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evident said:
He isn't not going to run. He's our guy, and he's proven to be effective so far... Sure he fumbles his words but I mean he's got some serious legislation passed the last 2 years. I'm proud of the work he's done and will be happily voting for him again. He's not flashy but has been getting the job done.

Besides if anyone were to run on the Dems who would it be? America is too racist /homophobic to consider the two closest candidates: Kamala (not enough personality to eclipse the racists) and Buttegeig - lots of charisma but good luck getting the middle america to vote for a gay.

You have a choice, a boring normal president who is delivering 90% of the Democratic agenda or Trump who will destroy democracy and turn the Justice dept into his own personal revenge dept. If you think Desatan is any better, he flat out said he will ensure he has the tools of the Justice Dept and FBI at the will of the president. He's running in the Trump lane hoping that trump goes to jail or otherwise ineligble to run in the primary.
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You should expand your mind. We have other Democrats too, like Whitmer and Newsom for starters. This is the problem with Dems , they think too limited

Biden is old, you never know what happens in the next year before the campaign really gets going. That's just reality. It's a real possibility is all I'm saying.
 
Indus said:
Oh you mean invite the foxes to sleep with the chickens in the coop and then wonder why eggs are $7 a dozen when you have to go buy eggs?
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To be fair, that's not a good analogy. Eggs were $7 a dozen because the producers were price gouging and increased their profits over 700% behind the excuse of "production is down"
 
Brainonska511 said:
For all the complaints about Biden, it would be kind of politically stupid for Democrats to give up the huge incumbency advantage and have Biden not run.
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1) Yes, it would be stupid of them.

2) Who in the Democratic Party is going to successfully challenge him at this point? Unless he drops dead or some massive catastrophe happens no one of consequence is going to do that.

3) I don’t really get the complaints about Biden. At this point in his presidency I think he’s been extremely effective and he’s done so with razor thin margins. This is peak presidential performance.

4) While I would have preferred he simply declare the debt ceiling void he clearly got a better deal than Obama did.
 
I find it sad that some Democrats are unable to even consider the Democrats could do better than Joe Biden in 2024. I mean that's a symptom of the Democrats problem right there. Willing to accept probably the most flawed incumbent since at least Jimmy Carter and before that too.

I understand why some people don't get it, they don't even understand the Republican opposition well. And others just think that everybody understands well Biden is better than the other people.

The majority of the Democratic party doesn't even want biden to run. Sure most of them will vote but they're going to be a decent amount that stay home, and I know some. Because they're disappointed this is the best the democrats can do, I don't blame them. I'm going to convince them otherwise but it's a fucking problem. And forget independents. They're not going to tow any party line because they aren't Democrats in the first place.

I'm disappointed Biden didn't gracefully bow out. I don't want anybody to primary him, but we can still criticize the mediocrity of the democratic party's choices right now.

There is no guarantee Trump is going to be the nominee either. And also Biden has to really have a great campaign and not stumble. And he's already being treated with kid gloves and that's not a good look in a campaign either.

If Biden was a shoe-in, of course but he certainly is not. And the fact that Democrats are too timid to explore other options is the perfect example of the problem with the party in the first place.

Let's not forget we're dealing with the electoral college again. It didn't go away. And Biden won the electoral college in a squeaker. This isn't some guy who trounced Trump in the electoral college.
 
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I love Joe and what he's been able to accomplish thus far.

You can't undersell his age though. He's 80 now and the election is 2 years away still. 2 years difference at 80+ is much different than 2 years from 20 to 22. On top of that, the job is for 4 years - 86 years old is NOT young. Not to mention he's in the most stressful position in the world. We've all seen and commented on how being POTUS ages every one of them more quickly.

While I do think he was the right guy to run in 2020 and likely the only one able to beat Trump, I think the downside is what we're facing now in what to do in 2024. Clearly the choice is to run Biden again, but it's impossibly sad to me that there are not any alternatives.
 
fskimospy said:
1) Yes, it would be stupid of them.

