Decades of Heightened Hurricane Activity Predicted

Amused

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Apr 14, 2001
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Decades of Heightened Hurricane Activity Predicted
By JOHN J. LUMPKIN, AP

WASHINGTON (Sept. 21) - Expect more hurricanes large and small in the next 10 to 20 years, the director of the federal National Hurricane Center said Tuesday.

Max Mayfield told a congressional panel that he believes the Atlantic Ocean is in a cycle of increased hurricane activity that parallels an increase that started in the 1940s and ended in the 1960s.

The ensuing lull lasted until 1995, then "it's like somebody threw a switch,'' Mayfield said. The number and power of hurricanes increased dramatically.

Under questioning by members of the Senate Commerce subcommittee on disaster prevention and prediction, he shrugged off the notion that global warming played a role, saying instead it was a natural cycle in the Atlantic Ocean that fluctuates every 25 to 40 years.

The increase ''is due to natural fluctuations/cycles of hurricane activity... and not enhanced substantially by global warming.''


Mayfield predicted several more named tropical storms this year. The latest, Hurricane Rita, is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November. Since record-keeping started in 1851, the record is 21 tropical storms, in 1933.

Mayfield also listed a number of cities and regions in addition to New Orleans he believes are "especially vulnerable'' to damage from a major hurricane: Houston and Galveston, Texas; Tampa; southern Florida and the Florida Keys; New York City and Long Island; and New England.

"Katrina will not be the last major hurricane to hit a vulnerable area,'' he said.

The center's predictions on Katrina's movements were more accurate than usual, but the storm grew more intense more quickly than expected as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico, he said. Three days before it made landfall on Aug. 29, computer models predicted it would hit near New Orleans.

Asked to assess the nation's ability to track hurricanes, one expert before the panel said forecasters have grown better at predicting the path of a storm over a few days but lag in their ability to gauge its intensity, rainfall distribution and surge in water levels.

Better sensors, computers and computer models of hurricane behavior can lead to improved forecasts, said Keith Blackwell of the Coast Weather Research Center at the University of South Alabama.

Senators praised the National Hurricane Center's accurate prediction of Katrina's track, calling it one of the few things the government has done correctly in regards to the storm.

"The people that did get out from the storm owe their lives to you and your people,'' said Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska.

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BTW, the decade with the highest number of hurricane strikes on record is... wait for it... 1941-50.

 

J0hnny

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2002
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I blame it on global warming. All the CO2 we're dumping into our environment with no way to offset the balance has got to be doing something!
 

Taggart

Diamond Member
Apr 23, 2001
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Originally posted by: J0hnny
I blame it on global warming. All the CO2 we're dumping into our environment with no way to offset the balance has got to be doing something!

I disagree. Increased global temperatures would increase the frequency of El Nino, which hasn't happened. El Nino is DEATH to hurricanes.
 

DaWhim

Lifer
Feb 3, 2003
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Originally posted by: J0hnny
I blame it on global warming. All the CO2 we're dumping into our environment with no way to offset the balance has got to be doing something!

I support $10 a gallon, so the amount of green-house gas dumped into our environment will drop by half, if not more.
 

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
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You know, it's absurd that not only does the nation's top Hurricane expert dispel the false idea of global warming being the cause of increased hurricanes, but history debunks it as well... yet people still cling to this crap.

Why?
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
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Originally posted by: Amused
You know, it's absurd that not only does the nation's top Hurricane expert dispel the false idea of global warming being the cause of increased hurricanes, but history debunks it as well... yet people still cling to this crap.

Why?

He didn't dispel. If you read what he said, the increase in hurricanes isn't related to it. Edit: He didn't dispell the notion of global warming.
 

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
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Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Originally posted by: Amused
You know, it's absurd that not only does the nation's top Hurricane expert dispel the false idea of global warming being the cause of increased hurricanes, but history debunks it as well... yet people still cling to this crap.

Why?

He didn't dispel. If you read what he said, the increase in hurricanes isn't related to it.

Um, yeah. He dispelled the myth that the increase in hurricane activity is caused by global warming. That's what I said in the bolded part of my quote.
 
Nov 7, 2000
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its a losing battle man. even when the cycle ends, people will claim its the successful result of their environmental campaigning....
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
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Originally posted by: Amused
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Originally posted by: Amused
You know, it's absurd that not only does the nation's top Hurricane expert dispel the false idea of global warming being the cause of increased hurricanes, but history debunks it as well... yet people still cling to this crap.

Why?

He didn't dispel. If you read what he said, the increase in hurricanes isn't related to it.

Um, yeah. He dispelled the myth that the increase in hurricane activity is caused by global warming. That's what I said in the bolded part of my quote.


That's why I edited it. What he and no one knows is if global warming might intensify the effect. Maybe yes, and maybe no. There aren't enough data points over time to say either way
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
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Originally posted by: Amused
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Originally posted by: Amused
You know, it's absurd that not only does the nation's top Hurricane expert dispel the false idea of global warming being the cause of increased hurricanes, but history debunks it as well... yet people still cling to this crap.

Why?

He didn't dispel. If you read what he said, the increase in hurricanes isn't related to it.

Um, yeah. He dispelled the myth that the increase in hurricane activity is caused by global warming. That's what I said in the bolded part of my quote.

Mainly because they can't handle the truth.