Contagion spreading among the vaccinated

[Zorba]

Lowest common denominator.
Its a thing.

Especially in the US

 

[dank69]

How about the destruction of our social fabric, only to have the same number of infections in the end ANYWAY.

Wow, that sounds super sciency.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

And Osterholm says we're going to be at 200,000 new cases a day by the middle of August like we were Thanksgiving to Inauguration Day. Fucking Trumptard antivaxxers ruining our ability to safely eat in restaurants, go to the movies, go see a basketball game, etc.

https://news.yahoo.com/virus-expert-warns-major-crisis-124426847.html

 

[eikelbijter]

Your claim isn’t exactly backed by science either.
Even at 39% effective it prevents infects at minimum 1/3rd the time for the cost of one or two non sequential days of discomfort.
Gotta be a selfish mother fucker if you can’t deal with that.

What claim is that? Serious question. And name calling? Really?

 

[Zorba]

How about the destruction of our social fabric, only to have the same number of infections in the end ANYWAY.

You do understand treatment is a finite resource right? And once that treatment runs out, things get much worse?

You are also presenting a false dilemna since everyone over 12 could go get vaccinated today and put this to an end.

 

[vi edit]

Not a fan of a vaccine passport app tho, if it came to that I would likely just wear a mask everywhere. I don’t like the idea of a vaccine passport. Not that I am afraid of my vaccination status being public because imo it should be for all particularly doctors and politicians and media personalities. I don’t like what other data a vaccine passport is bound to collect and who has access to that data.

I don't really know how to settle that fear but really, it's not realistic. I helped implement vaccination clinics. Most mass vaccination sites are using some form of EMR (Epic, Cerner, ect) to register and manage vaccinations. When you get vaccinated you get a paper slip which is the feel good vaccination record people post on facebook. The real vaccination record is all done through interfaces between the EMR's and county/state health organizations. That data is already in some level of government database. All you need is an app and an authentication system to verify you holding the phone is the person with a record at the state/county level. States/counties can pretty easily aggregate this up to a federal level. The fear of tracking and whatnot is just unfounded and frankly harmful.

For years people have worn arm bands or bracelets designating different allergies to penicillin or other medications. I never *ONCE* heard screams of HIPAA about that. This isn't any different. It's a matter of public health and if we actually want to move forward we need to get our shit together and organize this. Completely shut out anyone that hasn't been vaccinated and make their lives as miserable as possible until they do. This is why we can't have nice things. You want nice things, act like a fucking adult.

 

[Meghan54]

One more thing: watch the video below and see Osterholm, arguably one of the premier experts on the subject explain that any mask OTHER than an N95 is useless.

He’s wrong. Not going to watch some rando utube crap but the reason is this…while the actual virus can easily move through a mask that’s not N95 cert’d, the actual virus moves through the air very poorly when considering just the virus. It’s so small it doesn’t catch the air currents and move very far.

But the virus almost is never found in a naked, isolated state. What it is found with almost always is combined with water vapor (it’s a respiratory virus, so attaching to water vapor in the lungs/nose/throat is what it does) which gives the virus much greater mobility and, due to its larger, combined size masks, even non-N95 masks are fairly effective.

 

[eikelbijter]

You do understand treatment is a finite resource right? And once that treatment runs out, things get much worse?

You are also presenting a false dilemna since everyone over 12 could go get vaccinated today and put this to an end.

Except it would NOT put it to an end considering how YOU guys are looking at it. Those who cannot get vaccinated for whatever reason will STILL be vulnerable because even if we vaccinate everyone over 12 that CAN the virus would NOT go away.

In my opinion we need to get over it, in the US at least. Probably 65% of Americans have been infected, MANY are vaccinated, again one more time INCLUDING some of my best friends who I recommended should get it; by and large this will not be a problem for the healthcare system anymore in most of the US.

Here in Los Angeles we were already at 65% or more in early April. We're getting a spike in cases, but I'll be so bold as to suggest that we will NOT be seeing a big spike in deaths or hospitalizations.

At the same time, we will FOREVER see cases and even some casualties from Corona in one variant or another, vaccines or not. To suggest that the reason it's not over yet is the unvaccinated is ludicrous and unscientific.

 

[fskimospy]

First of all, exactly what conclusion am I making? Just read back my post and all I'm saying is that vaccines will NOT stop transmission, at best slow it down. What if the fact that Israel is an outlier is due to the fact that they had super low infection rates compared to let's say the UK?

As we go forward, the effectiveness of the vaccines to protect against infection and re-transmission will only go down. The idea that these vaccines will keep the virus from propagating are in my well-informed opinion and pipe dream. The problem with anything that grows exponentially is that "slowing it down" a little will no result in a lower number of total infected, it'll just take a little longer. At this point anyone who WANT the vaccine in the US had more than enough opportunity to have gotten it. The rest have either HAD Covid already or WILL get it.

