Yeah, mark the Cable Guy's words, he knows all and has considered all variables through his vast economics and finance knowledge.
Yeah, mark the Cable Guy's words, he knows all and has considered all variables through his vast economics and finance knowledge.
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
LOL, Everyday
Price of commercial real estate crashing
Prices of commodities crashing
Price of rents crashing
Price of homes crashing
Price of your stocks crashing
Prices of businesses crashing , who continue to deleveage
And you're long?!?! Okay great! I have a new customer, Jack Daniels is at the back of the store sir ....Just step straight though the wine aisles.
1. you're saying the market hasn't already priced that in?
2. I never said my timing was perfect.
Vic
Elite Member
- Jun 12, 2001
- 50,422
- 14,337
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"When the shoeshine boy is telling you what to buy, it's time to sell!" -- Henry Ford c. 1930s
edit: let's not forget another of my fav depression-era quotes,
"If you owe the bank $100 dollars, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem." - J. Paul Getty (who also later referred to the 1930s as "the bargain days").
edit: let's not forget another of my fav depression-era quotes,
"If you owe the bank $100 dollars, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem." - J. Paul Getty (who also later referred to the 1930s as "the bargain days").
It's very true. I've read a lot in the last two weeks about the 1980 gold bubble. People were reacting then just as they are reacting now. Everybody was screaming "gold, gold, gold!" then that was mixed in with Japan taking over everything and how the end of the US was near.
I never bought into Doomsday trash.
Just like how the markets priced in the subprime problem being contained in 2007? Remember this...
Date: 5/17/07
"The subprime mess is grave but largely contained, said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Thursday, in a speech before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago."
http://www.forbes.com/2007/05/..._er_0516markets02.html
The market then headed for a new all time high!
Date: 7/17/07 DOW hits 14,000
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/1...14k_whattodo/index.htm
Talk about market pricing in things... LOL! Don't make yourself look like a fool Legend Killer.
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
LK got "in" at 14K...don't count your chips till you leave the table is his motto, while, at the same time, emotionally invested, being a Obama supplicant.
Fuck that. Make money now. Read the trends. The undeniable empirical truths in the OP and endorsed with Dullards post. LK et.al. provide none other than proverbs and hope and other mystical shit- Read the Bible if that's your thing or the Holy Qu'ran and commit suicide, which you will.
Good luck and good night!
Fuck that. Make money now. Read the trends. The undeniable empirical truths in the OP and endorsed with Dullards post. LK et.al. provide none other than proverbs and hope and other mystical shit- Read the Bible if that's your thing or the Holy Qu'ran and commit suicide, which you will.
Good luck and good night!
LOL, most people didn't even know what was happening in 07. With the MBA/NAR parroting good times people were ignoring them in 07/07. I think that the bad market has hit people with a wet trout at this point.
If you look at Ted, A1/P1, A2/P2, and other spreads, you'll see that things are unthawing, albeit slowly. I think the market was oversold and now is a pretty good deal, long term.
If you're up for a challenge, you pick your fund and I'll pick mine and we buy/hold. I'll short 100K of DGZ and long 100K of SPDR.
You take your own position of 200K, then we'll see where we end up in 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months.
No, I didn't get in at 14K. I started buying smaller positions in early 2008 but was largely out. I did get in in Sept/Oct 08. Sure, I've taken a hit, but overall, I think that long-term, we are OK.
"listen to the trends"? WTF is that? I'd love to know what trends you see.
I'm hardly an "obama supplicant".
I shot the hell out of Dullard's post. All you provide is nihilistic short-term gloom and doom, it's all you Repuglicans preach these days and America is tired of it. Take your wrist-slitting bullshit and go home. I guarantee that not only will I be far wealtheir than you in the long run but I'll also live far longer.
Gloom and Doom prognosticators like you aren't new. Shit, Warren Buffet's dad and uncle were both the same. Long gold! Democrats will kill everything! Buy Farms! Buy flour and sugar! DOOM DOOM DOOM!
His dad didn't die pennyless, but he wasn't the world's richest man either.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
Is this because you have "considered all variables through his vast economics and finance knowledge."?
11/23/2009, you said "Gold *WILL* drop. I am sure we'll see 600 before we see 1000 again." Gold was around $800 then. It recently hit $1000.
