Console sales declining? Market saturation reached?

[Bateluer]

http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/18/videogame-hardware-and-software-sales-declining-time-to-roll-ou/

There was a time when you couldn't go three years without having to shell out $300 for the latest and greatest videogame console, something with mind-blowing graphics and slight refreshes of the games you'd already bought twice before. Those days are past, with the Xbox 360 over five years old and the PlayStation 3 four, yet neither having any replacements in the wings. Perhaps this is partly why videogame hardware sales are declining, down eight percent in January compared to this time last year according to NPD. Software sales are meanwhile down five percent and we're hearing reports that Mario is falling behind on payments for his Mediterranean villa. Maybe it's'a time to downsize, big guy.

Given the length of time the PS3/Xbox360 have been on the market, and since we've got no strong information about their replacements, I'm going to say market saturation. Nearly everyone who wants one, already has one. So sales of the consoles themselves will continue to decline. Even with high profile titles released, the spikes in console sales will be short lived and temporary.

 

[BoberFett]

Market saturation is to price as humidity is to temperature. At the current price there may be saturation. A price drop might entice another whole segment to purchase. I don't think we're yet at the lowest price we'll see prior to the next generation.

 

[Queasy]

Yeah we are approaching saturation at current prices. There will be price drops in the next couple of months and sales will pick back up.

 

[zerocool84]

Yeah we are approaching saturation at current prices. There will be price drops in the next couple of months and sales will pick back up.

Yup look at home much PS2 sold. They just need to drop the prices down and they'll jump back up in sales.

 

[Sephire]

LOL those consoles are just getting started.

 

[Drako]

Yeah we are approaching saturation at current prices. There will be price drops in the next couple of months and sales will pick back up.

I'm waiting for the PS3 to drop so I can replace my old 60G model. I'll be damned if I'm going to get it repaired again. Hopefully it won't go belly up before a price drop .

 

[KlokWyze]

I'm waiting for the PS3 to drop so I can replace my old 60G model. I'll be damned if I'm going to get it repaired again. Hopefully it won't go belly up before a price drop .

Funny that this is such a legitimate concern with both the PS3 and 360. It really shows that the consoles being unreliable pieces of shit actually leads to more sales. :hmm:

 

[trmiv]

I want a PS3, but I'm waiting for the price to drop.

 

[Drako]

Funny that this is such a legitimate concern with both the PS3 and 360. It really shows that the consoles being unreliable pieces of shit actually leads to more sales. :hmm:

Not really a concern to me per se, since consoles are so cheap now these days as they are. My complaint with Sony is that they charge $150 just to repair a bad BD device, so it's almost cheaper to buy a new console.

 

[herkulease]

that's how it was for me when then ps2 had laser issues. I just bought new ps2s rather than repair my old one that didn't work.

 

[RavenSEAL]

Wanna hear saturation? The DS has sold like 150m units.

 

[Duder1no]

Market saturation is to price as humidity is to temperature. At the current price there may be saturation. A price drop might entice another whole segment to purchase.

exactly

a price drop should no doubt guarantee an increase in console sales

 

[gorcorps]

Not only is the market saturated, but all those RROD fixes must have actually worked if sales have slowed =P

 

[crisium]

$199 is the sweat spot. Once a full featured 360 and PS3 hit that mark (and the Wii will be $149 by then) we'll see bigger sales.

 

[trmiv]

$199 is the sweat spot. Once a full featured 360 and PS3 hit that mark (and the Wii will be $149 by then) we'll see bigger sales.

That's what I'm waiting for on the PS3. I may go as high as $249. I already have a Wii and Xbox 360, so I'll wait until it hits a price I'm happy with.

 

[nageov3t]

$199 is the sweat spot. Once a full featured 360 and PS3 hit that mark (and the Wii will be $149 by then) we'll see bigger sales.

yup.

at that price, I'd consider buying a second just to have a system in the living room and a system in the bedroom.

 

[Anteaus]

Yup look at home much PS2 sold. They just need to drop the prices down and they'll jump back up in sales.

Just wanted to add, the PS2 is to game consoles what Wow is to MMOs. The fact that the PS2 sold so many units is anomalous when compared to the various consoles release before and since. The PS2 sold 150 million units, compared to the next highest of 102.5 by the PS1. Before that the NES sold 61.91. The PS3 and 360 are each floating at around 50 million and have already been out for 5-6 years.

I think the decline is normal as always happens, since console gaming is cyclical. As consoles get older and there tech ages, average Joe starts thinking about how a new console will be coming relatively soon and doesn't want to buy something that will just be replaced. This is why prices drop. Console developers have to do that to keep the value up, but its a losing battle in the long run.

There is usually growth in PC gaming around this time also due PC hardware continually getting better whereas consoles stagnate. Once the next Xbox, Wii, and/or PS4 comes out then the cycle will start over.

 

[wuliheron]

It's not just consoles, but console games as well. Only a handful are really raking in the dough and indie games are stealing away customers. That means consoles will have to reinvent themselves and put out the next generation that much sooner.

Can you say quad core Dx 11!

 

[BoberFett]

Just wanted to add, the PS2 is to game consoles what Wow is to MMOs. The fact that the PS2 sold so many units is anomalous when compared to the various consoles release before and since. The PS2 sold 150 million units, compared to the next highest of 102.5 by the PS1. Before that the NES sold 61.91. The PS3 and 360 are each floating at around 50 million and have already been out for 5-6 years.

I think the decline is normal as always happens, since console gaming is cyclical. As consoles get older and there tech ages, average Joe starts thinking about how a new console will be coming relatively soon and doesn't want to buy something that will just be replaced. This is why prices drop. Console developers have to do that to keep the value up, but its a losing battle in the long run.

