"Civil war in Iraq is Inevitable"

[sMiLeYz]

A few pieces...

"If the Americans leave, there will definitely be a civil war," says Sheik Nadhim Khalil, 25, who has no great love for U.S. troops.

Khalil, who made a quick trip from Dholoiya to Baghdad a few days after the raid, says he has joined the shura. If his attitude is any sign of what the group's members think, the cause of national unity is in deep trouble. Khalil makes no secret of his contempt for Iraq's Shiite majority. In his Friday sermons he has called for the creation of Sunni militias to challenge the Shiites' 10,000 or so Iranian-trained paramilitary fighters and the Kurds' roughly 70,000 battle-hardened peshmerga fighters. "We are willing to sacrifice our sons and fathers to stop the rule of black turbans," he says, using a Sunni term of disparagement for Shiites. "Being ruled by Shiites would be the same as being ruled by Iran. This is unacceptable." Attendance at his mosque has doubled in recent months.

Iraq's neighbors are saying prayers of their own as they watch what's happening next door. They have all had their share of ethnic problems with Kurds and other minorities, but their concern goes deeper than that. When the WMD searches came up empty, Bush aides began claiming that the invasion was actually a way of planting the seeds of democracy in Arab lands. Now the fear is that Iraq's collapse could destabilize the entire region.

Paints a rather rosey situation in Iraq doesn't it? Heads need to start rolling in the pentagon and whitehouse for causing this debacle.

Refereeing in Hell

 

[smashp]

I said from the begining this is Why we Should have never invaded Iraq. WE were Ill-prepared and had piss poor planing for post-saddam Iraq.


You Can not FORCE democracy on People that Dont BELIEVE in Democracy.

 

[chess9]

Well, that is an interesting scenario, isn't it? A civil war might keep those crazies busy for a 100 years. We'd certainly have fewer of them to deal with. For the U.S., right now this looks like the best option unless a moderate Shiite government can be successfully installed.

On the other hand, Iran could get involved in actively helping the Shiites.

Oh, good grief, all of this boggles one's mind. I'm only sure of one thing. We should never have opened this can of worms. This has got to be making a lot of right wingers nervous as well.... If not...they must be taking their medications for a change.

-Robert

 

[LunarRay]

As in India back in '48 it may be necessary to create a new state or states. Perhaps a federation of Iraqi states covered by an Iraqi Constitution. One with a very weak central government (anti - Hamilton-ism) giving all but the essential foreign affairs issues to the states and let them hash that out in a constitutional convention. If they do create a Pakistan or two or three the oil $ will always be an issue.. but, anything is better than a civil war.
The Kurds must be protected in this.. So I'd advocate creating Kurdistan and then break Iraq into four states and relocate folks as necessary to accomplish harmony.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: smashp
I said from the begining this is Why we Should have never invaded Iraq. WE were Ill-prepared and had piss poor planing for post-saddam Iraq.


You Can not FORCE democracy on People that Dont BELIEVE in Democracy.

Did we go into Iraq to create a democracy or to remove a dictator?

The West believes that democracy can solve all problems, however, religious hatred supercedes politics.
It takes a strong hard hand to control ethniic hatred.
Tito, Lenin, Stalin and Saddam were able to do it.
Democracy as a concept can not, in that case, the tolerance/acceptance must come from within the people.

This is the case of the haves becoming the have-nots and refusing to accept the new status quo. They are determined to create problems until they have their own way.

Sounds like US politics; Dems vs Repubs

 

[DragonMasterAlex]

I've said it before: It's MORE than Democracy that these people need, it's new IDEAS. They need to learn the importance of Liberty and of NATURAL RIGHTS. They need to learn that every man has a right to believe as he will and not have another man force his view upon him. These people have these problems because they still think in terms of the Rulers and the Ruled instead of terms of FREEDOM and REASON.

Savages, I tell you, bloody savages! They're a dangersous savage CHILD culture fighting over the most idiotic of premises.

Jason

 

[smashp]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper

Originally posted by: smashp
I said from the begining this is Why we Should have never invaded Iraq. WE were Ill-prepared and had piss poor planing for post-saddam Iraq.


You Can not FORCE democracy on People that Dont BELIEVE in Democracy.

Did we go into Iraq to create a democracy or to remove a dictator?

