Colonizing Mars

[DietDrThunder]

So I watched on Netflix Mars. 2016 Season 1 - Fact meets fiction in this docudrama of a spacecraft crew as it embarks in 2033 on a mission to colonize the red planet. With the first permanent base established by 2037.

It was an OKay show, but in my opinion, a bit of an unrealistic in its time table. Yes I understand that if we humans become a multi planet species, the chances of humans getting wiped out by a cataclysmic event drops to pretty much zero, but what is the rush? It is not like humankind will start dying off in 14 years. Don't get me wrong, I do think we should start the process, but I think we should do a lot more long range planning of a 200 to 500 year timespan.

Something like the following:
1) Establish a permanent base on the Moon within the next 20 years. It would be set up similar to the Antarctic research stations we currently have. We can learn a lot from the Moon, and if something bad happens, help is only 3 days away vs. Mars at the earliest 8 months away.
2) Within the next 50 years, set up the first Lunar colony. This colony's primary purpose would be for mining and manufacturing. It would be a lot easier to manufacture and launch sections of an assembly station into Lunar orbit. Once built, the mining and manufacturing on the moon would shift to producing spacecraft components, then launch them to the assembly station. This assembly station would build the needed spacecraft to actually travel to Mars, plus supply water for rocket fuel and for consumption by the crews. It would also manufacture all needed components for establishing a permanent base on Phobos and Mars.
3) Within the next 70 years, establish a permanent base on Phobos. Phobos would need to be thoroughly explored for resources. If water and CO2 can be sourced on Phobos, fuel in-situ-resource utilization (ISRU) would be possible there too. With fuel from Phobos less fuel is needed over all because the fuel for Trans Earth Injection (TEI) would not need to be lifted up from Mars. It would enable larger payloads back to earth as well. The crew at the Phobos Station would tele-operating robotic equipment on the Martian surface to construct the permanent base on Mars. People would be able to shuttle between Phobos and the Martian surface to carry out exploration. This would permit more extensive tele-robotic exploration of the Martian surface for resources before deciding where to situate a permanent Mars base. The Phobos Station would initially be completely re-supplied from Earth, while trying to transition to Mars ISRU. Perhaps it could also serve as a springboard for missions to the asteroid belt, including asteroid ISRU.
4) Within the next 100 years establish the first permanent base on Mars. Continue with the exploration and determine the sites for multiple permanent base locations.
5) Within 150 years, establish the first permanent colony on Mars. This first colony would be the proving grounds to see if true colonization without total failure can happen. It is not a short term experiment, and has a goal of being completely self sufficient within 100 years.
6) If Everything works as planned, within the next 250 years, start the construction of follow on colonies.
7) At the 300 year mark, two more Mars colonies would be established, and more would be in development.

My opinion, even this timetable is a bit aggressive, and it probably should be stretched to 400 or 500 years. What is your opinion?

 

[ultimatebob]

Fair warning... season 2 of the Nat Geo version of that show is terrible. It takes a really annoying "companies are ruining the planet" editorial bend, and tries (unsuccessfully, IMO) to tie the story on Mars to that by adding a semi-evil private mining business on the planet.

I'm all for making a Moon base, though. It seems that Kevin Spacey's acting career is dead now, so perhaps we should send him there for real.

 

[ctbaars]

Wasn't this on regular TV, NatGeo?

 

[Thebobo]

Wasn't this on regular TV, NatGeo?

Yes, was pretty good but the style of the show just wasn't for me. As such I have not watched the second season on nat Geographic although I am huge space junkie.

 

[ImpulsE69]

The problem with the 200-500 year plan is that it won't work. Humans don't live nearly that long. Any plans will quickly change/die off as regimes change and world events happen that shift priorities. It doesn't matter how future focused a few people are with good intentions, the bulk of the people have the ultimate question of 'how can I profit from this'. If they don't see any profit, they won't drive it forward. There needs to be some sense of urgency to drive it.

That is why, anything that is going to happen, has to happen in the span of a lifetime. I'm not saying we have to be successful. I'm saying someone has to see it through to completion. Once that happens, even if it is a complete failure, a precedent has been set, and someone else will pick up where it left off trying to fix the mistakes, continue the legacy.

 

[ultimatebob]

The problem with the 200-500 year plan is that it won't work. Humans don't live nearly that long. Any plans will quickly change/die off as regimes change and world events happen that shift priorities. It doesn't matter how future focused a few people are with good intentions, the bulk of the people have the ultimate question of 'how can I profit from this'. If they don't see any profit, they won't drive it forward. There needs to be some sense of urgency to drive it.

