Been in and out of the bitcoin game for a while, small time only. What I can do with my 6970's only.
I bought the cards for gaming -- I've probably pocketed 80 dollars off and on over the past 6 months. After the last crash I stopped mining (and because Texas summers don't mix well with all the heat from my GPUs)
I've been doing the math and really want to order 3 or 4 of the Butterfly Labs Jalapenos... only problem is the fact you don't really know when you are going to get them, and from what I've seen the first shipment allocations are already filled up. Forking over $500 dollars and sitting around waiting for 3 or 4 months while the difficulty skyrockets just doesn't sit well.
Been playing with the profitibility calc -- it has factors for the block reward, difficulty, investment, all that jazz. We know the reward is dropping to 25BTC per block soon. Difficulty will skyrocket when you start dumping hundreds of GH/s onto the system. If difficulty goes up 10X it would literally take over a year to make my money back on 4 Jalapenos. This is all under the assumption I won't be paying for electricity either (all bills paid rent setup)
Profitibility calc:
http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
Now if I had money falling outta my butt I wouldn't hesistate to take the gamble and see if I could have some bitcoin fun, best case scenerio would be getting a few Jalapenos in OCT and mining your ass off before the difficulty shoots up (and it will) that initial window is the only place you have to make fast easy money. Just like when bitcoin started.
If I could have gotten in the initial allocation for a few Butterfly labs units, I would have jumped on it so I could be in the initial wave of people banking and getting their units paid for "for free" in essence. Sure, once ASIC mining hits the streets, GPU's will largely be useless again. Let's say the average casual miner has a crossfire setup pulling down 500-700MHash. Just one Jalapeno 3.6GH/s unit means that five people need to exit the mining game completely for the difficulty to stay the same.
I can't for the life of me figure out why buttefly labs... once they get a shipment together mine themselves for a week or so they would get an amazing amount of BTC and THEN get to sell the units on top of that - essentially double dipping.