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Democrat Prepares for Another Possible Stimulus Package
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Mardeth
Platinum Member
Intresting thing I learned a while back in economics 101.
Floating dollar + free movement of capital = gov spending doesnt effect the economy's size, only structure. This is because (and presuming) the gov loans the money that it spends, increasing the intrest rates which in turn increase the value of the dollar. You buying more and sell less (internationally). At worst it offsets increased spending by 100%.
Now I dont know if this oversimplified or something but if someone knows more Id like to hear your opinion.
Floating dollar + free movement of capital = gov spending doesnt effect the economy's size, only structure. This is because (and presuming) the gov loans the money that it spends, increasing the intrest rates which in turn increase the value of the dollar. You buying more and sell less (internationally). At worst it offsets increased spending by 100%.
Now I dont know if this oversimplified or something but if someone knows more Id like to hear your opinion.
This link has a commentary that doesn't say much really new, but nicely says something I think is helpful, a summary of three reasons why we're actually in a worse position for recovery than we were in the great depression (there are arguably more). That doesn't mean this will be worse in terms of where it leaves people - but it has relevance to the recovery everyone seems to think will mirror the earlier ones.
It cites the fact that only 2% of people owned stock last time, that the derivatives are massive and new, and our switch from largest lender to debtor.
It's vaguely optimistic though about being able to turn things around if the right steps are taken.
One question for the righties to think about, if as they like to say what really got us out of the great depression was WWII spending, think about that that means - the government spending vast sums did it, and those funds were for waste - military costs that did not create 'real value', bombs, bullets, paying men to go overseas - imagine the same spending on constructive things like schools and infrastructure.
It cites the fact that only 2% of people owned stock last time, that the derivatives are massive and new, and our switch from largest lender to debtor.
It's vaguely optimistic though about being able to turn things around if the right steps are taken.
One question for the righties to think about, if as they like to say what really got us out of the great depression was WWII spending, think about that that means - the government spending vast sums did it, and those funds were for waste - military costs that did not create 'real value', bombs, bullets, paying men to go overseas - imagine the same spending on constructive things like schools and infrastructure.
trenchfoot
Lifer
Reminder: The repubs had at least six solid years of total control of our government and two years of highly skilled obstrctionism to steer our nation into the deep financial hole we're presently in. Which, to me, now represents credentials that aren't worth the toilet paper they're printed on.
Now here we have them explaining to us how, with their previous eight years of expertly guiding our Nation into financial ruin, they know better what to do to get us out the freak'in mess they themselves put us in.
That speaks a whole lot about how much creditability, how much "iron" (to borrow from Josey Wales) there is in their words.
Yet here we are listening to the same "advice" and prodding that got us to where we are now, as if speaking those same words from a minority status somehow makes those words of wisdom more meaningful and valid.
The only reason I can see why the these tried-and-proven-oh-so-wrong ideological pearls of wisdom keep popping up is that the repubs have nothing else to beat down and reign in the corrective measures that they have alienated themselves from out of pure stubborness and panic-driven denial.
Admit failure and move on. Quit throwing out anchors tied to the lifeboat we're in and start pitching in at the oars.
We gave Bush 8 years and all the rope he needed to hang himself with and he did a marvelous job of it with Cheney himself pulling the trip handle and all. So, wouldn't it seem so appealing to the repubs to afford Obama the same opportunity?
50+ plus days in office of an adminstration that got from Bush a White House with broken plumbing, unhinged and missing doors, termites everywhere, excrement smeared walls, a severely depreciated property that's also severely over-mortgaged, foreign creditors running through the halls measuring for draperies, slick corporate salesmen at the front door still dressed in Halloween costumes and still begging for the never-ending treats that the previous administration spoiled them with.....and outside the gates are Obama's detractors, who not only want him to fail but are actively promoting and effecting ways for him to fail and are promoting an agenda that had already run itself into the ground and demolished itself.
How is it that the repubs think that they can wantonly wreck themselves and hold everybody else back with them to share in their misery and still demand to be at the wheel after they slap their bus back together with spiteful spit and well-chewed-out flavorless gum ?
Obama's detractors so badly want back the control they deservedly lost, so they could continue to...what?, make things even worse than they already have? To prove that they can make the rich even richer still, while simultaneously turning the middle class into a slave class even faster than before?
In lieu of anything else that they seemingly can't come up with except tthe same old tired ideology-that-self-destructed, I opt to give Obama a fair chance at fixing what his detractors directly caused and not buy into their plan at destroying the one single shining ray of hope that we have at the moment.
Now here we have them explaining to us how, with their previous eight years of expertly guiding our Nation into financial ruin, they know better what to do to get us out the freak'in mess they themselves put us in.
That speaks a whole lot about how much creditability, how much "iron" (to borrow from Josey Wales) there is in their words.
Yet here we are listening to the same "advice" and prodding that got us to where we are now, as if speaking those same words from a minority status somehow makes those words of wisdom more meaningful and valid.
The only reason I can see why the these tried-and-proven-oh-so-wrong ideological pearls of wisdom keep popping up is that the repubs have nothing else to beat down and reign in the corrective measures that they have alienated themselves from out of pure stubborness and panic-driven denial.
