Contestants on Jeopardy lack strategy

[weirdichi]

NOTE: be aware this is an old thread.
admin allisolm

I've realized that some contestants are damn smart, but have no strategy at all when it comes to the daily double.

If it's the first round, the scores are a couple thousand dollars each, and you're behind, why not risk it all? You can make it up in the double jeopardy round.

If you have a huge lead, why not seek out the daily doubles in the second round so the other contestants can't catch up? I'd seek them out to reduce the chances of a comeback.

Why make a bid so that if you get the correct answer, you jump to just a shade under the lead? Bid so that you take the lead; it's a few hundred dollars.

There are some more things, but I can't think of them at this moment.

 

[amdhunter]

I never got why they just don't choose $1000 questions from the start.

 

[TuxDave]

If you have a huge lead, why not seek out the daily doubles in the second round so the other contestants can't catch up? I'd seek them out to reduce the chances of a comeback.

How does one do this?

 

[Spikesoldier]

yeah how can you seek something thats randomly distributed?

 

[Locut0s]

I never got why they just don't choose $1000 questions from the start.

Probably because they want to get a feeling for the category first.

 

[ShawnD1]

How does one do this?

Good question. I always thought they were random.


There's really no strategy in jeopardy. Everyone can answer any question. If you pick the ones with the highest dollar values, you could still get destroyed by the guy who buzzes quicker and knows the answers.

 

[Locut0s]

Good question. I always thought they were random.


There's really no strategy in jeopardy. Everyone can answer any question. If you pick the ones with the highest dollar values, you could still get destroyed by the guy who buzzes quicker and knows the answers.

The thing I wonder is how well to they calibrate the buzzers?

 

[the unknown]

The thing I don't get is in final jeopardy, they never use pot odds.

Since if you place second you only get 2k, it's almost always a good idea to risk everything if you're in second place because usually you can get more than 3:1 on your money. Say scores are 12k, 10k, 3k. If the second place guy wagers and doubles it and the leader screws up, he gets 20k. But if he loses everything and drops to 3rd place he only loses 1,000. This is better than risking a smaller portion like 4k to ensure he remains in second place 'cause even though he is guaranteed 2k, he could risk that 1k extra to make 6k more.

 

[IGemini]

Since if you place second you only get 2k, it's almost always a good idea to risk everything if you're in second place because usually you can get more than 3:1 on your money. Say scores are 12k, 10k, 3k. If the second place guy wagers and doubles it and the leader screws up, he gets 20k. But if he loses everything and drops to 3rd place he only loses 1,000. This is better than risking a smaller portion like 4k to ensure he remains in second place 'cause even though he is guaranteed 2k, he could risk that 1k extra to make 6k more.

This doesn't account for the possibility that the leader could blow the question and lose everything but the underdog could double their money and potentially win. In that case it's the difference between them being in 1st and 2nd/3rd place, which usually makes a bigger difference.

 

[CZroe]

OP:
"If you're behind, why not risk it all to catch up?"
"If you're ahead, wehy not be risky to extend your lead?"

Uhh... because both strategies can work against you. Also, you don't know how much to risk to take the lead because you don't know if the others are going to win or lose their wagers.

 

[Aluvus]

Good question. I always thought they were random.


There's really no strategy in jeopardy. Everyone can answer any question. If you pick the ones with the highest dollar values, you could still get destroyed by the guy who buzzes quicker and knows the answers.

The Daily Doubles are in the middle 3 dollar values. Ken Jennings was well known for aggressively looking for them, jumping around categories haphazardly. This was disorienting for opponents, and by the time it came to Double Jeopardy he was already on a roll. I would say it worked, but in part because he was just very good.

IIRC, IBM's Watson did roughly the same thing.

 

[mugs]

The thing I don't get is in final jeopardy, they never use pot odds.

Since if you place second you only get 2k, it's almost always a good idea to risk everything if you're in second place because usually you can get more than 3:1 on your money. Say scores are 12k, 10k, 3k. If the second place guy wagers and doubles it and the leader screws up, he gets 20k. But if he loses everything and drops to 3rd place he only loses 1,000. This is better than risking a smaller portion like 4k to ensure he remains in second place 'cause even though he is guaranteed 2k, he could risk that 1k extra to make 6k more.

A second place player who bets less than all of his money isn't doing so to ensure he remains in second, he's doing it to improve his chances of finishing first. That is, if he's smart.

Consider the following facts:
1. The first place player knows the maximum money the 2nd place player can end up with.
2. The second place player knows how much money the first place player would have to bet to ensure the 2nd place player can't catch up (assuming first place player answers correctly).
3. If the first place player bets to ensure victory, the only way the second place player can win is if the first place player answers incorrectly.

The second place player should start with the assumption that the first place player is going to bet to ensure victory AND answer incorrectly, because that is the second place player's only realistic chance of victory. The second place player should calculate the first place player's score in this scenario and bet accordingly. Depending on how close their scores are, it's possible for the second place player to win regardless of whether he answers the final jeopardy question correctly.

