidia's market share will be in a world of hurt (regardless if they release before AMD). Not to mention a large margin of discrete GPU users moving to APU's. Don't mistake that AMD isn't selling massive amounts of Tahiti stock. They just need to keep their head above water from here on out (if they ever want to keep from going bankrupt). And sure Intel will give you maybe 5-10 extra frames in a few CPU bound games. But the price point doesn't justify them few extra frames. Right now a FX-6300 will run any game on ultra without even breaking a sweat (for under $130). People this day in age aren't all about the best of the best in core performance, especially with the economy still in ruins. Regardless to what skewed statistics say, I have my doubts the margin of Nvidia based cards sold over AMD is more than a very few (this gen). The same goes for Intel and AMD based processors, for every person out there willing to spend the $220 for a "good" gaming processor. There is two who simply cannot afford it, and will go with what offers them similar (sometimes better) gaming performance at nearly half the cost. I personally would take a FX-6350 and a HD 7970 over a 3570k and a GTX 660ti. Which will cost me no extra time in CPU bound tasks. Unless you use your computer for time limited tasks on a regular basis (every day) Intel IPC is wasted. Not to mention Intel processors can't match the raw compute power of an APU. Once Kaveri releases Intel will still be king of IPC, just no longer king of high end compute power. What you could do on a $350 4770k in 30 seconds, I could do on a $150 7800k in 10 seconds. OpenCL opened the door for HSAIL, and once you see benchmark comparisons between the two in applications like Photoshop (which I imagine will utilize HSA eventually). You will be shocked at how large of a margin there is difference between the two. All it would take is AMD to sell on this base point and all of Intel's claims of being the fastest in the world will go right down the crap chute. And I might sound like a fanboy myself, but I assure you I am not. I just know what HSA will offer as being a programmer, and know exactly how the architecture will work (at an instruction level). There's a lot of people out there that have no interest in purchasing dedicated GPU's, but do simply because on-board has always been a draw back. As I said in previous posts, the era of the APU has only just began. And AMD is still far from perfecting it, Kaveri will be the next biggest step for AMD as a company. If Kaveri lives up to expectations, a lot of things are going to change. OpenCL applications are scarce and few only due to it being incredibly painful to program in. With Kaveri you don't need to do anything other than allocate a pointer, and pass the pointer back and forth between the CPU and iGPU. You'll start seeing HSAIL driven applications more and more after Kaveri launches. With these huge performance optimizations only being applicable to AMD based APU's.
Wow you really don't get it. Look I'll make it simple. The majority of the market does not come on forums and they know nothing about GPUs. They only buy what they are recommended at the store and that is most often an nvidia card.
You think people are buying Intel CPUs because they get 10 fps more or something? No because they are faster at everything people do at a given clock speed.
Hint: you aren't buying a 3570k for compute...
Last edited:
The HTPC market is an enthusiast market - most people would just buy a smart TV to do that sort of thing, or use the box provided by their satellite/cable contract. Hence I doubt computer stores sell many HTPC's for any amount of money - they'll sell them a tv or other box that does it simply (and that's probably using an arm chip).
cmdrdredd
Lifer
- Dec 12, 2001
- 27,052
- 357
- 126
I'm not even talking about prebuilt. I'm not talking about GPUs that are over $300 even. Read my previous example. Guy got new game and he had old GPU, forget what it was. I overhear recommendation for GTX 660(non ti) based on resolution of 1920x1080. Not even mentioning the AMD offering at all. Customer knew nothing, just that his game didn't work on old card. Could have sold him more expensive card but didn't. He would have probably bought a GTX 680 if it was recommended, that's how absolutely clueless he was. All he cared about was that his new game worked.
Also, I always recommend Intel not based on price. Based on performance. You're fooling yourself if you think every recommendation of a 3570k over an FX-8350 is based on higher price.
Last edited:
TheReaWarmonger
Member
- Jan 31, 2013
- 108
- 0
- 0
Sure you are, why else would you buy a processor unless you're going to crunch numbers on it (compute). There are a lot of real world scenario's of people buying Nvidia cards simply because they don't know none the wiser. Tho I am speaking from an enthusiast standpoint, there aren't really that many more Nivida cards sold on Newegg than AMD. Also Intel surely can execute tasks faster than AMD's offerings. But you have to keep what I said in my previous post in mind. You can't surf the web faster on a i7 even versus my old Athlon II x3. Every day tasks are mediocre for either manufactures products (AMD stated this themselves once before). You don't need to spend the extra $100 to save a meager hundred milliseconds in execution time. The only time Intel sets itself apart from heard is when you fire up benchmarks, or put task heavy loads onto the unit. Tho even then a $170 FX-8350 costs less than a 3570k and will pretty much level it in them same tasks. It's hard to be biased with either manufacture, because Intel's flaws are AMD's gains and AMD flaws are Intel's gains. I guess what it boils down to is what side you choose. More so if money is not an issue, Intel would be the way to go. Tho if you're not looking to spend $1000 on your next rig. You can build a AMD rig that will run everything almost up to par for less than $800. And yea I do get it, you're just viewing it as a whole when i'm not. I enjoy looking at things from our perspective, I could care less what your average joe gets suckered into buying (sounds harsh but they aren't here to discuss it
). Which ultimately doesn't mean Nvidia is better, same holds true for the AMD vs Intel debate that's been going on since forever. I don't really want to turn the thread into a AMD vs Intel or AMD vs Nvidia debate. Tho the truth of the matter is AMD is bringing forth great technologies neither Intel nor Nvidia has been cable of for the past couple years. HSA is a huge step forward, and I can guarantee Intel will adopt it at some point. With the addition of GCN compute units being added to Kaveri, the discrete market will being its very slow decline to death. It really rests in the hands of AMD and if they wish to offer higher cost high performance APU's (in addition to current grade APU's).TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 25K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 21K
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 23K
-
-
Facebook
Twitter