Dean Hachamovitch weighs in on Flash/HTML

[Pliablemoose]

Dean is the General Manager of Internet Explorer:

HTML5 Video

There’s been a lot of posting about video and video formats on the web recently. This is a good opportunity to talk about Microsoft’s point of view.
The future of the web is HTML5. Microsoft is deeply engaged in the HTML5 process with the W3C. HTML5 will be very important in advancing rich, interactive web applications and site design. The HTML5 specification describes video support without specifying a particular video format. We think H.264 is an excellent format. In its HTML5 support, IE9 will support playback of H.264 video only.
H.264 is an industry standard, with broad and strong hardware support. Because of this standardization, you can easily take what you record on a typical consumer video camera, put it on the web, and have it play in a web browser on any operating system or device with H.264 support (e.g. a PC with Windows 7). Recently, we publicly showed IE9 playing H.264-encoded video from YouTube. You can read about the benefits of hardware acceleration here, or see an example of the benefits at the 26:35 mark here. For all these reasons, we’re focusing our HTML5 video support on H.264.
Other codecs often come up in these discussions. The distinction between the availability of source code and the ownership of the intellectual property in that available source code is critical. Today, intellectual property rights for H.264 are broadly available through a well-defined program managed by MPEG LA. The rights to other codecs are often less clear, as has been described in the press. Of course, developers can rely on the H.264 codec and hardware acceleration support of the underlying operating system, like Windows 7, without paying any additional royalty.
Today, video on the web is predominantly Flash-based. While video may be available in other formats, the ease of accessing video using just a browser on a particular website without using Flash is a challenge for typical consumers. Flash does have some issues, particularly around reliability, security, and performance. We work closely with engineers at Adobe, sharing information about the issues we know of in ongoing technical discussions. Despite these issues, Flash remains an important part of delivering a good consumer experience on today’s web.

http://blogs.msdn.com/ie/archive/2010/04/29/html5-video.aspx

Hmmm, Apple and Microsoft saying there is no future for Flash?

 

[theeedude]

"Despite these issues, Flash remains an important part of delivering a good consumer experience on today’s web."
Meaning without Flash, you are missing an important part of good consumer experience on today's web. Maybe not in 5 years, but if I am buying a device for today's web, I would want it to play Flash.

 

[Deeko]

You failed to emphasize a very important line about Flash remaining very important in today's web.

In five years, maybe Flash won't be as big a deal. So? How many of us are buying gadgets today, concerned about its performance five years from now? Even the average consumer upgrades their stuff in that time frame.

 

[Pliablemoose]

You failed to emphasize a very important line about Flash remaining very important in today's web.

In five years, maybe Flash won't be as big a deal. So? How many of us are buying gadgets today, concerned about its performance five years from now? Even the average consumer upgrades their stuff in that time frame.

I quoted that, but didn't emphasize it, because this is a tech forum and we're likely forward thinking users...

Honestly, do you think Flash will be as important to everyone in a year from now? 2 years?

I think the transition will come fairly quickly.

 

[TheWart]

I quoted that, but didn't emphasize it, because this is a tech forum and we're likely forward thinking users...

Honestly, do you think Flash will be as important to everyone in a year from now? 2 years?

I think the transition will come fairly quickly.

Yea, I think saying it will take 5 years to move away from Flash is a little much. 5 years in consumer tech is forever. Already a lot of big name sites (including the big daddy of video sites, youtube) support non-flash video streaming.

 

[Deeko]

Its starting now, sure - but you're talking about Flash being dead? That means Hulu, Youtube, Vimeo, etc are all fully functional on HTML5, the thousands of games that are very popular to the average consumer are on to some other platform (I'm sorry, but Jobs' defense of "we have other games!" is laughable. That's like an xBox fan saying "I want Halo" and Sony saying "But we have Resistence!" He doesn't want Resistence, he wants Halo), and websites need to be off of flash-based menu systems. I realize the defense of "but mobiles can't do those hover menus anyway", but the question wasn't "when won't mobiles need it", it was "will the internet be off flash in five years".

