Could Sen Allen lose his seat?

[dullard]

Allen failed to disclose stock options.

Rasmussen put him at a 6% (+-4.5%) lead before the latest scandal.

So what is your opinion on his chances at success? Will the slur + SEC violation + general lack of GOP support result in Allen losing? I think there won't be a rush of support for his democratic opponent. But there may just be a lack of support for Allen. Thus Webb will squeak by and barely win.

 

[Lemon law]

All I can say is that Allen seems to have a particular knack for shooting himself in the foot---in a high profile race---surely he can't think that the existance of these stock options won't come out.

Do we need people who can't see the future clearly in the US Senate? Actions have consequences. And so in this case do sins of ommission.

But I remember watching the Webb Allen debate on meet the depressed some weeks ago---and could only conclude that they were both idiots. Either way,
the people of Virginia lose in MHO---as do the people of the USA.

Surely both parties could have come up with better candidates with less baggage or bats in the belfrey.

 

[imported_Lothar]

As much as I would love to see him lose, the Webb campaign team is inefficient.

Allen already has this race won.
The Dems need to shift resources to other parts of the country like New Jersey, Tennesee, and Missouri where it's needed.

 

[nageov3t]

I think it's a tight race.

much like NJ, it could be carried simply by people voting straight party lines.

as a NJ resident, I'm almost tempted to vote for Kean, but unfortunately, I know that he'd vote for whatever hardcore right winger the party nominates for majority leader.

 

[Lemon law]

Never say never in politics---lots of October surprises yet to surface---and many a slip between cup and lip.

 

[Tom]

the dumbest senator, but lots of voters can identify with him. :laugh:

 

[ayabe]

I'm just happy that I think we can finally put the "Allen in '08" campaign to bed.

 

[Pens1566]

No one ever accused him of being the sharpest knife in the drawer. I'm confident he can find a way to f*** it up.

 

[ProfJohn]

I agree with Lothar, Web never really had a chance I think. It was just a bunch of hype for a Democrat who once worked for Republican hero Reagan.

For what I hear Web's camaign is sort of a mess, the same with Allen too, but Allen is well known and popular. People are more likely to forgive him, plus he is the guy who got rid of the car tax, a HUGELY unpopular tax. I was living there during this time, everyone hated it.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: ayabe
I'm just happy that I think we can finally put the "Allen in '08" campaign to bed.

How so?
I would think winning(especially if he turns out to be one of the few republicans winning reelection this term) will increase his national recognition.

If Warner had accepted to challenge him last year, that would have put his presidential campaign team to bed.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: ayabe
I'm just happy that I think we can finally put the "Allen in '08" campaign to bed.

How so?
I would think winning(especially if he turns out to be one of the few republicans winning reelection this term) will increase his national recognition.

If Warner had accepted to challenge him last year, that would have put his presidential campaign team to bed.

He's too dirtied by this campaign to have a real shot at President. He's popular in Virginia and STILL he's having quite a fight to keep his seat, people may know who he is on a national level, but the impression they are getting isn't a good one. Allen has what I like to call the "Ted Kennedy problem", his national attention has been very mixed no matter how popular he might be in his home state. Allen would be going into the campaign with a huge disadvantage, especially if the Dems nominated someone with no big black mark against them.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: ayabe
I'm just happy that I think we can finally put the "Allen in '08" campaign to bed.

How so?
I would think winning(especially if he turns out to be one of the few republicans winning reelection this term) will increase his national recognition.

If Warner had accepted to challenge him last year, that would have put his presidential campaign team to bed.

He's too dirtied by this campaign to have a real shot at President. He's popular in Virginia and STILL he's having quite a fight to keep his seat, people may know who he is on a national level, but the impression they are getting isn't a good one. Allen has what I like to call the "Ted Kennedy problem", his national attention has been very mixed no matter how popular he might be in his home state. Allen would be going into the campaign with a huge disadvantage, especially if the Dems nominated someone with no big black mark against them.

I agree with Rain, BUT BUT BUT HUGE BUT, we knew about Clinton and Gennifer Flowers before he was elected and that didn't stop people from voting for him. Two years is a lifetime in politics, never know what could happen.

Allen's biggest problem is that he is a senator. Should have gone from the statehouse to the White House, with mayber a stop on the speakers tour or something ala Giuliani.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: ayabe
I'm just happy that I think we can finally put the "Allen in '08" campaign to bed.

How so?
I would think winning(especially if he turns out to be one of the few republicans winning reelection this term) will increase his national recognition.

If Warner had accepted to challenge him last year, that would have put his presidential campaign team to bed.

He's too dirtied by this campaign to have a real shot at President. He's popular in Virginia and STILL he's having quite a fight to keep his seat, people may know who he is on a national level, but the impression they are getting isn't a good one. Allen has what I like to call the "Ted Kennedy problem", his national attention has been very mixed no matter how popular he might be in his home state. Allen would be going into the campaign with a huge disadvantage, especially if the Dems nominated someone with no big black mark against them.