The West believes that democracy can solve all problems, however, religious hatred supercedes politics.
It takes a strong hard hand to control ethniic hatred.
Tito, Lenin, Stalin and Saddam were able to do it.
Democracy as a concept can not, in that case, the tolerance/acceptance must come from within the people.

This is the case of the haves becoming the have-nots and refusing to accept the new status quo. They are determined to create problems until they have their own way.

Sounds like US politics; Dems vs Repubs

Well this iraq scenerio that is upon us is the reason that the Theory of "pax americana" favored by modern day neocons has been discredited in the Past (JFK).

The US CANT allow a democratic election in Iraq. Unless our goal is to produce Iran II

 

[smashp]

Originally posted by: DragonMasterAlex
I've said it before: It's MORE than Democracy that these people need, it's new IDEAS. They need to learn the importance of Liberty and of NATURAL RIGHTS. They need to learn that every man has a right to believe as he will and not have another man force his view upon him. These people have these problems because they still think in terms of the Rulers and the Ruled instead of terms of FREEDOM and REASON.

Savages, I tell you, bloody savages! They're a dangersous savage CHILD culture fighting over the most idiotic of premises.

Jason

Yep Reminds me of the christian Coalitian and Those Pat robertson Types.

 

[chess9]

EagleKeeper and DragonMaster:

When the lion lays down with the lamb your ideals will be possible. Until then don't expect the people to change overnight. They won't. PERIOD. FORGET IT. They are human beings who have been programmed differently than us. You try to change their "operating system" and you'll get constant crashes and the RED SCREEN OF DEATH.

Kapish?

-Robert

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: DragonMasterAlex
I've said it before: It's MORE than Democracy that these people need, it's new IDEAS. They need to learn the importance of Liberty and of NATURAL RIGHTS. They need to learn that every man has a right to believe as he will and not have another man force his view upon him. These people have these problems because they still think in terms of the Rulers and the Ruled instead of terms of FREEDOM and REASON.

Savages, I tell you, bloody savages! They're a dangersous savage CHILD culture fighting over the most idiotic of premises.

Jason

IF you believe what you wrote why do you persist in trying to force another will upon them by insisting they need to learn what to them is irrelevant. They can an will exist as they have for quite some time now. This earther life is nothing compared to living according to the will of Allah and spending eternity in his presence.
Their Ruler that you easily dismiss is Allah.. their Supreme and only Ruler. They live according to his will. Is this a savage notion? I think it to be a rather appropriate way to live. Actually, Moses had a similar notion as do most Christian folks.. hardly savage.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
As in India back in '48 it may be necessary to create a new state or states. Perhaps a federation of Iraqi states covered by an Iraqi Constitution. One with a very weak central government (anti - Hamilton-ism) giving all but the essential foreign affairs issues to the states and let them hash that out in a constitutional convention. If they do create a Pakistan or two or three the oil $ will always be an issue.. but, anything is better than a civil war.
The Kurds must be protected in this.. So I'd advocate creating Kurdistan and then break Iraq into four states and relocate folks as necessary to accomplish harmony.

I think you will understand where I am coming from with this next statement LR...
Despotic tyrants have a certain utility. Saddam was like Tito in the sense he kept a group of people together who did not want to be. I expect (although hope to be wrong) that this will be like Yugoslavia.

Without the iron hand, people will start to make their own decisions as to how to conduct their business and government, and that means a fragmentation into more than one country. The biggest problem will be with the Kurds and Turkey. That could be very nasty.

Pity this obvious problem was not considered before the war.

 

[her209]

Iraqis Dead++

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: WinstonSmith

Originally posted by: LunarRay
As in India back in '48 it may be necessary to create a new state or states. Perhaps a federation of Iraqi states covered by an Iraqi Constitution. One with a very weak central government (anti - Hamilton-ism) giving all but the essential foreign affairs issues to the states and let them hash that out in a constitutional convention. If they do create a Pakistan or two or three the oil $ will always be an issue.. but, anything is better than a civil war.
The Kurds must be protected in this.. So I'd advocate creating Kurdistan and then break Iraq into four states and relocate folks as necessary to accomplish harmony.

I think you will understand where I am coming from with this next statement LR...
Despotic tyrants have a certain utility. Saddam was like Tito in the sense he kept a group of people together who did not want to be. I expect (although hope to be wrong) that this will be like Yugoslavia.

