Charlie is saying TSMC's initial 20nm ramp up will go exclusively to Apple.
https://semiaccurate.com/2012/12/06/nvidias-maxwell-process-choice/#.UOjxXW80V8E
Is TSMC that ballsy? Cut out Qualcomm, Nvidia, and AMD who have been TSMC's bleeding edge customers for years?
If Apple are paying for 20 nm (either 'financing' it upfront by putting down huge cash, or as higher prices per wafer/chip) and others are not, I do not see why Qualcomm, AMD, nvidia et al have any reason to complain. Free market: foundry can set the price, and others can decide to pay or not pay that price.
If others are so unhappy, they can always find some other foundry partner.
Looks like in the end it may hurt consumers more than Samsung. If news rumors.are.true.Samsung looks to be delaying its new fab in Korea which estimated cost to finish 5 billion plus.
The second sentence suggests it will hurt Samsung more than consumers. Having a foundry on leading edge (let us exclude Intel, they are in their own universe) only makes sense if you have product(s) you can fab and sell in sufficient quantities.
This is the moment of truth for Samsung. Either they step up
big time in foundry business, allocate
even more resources to develop their own processors (not just mobile, but servers as well) and gain other business to keep their foundries busy, or they reconcile themselves to forever being a third-tier also-ran.
This also turns back to the Atom part again, people think the CPU cost matters. It does for Qualcomm, but not for Samsung, HTC, LG, Huiwai, Apple, Motorola etc. They are more busy on the 400$ total phone profit for their highend models.
This is extremely short-sighted and dangerous strategy for all these players building their smartphones around ARM SoC.
At the top end, Intel will swoop in and steal the high margin SoCs (they'll leave the scraps for ARM, as usual), and at the lower end Chinese ODMs/OEMs will be building budget smartgadgets around cheap 'obsolete' ARM SoCs that are 'good enough' for most consumers. Focus will more be on price points like $99, $149 and such, rather than absolute performance.
For what most people use their smartgadgets for, they don't
need leading edge CPU or GPU performance. And those who
need absolute best performance will get their fix from Apple or Intel Inside gadgets.
These days of high-margin ARM SoCs are not going to last, I assure you. These guys are living dangerously and are going to get slaughtered. No one believed Nokia would collapse into irrelevance as they have, we will eventually see something similar on the smartgadget side.
(I leave Apple out of this when I speak of "ARM" because their ARM is practically a whole different chip, and there's is a whole different business model. Like Intel, they are in their own universe.)