Digital Camera market forecast...

[Deadtrees]

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2087769&enterthread=y

Those two cameras are nothing but groud breaking. Those two cameras, surely, will change digital camera market. No longer Canon is the leading man but they, all of the sudden, became the challenger just like how they were once before.

Given the size of two companies (Canon is 8 times bigger) and how Nikon has had hard time when it came to digital cameras due to the lack of having their own sensor and quality image processing, I didn't think Nikon would be able to push it this far.
Now, not only their image processing is as good as that of Canon, they also have their own sensors. All of them being FF sensors!

What's great about this is that Canon is now forced to come up with really serious cameras.
They can't play the game the way they played. No longer they' won't be able to save users-wanted-it-so bad functions for later and later years. I bet fully funtional Spot-metering system will be finally there on xxD series. I bet Canon will be busy introducing extra features, extra features in which Canon has been saving for later and later years, on their upcoming cameras. Canon doesn't have enough time. They'll have to be crazy just like how Nikon is crazy, otherwise they'll see their users leaving and new users going for Nikon which already has been happening in recent years.

What's even more interesting is that it's not only Canon and Nikon in serious competition: There's Sony. There has alreay been high expectations for Sony's two upcoming mid-range and flagship DSLRs given how Sony is into this market. At this point, nobody really knows what Sony holds beside that the flagship one will be a FF camera. Whatever they have, it had better be a damn good one. Otherwise their plan, a plan that they will beat Nikon with those two, will be just ruined.

The botoom line is that the market will be changed more than ever before. I'm sure we will be able to have far better cameras at cheaper prices. I'm sure we'll see the battle of mid-range FF cameras within a year. Being a Canon 5D user, I thought about making a jump after and after 5D's successor came along. Now, I'm pretty positive that 5D MK2 will be even better than 5D MK3 I pictured of and that it'd be worth to make jump for the next one.
In addition, given how D300 is NOT a successor of D200 but a separte line-up of its own, there's already a rumor that next generaion of D200 be a FF one. A camera like D200 being FF, that's mindblowing.

 

[tfinch2]

Are you a Nikon fanboy?

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
D300 is NOT a successor of D200 but a separate line-up of its own

what makes you say that?

 

[Deadtrees]

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Are you a Nikon fanboy?

I'm a Canon 5D user. Before I was a Pentax user.
I don't care whether it's Canon, Nikon, Sony, or whatever, as long those companies compete each other and come out with decent products, I'd like them.

 

[Deadtrees]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
D300 is NOT a successor of D200 but a separate line-up of its own

what makes you say that?

Because Nikon rep. said so.

 

[fuzzybabybunny]

I wonder how the sensor thing works. Canon does all the sensor stuff in house, from designing to fabrication. Nikon has Sony sensors, but I don't know how their relationship is:

Is Nikon designing the sensors and just contracting the fabrication out to Sony?
Is Nikon contracting out BOTH sensor design and fabrication out to Sony? Kind of an awkward relationship.
Is Nikon going to attempt to install sensor fabrication facilities of their own, or just keep on relying on Sony, a competitor?

 

[AndrewR]

Originally posted by: fuzzybabybunny
I wonder how the sensor thing works. Canon does all the sensor stuff in house, from designing to fabrication. Nikon has Sony sensors, but I don't know how their relationship is:

Is Nikon designing the sensors and just contracting the fabrication out to Sony?
Is Nikon contracting out BOTH sensor design and fabrication out to Sony? Kind of an awkward relationship.
Is Nikon going to attempt to install sensor fabrication facilities of their own, or just keep on relying on Sony, a competitor?

I believe the relationship is the middle one with Sony designing and building the sensors for Nikon. I do think that Nikon has control over the design, however -- ie., designed by Sony in accordance with direction from Nikon. I'm not positive but that's what I've been led to believe in reading for awhile.

I would be surprised if Nikon would start fabricating its own sensors simply because the capital expenditure in starting a fab facility would have to be high. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see them having an in-house design facility but then attracting the best talent might be difficult and/or expensive.

Sony makes too much off of sensor sales to ever jeopardize the relationship with Nikon. Any move would come from Nikon itself, which I can't see happening unless something occurs to make them question the wisdom of the arrangement. It seems to have worked for both so far. Sony is large enough to design for both itself and for Nikon separately.