Without the iron hand, people will start to make their own decisions as to how to conduct their business and government, and that means a fragmentation into more than one country. The biggest problem will be with the Kurds and Turkey. That could be very nasty.

Pity this obvious problem was not considered before the war.

Oh.. absolutely.
There are other places in that area that have the Iron Hand with the lesser leaders all owing their power to the Iron Hand. In Iraq.. The Iron Hand is gone and there are lots of Iron Fingers popping up and the middle one is pointed at us.. well toward heaven..
The potential for civil war is real, I think. The blood of the Iraqi of one sect against the other would boil if stimulated appropriately, I figure. I think they are of different sects for reasons beyond what I understand.. but, assume it to be like the Catholic and Protestant in N. Ireland.. bitter hate.. not by all, certainly, but by enough folks to generate the will to fight in them all. I think
I like the Tito analogy.. I think a goodly number of people really like him.. I guess because of WWII.. In fact, I remember him being spoken of in high terms.. by the Jesuits while I was in skule. Well.. Pope... Ayatollah... Pope.. hmmmm.

 

[Czar]

this whole thing reminds me too much of the one time I was in a battlefield clan, before each clan mach the leader guy showed everyone the plan, which was great in itself, but it always relied on everything working out perfectly, so if one part failed everything failed and turned into total chaos. One of those things that look great on paper never ever seem to work because they always expect the X factor of turning out one way instead of the other.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz
Paints a rather rosey situation in Iraq doesn't it? Heads need to start rolling in the pentagon and whitehouse for causing this debacle.

"WE" caused what? Sounds like someone here thinks that Saddam still being in power was a better solution...and that someone isn't me

Just more handwringing and doomsdaying from the....:Q

CkG

 

[Tab]

We should have taken him out in Desert Storm

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Hmm so I guess it's Bush, the Greater's fault that Bush, the Lesser is failing in Iraq?

 

[chess9]

Tabb:

Bush the Elder had much better advice and instincts. That's why he didn't take out SH. He knew destabilizing that government would cause chaos in the region. FWIW, the father is twice the man the son is.

And Czar is right. Pentagon scenarios for the Iraq campaign must have looked like a schematic for the P4. A rosy one too. They really had NO CLUE what would happen in Iraq once they deposed SH and our appointed president has little understanding of how the rest of the world "fits" into a world where he thinks America is "it".

-Robert

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Paints a rather rosey situation in Iraq doesn't it? Heads need to start rolling in the pentagon and whitehouse for causing this debacle.

You're blaming the US for the hatred these people have had for each other for centuries?

That Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias can't get along is their fault. That they're all trying to live together in the same country is partially the fault of ancient people (as the shape of Iraq roughly mirrors that of ancient Mespotamia) and partly the fault of the British who created the state from the ruined Ottoman Empire after the first world war.

But at the same time, it's fun to blame the US government for everything, right?

What's next? Is someone gonna blame us that Iraq is a desert?

Originally posted by: chess9
Kapish?

=> Capisce?

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Paints a rather rosey situation in Iraq doesn't it? Heads need to start rolling in the pentagon and whitehouse for causing this debacle.

You're blaming the US for the hatred these people have had for each other for centuries?

That Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias can't get along is their fault. That they're all trying to live together in the same country is partially the fault of ancient people (as the shape of Iraq roughly mirrors that of ancient Mespotamia) and partly the fault of the British who created the state from the ruined Ottoman Empire after the first world war.

But...But...But.... If we didn't take out Saddam there wouldn't be civil war. Iraq wouldn't be in this turmoil. Iraq would be a happy place...
It's all our fault - we should have just left Saddam in power.

CkG

 

[sMiLeYz]

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Paints a rather rosey situation in Iraq doesn't it? Heads need to start rolling in the pentagon and whitehouse for causing this debacle.

You're blaming the US for the hatred these people have had for each other for centuries?

That Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias can't get along is their fault. That they're all trying to live together in the same country is partially the fault of ancient people (as the shape of Iraq roughly mirrors that of ancient Mespotamia) and partly the fault of the British who created the state from the ruined Ottoman Empire after the first world war.

But...But...But.... If we didn't take out Saddam there wouldn't be civil war. Iraq wouldn't be in this turmoil. Iraq would be a happy place...
It's all our fault - we should have just left Saddam in power.

CkG

Whoa man, I'd like to be a conservative. Than I'd live in La-La land, and all would be well. No more doomsdaying!

