Originally posted by: newmachineoverlord
Originally posted by: DivideBYZero
Originally posted by: Schadenfroh
Originally posted by: j00fek
both
Seriously, we always get this in here. IMHO it's absolutely moronic.
Condoms are 98% effective over a period of one year, which means that the odds of not getting pregnant using condoms for a ten year period are (98/100)^10=81.7%. This means that if you use
condoms alone there is a
19% chance of pregnancy within ten years. Ditto for the pill at 98% effectiveness. When you use both however, the odds of failure in any given year are .02^2= 0.04%
Thus the ten year success rate for using both methods at the same time is (99.96/100)^10=99.6%
Thus using
both at the same time yields a
0.4% chance of pregnancy over ten years, compared to 19% with just one or the other. You are 47.5 times more likely to cause a pregnancy using just one option than you are with both.
Edit: Now that we have the real numbers posted, let's repeat the ten year calculations using those. Perfect use of the
pill is listed at 0.3% failure per year, that gives us
3% failure over ten years. Perfect use of condoms is still 19% failure over ten years. Combine the two and you get a chance of failure in any given year of (2%*.3%)= 0.006%.
That yields a ten year failure rate of 1-0.99994^10=.0006=.06% for both methods at the same time. You are still about fifty times more likely to get pregnant using just the pill as you are with the pill and condoms.
Now let's use the typical use numbers. 15% failure for condoms, 8% for the pill. .85^10=.197 meaning that with condoms alone you only have a 19.7% chance of avoiding pregnancy over ten years. .92^10=43.4% chance of avoiding pregnancy for ten years. Combined method: .15*.08=1.2% chance of pregnancy over one year
(1-.012)^10=88.6% success rate over ten years.
Under typical use, even using the combination of both condoms and the pill still results in an 11.3% chance of pregnancy over a ten year period.