Congrats DOW!

[JMapleton]

Originally posted by: Blieb

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: JMapleton

Originally posted by: boomerang
A year from now, maybe two, or five, these will be the good old days.

Not even the Great Depression was that bad or lasted that long. 5 years from now we'll be in a bull market with the Dow over 10k again.

Its not going to happen that quick. Its probably not even going to hit its bottom for couple years and the climb from there will be very low and slow imo.

If we continue at this pace ... when we "hit bottom" ... we'll be at 0 ...

See post above, perfect example.

Random and blind pessimistic is pointless and only an attempt for one to look intelligent.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: Blieb

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: JMapleton

Originally posted by: boomerang
A year from now, maybe two, or five, these will be the good old days.

Not even the Great Depression was that bad or lasted that long. 5 years from now we'll be in a bull market with the Dow over 10k again.

Its not going to happen that quick. Its probably not even going to hit its bottom for couple years and the climb from there will be very low and slow imo.

If we continue at this pace ... when we "hit bottom" ... we'll be at 0 ...

It will decelerate, and it already has been since the selloff started, and the last part down and the first part up will be very slow.

 

[Blieb]

Originally posted by: JMapleton

Originally posted by: Blieb

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: JMapleton

Originally posted by: boomerang
A year from now, maybe two, or five, these will be the good old days.

Not even the Great Depression was that bad or lasted that long. 5 years from now we'll be in a bull market with the Dow over 10k again.

Its not going to happen that quick. Its probably not even going to hit its bottom for couple years and the climb from there will be very low and slow imo.

If we continue at this pace ... when we "hit bottom" ... we'll be at 0 ...

See post above, perfect example.

Random and blind pessimistic is pointless and only an attempt for one to look intelligent.

Hey jerkoff:

1) I didn't "make a prediction" or quote some site/document/trend/period ... so I wasn't trying to look intelligent.

2) It was a comment in response to their jibber jabber back and forth. Nobody knwos shit at this point and if you say otherwise, you are guessing like everybody else. "Support at x! support at x-100? support at x-1000? support at x-2000?" ... we're all catching the same falling knife ...

3) Meanwhile, I'm just praying that the gobs of money that I automatically put in retirement accounts keeps my bills paid when I retire.

But hey, thanks for playing.

 

[Blieb]

Originally posted by: jjsole
It will decelerate, and it already has been since the selloff started, and the last part down and the first part up will be very slow.

I was being dramatic

 

[boomerang]

Originally posted by: JMapleton

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: JMapleton

Originally posted by: boomerang
A year from now, maybe two, or five, these will be the good old days.

Not even the Great Depression was that bad or lasted that long. 5 years from now we'll be in a bull market with the Dow over 10k again.

Its not going to happen that quick. Its probably not even going to hit its bottom for couple years and the climb from there will be very low and slow imo.

I like how people have opinions with no basis or qualification. They can just "feel it" or take the high route and pessimisticly guess.

Oh, I didn't realize I was dealing with a super genius. All I've seen from you so far is one liners belittling others. In case you haven't noticed, your comment "Not even the Great Depression was that bad or lasted that long. 5 years from now we'll be in a bull market with the Dow over 10k again." has as much basis and qualification as mine. All you're doing is making a prediction.

History tells us that mine is closer to the truth. I subscribe to the theory that the Great Depression didn't end until 1940 with the run up to our involvement in WWII. As a side note, think about the implications of that one.

My opinion doesn't agree with you, so you jump up on your high horse and start swinging your sword around. I just made a comment, you're making an ass of yourself.

 

[JMapleton]

Originally posted by: Blieb
Hey jerkoff:

1) I didn't "make a prediction" or quote some site/document/trend/period ... so I wasn't trying to look intelligent.

2) It was a comment in response to their jibber jabber back and forth. Nobody knwos shit at this point and if you say otherwise, you are guessing like everybody else. "Support at x! support at x-100? support at x-1000? support at x-2000?" ... we're all catching the same falling knife ...

3) Meanwhile, I'm just praying that the gobs of money that I automatically put in retirement accounts keeps my bills paid when I retire.

But hey, thanks for playing.

I become a bit bitter are people who post such blindly pessimistic nonsense. THey are usually the ones that keep the recessions and depressions alive by baseless fear.

If people knew that times like this are the best time to buy stocks and invest, recessions would end much sooner. I went to the mall the other day on a sunday and hardly no one was there, it's usually packed. Meanwhile the unemployment in my state is still less than 5 percent, the 3 rd lowest in the nation. Yeah, thanks for prolonging this recession you scared lemmings.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: JMapleton

Originally posted by: Blieb
Hey jerkoff:

1) I didn't "make a prediction" or quote some site/document/trend/period ... so I wasn't trying to look intelligent.

2) It was a comment in response to their jibber jabber back and forth. Nobody knwos shit at this point and if you say otherwise, you are guessing like everybody else. "Support at x! support at x-100? support at x-1000? support at x-2000?" ... we're all catching the same falling knife ...

3) Meanwhile, I'm just praying that the gobs of money that I automatically put in retirement accounts keeps my bills paid when I retire.