12/2/2008 you said "Go ahead and buy gold, it's still down 20% from the peak and will likely go further." Gold was under $800 that day. Like I said, it recently hit $1000.
In another thread you said you don't time the market. Understatement by a mile, eh? You got in heavy when the DOW was 11k in September, IIRC. How's that going for you? Timing it is one thing; being obviously to where it's going (it's ok, you're in good company, most of us don't have a clue) based on much worse market conditions than you thought is not bad timing, it's simply the wrong move; wrong play.
Your problem is that you think everybody else is an economic moron and by virtue of not having an MBA like you and being CFA chartered like you (and this guy, by the way) has no idea what they're talking about. And yet at the same time you readily admit plenty of your compatriots are morons who screwed this all up.
You said you saw this coming years ago and a thread I found from a couple of years ago backs that up; you did describe the problem and how it was going to play out pretty well. And yet, despite this, you are working many days/week, up to 14 hour days and you didn't even get a bonus last year. Why didn't you take insurance out on all those bad mortgages? Having seen this coming so clearly and obviously you should be worth millions now and cruising around in Bermuda. You are one of many thousands of pawns. Most of us realize that, but for some reason you don't, despite having no proof whatsoever that you aren't.
LOL, it barely touched 1000 and it has come down significantly from there.
Timing is short-term. At 11k, it was a decent deal. I bought heavily again in early January and now. I'm putting in the Fed max for 401k, a 50% match through my employer, plus a an extra 10% of compensation profit sharing from the employer.
I did get a bonus last year, just not a huge one. As far as me still working. It ain't easy paying off 160k in student loans, especially when one's wife (who contributed 50% of that) has cancer and is out of work for a half a year and part-time for another half. I didn't have the capital to take advantage of the situation to the fullest, mainly because it went to paying tens of thousands in medical bills.
I love the personal vendetta though, it's quite stalker-ish.
On the gloom and doom side, I'd expect the people to be sitting pretty and actually making tons of money. Why haven't you retired by now? What about Zebo? Obviously you guys have gained 50%+ in the last 1.5 years, right? After all, you've shorted the market AND made a ton of money longing gold, right?
Shit, your returns should be near what? 90% for the last 2 years?
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 25,987
- 4,596
- 126
Ok, I exaggerated a bit for effect. But, my point is still valid. What did that investment bring? -100k. Fling around any personal insults you want, that investment still overall was a -$100k investment. Sure, it is currently worth $400k, or $420k, but current value is almost meaningless to the investor. What mattered is what was the return: -$100k (plus whatever little bit was paid off before going into foreclosure).
Um, you need to learn the definition of "pennies on the dollar". If it is worth less than par, it is worth pennies on the dollar.
The market is demanding a premium for interest BECAUSE you won't realize 100% of the value of the bond. Are you in denial of the true extent of the problem?
Ok, now you are arguing that you get fucked since it was or will be sold at pennies on the dollar. So which are you arguing? Will you get 100% or will you get 10%? Make up your mind. In reality, it is probably closer to 100%, but we can settle on your 60% number above - still at pennies on the dollar.
I highlighted the TRUE problem (other than the fact that those bonds aren't ever going to return 100%). M2M is the messenger. Stop attacking the messenger. Banks are in serious trouble because the mortgages they hold (or bonds representing those mortages) are often the worst of the worst. They kept the ones that they couldn't sell off to investors because they were that bad. Thus, the banks' belongings will do far worse than the average 9% foreclosure rate. M2M is the messenger that says, "Hey, things are seriously bad." That is completely true, things are seriously bad. The true problem (bolded in your quote), is that rules, laws, and therefore banks overreact to that problem. Forced additional capital for short-term swings is the problem. The M2M messenger isn't the problem.
I'll agree with you there.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
Sorry, I don't know sh*t. Just like you, but unlike you I am willing to admit it. That's why I haven't made off like a bandit.
An an addendum, I have no vendetta against you. I don't care enough; I hold no grudges on Anandtech, though I'll readily admit Dave irritated the hell out of me. You are just one of many, many, posters. Don't confuse a vendetta with simply remembering how you are in your posts and your history of statements.
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