 

[AndrewR]

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2087769&enterthread=y

Those two cameras are nothing but groud breaking. Those two cameras, surely, will change digital camera market. No longer Canon is the leading man but they, all of the sudden, became the challenger just like how they were once before.

Given the size of two companies (Canon is 8 times bigger) and how Nikon has had hard time when it came to digital cameras due to the lack of having their own sensor and quality image processing, I didn't think Nikon would be able to push it this far.
Now, not only their image processing is as good as that of Canon, they also have their own sensors. All of them being FF sensors!

What's great about this is that Canon is now forced to come up with really serious cameras.
They can't play the game the way they played. No longer they' won't be able to save users-wanted-it-so bad functions for later and later years. I bet fully funtional Spot-metering system will be finally there on xxD series. I bet Canon will be busy introducing extra features, extra features in which Canon has been saving for later and later years, on their upcoming cameras. Canon doesn't have enough time. They'll have to be crazy just like how Nikon is crazy, otherwise they'll see their users leaving and new users going for Nikon which already has been happening in recent years.

What's even more interesting is that it's not only Canon and Nikon in serious competition: There's Sony. There has alreay been high expectations for Sony's two upcoming mid-range and flagship DSLRs given how Sony is into this market. At this point, nobody really knows what Sony holds beside that the flagship one will be a FF camera. Whatever they have, it had better be a damn good one. Otherwise their plan, a plan that they will beat Nikon with those two, will be just ruined.

The botoom line is that the market will be changed more than ever before. I'm sure we will be able to have far better cameras at cheaper prices. I'm sure we'll see the battle of mid-range FF cameras within a year. Being a Canon 5D user, I thought about making a jump after and after 5D's successor came along. Now, I'm pretty positive that 5D MK2 will be even better than 5D MK3 I pictured of and that it'd be worth to make jump for the next one.
In addition, given how D300 is NOT a successor of D200 but a separte line-up of its own, there's already a rumor that next generaion of D200 be a FF one. A camera like D200 being FF, that's mindblowing.

While the D300 does appear to be an excellent camera (don't assume it's perfect until users have had a chance to find the flaws -- see 1DMkIII for reference), it's not changing the face of the DSLR world. While the D300 does appear to be superior to the 40D, it's also priced at a significant premium over the 40D, much as the D200 is to the 30D. Did the D200 devastate Canon's sales? Hardly. The big dent to Canon didn't come from the high end but from the low end -- Nikon's D40 garnered a lot of sales.

Which comes to my next point that FF is not going to dominate camera sales anytime soon. The low end is high volume, and it's simply cheaper to produce smaller sensors and APS-C specific lenses. Canon's line-up seems pretty well divided to me: APS-C on the low end and advanced amateur (XTi and 40D) then full frame on a higher model (5D) and the pro models (1D).

It's funny though because Nikon has a slightly shifted line-up with the D40 below the XTi (D40x more in line with the XTi), the D80 a little below the 30D, the D300 above the 30D but below the 5D, and then the professional line. Sony has the A100 at approximately the D80 level and possibly the advanced amateur above the 30D but below the D300. The pro model from Sony is rumored to be below the professional level of Canikon so possibly more in line with the 5D.

Who knows? But, it's a damn exciting time!

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: AndrewR

Originally posted by: fuzzybabybunny
I wonder how the sensor thing works. Canon does all the sensor stuff in house, from designing to fabrication. Nikon has Sony sensors, but I don't know how their relationship is:

Is Nikon designing the sensors and just contracting the fabrication out to Sony?
Is Nikon contracting out BOTH sensor design and fabrication out to Sony? Kind of an awkward relationship.
Is Nikon going to attempt to install sensor fabrication facilities of their own, or just keep on relying on Sony, a competitor?

I believe the relationship is the middle one with Sony designing and building the sensors for Nikon. I do think that Nikon has control over the design, however -- ie., designed by Sony in accordance with direction from Nikon. I'm not positive but that's what I've been led to believe in reading for awhile.

I would be surprised if Nikon would start fabricating its own sensors simply because the capital expenditure in starting a fab facility would have to be high. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see them having an in-house design facility but then attracting the best talent might be difficult and/or expensive.