I agree with Rain, BUT BUT BUT HUGE BUT, we knew about Clinton and Gennifer Flowers before he was elected and that didn't stop people from voting for him. Two years is a lifetime in politics, never know what could happen.

Allen's biggest problem is that he is a senator. Should have gone from the statehouse to the White House, with mayber a stop on the speakers tour or something ala Giuliani.

That's true, Allen wouldn't be the first politician to shake off a negative image and get elected president. Two years can be a long time in politics, but it's funny what people remember and what they tend to forget. I think people are a lot more willing to forgive Clintonesque indescretions than they are to forgive anything that smacks of bigotry or racism. Hell, I think one of the reasons Steele in Maryland is doing as well as he's doing is that people don't like the "Uncle Tom" attacks, even though they aren't coming from Cardin himself.

I also agree with the Senator comment, senators and congressmen do not have as great a chance of moving to the White House as, say, a governor would. However, if the Democrat nomination in 2008 is a Senator as well...that would even things out a bit. And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like well known Dems who could run tend to be more of the senator variety. Are there any really well known and well liked Democrat governors that would have a shot?

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
That's true, Allen wouldn't be the first politician to shake off a negative image and get elected president. Two years can be a long time in politics, but it's funny what people remember and what they tend to forget. I think people are a lot more willing to forgive Clintonesque indescretions than they are to forgive anything that smacks of bigotry or racism. Hell, I think one of the reasons Steele in Maryland is doing as well as he's doing is that people don't like the "Uncle Tom" attacks, even though they aren't coming from Cardin himself.

I also agree with the Senator comment, senators and congressmen do not have as great a chance of moving to the White House as, say, a governor would. However, if the Democrat nomination in 2008 is a Senator as well...that would even things out a bit. And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like well known Dems who could run tend to be more of the senator variety. Are there any really well known and well liked Democrat governors that would have a shot?

The stupid Allen comments will hurt more when the Dems try to smear him than in the primaries.

For your second part... get in my time machine, it is now October 1990.
Rain: "Hey John did you hear Bill Clinton wants to be President?"
John "Who the hell is he?"

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Rainsford
That's true, Allen wouldn't be the first politician to shake off a negative image and get elected president. Two years can be a long time in politics, but it's funny what people remember and what they tend to forget. I think people are a lot more willing to forgive Clintonesque indescretions than they are to forgive anything that smacks of bigotry or racism. Hell, I think one of the reasons Steele in Maryland is doing as well as he's doing is that people don't like the "Uncle Tom" attacks, even though they aren't coming from Cardin himself.

I also agree with the Senator comment, senators and congressmen do not have as great a chance of moving to the White House as, say, a governor would. However, if the Democrat nomination in 2008 is a Senator as well...that would even things out a bit. And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like well known Dems who could run tend to be more of the senator variety. Are there any really well known and well liked Democrat governors that would have a shot?

The stupid Allen comments will hurt more when the Dems try to smear him than in the primaries.

For your second part... get in my time machine, it is now October 1990.
Rain: "Hey John did you hear Bill Clinton wants to be President?"
John "Who the hell is he?"

Good point, and it's not like George W. Bush had a lot of national attention before he ran in 2000.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: ayabe
I'm just happy that I think we can finally put the "Allen in '08" campaign to bed.

How so?
I would think winning(especially if he turns out to be one of the few republicans winning reelection this term) will increase his national recognition.

If Warner had accepted to challenge him last year, that would have put his presidential campaign team to bed.

He's too dirtied by this campaign to have a real shot at President. He's popular in Virginia and STILL he's having quite a fight to keep his seat, people may know who he is on a national level, but the impression they are getting isn't a good one. Allen has what I like to call the "Ted Kennedy problem", his national attention has been very mixed no matter how popular he might be in his home state. Allen would be going into the campaign with a huge disadvantage, especially if the Dems nominated someone with no big black mark against them.

I agree with Rain, BUT BUT BUT HUGE BUT, we knew about Clinton and Gennifer Flowers before he was elected and that didn't stop people from voting for him. Two years is a lifetime in politics, never know what could happen.

Allen's biggest problem is that he is a senator. Should have gone from the statehouse to the White House, with mayber a stop on the speakers tour or something ala Giuliani.

That's true, Allen wouldn't be the first politician to shake off a negative image and get elected president. Two years can be a long time in politics, but it's funny what people remember and what they tend to forget. I think people are a lot more willing to forgive Clintonesque indescretions than they are to forgive anything that smacks of bigotry or racism. Hell, I think one of the reasons Steele in Maryland is doing as well as he's doing is that people don't like the "Uncle Tom" attacks, even though they aren't coming from Cardin himself.

I also agree with the Senator comment, senators and congressmen do not have as great a chance of moving to the White House as, say, a governor would. However, if the Democrat nomination in 2008 is a Senator as well...that would even things out a bit. And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like well known Dems who could run tend to be more of the senator variety. Are there any really well known and well liked Democrat governors that would have a shot?

