Gordon Pennycook: “It might be one of the biggest false consensus effects that’s been observed.”…
arstechnica.com
Interesting article on why people believe conspiracies. (Spoiler alert for many it’s excessive overconfidence)
Very interesting article (though I ran out of energy to read it carefully, part-way through, bookmarked for later - it also in turn links to other interesting bits of research, so still more homework).
For some reason I always get a strong desire to poke holes in anything 'social psychology' related [edit - I mean, as I understand it, the field as a whole does not have a particularly good track record for reproducible results]. I'm distrustful of the entire field. But on the other hand, maybe that impulse of mine is closely related to the very traits they are talking about?
On first scan-reading, the 'overconfidence' referred to seems to be not so much the believer's overconfidence in their own reasoning powers, but overconfidence in the sense that they grossly overestimate how many others believe the same as they do.
That seems, to me, related to how often people - perhaps particularly in this Age of Popularism - seem to believe they are in touch with some supposed overwhelming majority of 'ordinary people', and thus are speaking as representatives of some supposed 'silent majority' against a minority, elite, view. Often, these days, it seems that people with diametrically-opposing views seem to be equally convinced of that.