What was the web like five years ago? Frankly, not all THAT different from now. The current web age started around that time, when the social networking craze started to hit its stride. A higher quantity of sites now look like some of the big sites from back then....but its not like in 2005 everyone was using frames on Geocities with marquee text titles.

 

[TheWart]

Its starting now, sure - but you're talking about Flash being dead? That means Hulu, Youtube, Vimeo, etc are all fully functional on HTML5, the thousands of games that are very popular to the average consumer are on to some other platform (I'm sorry, but Jobs' defense of "we have other games!" is laughable. That's like an xBox fan saying "I want Halo" and Sony saying "But we have Resistence!" He doesn't want Resistence, he wants Halo), and websites need to be off of flash-based menu systems. I realize the defense of "but mobiles can't do those hover menus anyway", but the question wasn't "when won't mobiles need it", it was "will the internet be off flash in five years".

What was the web like five years ago? Frankly, not all THAT different from now. The current web age started around that time, when the social networking craze started to hit its stride. A higher quantity of sites now look like some of the big sites from back then....but its not like in 2005 everyone was using frames on Geocities with marquee text titles.

Aren't youtube ad vimeo already fully html5 or .h264 compatible? I know I was browsing both using the iPad at the apple store without a problem. Hulu will make the move this year I bet, in addition to releasing a portable app version (you can't tell me Android users will use the Hulu flash site if an app is out lol).

As for games, I think that you can't dismiss Jobs' point so flippantly. What games in particular do you love to spend your time playing on flash? I would guess that the vast majority have an equal - or better - free version in the app store.

 

[Deeko]

I tried Youtube's HTML5 version back when it was first released - it played video, but it was not as fully featured as the regular version. They might have improved it since then.

I don't play any flash games. I don't play any mobile games. I'm not talking about me. I'm talking about the average user, like my 55 year old mom, that plays hundreds of random flash games. See my last point - its not all about the portable experience when we're talking about Flash actually dying. I realize this is the gadget forum, but again...the question wasn't "does device X need flash" it was "will Flash still be here in five years". There is still more web browsing done on an actual computer than on a portable device, and a lot of people use Flash for a lot of things on their desktop. Before Flash is irrelevant, those things need to be replaced.

 

[TheWart]

I tried Youtube's HTML5 version back when it was first released - it played video, but it was not as fully featured as the regular version. They might have improved it since then.

I don't play any flash games. I don't play any mobile games. I'm not talking about me. I'm talking about the average user, like my 55 year old mom, that plays hundreds of random flash games. See my last point - its not all about the portable experience when we're talking about Flash actually dying. I realize this is the gadget forum, but again...the question wasn't "does device X need flash" it was "will Flash still be here in five years". There is still more web browsing done on an actual computer than on a portable device, and a lot of people use Flash for a lot of things on their desktop. Before Flash is irrelevant, those things need to be replaced.

Fair enough, and I agree with your point. I would only argue that I would doubt that your 55 year old mom would really be trying to play a flash game on a mobile phone. I could be wrong though. Now, you might say that she would love a tablet but cant use an iPad b/c of the lack of flash, and to that I would have to say yea, in that case it seems as though an android tablet would be much better for her.

 

[SunnyD]

Microsoft WANTS flash to die. They want to push HTML5 and preferably Silverlight for rich web apps.

 

[Deeko]

Microsoft WANTS flash to die. They want to push HTML5 and preferably Silverlight for rich web apps.

Yea, I can't say I expected them to come in and start singing the praises of Flash when they make a competing product.

 

[Narmer]

I'm shocked, shocked that Microsoft would want Flash to die. It's like they don't have a Flash competitor and they really need Flash!!!

 

[theeedude]

I quoted that, but didn't emphasize it, because this is a tech forum and we're likely forward thinking users...

