News Flash: Car Dealers are Republicans (It's Called a Control Group, People)
by Nate Silver @ 6:50 PM
A meme that is currently picking up traction in the conservative blogosphere is that the list of dealerships to be shuttered as a result of Chrysler's bankruptcy contains a disproportionate number donors to Republican candidates. There have been furious efforts to prove this contention by looking up campaign contributor lists at the Huffington Post, Open Secrets, and other places.
There is just one problem with this theory. Nobody has bothered to look up data for the control group: the list of dealerships which aren't being closed. It turns out that all car dealers are, in fact, overwhelmingly more likely to donate to Republicans than to Democrats -- not just those who are having their doors closed.
Here, for instance, is what
Huffington Post's Fundrace site turns up for those who list their occupation as "auto dealer":
Occupation: auto dealer
763 results found, showing 1 - 100
$850,612 was given by people who identified their occupation as "auto dealer".
$761,742 from 546 people to Republicans
$88,870 from 72 people to Democrats
Republican donations outstrip Democratic ones by about 8.6:1. Next, let's try "
car dealer":
Occupation: car dealer
200 results found, showing 1 - 100
$215,503 was given by people who identified their occupation as "car dealer".
$171,328 from 141 people to Republicans
$44,175 from 42 people to Democrats
For some reason, those persons who describe themselves as "car dealers" are just slightly more likely to donate to Democrats than those who call themselves "auto dealers". Nevertheless, the list of contributions tilts Republican by better than a 3:1 margin.
Next up, "
automobile dealer":
Occupation: automobile dealer
192 results found, showing 1 - 100
$299,842 was given by people who identified their occupation as "automobile dealer".
$272,507 from 138 people to Republicans
$27,335 from 20 people to Democrats
Roughly a 10:1 advantage for Republicans. Finally, we'll look at the slightly more obscure formation of "
automotive dealer":
Occupation: automotive dealer
$17,000 was given by people who identified their occupation as "automotive dealer".
$15,900 from 11 people to Republicans
$1,100 from 2 people to Democrats