Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: BlancoNino
Our country fought a civil war and became a better place after it was over. Just trying to be optimistic...
I didn't say civil war in Iraq would be a good thing. I'm just saying that it won't ruin the country.
Optimism has its place in the world. But, unadulterated optimism without considering realism is a recipe for disaster (people aren't then prepared for what will really happen). So here is a touch of realism. History gave us a very recent example of what might happen in Iraq: Afghanistan. The two stories aren't 100% identical, but they are so close that they are worth comparing.
[*]Mid 1970s, Afghanistan had an unstable government from a military coup a few years earlier, Early 2000s Iraq had a stable government after a war a few years earlier (if you call Saddam stable). This is where the two stories differ, but the rest is similar.
[*]1978, battles broke out in a short war and shortly thereafter the USSR decided it wanted to force their form of goverment on Afghanistan. Afghan "holy warriors" were arrested and exiled. 2003, a short war started and shortly thereafter the USA decided it wanted to force their form of government on Iraq. Iraq "jihadists" were arrested and shipped to Guantanamo.
[*]1978+ USSR poored vast quantities of money into Afghanistan to build infrastructure and to train the Afghan army. 2003+ the US poored vast quantities of money into Iraq to build infrastucture and to train the Iraq army.
[*]1979-1988, after a short war period the instability just kept going, USSR was forced to have a prolonged and costly stabilization campaign. 1000 Soviet soldiers died a year. 2004-?, after a short war period the instability just kept going, USA was forced to have a prolonged and costly stabilization campaign. 1000 American soldiers died a year.
[*]1989-1998, civil war happened in Afghanistan, the Taliban eventually gained control, Al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden are the results of all of this. 200?, civil war starts in Iraq. Who knows what horrible government and terrorists will be the result.
Maybe Iraq's conclusion will be different than Afghanistan's conclusion. But so far, history seems to be repeating itself.