2) Who in the Democratic Party is going to successfully challenge him at this point? Unless he drops dead or some massive catastrophe happens no one of consequence is going to do that.

3) I don’t really get the complaints about Biden. At this point in his presidency I think he’s been extremely effective and he’s done so with razor thin margins. This is peak presidential performance.

4) While I would have preferred he simply declare the debt ceiling void he clearly got a better deal than Obama did.
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Agreed on all points.

Well many voters are irrational, so the complaints don't have to make much sense. For Joe Biden, it's just two things: age and inflation. Age (is just a number and) can't be fixed and although inflation is shrinking, Biden's approval rating hasn't moved an inch over the past year. If you layer a mild recession on top of this cocktail, I'm worried that the general election campaign will turn into a "quagmire" of sorts.

And even if you assumed Biden doesn't earn the nomination, there doesn't currently seem to be a clear-cut candidate to beat Donald Trump. I'll support whoever the Democratic nominee is, but it absolutely must be someone who can win the general election. Headwinds aside, nobody can doubt that Biden can beat Trump because he's already done it before.
 
manly said:
Agreed on all points.

Well many voters are irrational, so the complaints don't have to make much sense. For Joe Biden, it's just two things: age and inflation. Age (is just a number and) can't be fixed and although inflation is shrinking, Biden's approval rating hasn't moved an inch over the past year. If you layer a mild recession on top of this cocktail, I'm worried that the general election campaign will turn into a "quagmire" of sorts.

And even if you assumed Biden doesn't earn the nomination, there doesn't currently seem to be a clear-cut candidate to beat Donald Trump. I'll support whoever the Democratic nominee is, but it absolutely must be someone who can win the general election. Headwinds aside, nobody can doubt that Biden can beat Trump because he's already done it before.
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Maybe you don't remember, but Biden squeaked by in a few swing states in the EC to win last time. There was no resounding win even then. People talk like Biden smacked down Trump so it has to be so easy again. So he should beat Turmp, but that is not even a guarantee AT ALL. Are you also guaranteeing that Trump will be the nominee? That is very naive thinking, there is still a whole primary season to go, anything can happen. Very naive.

The Dems should have been willing to try to find a more inspiring candidate, that even Democrats would be happy they are running, not someone a majority don't even want to see on the ticket, let alone independents not in the party. And someone that can't just probably beat Trump, but anyone else that comes out of a GQP primary, which is a ways away.

I've already learned how evil the GQP is long ago, but I am learning more and more the flaws of the Dem party with their acceptance of mediocrity over any risk to be better while not including fundamental things in their calculations. Which is why the Dem party is so far behind where it should be, even considering the lopsided governmental institutions we have now because of the outdated constitution.
 
MrSquished said:
Maybe you don't remember, but Biden squeaked by in a few swing states in the EC to win last time. There was no resounding win even then. People talk like Biden smacked down Trump so it has to be so easy again. So he should beat Turmp, but that is not even a guarantee AT ALL. Are you also guaranteeing that Trump will be the nominee? That is very naive thinking, there is still a whole primary season to go, anything can happen. Very naive.
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My counter to this would be, losing as an incumbent is pretty hard, doubly so in a political environment so min-maxed that most battleground races come down to 51% vs 49% and shit... By that measure, Biden beat Trump into the dirt.
 
Some of the high ranking Democrats in the House are sounding confident the Dem votes are there to pass the debt bill. Which annoys me because I favor the Progressive caucus on this vote but that's beside the point. Did those Dem leaders call each one of the House Dems or at least 90% of them? And how many answered that they haven't decided yet which way to vote?

The Dems in power who favor the bill aren't really addressing those questions unless I'm missing something. Sounds like they're making predictions it will pass based on their vibes without a decent House poll of Dems. Or a poll with a lot of undecideds that they're not releasing to the public. Edit: Don't really know if Dems call Repubs to poll them in the House. If not I guess they can get a report of Repub vote sentiment from the Repub leaders.
 