Honestly, do you think Flash will be as important to everyone in a year from now? 2 years?

I think the transition will come fairly quickly.

I think I am going to lose 10 lbs in a year, yet I still buy pants for my current waist size. Maybe in a year I won't need the extra width, but I'd rather wear baggy pants in a year than not be able to fit into them now.
If I am buying a device, I am buying it for the web the way it is at the time I am buying it, not for how I think the web is going to be in 1-2 years. It's not like ability to run Flash apps is forcing you to run them.

 

[Pliablemoose]

LOL, let's see what I'm missing in my use of an iPad or smartphone by not having Flash...

Don't play Farmville or any Flash games, don't visit any Flash dependent sites, hell, I'd been using a non Flash supporting smartphone for a year before someone pointed out they don't have Flash, I didn't even miss it or notice it's absence.

 

[Deeko]

LOL, let's see what I'm missing in my use of an iPad or smartphone by not having Flash...

Don't play Farmville or any Flash games, don't visit any Flash dependent sites, hell, I'd been using a non Flash supporting smartphone for a year before someone pointed out they don't have Flash, I didn't even miss it or notice it's absence.

Yes....and that's you. Ironic that the cry of the Apple fan is "its not about you, the techie, its about the average consumer!" Like it or not, a whole lot of the internet uses flash, and a whole lot of general users do use those sites. So "LOL" away, but that doesn't change the fact that Hachamovitich is correct - Flash is still very important to the internet today.

 

[dwell]

He does not even mention Silverlight. Wow.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Yes....and that's you. Ironic that the cry of the Apple fan is "its not about you, the techie, its about the average consumer!" Like it or not, a whole lot of the internet uses flash, and a whole lot of general users do use those sites. So "LOL" away, but that doesn't change the fact that Hachamovitich is correct - Flash is still very important to the internet today.

That would explain why Apple just became the #1 phone manufacturer in the US this quarter, all those people pissed about not having Flash on their iPhones and iPads.

It's a stupid argument, Flash is all but dead, all that remains is free HTML5 porn and Flash is toast.

We may as well be arguing about floppy disks...

 

[Deeko]

That would explain why Apple just became the #1 phone manufacturer in the US this quarter, all those people pissed about not having Flash on their iPhones and iPads.

It's a stupid argument, Flash is all but dead, all that remains is free HTML5 porn and Flash is toast.

We may as well be arguing about floppy disks...

I will repeat....this might be the gadgets and gears forum, but the internet extends beyond portable devices, believe it or not. Whether people are using iPhones is hardly overpowering the larger desktop usage of the internet. Flash is still very widely used on the internet as a whole. The average consumer uses it. You know this, so I don't know why you are sidestepping it. Just because you don't play farmville and don't watch Hulu doesn't mean that millions of people don't.

And I can't believe it took you guys this long to post that top US manufacturer blurb, it appeared on Gizmodo hours ago! Its a nice stat, but its basically saying they beat Motorola and Palm, since all the top phone manufacturers (Nokia, RIM, HTC, LG, Sony-Ericsson, etc) are based outside the US.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I will repeat....this might be the gadgets and gears forum, but the internet extends beyond portable devices, believe it or not. Whether people are using iPhones is hardly overpowering the larger desktop usage of the internet. Flash is still very widely used on the internet as a whole. The average consumer uses it. You know this, so I don't know why you are sidestepping it. Just because you don't play farmville and don't watch Hulu doesn't mean that millions of people don't.

And I can't believe it took you guys this long to post that top US manufacturer blurb, it appeared on Gizmodo hours ago! Its a nice stat, but its basically saying they beat Motorola and Palm, since all the top phone manufacturers (Nokia, RIM, HTC, LG, Sony-Ericsson, etc) are based outside the US.