But hey, thanks for playing.

I become a bit bitter are people who post such blindly pessimistic nonsense. THey are usually the ones that keep the recessions and depressions alive by baseless fear.

If people knew that times like this are the best time to buy stocks and invest, recessions would end much sooner. I went to the mall the other day on a sunday and hardly no one was there, it's usually packed. Meanwhile the unemployment in my state is still less than 5 percent, the 3 rd lowest in the nation. Yeah, thanks for prolonging this recession you scared lemmings.

When bubbles burst, the market reacts differently than when it just crashes and bounces. After the tech bubble cracked in 2000, the tech-laden nasdaq didn't bottom until late 2003. The current issues are far deeper and more widespread than the tech bubble tho.

My opinions have nothing to do with fear or pessimism but from perceived understandings I have from watching market movement and dynamics since '86. I'll be happy to be completely wrong tho. There will be intermediate peaks and valleys, but this type of selloff isn't a black monday type of panic, its a foundational depreciation that started in the markets in late 2007. But hey, if I'm wrong, the beer is on me. :beer:

So sorry we pessimists haven't reversed the recession sooner by going to the mall more often. You probably wouldn't want to hang out with us anyways.

 

[darkxshade]

Sometimes I think market movements isn't about fundamentals as much as it's about psychology. Everyone, especially those who do not have a finance background in the stock market subscribe to the fear and buy into the hype. And when everyone tells each other that the sky is falling, they tend to follow the herd instead of doing the research themselves. That's why the markets move the way they do, one day the dow drops 600 pts, the next day it pops 400. Everything that happens is an over-reaction. I blame the media.

 

[dullard]

I've officially gotten in again today ($3000 traditional IRA, $2000 Roth IRA, $1000 private investment). My buy point was S&P 750, with the S&P at 718, I couldn't resist any more. Of course, since most of this is in a retirement account, I get the end-of-the-day price, and this drop could vanish by then.

Sure, I think it could drop more (6000 DJIA and lower 600s S&P is my current bottom estimate). But I just wanted to get my 2008 IRA all taken care of, my taxes in, etc. I may look back and think I was stupid for buying now, but i'm a heck of a lot better than if I bought this time last year.

Now to decide if I should fund my 2009 IRA soon, or should I wait. I can't fund it fully right now, so I'll likely wait a bit.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: darkxshade
Sometimes I think market movements isn't about fundamentals as much as it's about psychology. Everyone, especially those who do not have a finance background in the stock market subscribe to the fear and buy into the hype. And when everyone tells each other that the sky is falling, they tend to follow the herd instead of doing the research themselves. That's why the markets move the way they do, one day the dow drops 600 pts, the next day it pops 400. Everything that happens is an over-reaction. I blame the media.

Much of that is simply human nature. Buying begets buyers, and selling begets sellers. One problem with the market now imo is that there isn't a huge panic to help create an oversold bottom. There is a lot of pessimism and shock but not a lot of fear imo. I'd love to see a bottom as much as anyone, but over the long run just don't see it here.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: boomerang
A year from now, maybe two, or five, these will be the good old days.

Like stock market or in general? I'm inclined to agree that the storm is not yet here and things will continue to sour.

The stock market, who knows. I think people don't like being reminded that the Nikkei is now worth 1/5th what it was 20 years ago. And why? Well, aren't there some comparisons to be made with how the US is treating this vs what Japan did with their problems? Yes there is. I am starting to question the long-term (like out 1-2 decades) relevance of the stock market as a lay person's means to accumulating additional wealth, at least to the degree we've all been led to believe to date (like historic 9% growth or whatever).

Random and blind pessimistic is pointless and only an attempt for one to look intelligent.

I agree, but also random and blind optimism is also pointless.

THey are usually the ones that keep the recessions and depressions alive by baseless fear.

While true, the opposite psychology is also what brings bubbles so huge and the economy so overinflated as well, isn't it? Reckless optimism and greed and this followed by reckless fear.

ut this type of selloff isn't a black monday type of panic, its a foundational depreciation

I agree. I have no formal training and have only been watching this with increased interested for a year or two, but the more I read about what's happening and the history of other such situations the less it seems like this is currently an over-correction. Stocks are not cheap right now. They are certainly way less overpriced than they were, however. This is not going to be a quick recovery to 14k by any stretch of the imagination.

darkxshade is right, but it's always been about psychology. Psychology is why the market got up to 14k with no fundamental basis, and a grossly inflated across-the-market P/E. And it's also why now it is shattering itself.

 

[zebano]

hmmm when it hits 6000 I'm giong to start buying.

 

[darkxshade]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

darkxshade is right, but it's always been about psychology. Psychology is why the market got up to 14k with no fundamental basis, and a grossly inflated across-the-market P/E. And it's also why now it is shattering itself.

Not always, imo fundamentals eventually overtakes the aspect of psychology. It's through fundamentals that people initially realize a market is overbought or oversold and is the catalyst for the beginning of a recession/recovery. It's the psychology that creates the overbought/oversold markets.