R

I think your conclusion that the vaccines cannot stop transmission is not warranted based on the data. If a vaccine is 90% effective at preventing infection that’s probably enough to effectively halt transmission.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Now, all of that said, before you guys start piling on and calling me an anti-vaxxer, I have recommended to MULTIPLE dear friends that they GET the vaccine. It's HIGHLY effective at preventing serious illness and almost 100% at preventing death from Covid 19. I was taught the scientific method at one of the best universities in the world, I believe in science and have had ENDLESS discussions with anti-vaxxers over the past years defending it.

Any particular reason you are avoiding the vaccine yourself?

 

[eikelbijter]

He’s wrong. Not going to watch some rando utube crap but the reason is this…while the actual virus can easily move through a mask that’s not N95 cert’d, the actual virus moves through the air very poorly when considering just the virus. It’s so small it doesn’t catch the air currents and move very far.

But the virus almost is never found in a naked, isolated state. What it is found with almost always is combined with water vapor (it’s a respiratory virus, so attaching to water vapor in the lungs/nose/throat is what it does) which gives the virus much greater mobility and, due to its larger, combined size masks, even non-N95 masks are fairly effective.

I haven't read a better example of wishful thinking than this post right here. "Some random utube crap"? Are u kidding me? This is Osterholm, a TOP expert, on NBC, not exactly your typical fake news site is it? He's saying what he said in March LAST YEAR.

If you'd be smart, you WOULD watch it and learn that this virus moves in aerosols... why am I even trying.....

Funny though that someone would have the nerve to pretend to know more on some forum.... we are doomed...

 

[Leeea]

read this thread:

Trump supporting average Republican anti-vax protester punches breast cancer patient in front of cancer clinic and rips off her mask.

Just another day in the flat earth, anti-vax Republican party: Average GQP regular doubles down and accuses cancer patient of being "crisis actor."...

forums.anandtech.com

and tell me if your getting a bit angry?

I know I am.

 

[vi edit]

Except it would NOT put it to an end considering how YOU guys are looking at it. Those who cannot get vaccinated for whatever reason will STILL be vulnerable because even if we vaccinate everyone over 12 that CAN the virus would NOT go away.

In my opinion we need to get over it, in the US at least. Probably 65% of Americans have been infected, MANY are vaccinated, again one more time INCLUDING some of my best friends who I recommended should get it; by and large this will not be a problem for the healthcare system anymore in most of the US.

Here in Los Angeles we were already at 65% or more in early April. We're getting a spike in cases, but I'll be so bold as to suggest that we will NOT be seeing a big spike in deaths or hospitalizations.

At the same time, we will FOREVER see cases and even some casualties from Corona in one variant or another, vaccines or not. To suggest that the reason it's not over yet is the unvaccinated is ludicrous and unscientific.

You just logic twisted yourself. Hospitalization rates *are* down in places with high vaccination rates. That is true. What isn't down is hospitalization rates in areas with poor vaccination rates. What is happening is low vaccination rates are allowing it to continue propagating and become more resilient. States went into yolo open mode *FAR* too early when their vaccination rates were far too low. It let it creep back up. Left unchecked it's just going to get better at infecting and inflicting harm on those that are vaccinated while thoroughly trouncing those that aren't. It really is being fueled by low vaccination efforts and shitty policy.

 

[fskimospy]

I haven't read a better example of wishful thinking than this post right here. "Some random utube crap"? Are u kidding me? This is Osterholm, a TOP expert, on NBC, not exactly your typical fake news site is it? He's saying what he said in March LAST YEAR.

If you'd be smart, you WOULD watch it and learn that this virus moves in aerosols... why am I even trying.....

Funny though that someone would have the nerve to pretend to know more on some forum.... we are doomed...

Maybe take a minute and take a few deep breaths. I don’t think you’re looking at this objectively.

 

[eikelbijter]

I think your conclusion that the vaccines cannot stop transmission is not warranted based on the data. If a vaccine is 90% effective at preventing infection that’s probably enough to effectively halt transmission.

"Effectively halt"? You need to go back to school my friend. Exponential growth that's slowed by 90% will STILL get to 100%, just a little later, which is EXACTLY my point.

Herd immunity past ALL future variants is not feasible with a virus that mutates as much as a Corona or Influenza for that matter.

Again, one last time, I'm NOT an anti-vaxxer. These vaccines are a miracle. They have saved many lives, especially in places with low natural infection rates.

 

[nakedfrog]

Except it would NOT put it to an end considering how YOU guys are looking at it. Those who cannot get vaccinated for whatever reason will STILL be vulnerable because even if we vaccinate everyone over 12 that CAN the virus would NOT go away.

In my opinion we need to get over it, in the US at least. Probably 65% of Americans have been infected, MANY are vaccinated, again one more time INCLUDING some of my best friends who I recommended should get it; by and large this will not be a problem for the healthcare system anymore in most of the US.

Here in Los Angeles we were already at 65% or more in early April. We're getting a spike in cases, but I'll be so bold as to suggest that we will NOT be seeing a big spike in deaths or hospitalizations.

At the same time, we will FOREVER see cases and even some casualties from Corona in one variant or another, vaccines or not. To suggest that the reason it's not over yet is the unvaccinated is ludicrous and unscientific.