Sony makes too much off of sensor sales to ever jeopardize the relationship with Nikon. Any move would come from Nikon itself, which I can't see happening unless something occurs to make them question the wisdom of the arrangement. It seems to have worked for both so far. Sony is large enough to design for both itself and for Nikon separately.

the sensor in the D3 is made by nikon. which makes me wonder how sony is coming on it's 35 mm sensor. perhaps nikon wanted a lower res sensor (12 MP) for their high speed model (to compete with the 1D) that sony wasn't interested in producing and will use a higher resolution sony sensor for the D3x (which would also end up in a sony high end camera). though if sony is making sensors for nikon to nikon's spec then my 'perhaps' doesn't make any sense.

 

[Deadtrees]

Originally posted by: AndrewR

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2087769&enterthread=y

Those two cameras are nothing but groud breaking. Those two cameras, surely, will change digital camera market. No longer Canon is the leading man but they, all of the sudden, became the challenger just like how they were once before.

Given the size of two companies (Canon is 8 times bigger) and how Nikon has had hard time when it came to digital cameras due to the lack of having their own sensor and quality image processing, I didn't think Nikon would be able to push it this far.
Now, not only their image processing is as good as that of Canon, they also have their own sensors. All of them being FF sensors!

What's great about this is that Canon is now forced to come up with really serious cameras.
They can't play the game the way they played. No longer they' won't be able to save users-wanted-it-so bad functions for later and later years. I bet fully funtional Spot-metering system will be finally there on xxD series. I bet Canon will be busy introducing extra features, extra features in which Canon has been saving for later and later years, on their upcoming cameras. Canon doesn't have enough time. They'll have to be crazy just like how Nikon is crazy, otherwise they'll see their users leaving and new users going for Nikon which already has been happening in recent years.

What's even more interesting is that it's not only Canon and Nikon in serious competition: There's Sony. There has alreay been high expectations for Sony's two upcoming mid-range and flagship DSLRs given how Sony is into this market. At this point, nobody really knows what Sony holds beside that the flagship one will be a FF camera. Whatever they have, it had better be a damn good one. Otherwise their plan, a plan that they will beat Nikon with those two, will be just ruined.

The botoom line is that the market will be changed more than ever before. I'm sure we will be able to have far better cameras at cheaper prices. I'm sure we'll see the battle of mid-range FF cameras within a year. Being a Canon 5D user, I thought about making a jump after and after 5D's successor came along. Now, I'm pretty positive that 5D MK2 will be even better than 5D MK3 I pictured of and that it'd be worth to make jump for the next one.
In addition, given how D300 is NOT a successor of D200 but a separte line-up of its own, there's already a rumor that next generaion of D200 be a FF one. A camera like D200 being FF, that's mindblowing.

While the D300 does appear to be an excellent camera (don't assume it's perfect until users have had a chance to find the flaws -- see 1DMkIII for reference), it's not changing the face of the DSLR world. While the D300 does appear to be superior to the 40D, it's also priced at a significant premium over the 40D, much as the D200 is to the 30D. Did the D200 devastate Canon's sales? Hardly. The big dent to Canon didn't come from the high end but from the low end -- Nikon's D40 garnered a lot of sales.

Which comes to my next point that FF is not going to dominate camera sales anytime soon. The low end is high volume, and it's simply cheaper to produce smaller sensors and APS-C specific lenses. Canon's line-up seems pretty well divided to me: APS-C on the low end and advanced amateur (XTi and 40D) then full frame on a higher model (5D) and the pro models (1D).

It's funny though because Nikon has a slightly shifted line-up with the D40 below the XTi (D40x more in line with the XTi), the D80 a little below the 30D, the D300 above the 30D but below the 5D, and then the professional line. Sony has the A100 at approximately the D80 level and possibly the advanced amateur above the 30D but below the D300. The pro model from Sony is rumored to be below the professional level of Canikon so possibly more in line with the 5D.

Who knows? But, it's a damn exciting time!

"D200 sold a lot more than our expectation." That's why Nikon rep. said and D200, indeed, hurt sales of 30D.

 

[randomlinh]

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
"D200 sold a lot more than our expectation." That's why Nikon rep. said and D200, indeed, hurt sales of 30D.

Err.. you're listening to the sales pitch from a nikon rep? of course they're going to favor themselves.

Not to say the D200 isn't a bad camera, but it seemed to be in it's own class, a step up over the 30D. I don't think it hurt canon all that much.

And if the D300 isn't a successor to the D200, then nikon is on crack with their naming schemes. I think this will just up the bar for the "D90" to really give the 40D a run for it's money.

