Democracy in Saudi Arabia?

[techs]

With all the talk of bringing Democracy to Middle East its time to ask what would happen if Saudi Arabia became a Democracy?
Well, at least 90 a barrel gas, possiblly 140 a barrel or higher.
The first thing a Democratic government in Saudi Arabia will do is act to get the most money for their major product, oil. It doesn't take a degree in Economics to realize a ten percent reduction in Saudi oil production ALONE (and they certainly could get opec to reduce what they pump, somewhat) would result in a 20-50 percent increase in the price of oil. The Saudis could take 1 million barrels off the market by themselves, tomorrow. And the price of oil would be up to 90 dollars within a day. Which means they would make MORE money by selling less. Pure capitalism at work.
It is in the best interest of the people of Saudi Arabia to get the best price for their oil, and the maximum yearly revenues for their oil. And cutting production would do that.
Not to mention a Saudi Arabia, awash in oil money, and leaning heavily towards radical Islamic policies would have huge power in the Middle East and the world.
So lets stop this nonsense how we want Demcoracy in the Middle East. We only want it in countries we don't control.

 

[Lemon law]

Right now the Saudies stand at a crossroad---and with a very unstable monarchy created jointly by the British and the USA----but the future choice---to keep a pro USA and pro Western stance--with a policy of keeping oil prices stable and cheap---or sell out their old alliances---and start courting India and China as customers---at the expense of offending the most powerful military in the world---that has been at their beck and call--that has sold them what weapons they have---and who could easily intervene militarily and wipe them out.

And the other point is that Saudie Arabia is almost the only place where Wahbism has much traction. Their population hates Israel and the US pro-Israelie bias. And the decision of the royal family to allow US troops to be based in Saudie Arabia during gulf war one is what caused the split between Ossama Bin Laden and the Saudie royal rulers---which lead to the exile of Bin Laden. Nor was it random chance that led to most of the 911 hijackers to be Saudie nationals---nor is it rocket science to state Ossama Bin Laden would dearly love to see the Saudie Royal family replaced by Islamic activists.

With the current Iraqi occupation weakening the west monitarily, militarily, and culterally, I think AL-Quida can only see this playing into their hands.---as they patiently wait for Iraq to fly apart and breed anarchy, unstability, and warfare throught the mid-east----and with the speed of the fall of the Iranian Shah---we could all wake up one morning to find we live in vastly different world. And playing with a deck of cards less stacked in the USA's favor.----and the key may well be Saudie Arabia---under new leadership---and as the birthplace of Islam---as the prime new hostile force.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: techs
With all the talk of bringing Democracy to Middle East its time to ask what would happen if Saudi Arabia became a Democracy?
Well, at least 90 a barrel gas, possiblly 140 a barrel or higher.
The first thing a Democratic government in Saudi Arabia will do is act to get the most money for their major product, oil. It doesn't take a degree in Economics to realize a ten percent reduction in Saudi oil production ALONE (and they certainly could get opec to reduce what they pump, somewhat) would result in a 20-50 percent increase in the price of oil. The Saudis could take 1 million barrels off the market by themselves, tomorrow. And the price of oil would be up to 90 dollars within a day. Which means they would make MORE money by selling less. Pure capitalism at work.
It is in the best interest of the people of Saudi Arabia to get the best price for their oil, and the maximum yearly revenues for their oil. And cutting production would do that.
Not to mention a Saudi Arabia, awash in oil money, and leaning heavily towards radical Islamic policies would have huge power in the Middle East and the world.
So lets stop this nonsense how we want Demcoracy in the Middle East. We only want it in countries we don't control.

Hey quit exposing the "Drive for $5"

 

[piasabird]

A sustained high enough oil price will just urge the rest of the world to do more oil exploration and to find other alternatives to oil for fuel. It could have a very bad effect in the long run for Saudia Arabia.

 

[StormRider]

Are you too young to remember the Arab oil embargo of the 70's when gas prices in the U.S. went sky high? Saudia Arabia already tried that and the world economy went into a deep recession. When the world's economy goes bad, it goes bad in Saudia Arabia too. I heard an interview on NPR with a Saudia official and they said they don't want to repeat that mistake again.

They want to price their oil so that they can maximize their profits -- basic economic priniciples. But you don't want to price it so high so the economies of natiions that buy your oil collapse or plunges into a deep recession because they means they can't buy your oil anymore -- that would be like shooting yourself in the foot.