What exactly the hell are you saying? Don't bother getting vaccinated because Covid is here to stay regardless?
I thought the idea here was to prevent people from dying?

 

[eikelbijter]

You just logic twisted yourself. Hospitalization rates *are* down in places with high vaccination rates. That is true. What isn't down is hospitalization rates in areas with poor vaccination rates. What is happening is low vaccination rates are allowing it to continue propagating and become more resilient. States went into yolo open mode *FAR* too early when their vaccination rates were far too low. It let it creep back up. Left unchecked it's just going to get better at infecting and inflicting harm on those that are vaccinated while thoroughly trouncing those that aren't. It really is being fueled by low vaccination efforts and shitty policy.

I never said otherwise. Especially in the US there are still a fair number of people who will die, but much fewer than at the worst points before, and with Delta being 3 times as infectious as the original strain, this will happen quickly. There might be some counties where there are MANY older or weaker people that are naive and haven't been vaccinated, and there will be some substantial numbers, but by and large most in those categories are protected by infection or vaccine.

In places like LA it's time to cut it out and open up fully. I would put money on the prediction that we will not be getting another surge that puts a problematic strain on our medical system.

 

[Meghan54]

I haven't read a better example of wishful thinking than this post right here. "Some random utube crap"? Are u kidding me? This is Osterholm, a TOP expert, on NBC, not exactly your typical fake news site is it? He's saying what he said in March LAST YEAR.

If you'd be smart, you WOULD watch it and learn that this virus moves in aerosols... why am I even trying.....

Funny though that someone would have the nerve to pretend to know more on some forum.... we are doomed...

Well, as I only spent a few decades in health care, I have something of a clue. Those aerosols include the water vapor from our mucus membranes…which is where the virus resides within a human.

Breathing, coughing, yelling, singing…all spread the virus. But the virus certainly doesn’t reside within us without combining with water vapor. It depends upon the water it sticks to to get out of your lungs. True, after a bit, the water will evaporate and the virus will float, but a mask WILL prevent a lot of the aerosol transmission. Just fact.

 

[eikelbijter]

What exactly the hell are you saying? Don't bother getting vaccinated because Covid is here to stay regardless?
I thought the idea here was to prevent people from dying?

You need to work on your reading skills buddy! I've said in MULTIPLE posts that I've recommended MULTIPLE dear friends to get vaccinated.

Why don't you come back at me when you've actually read what I wrote.

 

[eikelbijter]

Maybe take a minute and take a few deep breaths. I don’t think you’re looking at this objectively.

I think I'm one of the few people left in this damn world that ARE looking at this objectively, not as a Trumptard anti-vaxxer OR a Libtard sheep.

But if THAT'S your best comeback, I don't think I need to say anything else.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

What claim is that? Serious question. And name calling? Really?

You post right here made the claim and yes for someone to avoid vaccination even with a one in three protection level Is a selfish mother fucker.

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[eikelbijter]

Well, as I only spent a few decades in health care, I have something of a clue. Those aerosols include the water vapor from our mucus membranes…which is where the virus resides within a human.

Breathing, coughing, yelling, singing…all spread the virus. But the virus certainly doesn’t reside within us without combining with water vapor. It depends upon the water it sticks to to get out of your lungs. True, after a bit, the water will evaporate and the virus will float, but a mask WILL prevent a lot of the aerosol transmission. Just fact.

So you're more knowledgeable than Osterholm?

From wikipedia:
"Michael Thomas Osterholm is an American epidemiologist, Regents Professor, and Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. On November 9 he was named a member of President-elect Joe Biden's COVID-19 Advisory Board. "

May I ask in which capacity you worked "decades" "in health care"?

 

[eikelbijter]

You post right here made the claim and yes for someone to avoid vaccination even with a one in three protection level Is a selfish mother fucker.

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forums.anandtech.com

Again, what exactly do you think my claim is?

I have to say, I expected a more intelligent discussion from a forum with as many folks of, what I assumed was, above-average intelligence.

It's funny how all y'all are SO quick to call anti-vaxxers stupid, when none of you can make an even marginal argument for YOUR flavor of Kool Aid.

 

[fskimospy]

"Effectively halt"? You need to go back to school my friend. Exponential growth that's slowed by 90% will STILL get to 100%, just a little later, which is EXACTLY my point.

Uhmmm, one of us needs to go back to school and it’s not me. That is not how this works. When you have high levels of highly effective immunity it means outbreaks become fewer and farther between and when they do occur they are unable to spread widely.

Measles is an excellent example of this. It’s highly infectious yet very few people in the US get it. Why? Vaccines are highly effective at preventing infection and they are widespread.

Do you see now why you were wrong? I just gave you a real world example.

Herd immunity past ALL future variants is not feasible with a virus that mutates as much as a Corona or Influenza for that matter.

Again, one last time, I'm NOT an anti-vaxxer. These vaccines are a miracle. They have saved many lives, especially in places with low natural infection rates.

I have never claimed you’re an anti-vaxxer, just that you’re misinterpreting the data. We don’t know what’s possible at this time.

 

[IronWing]

Sheep AND Kool Aid, oh my. <plonk>