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[DHT]Osiris said:
My counter to this would be, losing as an incumbent is pretty hard, doubly so in a political environment so min-maxed that most battleground races come down to 51% vs 49% and shit... By that measure, Biden beat Trump into the dirt.
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Biden won by one of the largest margins over an incumbent in our lifetimes. He performed very strongly electorally.

As I’ve said many times people often confuse their personal politics for popular politics. Biden is a very strong electoral performer even if he doesn’t share all our personal politics.
 
PlanetJosh said:
Some of the high ranking Democrats in the House are sounding confident the Dem votes are there to pass the debt bill. Which annoys me because I favor the Progressive caucus on this vote but that's beside the point. Did those Dem leaders call each one of the House Dems or at least 90% of them? And how many answered that they haven't decided yet which way to vote?

The Dems in power who favor the bill aren't really addressing those questions unless I'm missing something. Sounds like they're making predictions it will pass based on their vibes without a decent House poll of Dems. Or a poll with a lot of undecideds that they're not releasing to the public. And speaking of House polls do Dem House leaders call most or all of the Repubs to poll them too? And would many of the Repubs even accept the call?

Edit: And if they don't personally call Repubs in the House I'm guessing the Dems just get a report of Repub vote sentiment from the Repub leaders.
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Because enough will hold their nose and vote yes to avoid a default. Period.
 
MrSquished said:
Maybe you don't remember, but Biden squeaked by in a few swing states in the EC to win last time. There was no resounding win even then. People talk like Biden smacked down Trump so it has to be so easy again. So he should beat Turmp, but that is not even a guarantee AT ALL. Are you also guaranteeing that Trump will be the nominee? That is very naive thinking, there is still a whole primary season to go, anything can happen. Very naive.

The Dems should have been willing to try to find a more inspiring candidate, that even Democrats would be happy they are running, not someone a majority don't even want to see on the ticket, let alone independents not in the party. And someone that can't just probably beat Trump, but anyone else that comes out of a GQP primary, which is a ways away.

I've already learned how evil the GQP is long ago, but I am learning more and more the flaws of the Dem party with their acceptance of mediocrity over any risk to be better while not including fundamental things in their calculations. Which is why the Dem party is so far behind where it should be, even considering the lopsided governmental institutions we have now because of the outdated constitution.
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You should know I'm probably closer to "your side" than a lot of other Democratic voters in here are. Nevertheless, your first point actually weakens your argument. The fact is that Biden was able to carry those Rust Belt swing states where I guarantee you some other candidates won't. Do you honestly think my gov. Newsom will win the Rust Belt? If so, please share the powerful drugs you are using. 😉 As for the GOP nominee, unless Trump dies, he or DeSantis will be the nominee. So we have a very good idea who we need to beat in the general election. Am I able to see into the future? Hell no, of course not.

Secondly, a lot of people here are saying you aren't even wrong but Biden is running again; so unless he dies between now and April, he's going to be the nominee. You know how the election game is played, the incumbent is rarely strongly challenged by his own party. I'm no historian, but who's the last incumbent to be defeated in the primary? You can keep banging the drum all you want that Joe isn't the best guy, but how does that change anything? It's well within your right to criticize the administration on performance, I have no beef there.

IIRC in early 2020, most of the head to head polls showed that Biden and Bernie Sanders would both be worthy challengers in the general election. Most of the others in the Democratic field were losing to Donald Trump at the time. For most of us, defeating Donald Trump was arguably the most consequential election outcome in a very long time. I never said anything about a resounding victory, all I said is that the Democratic nominee must be someone who can win the general. I also explicitly said I'm worried about how the electorate views Joe Biden, so obviously I don't feel he's a lock to beat anyone in the general election.
 
manly said:
You should know I'm probably closer to "your side" than a lot of other Democratic voters in here are. Nevertheless, your first point actually weakens your argument. The fact is that Biden was able to carry those Rust Belt swing states where I guarantee you some other candidates won't. Do you honestly think my gov. Newsom will win the Rust Belt? If so, please share the powerful drugs you are using. 😉 As for the GOP nominee, unless Trump dies, he or DeSantis will be the nominee. So we have a very good idea who we need to beat in the general election. Am I able to see into the future? Hell no, of course not.