Bill Richardson, Mark Warner, and Evan Bayh.
Evan Bayh is a steal of Indiana's electoral votes...If the democrats could win in their "usual" states plus one other state(*Cough*Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, Iowa, or Colorado*cough*), they'll coast to victory.
The same can be said about Mark Warner/Virginia and Bill Richardson/New Mexico.

Unlike the Republican primary in which a candidate is automatically dumped for running on the democratic philosophy (abortion, gun, death penalty, etc...), none of these candidates will lose running on the Republican philosophy.
Heck, if Hillary changes her stance(she's been doing that), she'll still win the primary.

The only people stopping these candidates are Hillary and Kerry.
I hope they'll decide not to run for the good of their party.

I find it funny that a governor would have a better shot than a senator, when the senator has the better chance for national recognition.
Yes, I know history with the last 4-5 presidents haven't turned out that way.

 

[Mudbone]

Allen is wounded but probably not mortally so.

Basically, Allen appears to be a more 'athletic' version of GWB . . . football QB vs cheerleader.

Webb started too slow and too late to overcome Allen's formidable advantages: name recognition, former governor, incumbent and money.

<--- NOC codename for BaliBabyDoc :roll:

 

[CellarDoor]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: ayabe
I'm just happy that I think we can finally put the "Allen in '08" campaign to bed.

How so?
I would think winning(especially if he turns out to be one of the few republicans winning reelection this term) will increase his national recognition.

If Warner had accepted to challenge him last year, that would have put his presidential campaign team to bed.

He's too dirtied by this campaign to have a real shot at President. He's popular in Virginia and STILL he's having quite a fight to keep his seat, people may know who he is on a national level, but the impression they are getting isn't a good one. Allen has what I like to call the "Ted Kennedy problem", his national attention has been very mixed no matter how popular he might be in his home state. Allen would be going into the campaign with a huge disadvantage, especially if the Dems nominated someone with no big black mark against them.

I agree with Rain, BUT BUT BUT HUGE BUT, we knew about Clinton and Gennifer Flowers before he was elected and that didn't stop people from voting for him. Two years is a lifetime in politics, never know what could happen.

Allen's biggest problem is that he is a senator. Should have gone from the statehouse to the White House, with mayber a stop on the speakers tour or something ala Giuliani.

That's true, Allen wouldn't be the first politician to shake off a negative image and get elected president. Two years can be a long time in politics, but it's funny what people remember and what they tend to forget. I think people are a lot more willing to forgive Clintonesque indescretions than they are to forgive anything that smacks of bigotry or racism. Hell, I think one of the reasons Steele in Maryland is doing as well as he's doing is that people don't like the "Uncle Tom" attacks, even though they aren't coming from Cardin himself.

I also agree with the Senator comment, senators and congressmen do not have as great a chance of moving to the White House as, say, a governor would. However, if the Democrat nomination in 2008 is a Senator as well...that would even things out a bit. And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like well known Dems who could run tend to be more of the senator variety. Are there any really well known and well liked Democrat governors that would have a shot?

Evan Bayh and Mark Warner are a couple. Mark Warner had a 74% approval rating when he left office as a Democrat in Virginia. Evan Bayh also had a great approval rating as governor of Indiana.

 

[Lemon law]

I know a little about Evan Bayh---outside of Indiana---he has had very little luck getting any name recognition or support. Even in neighboring states.

But I see little wrong with having both state governer and U.S. senator on your resume---but Bayh has done little to define his positions---especially on the Iraq issue.
To get some name recognition he is going to have to make some issues his own---you can only play cozy for so long.

 

[ayabe]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Rainsford
That's true, Allen wouldn't be the first politician to shake off a negative image and get elected president. Two years can be a long time in politics, but it's funny what people remember and what they tend to forget. I think people are a lot more willing to forgive Clintonesque indescretions than they are to forgive anything that smacks of bigotry or racism. Hell, I think one of the reasons Steele in Maryland is doing as well as he's doing is that people don't like the "Uncle Tom" attacks, even though they aren't coming from Cardin himself.

I also agree with the Senator comment, senators and congressmen do not have as great a chance of moving to the White House as, say, a governor would. However, if the Democrat nomination in 2008 is a Senator as well...that would even things out a bit. And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like well known Dems who could run tend to be more of the senator variety. Are there any really well known and well liked Democrat governors that would have a shot?

The stupid Allen comments will hurt more when the Dems try to smear him than in the primaries.

For your second part... get in my time machine, it is now October 1990.
Rain: "Hey John did you hear Bill Clinton wants to be President?"
John "Who the hell is he?"

Yeah just what we need another incompetant frat boy in the White House.

This guy had a noose hanging outside his office, sorry but you can't run for President and be an out and out racists these days.

I hope he is nominated, he won't have a chance in hell of getting elected.

You should run Newt instead, I'm sure people have forgotten all about his ethics problems and the fact that he divorced his wife dying of cancer to run off with his assistant; that will definately win over the evangelicals.