Originally posted by: Craig234
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Michael
So layoffs will occur. So what? I finished university in 1987 and the market crashed 1 month after I started work. Since then there have been several downturns and lay-offs have been a part of my entire working life.
I'm also a financial professional and have raised over $1B (and counting) on the public markets for the companies I work for. I deal with Wall Street bankers every week.
If a few more of the large institutions go under it will be quite bad. However, I am convinced that if it is not very bad, then nothing will get fixed.
The truth of the matter is that the banks used borrowed money to make big bets. They've been feeding off the hedge funds for years and now the hedge funds are feeding off on them. The took the risks and their management, boards and investors did not stop them. Now they should take the bad along with the good.
I think it will be better and cleaner to have a hard crash. The last one we had (The Great Depression) had terrible consequences (WW II for example) but eventually the benefits that came out of it made the country better.
Michael
Wow, you raised $1BN in the markets and deal with bankers every day. When I worked for a credit card issuer I put in place 5 ABCP conduits for $6BN of funding in 4 months. Last year I raised over $3BN in conduit funding, in facilities that raised over $30BN total. Want to see what the securitization market has done this year?
Check out some of the more on-the-run companies and how "successful" they are at at just maintaining funding at reasonable rates these days. I already know of several companies who have laid off thousands because they can't even maintain their funding in the securitization markets. The crunch is hitting hard and fast.
87 was a fart in the wind compared to what's happening now. That was over in months, this could spiral into a decade long severe recession, or depression.
But hey, you've been "through it". The guys I work with who were there during 87 say it wasn't shit compared to this.
That was a lot of unzipping and attempting to prove you're bigger, but not much at all about his point:
However, I am convinced that if it is not very bad, then nothing will get fixed.
I think that's one of the most important points going. "The system" for 30 years has prevented the public from doing a thing about the gross inequities that concentreated power and wealth have allowed, as the very top has grabbed more and more of the pie, and a crash is one of the few times the door opens for reform and improvement.
It's natural when you work for an industry to have a pretty sympathetic view to it and prefer solutions less harmful for you and friends.
For Michael, in the industry, to call for such reform that way says something IMO.
The protections that were supposed to be in place for the public interest to prevent this sot of crash were pretty clearly compromised to let people get more profit.
So, the fix is just to hand them hundreds of billions in underpriced loans?
What drove reform in the 30's was a combination of a growing left wing, including socialists, creating pressure from the left, with a large segment of business wanting the system 'fixed' to prevent the abuses from hurting the economy. FDR was not elected as some big liberal reformed, but a bank-friendly moderate.
We need some liberal pressures now to fix the problems. You can see how they'd like it to go from Paulson's original plan: huge tax money available without strings or oversight.