Secondly, a lot of people here are saying you aren't even wrong but Biden is running again; so unless he dies between now and April, he's going to be the nominee. You know how the election game is played, the incumbent is rarely strongly challenged by his own party. I'm no historian, but who's the last incumbent to be defeated in the primary? You can keep banging the drum all you want that Joe isn't the best guy, but how does that change anything? It's well within your right to criticize the administration on performance, I have no beef there.

IIRC in early 2020, most of the head to head polls showed that Biden and Bernie Sanders would both be worthy challengers in the general election. Most of the others in the Democratic field were losing to Donald Trump at the time. For most of us, defeating Donald Trump was arguably the most consequential election outcome in a very long time. I never said anything about a resounding victory, all I said is that the Democratic nominee must be someone who can win the general. I also explicitly said I'm worried about how the electorate views Joe Biden, so obviously I don't feel he's a lock to beat anyone in the general election.
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Sorry it's not you who talks about Biden's resounding victory, it's others. It was not resounding. And against Trump too.

I am not saying Newsom is the one, but this should have been the time for the Dems to let some of their younger stars battle it out and take the helm; Whitmer is also one of them that immediately comes to mind. She is literally the governor of a rust belt state. Biden is being treated with kid gloves now by his administration, it's a bit concerning about in a year from now when the race heats up big time if he can handle things if they won't put him out there now. I think they are worried about him flubbing big time. At some point you can't hide the presidential candidate.

The Biden brand is exhausting to most people now, the ones who voted for him in 2020, and in his party, let alone independents that you are going to need. And in downballot races in slightly blue states where folks may sit home.

I appreciate that many people are saying they wish the Dems moved on too now, when before one couldn't even dare say that to most - but it is what it is now. I agree. I'm not going to shit on Biden during the primaries, and I already know I'm going to have to convince some progressives to go out and vote for him again here in blue NJ, because why go out and vote since he will win NJ anyway? Most don't care as much about downballot races.

But we are not there yet, so to me it is a good time for the Democratic party to take a good look at itself, reflect and prepare, in case we hopefully win in 2024, to move on from these types of overly cautious non inspirational thinking that is purely intellectual and fails to take into account the human experience of emotion.. I find people that just defend the Biden choice as the most sensible one and dont' dare look elsewhere as the fundamental problem with the Democratic party today.

I have read of one GQP fascists saying out loud about moving on from McCarthy already. The next 4 days should be interesting at least.
 
PlanetJosh said:
Some of the high ranking Democrats in the House are sounding confident the Dem votes are there to pass the debt bill. Which annoys me because I favor the Progressive caucus on this vote but that's beside the point. Did those Dem leaders call each one of the House Dems or at least 90% of them? And how many answered that they haven't decided yet which way to vote?

The Dems in power who favor the bill aren't really addressing those questions unless I'm missing something. Sounds like they're making predictions it will pass based on their vibes without a decent House poll of Dems. Or a poll with a lot of undecideds that they're not releasing to the public. Edit: Don't really know if Dems call Repubs to poll them in the House. If not I guess they can get a report of Repub vote sentiment from the Repub leaders.
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As @eelw said, Democrats in the House will help pass this bill because we are the grown-ups in the room and won't support a debt default. Something like 60-80 House Dems could vote yes, which means a lot of your "progressives" will vote no. I'm assuming most who cross the aisle are moderates or from competitive districts. And it isn't even crossing the aisle really when you're voting in service of your country and in step with your President.

As @fskimospy said, Obama gave up a lot more in 2011 and the GOP ultimately still tried to pants him.
 
K1052 said:
Huh. There was some discussion when the negotiated SNAP changes were floated that the new exemptions (homeless, vets, etc) would actually even out. Turns out they did and actually grow the program.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663689714145083392
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Half the argument for UBI is that it costs less to give everyone a flat amount than to have 15 make-work programs to judge a specific sub group of people to ensure they qualify for a lesser amount.
 
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