Damn Netflix might be in some trouble

[isasir]

Originally posted by: Nitemare

Originally posted by: 0roo0roo

Originally posted by: isasir
The problem I see with Netflix is that there is hardly any person that will be a member of Netflix indefinitely. At some point, the majority of people have pretty much seen every movie they want to see, or at least have seen enough movies that it's not cost-effective to pay $18/mo. to rent movies.

i dunno, my queue is in the hundreds. adding those tv show dvds and stuff just racks it way up.

as for downloading movies... bleh, i want the dvd,the full quality, the features. not some compressed pos.

as for rental stores, their selection is lousy

Yup mine is always close to the cap of 500. TV series can eat up alot of slots and the local BB carries hardly anything but new releases.

Well I'd venture a guess that you are in the minority, in terms of Netflix customers. I'm sure they love you though.

My GF let me use her subscription for a few months, and I had a hard enough time finding movies I wanted to watch in those 2-3 months.

 

[faenix]

Viva la Netflix!

 

[BatmanNate]

I will continue to use them, because Blockbuster's B&M rentals and Comcast's VOD options neglect that fact that not everyone wants to watch the 10 shittiest movies to come out of hollywood in the last month. Selection has merit, and their service I've found to be excellent. Maybe they should diversify with music or game rentals? I'm not sure how that would hold up legally or licensing-wise, but blockbuster rents games and I'm sure it subsidizes their profits and continues to grow as consoles gain popularity.

 

[TranceNation]

Netflix raises guidance for Q4, jump in customer base.....

LOS GATOS, Calif., Nov. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX - News) today revised guidance for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2004. Netflix CEO and Co-founder Reed Hastings commented, "We're impressed with the demand for our service at our new price points. Although it is still early in the quarter, subscriber growth is exceeding our earlier expectations, churn appears to be heading toward historical lows, and U.S. SAC should be in the neighborhood of last quarter. The strategy of rapid subscriber growth we announced last month is working."

 

[NissanGurl]

Originally posted by: z0mb13
I wonder what their cost structure is..

Also, didnt netflix get a patent on online distribution system? How are other companies able to copy their method? especially walmart! walmart's site is sooo familiar to netflix's (with the stars for rating and all)

I don't know about the online patent, but I know they have a patent for the envelopes the movies arrive in.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: TranceNation

Netflix raises guidance for Q4, jump in customer base.....

LOS GATOS, Calif., Nov. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX - News) today revised guidance for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2004. Netflix CEO and Co-founder Reed Hastings commented, "We're impressed with the demand for our service at our new price points. Although it is still early in the quarter, subscriber growth is exceeding our earlier expectations, churn appears to be heading toward historical lows, and U.S. SAC should be in the neighborhood of last quarter. The strategy of rapid subscriber growth we announced last month is working."

And when blockbuster uses their excess capital to undercut them with a rent all the movies you want for unlimited time and mail it back or deliver locally for $15 a month what happens to netflix?

The reason the guidance is a sell is because this business model is EASILY duplicated and there are bigger guys on the block that have more capital and can afford even heavy loses with the simple goal to put them out of business. Consider the following, Blockbuster is going to aquire Hollywood video and become the largest retal store. Using the revenues from their local stores they could severely undercut Netflix wait till they go under then eliminate the online business or raise prices substantially. Blockbuster has recently recoginzed Netflix as a threat and has begun the process to eliminate them, it's simply a matter of time.

 

[TranceNation]

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: TranceNation

Netflix raises guidance for Q4, jump in customer base.....

LOS GATOS, Calif., Nov. 17 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX - News) today revised guidance for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2004. Netflix CEO and Co-founder Reed Hastings commented, "We're impressed with the demand for our service at our new price points. Although it is still early in the quarter, subscriber growth is exceeding our earlier expectations, churn appears to be heading toward historical lows, and U.S. SAC should be in the neighborhood of last quarter. The strategy of rapid subscriber growth we announced last month is working."

And when blockbuster uses their excess capital to undercut them with a rent all the movies you want for unlimited time and mail it back or deliver locally for $15 a month what happens to netflix?

The reason the guidance is a sell is because this business model is EASILY duplicated and there are bigger guys on the block that have more capital and can afford even heavy loses with the simple goal to put them out of business. Consider the following, Blockbuster is going to aquire Hollywood video and become the largest retal store. Using the revenues from their local stores they could severely undercut Netflix wait till they go under then eliminate the online business or raise prices substantially. Blockbuster has recently recoginzed Netflix as a threat and has begun the process to eliminate them, it's simply a matter of time.

though NFLX is a threat to BB, BB is NOT a threat to NFLX, just like WLMT is not seen as a threat to NFLX.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: isasir
The problem I see with Netflix is that there is hardly any person that will be a member of Netflix indefinitely. At some point, the majority of people have pretty much seen every movie they want to see, or at least have seen enough movies that it's not cost-effective to pay $18/mo. to rent movies.

I watch a ton of movies. I am a huge movie addict. I get 16 movies a month and pay $21. It's a lot cheaper than Blockbuster

 

[flot]

I'm annoyed that the article didn't actually expand on why analysists think netflix is doomed.

I think it's a great model. I have already (in 4 months) paid Netflix more than I paid blockbuster in the last 2 years. And on top of that, I actually LIKE netflix, whereas I have grown to hate blockbuster with a passion. I rent a completely reasonable # of movies (like 4-5 a month, tops) and for $20 a month I am happy with what I get - namely, NOT waiting in lines, NOT having to browse through aisles and aisles of crap, NOT standing in a video store with my gf for 45 mins trying to decide what to get, NOT having to re-apply for a membership card every 9 months because I lost it, NOT having to pay a $9 late fee on a $5 rental which I could have bought for $14 at target anyway, etc, etc, etc.

If netflix were to get bought out by blockbuster I'd cancel my subscription just on general princlple.