 

[JMapleton]

Here we go, people scared and prolonging the recession.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...s-in-apf-14509525.html

"The personal savings rate surged to 5 percent, the highest level since 1995 as consumers continued to sock away more of their incomes amid the deepening recession."

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
darkxshade is right, but it's always been about psychology. Psychology is why the market got up to 14k with no fundamental basis, and a grossly inflated across-the-market P/E. And it's also why now it is shattering itself.

No, it's greed that drove it up, and fear that's driving it down.

 

[darkxshade]

Originally posted by: SSSnail

Originally posted by: Skoorb
darkxshade is right, but it's always been about psychology. Psychology is why the market got up to 14k with no fundamental basis, and a grossly inflated across-the-market P/E. And it's also why now it is shattering itself.

No, it's greed that drove it up, and fear that's driving it down.

uh greed & fear is psychological

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: SSSnail

Originally posted by: Skoorb
darkxshade is right, but it's always been about psychology. Psychology is why the market got up to 14k with no fundamental basis, and a grossly inflated across-the-market P/E. And it's also why now it is shattering itself.

No, it's greed that drove it up, and fear that's driving it down.

Another aspect is that there is a huge cash crunch right now around the world that is causing mass liquidations. Its fair to say there's a legitimate domino effect going on.

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: darkxshade

Originally posted by: SSSnail

Originally posted by: Skoorb
darkxshade is right, but it's always been about psychology. Psychology is why the market got up to 14k with no fundamental basis, and a grossly inflated across-the-market P/E. And it's also why now it is shattering itself.

No, it's greed that drove it up, and fear that's driving it down.

uh greed & fear is psychological

Yes, I know. But these are VERY specific into the psychological aspects of the human emotion. There are other aspects of the spectrum, and I'm sure others didn't cause this mess, we all know it's psychological, and I'm agreeing with you. Relax.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: JMapleton
Here we go, people scared and prolonging the recession.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...s-in-apf-14509525.html

"The personal savings rate surged to 5 percent, the highest level since 1995 as consumers continued to sock away more of their incomes amid the deepening recession."

That's called being smart. If you have to pay a mortgage and know that unemployment is quickly rising and you have low savings, you'll start saving money to try and cover any problems.

 

[ultimatebob]

So... do you think that today is going to be the bottom, or is it going to go a few hundred points lower?

Not that it really matters, I guess, since I can't afford to throw more money into the market and watch it sink again. I've already been burnt once when the Dow fell below 8,500 and I thought that it would rebound then. Oops.

 

[JMapleton]

Originally posted by: ultimatebob
So... do you think that today is going to be the bottom, or is it going to go a few hundred points lower?

Not that it really matters, I guess, since I can't afford to throw more money into the market and watch it sink again. I've already been burnt once when the Dow fell below 8,500 and I thought that it would rebound then. Oops.

I think it's irrelevant. You cannot hit the bottom exactly without pure luck. Any buy at these prices are good buys for the long term; load up if you're investing for the long run.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: ultimatebob
So... do you think that today is going to be the bottom, or is it going to go a few hundred points lower?

Not that it really matters, I guess, since I can't afford to throw more money into the market and watch it sink again. I've already been burnt once when the Dow fell below 8,500 and I thought that it would rebound then. Oops.

You won't find a convincing argument for a bottom, the bottom won't be known by almost everybody until it has long-since passed.

 

[Miramonti]

You can load up now, but if you like these prices, you'll really like the ones down the line.

 

[StageLeft]

Any buy at these prices are good buys for the long term; load up if you're investing for the long run.

Based on what? P/E ratios are about historical average now, but that's NOT in the face of the worst recession in decades, which is going to slash at earnings and, with the new found government love for bailing out companies, do God knows what to long-term economic growth.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
That's called being smart. If you have to pay a mortgage and know that unemployment is quickly rising and you have low savings, you'll start saving money to try and cover any problems.

Gradual movement of money into savings is being smart. A sudden and drastic shift into savings for the bulk of society isn't smart. That leads to depreciation and recession (or worse). We all knew that America had to start saving. But, we needed that shift to occur over a time span of a few years, not over just a couple of months.

On a personal level, saving $2000 is smart. Saving $20,000 in hopes that you might become unemployed is not smart. You usually can do better in the long run investing that properly, even if you do lose your job.

Originally posted by: ultimatebob
So... do you think that today is going to be the bottom, or is it going to go a few hundred points lower?

Not that it really matters, I guess, since I can't afford to throw more money into the market and watch it sink again. I've already been burnt once when the Dow fell below 8,500 and I thought that it would rebound then. Oops.

No one really knows, of course. My prediction as stated above is DJIA 6000 and S&P lower 600s as the final bottom. Generally, the rule is not to catch a falling knife. Don't buy at 8500 on the way down, but instead buy at 8500 on the way up. Even if it means nothing to your stock returns, you held onto that money for months more (gaining interest) and you survived a massive stress headache.

I chose to get today in while the knife was falling since I have an April 15, 2009 deadline and since I wanted to get the stress of choosing when to get in off my back. Maybe I missed the true bottom, but I'll never really catch it at the true bottom.