Hello football fans! It's that time again - the 2015 NFL season is upon us, which means it's also time for our annual predictions!
I apologize for being so late with the picks this season. I also apologize if these seem a little...incomplete. I won’t lie to you, ATOT. I've been busy. I've got an 8 month tearing her way around my house, and I'm mired in project with a hellacious deadline at work, so I haven't had time to really put the care and effort into the picks as I normally do. Yea yea, you say. Excuses excuses. You've been saying that every season, Deeko, and we think your picks suck no matter how much time you spend on them. Good! Glad we're clear on that!
The usual caveats - I'm not a football analyst, I'm not proclaiming to be an expert, I'm just a fan who does this every season for fun. I try to be as unbiased as I can, but I can't avoid it entirely. You can find last season's picks at the end of the thread. In retrospect, there were some good picks, there were some bad picks. Now, on we go!
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) – The Cowboys overachieved last season. I actually think they’re a better team this year, despite losing DeMarco Murray, the defense should move up from a liability to average. That said, they’ll come back to earth a bit. If Sean Lee actually stays healthy, he and McClain are a very solid LB combo.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) – The Eagles are an intriguing team. Chip Kelly got full command and he used it; he wiped out a lot of the remaining pieces of the Reid era. What’s interested is that almost every player they signed is solid when healthy, but injury prone. Health will be a big factor for the birds.
3. New York Giants (7-9) – The offense should be reasonably strong as long as the line can keep Eli upright; they’ve got a terrifying receiving core that’s healthier than it was last season. That said, the defense leaves something to desire.
4. Washington Redskins (2-14) – An already bad team didn’t really get any better. Can anyone explain why I drafted Alfred Morris in fantasy football? I’m sure I’ll regret that decision in a few months.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3) – Wait, they lost a top receiver for the year? Meh…at this point, I’m starting to think these receivers just look good because it’s Rodgers throwing them the ball. Lacy turned it on at the end of the season, but Rodgers is all this team really needs.
2. Minnesota (8-8) – It’s hard to imagine Adrian Peterson returning to MVP form after a year off and turning 30, but his presence can’t hurt. They’ll be better, and Peterson will make Bridgewater look better too. Still not really contenders though.
3. Detroit Lions (7-9) – Overachievers that lost their best defensive players. Admittedly, Suh wasn’t worth the money he was asking, but it’s still a huge blow to the team.
4. Chicago Bears (7-9) – I am a big John Fox fan and I think he’ll have a positive effect on the defense. But how much tread does Forte have left on the tires? How many brain cells does Cutler have left? Defense will be better, but they’ll be inconsistent and turnover prone.
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-5) – Success tends to drain on a franchise. Players leave, or get bigger contracts, leaving less money for other pieces. I think Seattle got a steal on their deal with Wilson; he’s likely to prove not worth the astronomical numbers he wanted. But, Lynch is a year older, and the defense lost a few more pieces. Graham is a nice addition, but he won't be as good without Brees.
2. St Louis Rams (8-8) - Nick Foles just isn't a very good quarterback, he won't turn this team around. They'll be a little better, partially due to the rest of the division getting weaker, but they won't be a playoff team, despite a solid defense. But hey, they're young and rising, maybe next year they'll challenge for the division title.
3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10) – This franchise is a mess. Losing Harbaugh is going to hurt bad. Kaepernick doesn’t look the same. They’ll slide hard this season.
4. Arizona Cardinals (6-10) – The Cardinals are strong on defense, but the offensive line leaves something serious to be desired, as does the QB position, neither of which bodes well for your offense. Both together usually spells disaster.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (9-7) - Losing Graham hurts the offense, but they bolstered the offensive line and added Spiller which helps. As long as Brees is under center, they'll contend for the division. Helps that the south isn't very strong.
2. Atlanta Falcons (8-8) - There's part of me that wants to put the Falcons higher. Matt Ryan + their receiving duo is nasty. But they've been injury prone and the defense was pretty terrible last year, so they'll struggle.
3. Carolina Panthers (6-10) - They ended the season strong on defense, and drafted to make it better, but do you really trust their offense to put up any points? I don't. Cam Newton has fallen off big time, and their line is pretty bad too.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) - I was astonished in the 2014 offseason, when everyone was talking about the Bucs as the rising stars poised to leap to the top of the division. Turns out that was pretty wrong on all fronts.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (13-3) - The Patriots lost a few players in the offseason, as Superbowl champs are wont to do, but Brady beat deflategate and never underestimate Belichek / Brady when they're in "screw you" mode. They'll continue to be strong.
2. Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Dolphins paid WAY too much money for Suh, but at the same time, he's among the best linemen in the game, so you've got to pay a premium. They should continue to make strides off of last year, but it's hard to see them dethroning the Pats.
3. Buffalo Bills (8-8) - Buffalo was great on defense last year, and while adding McCoy looks good on paper, he's been beat up lately, and has more wear than his age indicates. They should see a lot of close, low scoring games that could fall either way.
4. New York Jets (6-10) - Oh the Jets....not often your starting QB gets knocked out by a teammate in the offseason. You'd think that sort of drama would leave with Rex Ryan. It didn't. But hey, they got Revis back. He's still one of the games' best.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) - I like the Ravens this year. Flacco doesn't deserve the..."flac"...that he gets from the general public, even if he's overpaid. Losing Ngata will hurt the defense, but all in all, I consider them the favorites in the AFC North.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) - Not too sure how I feel about the Steelers. The defense has shed the husks of former greats; the offense will certainly put up points, but it will be very un-Steeler like.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) - Another team that really overachieved last season. It's not necessarily that I think they got that much worse; I just don't think they were as good as they finished last season. Plus, Dalton.
4. Cleveland Browns (6-10) - Johnny Football did not look good last year. Their pass defense is great, but you need to score points.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (12-4) - Disappointing end to the season. Peyton definitely tailed off as the season went on; time will tell if that was just a rough end to the season or if he's just starting to lose his edge. But, he's still Peyton Manning, and their defense is pretty solid, so they'll dominate a mediocre division.
2. San Diego Chargers (9-7) - The Chargers were a funny team last year. They started off very strong and fell off very fast. The offense should remain competent, but the defense is a liability. I still think Rivers can get it done, but he needs pieces around him. Losing Matthews hurts.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) - Reid reunites with Maclin, which will help their offense. He's been reliable for Philadelphia...and they need it, how on earth did they not throw a TD to a WR last year? Charles remains one of the better backs in the league, and the defense will be decent.
4. Oakland Raiders (5-11) - The Raiders have a few nice pieces in place, I like what I've seen from Carr, but they're still the Raiders.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4) - Andrew Luck's team is scary on offense. The best young QB in the league will only continue to get better. They added some players to Luck's arsenal who may be over the hill, but it can't HURT to add Gore and Johnson to your offense. They'll win the South easily.
2. Houston Texans (8-8) - Texans made some strides to right the ship last year, and Watt is the best defensive player we've seen in years. But who is throwing the ball on offense? And is Foster actually going to play? They'll notch wins due to the Jags and Titans being terrible, but they won't come close to Indy.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) - Young QBs love a good tight end, they serve a nice security blanket, but you have to wonder if Julius Thomas is actually that good or if it was Peyton Manning. It won't matter of Bortles spends the entire game on his back anyway.
4. Tennessee Titans (4-12) - The Titans aren't very good. Wisenhunt is a good mentor, but still, they're not that talented and injury prone. Another rough year in Tennessee. Mariota might mature nicely under Wisenhunt, but it will take some time.