There is usually growth in PC gaming around this time also due PC hardware continually getting better whereas consoles stagnate. Once the next Xbox, Wii, and/or PS4 comes out then the cycle will start over.

Nonsense. From what I can find online, here's the price history of the PS2 and how many units had sold until that point.

10/26/2000 US$299.99 LAUNCH

05/14/2002 US$199.99 30 Million

05/13/2003 US$179.99 50 Million

05/11/2004 US$149.99 70 Million

04/20/2006 US$129.99 100 Million

The PS3 is only now at the price that PS2 started at, meaning two-thirds again as many people were willing to pay $300 for the PS3 than they were the PS2. One out of every three PS2s in existence was sold after it hit $129. So they sold 30M at the launch price, 20M after a price drop, another 20M after another price drop, 30M after yet another price drop, and finally 50M when it hit it's low price. I see it's at $99 now, don't know when that happened and what sales were at that point.

But to suggest that 50M and $300 is the end of the line for this generation is foolish. If Sony dropped the PS3 to $129 they'd sell 100M of them as well.

 

[BoberFett]

It's not just consoles, but console games as well. Only a handful are really raking in the dough and indie games are stealing away customers. That means consoles will have to reinvent themselves and put out the next generation that much sooner.

Can you say quad core Dx 11!

Also false. It's true that the AAA titles have a huge market share, but indie games aren't stealing anything.

 

[Anteaus]

Nonsense. From what I can find online, here's the price history of the PS2 and how many units had sold until that point.

10/26/2000 US$299.99 LAUNCH

05/14/2002 US$199.99 30 Million

05/13/2003 US$179.99 50 Million

05/11/2004 US$149.99 70 Million

04/20/2006 US$129.99 100 Million

The PS3 is only now at the price that PS2 started at, meaning two-thirds again as many people were willing to pay $300 for the PS3 than they were the PS2. One out of every three PS2s in existence was sold after it hit $129. So they sold 30M at the launch price, 20M after a price drop, another 20M after another price drop, 30M after yet another price drop, and finally 50M when it hit it's low price. I see it's at $99 now, don't know when that happened and what sales were at that point.

But to suggest that 50M and $300 is the end of the line for this generation is foolish. If Sony dropped the PS3 to $129 they'd sell 100M of them as well.

At the same period in their service life, the PS3 has sold half of what the PS2 did. Also, the PS2 was still outselling the PS3 when it was release. I wasn't saying that 50M was the end of the line for this generation. What I am saying is the PS3 has had a relatively average service life in regards to popularity and as such will continue to display this trend. The idea that Sony is going to get over 10 years of strong sales with the PS3 as they did with the PS2 is just way too optimistic. Also, the PS2 had the original Xbox (24M units sold till it was pulled)to compete with, which wasn't near as successful as the 360. Saturation or not, strong competition will limit total sales no more how you slice it.

As it is now, the PS3 is having a tough time with PR. Personally, I think once the PS4 is announced in the next year or two you'll find the PS3 will be much less hesitant to disappear than did the PS2. You're free to disagree, but the numbers don't lie. Even if Sony sold double the number of PS3s that are currently in circulation now, they will still be short of the PS2 record by around a third.

They won't do in 2-3 years what it took them 5 years to do when enthusiasm was high, and the lawsuits aren't helping them any. In my opinion the PS3 will be hard pressed to break 100M, but I don't have anything to support that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles

 

[zerocool84]

At the same period in their service life, the PS3 has sold half of what the PS2 did. Also, the PS2 was still outselling the PS3 when it was release. I wasn't saying that 50M was the end of the line for this generation. What I am saying is the PS3 has had a relatively average service life in regards to popularity and as such will continue to display this trend. The idea that Sony is going to get over 10 years of strong sales with the PS3 as they did with the PS2 is just way too optimistic. Also, the PS2 had the original Xbox (24M units sold till it was pulled)to compete with, which wasn't near as successful as the 360. Saturation or not, strong competition will limit total sales no more how you slice it.

As it is now, the PS3 is having a tough time with PR. Personally, I think once the PS4 is announced in the next year or two you'll find the PS3 will be much less hesitant to disappear than did the PS2. You're free to disagree, but the numbers don't lie. Even if Sony sold double the number of PS3s that are currently in circulation now, they will still be short of the PS2 record by around a third.

They won't do in 2-3 years what it took them 5 years to do when enthusiasm was high, and the lawsuits aren't helping them any. In my opinion the PS3 will be hard pressed to break 100M, but I don't have anything to support that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles

Yea you hit the nail on the head fairly well seeing as how bigger competition is this generation compared to last for the Playstation (Wii/360). Last generation PS2 was the undisputed king. Plus the big economic downturn hurt sales of everything as well.

 

[magomago]

drop the price of the ps3 and i will probably buy one for myself. it isn't a cost of being able to afford it or not, I just want it cheaper lol. its been around long enough that i don't want to pay 300 for it.

I hope the generation lasts a little longer than usual (ie: not total period of support, I'm talking about how long this generation remeains the flagship generation).

besides it makes sense the ps3 isn't as successful - even if sony executed things perfectly, i doubt they expected the wii which blind sided everything... on top of it, microsoft pushed back so hard that even a perfectly managing the ps3 in terms of price and game titles would probably result in microsoft and sony competing for each inch possible

 

[wuliheron]

Also false. It's true that the AAA titles have a huge market share, but indie games aren't stealing anything.

It's not me saying that, but the developers themselves. If only a handful of the best AAA console game rake in the big bucks, while cheap to develop indie games like Angry Birds make a killing it encourages investors to look elsewhere.

 

[tk149]

I'm sure that declining sales have nothing to do with the high unemployment rate and foreclosure rates.