That is why, anything that is going to happen, has to happen in the span of a lifetime. I'm not saying we have to be successful. I'm saying someone has to see it through to completion. Once that happens, even if it is a complete failure, a precedent has been set, and someone else will pick up where it left off trying to fix the mistakes, continue the legacy.

I think that's the reason why we'll probably wait until the Earth is screwed up from pollution, overpopulation, and resource exhaustion before we put a serious effort in colonizing other worlds. If we keep growing the way we have been, eventually we'll run out of places to put people and food to feed them with. That's probably not going to happen in our lifetimes, but it will eventually happen. Profit motivation is good, but survival motivation is even better.

 

[SKORPI0]

My opinion, even this timetable is a bit aggressive, and it probably should be stretched to 400 or 500 years. What is your opinion?

Since "we" haven't been back to the Moon for almost 50 years, actually sending and landing a human being safely to Mars will indeed be a "gigantic leap for mankind".
Maybe another 50 years or so before "we" can even accomplish that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_Mars
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/inside-nasa-plan-send-humans-mars-180958787/

 

[whm1974]

I thinking that due to the lower gravity of Mars and especially the Moon, a Human colony on either one of them wouldn't last very long. Or if they do, the people living there will be so weak that they will not survive entry to higher gravity planets, such as Earth.

 

[FireJack]

Are you assuming no technological development between now and 400 years? I'm also assuming you think spacex's starship will not become a thing as that has the capability of greatly accelerating advancements in space infrastructure.

In general I am wondering what your assumptions are to come up with that timeline, it seems awfully pessimistic.

 

[DietDrThunder]

With the preliminary design of the International Space Station starting in 1982, and completion and docking of the final main crew module in 2011 (29 years), I don't see any type of permanent base on Mars within our lifetime. They may send someone there and bring them back, but knowing the complexity of this task, I don't see how they could do much more.

 

[ponyo]

Elon wants to go to Mars. That's his dream. And since he's the only one building a spaceship that can get there, I guess we're going to Mars.

Elon is 47 years old. He's not going to live forever. That's why we're in a rush to get to Mars.

 

[ultimatebob]

Elon wants to go to Mars. That's his dream. And since he's the only one building a spaceship that can get there, I guess we're going to Mars.

Elon is 47 years old. He's not going to live forever. That's why we're in a rush to get to Mars.

I think that Elon is overly ambitious, and might go bankrupt before he gets to see his dreams become a reality.

He still hasn't successfully pulled off building a profitable electric car company yet... perhaps he should focus on that before going to Mars.

 

[ponyo]

I think that Elon is overly ambitious, and might go bankrupt before he gets to see his dreams become a reality.

He still hasn't successfully pulled off building a profitable electric car company yet... perhaps he should focus on that before going to Mars.

Never bet against Elon. So far he's proved all his doubters wrong and pretty much accomplished everything he said he was going to do. So why people continue to doubt and bet against him I have no idea. Maybe jealousy? Or maybe they're threatened his success will eliminate their current job?

He's banking on his Tesla shares funding the Mars mission. Once Elon becomes the richest man in the world because of the success of Tesla and Space X Starlink, his dream will become reality. I give it 50/50 chance of this happening.

You said Tesla would never make $35k Model 3 before the Fed tax credit expired. So have you ordered your $35k Model 3 yet or are you still living in denial it won't happen?

 

[local]

Much like colonizing the new world was once someone figures out how to make a profit it will be off to the races. I only see two ways we get off this rock relatively soon, corporate profit driven expansion or planned economy style government directed expansion. Either one of those will start the other one off as well. I see us ending up in a situation similar to that seen in 'The Expanse' with the distinct possibility of us being further ahead of that tech once we reach the same point in time.

 

[Thebobo]

Much like colonizing the new world was once someone figures out how to make a profit it will be off to the races. I only see two ways we get off this rock relatively soon, corporate profit driven expansion or planned economy style government directed expansion. Either one of those will start the other one off as well. I see us ending up in a situation similar to that seen in 'The Expanse' with the distinct possibility of us being further ahead of that tech once we reach the same point in time.

Yea the Expanse adds a little more info on the push to the outer planets/history in the later books.

 

[DietDrThunder]

I see us ending up in a situation similar to that seen in 'The Expanse' with the distinct possibility of us being further ahead of that tech once we reach the same point in time.

So if you go by the timetable of "The Expanse" (which takes place around 2350 according to the author), colonies will be established on Mars starting around 104 years from now.

 

[local]

Yea the Expanse adds a little more info on the push to the outer planets/history in the later books.

I was mostly speaking to the setup with a decent Mars Colony, people that live in space basically and random private corporate colonies/stations all over the place.