Yes sir, Flash is alive and well. No problems with it being a standard for years and years to come

That critical app Farmville isn't being ported to the iPhone/iPad platform, ever. http://www.tuaw.com/2010/04/21/its-coming-farmville-heading-to-iphone-and-ipad/

 

[Deeko]

Yes sir, Flash is alive and well. No problems with it being a standard for years and years to come

That critical app Farmville isn't being ported to the iPhone/iPad platform, ever. http://www.tuaw.com/2010/04/21/its-coming-farmville-heading-to-iphone-and-ipad/

You keep harping on what is or is not on the iPad. By doing so, you are completely ignoring the fact that that has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not flash is dead. Since you seem to be drifting closer to the Apple troll mental state today, you might consider "iPhone support = dead on every other format!", but unfortunately, that is not in any way true.

Just because something is ported to an app on the iPhone, or the iPad, or Android, does not mean that its web-based equivalent is going away. Apple might be doing well as a smartphone manufacturer, but the ratio of users on the iPod Touch + iPhone + iPad to Every Other Web Enabled Platform Both Mobile And Desktop/Laptop is exceedingly low. I don't see why this is so hard for you to grasp.

I already said - many posts ago in this thread - that yes, Flash will die eventually. However, that has absolutely no bearing on the accuracy of Hachamovitch's statement that is remains an important component of today's web. Which it does.

 

[theeedude]

So where is this Farmville for iPad?
Here it is on Android: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9whFavOb2U

 

[zerocool84]

lol of course you'd want to discredit it but in that own article they say it's important so this thread didn't work for ya. Of course you only bolded the parts that stated your case and not the most important last sentence that said it's still important for today. Gadgets are built for today, not tomorrow or 5yrs from now. Microsoft has an Flash competitor so of course they'd say that but of course you don't care about that but they still say Flash is important. Of course you won't miss Flash. All Apple fans can't miss Flash at all or else you guys would be kicked out of Oz. You try to post something that discredits Flash but in that article you THINK discredits Flash it says it's important.

 

[dwell]

So where is this Farmville for iPad?
Here it is on Android: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9whFavOb2U

Looks great, especially how you have to pan and zoom the screen use it. Steve Jobs has a point. If you have to write all your Flash stuff again to accommodate the screen difference, why use Flash? Also, performance looks abysmal, and this is friggin' Farmville not Quake 3.

 

[Pliablemoose]

lol of course you'd want to discredit it but in that own article they say it's important so this thread didn't work for ya. Of course you only bolded the parts that stated your case and not the most important last sentence that said it's still important for today and gadgets are built for today, not tomorrow or 5yrs from now.

Do you honestly think it'll take 5 years for Flash to die?

The market will quickly show what is going to work.

Android will be their flagship for mobile Flash, if it really is so vital to smartphones, you'll see a fairly immediate response to Android phones with 2.2 installed in terms of sales.

I suspect, what instead will happen is that with less than a year your arguments will be pointless.

Adobe has pretty much bet the farm on a successful implementation on the Android OS. They've been promising mobile flash for literally years, I can post the link again, but I really don't want to bother, what was it 2007?

LULZ, just watched that video, that's flipping horrible.

 

[zerocool84]

Do you honestly think it'll take 5 years for Flash to die?

The market will quickly show what is going to work.

Android will be their flagship for mobile Flash, if it really is so vital to smartphones, you'll see a fairly immediate response to Android phones with 2.2 installed in terms of sales.

I suspect, what instead will happen is that with less than a year your arguments will be pointless.

Adobe has pretty much bet the farm on a successful implementation on the Android OS. They've been promising mobile flash for literally years, I can post the link again, but I really don't want to bother, what was it 2007?

but yet again you miss the most important part of the whole article

Despite these issues, Flash remains an important part of delivering a good consumer experience on today’s web.

I don't know anyone in the world who buys their products to surf the web years from now. No one knows what the web will bring years from now. Products made to surf the web are made to surf the web the way it is today. And the way it is today is Flash. You guys always seem to forget that. This article just doesn't work for you. I think you read everything except the last sentence.