Consider your scenario:
First place player would have to bet $8001, leaving him with $3999 if he answers incorrectly. Second place player should bet less than $4000 so he ends up with more than $6000, which is what the third place player could end up with. This would ensure that he wins if the first place player answers incorrectly.

 

[weirdichi]

Good question. I always thought they were random.


There's really no strategy in jeopardy. Everyone can answer any question. If you pick the ones with the highest dollar values, you could still get destroyed by the guy who buzzes quicker and knows the answers.

That is true, but if you control the board and have a big lead and the other two may catch up, then pick the middle values (better chance of hitting a daily double) just to reduce the chances of the other two catching up. A few weeks back, a guy with a big lead actively sought the daily doubles and when he hit it, he bet 100 just to get rid of it so the other two cannot possibly have a higher chance of catching up.

My point is that there IS some sort of strategy to the betting and daily doubles, yet most players start from top to bottom, playing like the other two players aren't there.

 

[the unknown]

Consider your scenario:
First place player would have to bet $8001, leaving him with $3999 if he answers incorrectly. Second place player should bet less than $4000 so he ends up with more than $6000, which is what the third place player could end up with. This would ensure that he wins if the first place player answers incorrectly.

Yeah yeah, I get it. I should have made it where the 3rd place person has no chance of winning. I still see second place people where they need the "1st place answers it wrong, I have to answer it right" scenario where they should double their money no matter what. People fight for second, when in reality they should double their money or lose everything.

 

[silverpig]

One thing I never got about jeopardy is why doesn't a contestant ALWAYS buzz in and always get the answer right? Seems like the best way to go no?

 

[M0oG0oGaiPan]

I think ken jennings said that most of the contestants know the majority of the answers. It's the buzzing in at the right time that gets them. There's a light that goes off before they can buzz in or something.

What's the secret of the Jeopardy! buzzer?
If you watch Jeopardy! casually, it's easy to assume that the player doing most of the answering is the one who knew the most answers, but that's not necessarily true. All three contestants, after all, passed the same very hard test to be there. Most of the contestants can answer most of the questions. But Jeopardy! victory goes not to the biggest brain—it goes to the smoothest thumb. Timing on the tricky Jeopardy! buzzer is often what separates the winner from the, well, non-winners, and the Jeopardy! buzzer is a cruel mistress.

Here's how it works: the buzzers don't get activated until Alex is finished reading each question. If you buzz in too early, the system actually locks you out for a fifth of a second or so. But if you're too late, the player next to you is going to get in first. Somewhere between too early and too late is a very narrow sweet spot, like swinging a tennis racket or a baseball bat. No, that's not right. The Jeopardy! buzzer, she is like a woman. No, that's not it either. All I know is, the more I thought about the timing, the less I could nail it. When I could somehow just Zen out and not think about what I was doing, I would do okay.​

 

[Schfifty Five]

One thing I never got about jeopardy is why doesn't a contestant ALWAYS buzz in and always get the answer right? Seems like the best way to go no?

win

 

[the DRIZZLE]

Good question. I always thought they were random.


There's really no strategy in jeopardy. Everyone can answer any question. If you pick the ones with the highest dollar values, you could still get destroyed by the guy who buzzes quicker and knows the answers.

There's one exception. They don't always finish the entire board, so you want to maximize your exposure to categories that you feel you are the strongest at by playing the high dollar values first.

 

[mizzou]

Oh...but wait! The kids do!


Necro thread

 

[Dari]

Oh...but wait! The kids do!


Necro thread

Yeah, the kid that bet $18k on the daily double shocked everyone. I was impressed. He just said "fuck it. It's all or nothing now."

 

[mizzou]

Yeah, the kid that bet $18k on the daily double shocked everyone. I was impressed. He just said "fuck it. It's all or nothing now."

yep. Anyone should be able to appreciate that, he won by strategy, luck, and balls.

 

[Sluggo]

This doesn't account for the possibility that the leader could blow the question and lose everything but the underdog could double their money and potentially win.

Cliff Clavin on Jeopardy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=botdmsQilnU

 

[UglyCasanova]

The kids did not show strategy this tournament which resulted in everyone getting $0 the other day. If you don't know the answer at all, don't bet all your money!!

 

[BUTCH1]

In the original Jeopardy show one could buzz at ANY time, if you felt the category was a strong one for you a contestant was allowed to buzz as soon as the question appeared, the rules change turned off a lot of the old-time watchers..

 

[DrPizza]

That is true, but if you control the board and have a big lead and the other two may catch up, then pick the middle values (better chance of hitting a daily double) just to reduce the chances of the other two catching up. A few weeks back, a guy with a big lead actively sought the daily doubles and when he hit it, he bet 100 just to get rid of it so the other two cannot possibly have a higher chance of catching up.

My point is that there IS some sort of strategy to the betting and daily doubles, yet most players start from top to bottom, playing like the other two players aren't there.

You do realize that the person picking the next question is the person who got the previous question correct, right? Duhhhh, if you're doing better than your opponents in a particular category, WHY would you switch to a different category??