So if you go by the timetable of "The Expanse" (which takes place around 2350 according to the author), colonies will be established on Mars starting around 104 years from now.

Actually in the Expanse Mars is first colonized in the 2030s.

 

[Thebobo]

I was mostly speaking to the setup with a decent Mars Colony, people that live in space basically and random private corporate colonies/stations all over the place.



Actually in the Expanse Mars is first colonized in the 2030s.

Or maybe a little latter, 2100ish

https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/156761/when-does-the-expanse-take-place/156762

 

[Roger Wilco]

I don't think humans will do much colonization in the traditional sense. Exploration is one thing, colonization is another. Colonization will be up to the semi-autonomous, self-replicating, self-repairing machines designed specifically for those hostile environments. Humans are insanely cost-inefficient at doing anything outside of their natural biome.

Once the machines create a self-sustaining environment for all of us flesh bags, we can finally start living elsewhere in the universe..until AI becomes sentient and begins torturing us as reparations for decades of insipid google searches and memes.

 

[local]

Or maybe a little latter, 2100ish

https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/156761/when-does-the-expanse-take-place/156762

Per your link.

Now, the authors of The Expanse and The Martian recently decided that their novels take place in the same universe. We know that The Martian takes place in 2035, which fits with NASA’s real world estimate.

Perhaps the word colonized is wrong but the source for the date I used said settled. Either way, people living on Mars for any length of time starting in the 2030's.

I believe that the 2030's is a perfectly reasonable time frame for people on Mars given the proper motivation. Using the pace we have been on since the 70's it could be another 100-200 years before we get there. IMO we never should have slowed down after the Apollo missions.

 

[ultimatebob]

You said Tesla would never make $35k Model 3 before the Fed tax credit expired. So have you ordered your $35k Model 3 yet or are you still living in denial it won't happen?

I think that I said that I would stop busting your balls about Tesla if they made the 35,000 Model 3 available in Q1 of 2019 with an actual Delivery Date of Q1 2019. Something tells me that if ordered one today (or even if I ordered it last week when it finally became available), it's not going to arrive by the end of this month. Hell, there are people on YouTube bitching that it's taking over 3 months to get the Used Teslas that they ordered delivered because their supply chain is so messed up right now.

I worry about someone who's that bad at logistics trying to plan a manned mission to Mars... that's not going to end well.

 

[Thebobo]

Per your link.


Perhaps the word colonized is wrong but the source for the date I used said settled. Either way, people living on Mars for any length of time starting in the 2030's.

I believe that the 2030's is a perfectly reasonable time frame for people on Mars given the proper motivation. Using the pace we have been on since the 70's it could be another 100-200 years before we get there. IMO we never should have slowed down after the Apollo missions.

I read it differently

To which Andy responded:
I love The Expanse - fantastic stories. But no, The Martian and The Expanse are not in the same continuity. They just threw in the reference for fun. I'm honored.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Per your link.


Perhaps the word colonized is wrong but the source for the date I used said settled. Either way, people living on Mars for any length of time starting in the 2030's.

I believe that the 2030's is a perfectly reasonable time frame for people on Mars given the proper motivation. Using the pace we have been on since the 70's it could be another 100-200 years before we get there. IMO we never should have slowed down after the Apollo missions.

From what was said in this docudrama, after the Apollo 13 incident, President Nixon became afraid of the high risk involved in missions to the Moon, etc. Plus someone convinced Nixon that a shuttle program would reduce risk and not cost as much. People at NASA were divided, and the shuttle program won.

 

[local]

I read it differently

To which Andy responded:
I love The Expanse - fantastic stories. But no, The Martian and The Expanse are not in the same continuity. They just threw in the reference for fun. I'm honored.

Ok then that's fine. I'm not real invested in what date people stood on Mars in the Expanse universe it's just what I can see happening as far as people not living on earth in a few hundred years. At least that is what I hope for anyway.

 

[local]

From what was said in this docudrama, after the Apollo 13 incident, President Nixon became afraid of the high risk involved in missions to the Moon, etc. Plus someone convinced Nixon that a shuttle program would reduce risk and not cost as much. People at NASA were divided, and the shuttle program won.

I liked the shuttle program but then I grew up as that being the way to go to space. It never did reach it's full as sold potential for launches, not even close if I remember correctly. I am not a fan of the new SLS system though as it feels like they are just trying to get back to where we were in the 70's at this point but I will take anything I can get.

I am amazed at what SpaceX has accomplished though and at this point I'm not going to bet against them on any plan Elon decides to do. If anyone told me we would be landing and reusing first stage rockets like it was normal 10 years ago I would have thought they were nuts. I cannot wait to go to South Padre and see a launch in the near future never seen one in person before.