With that said, glad to see it. I just hope we don't see the full reviews with them saying "nikon's cmos sensors aren't up to par."

 

[Deadtrees]

Originally posted by: randomlinh

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
"D200 sold a lot more than our expectation." That's why Nikon rep. said and D200, indeed, hurt sales of 30D.

Err.. you're listening to the sales pitch from a nikon rep? of course they're going to favor themselves.

Not to say the D200 isn't a bad camera, but it seemed to be in it's own class, a step up over the 30D. I don't think it hurt canon all that much.

And if the D300 isn't a successor to the D200, then nikon is on crack with their naming schemes. I think this will just up the bar for the "D90" to really give the 40D a run for it's money.

With that said, glad to see it. I just hope we don't see the full reviews with them saying "nikon's cmos sensors aren't up to par."

He said that when asked about Nikon's outstanding sales performance in recent years(Along with D200, he also mentioned D40 as well.) Do I think or know if he's really telling the truth? Yes as I've seen quartly sales charts. D30 sold poorly. If you compare 30D sales compared to 20D, it's even worse. However, I'm not saying 30D was a failure. As Dslr market has expanded up by 27%, D30 sold well.

 

[teatime0315]

As ElFenix said the D3's sensor is made by Nikon. The D300's is Sony's sensor.

 

[OdiN]

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Are you a Nikon fanboy?

You're an Olympus fanboy....

 

[randomlinh]

Originally posted by: Deadtrees

Originally posted by: randomlinh

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
"D200 sold a lot more than our expectation." That's why Nikon rep. said and D200, indeed, hurt sales of 30D.

Err.. you're listening to the sales pitch from a nikon rep? of course they're going to favor themselves.

Not to say the D200 isn't a bad camera, but it seemed to be in it's own class, a step up over the 30D. I don't think it hurt canon all that much.

And if the D300 isn't a successor to the D200, then nikon is on crack with their naming schemes. I think this will just up the bar for the "D90" to really give the 40D a run for it's money.

With that said, glad to see it. I just hope we don't see the full reviews with them saying "nikon's cmos sensors aren't up to par."

He said that when asked about Nikon's outstanding sales performance in recent years(Along with D200, he also mentioned D40 as well.) Do I think or know if he's really telling the truth? Yes as I've seen quartly sales charts. D30 sold poorly. If you compare 30D sales compared to 20D, it's even worse. However, I'm not saying 30D was a failure. As Dslr market has expanded up by 27%, D30 sold well.

Well, the main problem w/ the 30D (not D30, I noticed you kept interchanging the two ) is that it was more like a 20Dx. It was no true upgrade to the 20D IMO. It was a lame upgrade, heh. In that regard, I would think canon hurt itself.

Regardless, nikon is able to keep things interesting for canon. They have a an uphill battle, but as someone already noted, the D40/x market is where it's at. To us, it's a nasty cripple camera, but to nikon's target market for the D40... that audience doesn't quite care.

woot competition.

 

[tfinch2]

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Are you a Nikon fanboy?

You're an Olympus fanboy....

Yeah but I didn't start three threads about Nikon in the same day.

 

[Aharami]

Originally posted by: tfinch2

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Are you a Nikon fanboy?

You're an Olympus fanboy....

Yeah but I didn't start three threads about Nikon in the same day.

Why does that bother you? IMO he has some valid points.

 

[Deadtrees]

Originally posted by: tfinch2

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Are you a Nikon fanboy?

You're an Olympus fanboy....

Yeah but I didn't start three threads about Nikon in the same day.

Funny how you tagged as a Nikon fanboy when I'm a Canon 5D user and that I once was tagged as Canon fanboy once before. As I said, I don't care whether it's Canon, Nikon, or whatever. If a company announces a ground breaking camera, I'll go for it.

Anyway, those three threads were about : 1. rumors about upcoming cameras from Nikon that sounds insane to be true 2. Confirming the rumors even before Dpreview or any sites 3. predicted changed in the market as those new Nikon cameras were such a market-changing cameras.

 

[OdiN]

Originally posted by: Deadtrees

Originally posted by: tfinch2

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Are you a Nikon fanboy?

You're an Olympus fanboy....

Yeah but I didn't start three threads about Nikon in the same day.

Funny how you tagged as a Nikon fanboy when I'm a Canon 5D user and that I once was tagged as Canon fanboy once before. As I said, I don't care whether it's Canon, Nikon, or whatever. If a company announces a ground breaking camera, I'll go for it.

