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Clinton will get nominated, regardless of vote. So far she wins 2 states.

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K1052 said:
Until the polls move or he wins one it's just more talk. The polls out of SC are no more favorable to him than they have been AFAIK. Unless he converts huge numbers of non-white voters really soon I don't see a path to the nomination for him.
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Those polls are old
 
Phokus said:
I think Bernie supporters voting for Trump and throwing out congressional democrats on the downticket voting would destroy the DNC.
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If by "destroy" you mean there would be a leadership overhaul (likely replacing old puppets with new ones) to appease the masses, then perhaps.

Modern society seems to have a lot less power now that the government has realized it doesn't have to be accountable for anything. I don't think the average Joe has enough clout, even in complete uproar mode, to change things any longer.
 
Phokus said:
If Bernie wins the delegate count and the DNC establishment tries to tip the scales with superdelegate votes, that will destroy the democratic party and throw a ton of establishment dems out of congress due to righteous anger. They won't do that, trust me.
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Absolutely agree. That would guarantee a loss in the general as well. The rage of the progressive left would be unholy.
 
K1052 said:
Most people would be interested in some data to see how he's closing a 30-40 point polling gap before making such predictions.

I guess you're not most people. 😀
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Surface level it just seems to be higher participation from the younger generation. CNN appears to have pulled the graph entirely for unknown reasons, but last night the results were pretty damning. Complete polar opposites between young to old in Sanders vs. Clinton.
 
K1052 said:
Most people would be interested in some data to see how he's closing a 30-40 point polling gap before making such predictions.

I guess you're not most people. 😀
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AFAIK South Carolina and Nevada are proportional (are any Democrat states not? Having a hard time finding this) so any amount the gap has shrunk could be helpful for Bernie.
 
Exophase said:
AFAIK South Carolina and Nevada are proportional (are any Democrat states not? Having a hard time finding this) so any amount the gap has shrunk could be helpful for Bernie.
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All Democratic primary states are proportional so long as a candidate gets more than like 10 or 15% of the vote. (I can't remember what the exact cutoff is but basically they all are proportional.)
 
eskimospy said:
All Democratic primary states are proportional so long as a candidate gets more than like 10 or 15% of the vote. (I can't remember what the exact cutoff is but basically they all are proportional.)
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Thanks. There's so many things to keep track of here, makes me feel like an idiot.

From what I can find Clinton had a significant lead in superdelegates vs Obama in 2008, but that of course shifted.
 
The establishment is taking a basting.... an absolute basting. Hillary is looking like the paper tiger yet again. She was invincible until an unknown Obama kicked the shit out of her. She was even more invincible coming into this one and has been beaten down even worse. I am surprised and heartened by her ass-kicking thus far.
 
Exophase said:
AFAIK South Carolina and Nevada are proportional (are any Democrat states not? Having a hard time finding this) so any amount the gap has shrunk could be helpful for Bernie.
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Even if the gap closes somewhat collecting less delegates than your opponent isn't a ticket to the nomination.
 
K1052 said:
Most people would be interested in some data to see how he's closing a 30-40 point polling gap before making such predictions.

I guess you're not most people. 😀
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Many poll results for states after IA and NH are stale, IIRC the ones from Nevada are a couple months ago or even older. http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/nevada-democratic-caucus-polls-2016/

It does seem that there were a bunch of undecideds in earlier polls, for example the RealClearPolitics poll averages for NV are Clinton 50%, Sanders: 30.5%. So that's a full 20% of people who will probably fall into one camp or the other. And that's before you start considering who might change sides before then.
 
Exophase said:
Thanks. There's so many things to keep track of here, makes me feel like an idiot.

From what I can find Clinton had a significant lead in superdelegates vs Obama in 2008, but that of course shifted.
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Clinton had a lead over Obama, but it wasn't nearly as lopsided as it is now... and Obama had some major establishment backing like Ted Kennedy.
 
Hugo Drax said:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-02-09#NH-Dem


Also clinton has 394 super delegates who are voting for her regardless of the outcome. so she is ahead before any elections in the 48 other states.
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Your phrase "regardless of the outcome" is the problem. The current superdelegate list comes from this survey:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/98c6fd82b5154d01ae2bc998f69d4f23/clinton-has-early-commanding-delegate-lead-nomination

The Associated Press contacted all 712 superdelegates in the past two weeks, and heard back from more than 80 percent. They were asked which candidate they plan to support at the convention next summer.
The results:
Clinton: 359.
Sanders: 8.
O'Malley: 2.
Uncommitted: 210.
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Eskimospy is correct. Someone you "plan to support" and someone you support "regardless of the outcome" are two completely different things.

My current opinion is that Bernie will fade and Clinton will get the superdelegates. But that is just an opinion. Winds change quickly in politics.
 
K1052 said:
Until the polls move or he wins one it's just more talk. The polls out of SC are no more favorable to him than they have been AFAIK. Unless he converts huge numbers of non-white voters really soon I don't see a path to the nomination for him.
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Don't underestimate the power of Free Stuff 😎
 
Well clinton announced she is going to campaign with a black lady in order to help lock in the minority vote. She is smarter than sanders in knowing how to play that violin. For sure she is going to win.
 
Hugo Drax said:
Well clinton announced she is going to campaign with a black lady in order to help lock in the minority vote. She is smarter than sanders in knowing how to play that violin. For sure she is going to win.
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But Sanders sat down for breakfast with Rev Al this morning. Match made in heaven, 1 who promises to raise taxes and 1 who refuses to pay them.
 
Anyone think the Dem establishment is more afraid of of Sanders getting the nomination than the Repub establishment is afraid of Trump getting the nomination?

I do.
 
Sinsear said:
But Sanders sat down for breakfast with Rev Al this morning. Match made in heaven, 1 who promises to raise taxes and 1 who refuses to pay them.
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Just like most big corporations who refuse to pay taxes through loopholes that they designed but good one though.
 
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