 

[Lemon law]

To StormRider,

Who wrote---Are you too young to remember the Arab oil embargo of the 70's when gas prices in the U.S. went sky high? Saudia Arabia already tried that and the world economy went into a deep recession. When the world's economy goes bad, it goes bad in Saudia Arabia too. I heard an interview on NPR with a Saudia official and they said they don't want to repeat that mistake again.

Have you ever heard that old saying that history repeats itself--or that old saying that we never learn from history?---but your statement is still somewhat valid--the Saudies did it in the 70's and learned something---but who says an idealistic and fundementalist regime that may in future take over in Saudie Arabia will pay any heed to that lesson that the deposed had learned---and only learned after a been there done that experience----and is not this whole current Iraqi occupation a lesson of unintended consequences we are only in the midst of learning?

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: techs

The first thing a Democratic government in Saudi Arabia will do is act to get the most money for their major product, oil.

I disagree with your premise.

I suspect the Suadi's already feel pretty confidently that they are getting the highest stable price for their oil. As StormRider notes, they learned a lesson in '70's.

Getting an even higher price in the short-term, at the expense of lower mid-to-long term price is poor "financial planning".

Those of us with degrees in Finance and/or accounting are prolly familiar with the arguement that, instead of immediate substanial price hikes, just leaving (as much of) it in the ground gives higher rates of return than selling for cash and investing the proceeds.

Unlike the '70's, we have many more & better developed alt energy technologies. If the Saudi's pushed so hard that we put those "on-line" they would risk long-term depressed sales.

Tha Saudi's have an enourmous amount of "financial intellectual capability", thanks to USA institutions. I'm pretty sure they know what they are doing, and a dictatorship can do it more quickly/efficiently than a democracy.

Fern

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: piasabird
A sustained high enough oil price will just urge the rest of the world to do more oil exploration and to find other alternatives to oil for fuel. It could have a very bad effect in the long run for Saudia Arabia.

Exactly. Democracy or not, what do you think Saudi Arabia is doing right now? Trying to be a good global citizen by providing the world with cheap oil? Of course not, they are trying to make as much money as they can...but they realize what piasabird said, "basic supply and demand" is too, well, basic for the situation.

 

[miketheidiot]

saudi arabia, like most of the middleeast, is simply not ready for for democracy, or already missed its chance.

 

[Drift3r]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
saudi arabia, like most of the middleeast, is simply not ready for for democracy, or already missed its chance.

It's not that it is not ready. It's that we are not ready to accept the will of the people in Saudi Arabia. There are no ethnic group divisions in Saudi Arabia like there are in Iraq so it would be very hard to play people against each other. You would see a very clear and well supported Islamic agenda in Saudi Arabia if democracy were allowed in that nation. If the will of the people in Saudi Arabia were allowed to take hold we'd have another country at odds with US economic and foreign policy in that region and frankly no one wants that to happen.

Democracy in the Middle East is just a buzz word politicians use to get people to join their bandwagon of war, economic and political manipulation of the region. Democracy will always come from within and will reflect the needs of the people and not the needs of the U.S. government or any other foreign power. That basic concept of fulfilling the will of the people is something our leaders don't want to see happen in the region. I mean how else would we be able to manipulate foreign leaders in that part of the world or justify our wars and our economic superiority? Where would you fly and land your plane loads of suspected terrorists to torture?

It's bad enough it spread into Central and South America and the common folk are using it to elect leaders they want instead of leaders Washington DC would rather have in power in that part of the globe.

 

[Aimster]

Saudi Arabia can be whatever they want to be.
They have no other source of income besides oil.

What do you think Saudi people do all day? They sleep. The rest of the country is foreign. They are the servants to the Saudi nationals.

If Saudi Arabia took any oil away their economy would see a decline in GDP.

 

[Drift3r]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Saudi Arabia can be whatever they want to be.
They have no other source of income besides oil.

What do you think Saudi people do all day? They sleep. The rest of the country is foreign. They are the servants to the Saudi nationals.

If Saudi Arabia took any oil away their economy would see a decline in GDP.

You mean the Saudi Royals can be whatever they want. The average guy on the street has to go along with whatever the princes and king tells them go along with or else...