Anyway, those three threads were about : 1. rumors about upcoming cameras from Nikon that sounds insane to be true 2. Confirming the rumors even before Dpreview or any sites 3. predicted changed in the market as those new Nikon cameras were such a market-changing cameras.

Others can't just "go for it".

I have about $5000 of glass in Canon.

I also don't see the Nikons as all that "market-changing" as you say. Not that they look bad, but there isn't anything in them that is market-changing.

 

[foghorn67]

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
He said that when asked about Nikon's outstanding sales performance in recent years(Along with D200, he also mentioned D40 as well.) Do I think or know if he's really telling the truth? Yes as I've seen quartly sales charts. D30 sold poorly. If you compare 30D sales compared to 20D, it's even worse. However, I'm not saying 30D was a failure. As Dslr market has expanded up by 27%, D30 sold well.

30D's have had no problems flying off the shelves. The 3 higher end prosumer EF-S lenses are still selling well.

I had no idea Nikon had their fabrication facility.
And the whole Canon is 8 times bigger, of course. What does that have to do with anything?

 

[randomlinh]

Originally posted by: foghorn67

Originally posted by: Deadtrees
He said that when asked about Nikon's outstanding sales performance in recent years(Along with D200, he also mentioned D40 as well.) Do I think or know if he's really telling the truth? Yes as I've seen quartly sales charts. D30 sold poorly. If you compare 30D sales compared to 20D, it's even worse. However, I'm not saying 30D was a failure. As Dslr market has expanded up by 27%, D30 sold well.

30D's have had no problems flying off the shelves. The 3 higher end prosumer EF-S lenses are still selling well.

I had no idea Nikon had their fabrication facility.
And the whole Canon is 8 times bigger, of course. What does that have to do with anything?

bigger company presumably can put more resources behind a technology.

Altho, canon does have it's printers, scanners, copiers, office workhorses, video cameras...

It'd be interesting to compare just the two company's dSLR/lens efforts.

 

[foghorn67]

Originally posted by: randomlinh
bigger company presumably can put more resources behind a technology.

Altho, canon does have it's printers, scanners, copiers, office workhorses, video cameras...

It'd be interesting to compare just the two company's dSLR/lens efforts.

they did, hence their own sensor fab.

 

[essasin]

Nikon has the edge with this release if it olds true to the paper specs in everything except at the very top with the 1ds mark III. The 3D is certainly better on paper than the 1d Mark III and the D300 is better on paper than the 40d. Nikon has won this battle but they have not won the war. I'd like to see Nikon keep pushing the envelope and keep Canon off its cushion. I for one will still keep shooting my 1d classic and Ls unless Nikon does something ground breaking like kicking Canon on its behind in the next generations.

 

[Deadtrees]

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: Deadtrees

Originally posted by: tfinch2

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Are you a Nikon fanboy?

You're an Olympus fanboy....

Yeah but I didn't start three threads about Nikon in the same day.

Funny how you tagged as a Nikon fanboy when I'm a Canon 5D user and that I once was tagged as Canon fanboy once before. As I said, I don't care whether it's Canon, Nikon, or whatever. If a company announces a ground breaking camera, I'll go for it.

Anyway, those three threads were about : 1. rumors about upcoming cameras from Nikon that sounds insane to be true 2. Confirming the rumors even before Dpreview or any sites 3. predicted changed in the market as those new Nikon cameras were such a market-changing cameras.

Others can't just "go for it".

I have about $5000 of glass in Canon.

I also don't see the Nikons as all that "market-changing" as you say. Not that they look bad, but there isn't anything in them that is market-changing.

What I meant there by saying "go for it" meant that I'll "like it no matter what brand it is."
I should've put it the that way.

 

[randomlinh]

Originally posted by: foghorn67

Originally posted by: randomlinh
bigger company presumably can put more resources behind a technology.

Altho, canon does have it's printers, scanners, copiers, office workhorses, video cameras...

It'd be interesting to compare just the two company's dSLR/lens efforts.

they did, hence their own sensor fab.

what exactly was your comment towards? you mean they did compare the two? I meant compare resources used specifically for dslr research/development/advertising/etc/etc, not their sensors. I was curious as to if canon really devotes more to it, or is it just their market share that gives that illusion.