Admit failure and move on. Quit throwing out anchors tied to the lifeboat we're in and start pitching in at the oars.
We gave Bush 8 years and all the rope he needed to hang himself with and he did a marvelous job of it with Cheney himself pulling the trip handle and all. So, wouldn't it seem so appealing to the repubs to afford Obama the same opportunity?
50+ plus days in office of an adminstration that got from Bush a White House with broken plumbing, unhinged and missing doors, termites everywhere, excrement smeared walls, a severely depreciated property that's also severely over-mortgaged, foreign creditors running through the halls measuring for draperies, slick corporate salesmen at the front door still dressed in Halloween costumes and still begging for the never-ending treats that the previous administration spoiled them with.....and outside the gates are Obama's detractors, who not only want him to fail but are actively promoting and effecting ways for him to fail and are promoting an agenda that had already run itself into the ground and demolished itself.
How is it that the repubs think that they can wantonly wreck themselves and hold everybody else back with them to share in their misery and still demand to be at the wheel after they slap their bus back together with spiteful spit and well-chewed-out flavorless gum ?
Obama's detractors so badly want back the control they deservedly lost, so they could continue to...what?, make things even worse than they already have? To prove that they can make the rich even richer still, while simultaneously turning the middle class into a slave class even faster than before?
In lieu of anything else that they seemingly can't come up with except tthe same old tired ideology-that-self-destructed, I opt to give Obama a fair chance at fixing what his detractors directly caused and not buy into their plan at destroying the one single shining ray of hope that we have at the moment.
Fern
Elite Member
Although I haven't commented on the depression/WWII before (IIRC), I wanted to use this opportunity to point out back that back then we had a lot of excess capacity in our manufacturering sector. War spending put those plants, and their employees, back in business. I don't the situation is comparable today.
"Imagaine the constructive things like schools and infrastructure"? Yeah, I did, and was sorely disappointed to see it get only "token' attention in the stimulous bill.
Fern
I guess we have different definitions of 'token'. According to the wiki breakdown of the spending authorized, education gets over $90 billion (not counting the $15 billion in tax credits for higher education) and infrastructure gets about $80 billion. That doesn't even count things like upgrading the energy grid, which I would consider infrastructure. (this would add an additional $11 billion)
So if you count just what I mentioned there (and realistically you could count much more as infrastructure, such as the upgrading of the nations waterways, etc), you have about $180 billion out of total spending of $357 billion, or more than 50% of all the spending going to just those two areas. That's 'token' to you?
trenchfoot
Lifer
Sticks and stones blah blah blah.😀
I get back one denial with no supporting documentation and a comment that doesn't address what I posted. Well, that seems typical of the lame way the repubs have been reacting to the earnest effort the Obama administration is mounting to get us all back on the road to prosperity.
And besides, I'm on vacation now, spending my days on the sunny and warm but somewhat windy beaches of Waikiki, Ala Moana and Diamond Head and taking a lot of photo's of the sick surfing action and the knock-out gorgeous beach bunnies out on the North Shore. So, flame on fella's, I'm in cruise mode and feeling no pain.😉:sun:
I gotta say that controlling every elected chamber of government for 4 years straight, and all of them but one for six years is pretty damn solid control of government. They didn't have 'total control', but they had the ability to aggressively push their agenda, and they did.
Honestly, I feel the Republicans are far better at getting the legislation they want rammed through than the Democrats. Whatever you want to say about the Bush years, I think it is very difficult to argue that the Republicans didn't get their agenda passed, which really in the end was the guy's point.
Solid control is a good majority. Would you consider a near 50/50 split "solid" control? I dont at all because they have little power to get their agenda through. They may own the committee's but they would have to compromise big time to get a % of the other 50 to pass a measure. The repubublicans had a strong majority for two of the the 8 years under Bush. And Bush's biggest centerpiece SS reform fell flat on its face.
JD50
Lifer
Just look at the last few years where the Dems had a small majority, I can't count how many times I heard the excuses about them not having enough control to get anything done. Now they're claiming that when Republicans had a slim majority that they had "pretty damn solid" control. It's laughable.
Mundell-Fleming? It's interesting but not overly descriptive and doesn't appear to apply to current situations where government spending is increasing while interest rates are basically 0%. The dollar has been increasing in value primarily because every other major economic power is behaving in our manner and people are fleeing to the dollar, or they need dollars to pay their debts. M-F doesn't really describe the effects of have the reserve currency. Being economics, it also makes a lot of assumptions about perfect information and rationality.
The federal gov't and the Fed are trying to get as much money into the economy as possible by whatever means possible because they know that deflation in an economy completely reliant on consumer spending and debt would be absolutely devastating. I think they are throwing every last tool they have at the problem. Deflation, when you're a net creditor and by extension net exporter, can really hurt, but eventually growth will resume when that capacity is put to use.
The rest of the bickering in this thread is superfluous. The only real strength the US has to the world is the resilience of the American consumer. This is why the Chinese will still buy our debt. They need that money in our hands to buy their stuff. It's the American way. In my opinion, this is why the free market can't sort this one out. There's nothing left to sort except to decide how the creditors get paid with money and jobs people don't have. I think the only thing left to do is to sit down and think about how deflation in an environment dominated by massive private and public debt can quickly spiral out of control.
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