Saddam this Saddam that, he wasn't a threat to us. But no don't listen to me, nor the CIA, State department, Colin Powell or Paul O'Neill.
Somewhere before that it was about 9/11, but then not reallly, more about Weapons Of Destruction, then more liberating the People of Iraq, even if they hated us... oh well we still got Saddam.

I mean I see where you're going CKG, you rather have 400 billion down the drain, 500 of our boys dead and counting, 8000 Iraqi citizens dead and counting, our country being hated worldwide, Iraq about to fall into civil war and bloodshed; along with the rest of the middle east.
BUT WE GOT SADDAM! It makes it all better.

Me personally I didn't think it was worth it.

 

[sMiLeYz]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz

Paints a rather rosey situation in Iraq doesn't it? Heads need to start rolling in the pentagon and whitehouse for causing this debacle.

You're blaming the US for the hatred these people have had for each other for centuries?

That Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias can't get along is their fault. That they're all trying to live together in the same country is partially the fault of ancient people (as the shape of Iraq roughly mirrors that of ancient Mespotamia) and partly the fault of the British who created the state from the ruined Ottoman Empire after the first world war.

But at the same time, it's fun to blame the US government for everything, right?

What's next? Is someone gonna blame us that Iraq is a desert?

Originally posted by: chess9
Kapish?

=> Capisce?

You can even blame Muhammond for fathering Islam, but that doesn't change the fact that none of this turmoil would be occuring if GWB hadn't invaded. Kapish?

 

[EagleKeeper]

This is getting scary.

People here from different sides of the fence are all starting to say similar things regarding this thread and the internal strife within Iraq and how to solve it (We can't)

CAD, WinstonSmith, myself, B0mbrman, Chess9 (i belive that he understands my sarcasm based his above post).

Folks - we need to get back politics so valid political difference/ideas can start the flames up again.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz
Whoa man, I'd like to be a conservative. Than I'd live in La-La land, and all would be well. No more doomsdaying!

Saddam this Saddam that, he wasn't a threat to us. But no don't listen to me, nor the CIA, State department, Colin Powell or Paul O'Neill.
Somewhere before that it was about 9/11, but then not reallly, more about Weapons Of Destruction, then more liberating the People of Iraq, even if they hated us... oh well we still got Saddam.

I mean I see where you're going CKG, you rather have 400 billion down the drain, 500 of our boys dead and counting, 8000 Iraqi citizens dead and counting, our country being hated worldwide, Iraq about to fall into civil war and bloodshed; along with the rest of the middle east.
BUT WE GOT SADDAM! It makes it all better.

Me personally I didn't think it was worth it.

What I posted a few posts back:

"WE" caused what? Sounds like someone here thinks that Saddam still being in power was a better solution...and that someone isn't me

Just more handwringing and doomsdaying from the....:Q

Yep - doom and gloom. We are hated

We killed them all

Iraq is going to fall into civil war and bloodshed

Yep - we caused all this - shame on us. We are bad - we are evil - we should have just left Saddam alone.

And you think I live in "La-La land"
Get a grip - everything bad that goes on is not because of the US.

CkG

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz
Whoa man, I'd like to be a conservative. Than I'd live in La-La land, and all would be well. No more doomsdaying!

Saddam this Saddam that, he wasn't a threat to us. But no don't listen to me, nor the CIA, State department, Colin Powell or Paul O'Neill.
Somewhere before that it was about 9/11, but then not reallly, more about Weapons Of Destruction, then more liberating the People of Iraq, even if they hated us... oh well we still got Saddam.

I mean I see where you're going CKG, you rather have 400 billion down the drain, 500 of our boys dead and counting, 8000 Iraqi citizens dead and counting, our country being hated worldwide, Iraq about to fall into civil war and bloodshed; along with the rest of the middle east.
BUT WE GOT SADDAM! It makes it all better.

Me personally I didn't think it was worth it.

What I posted a few posts back:

"WE" caused what? Sounds like someone here thinks that Saddam still being in power was a better solution...and that someone isn't me

Just more handwringing and doomsdaying from the....:Q

Yep - doom and gloom. We are hated

We killed them all

Iraq is going to fall into civil war and bloodshed

Yep - we caused all this - shame on us. We are bad - we are evil - we should have just left Saddam alone.

And you think I live in "La-La land"
Get a grip - everything bad that goes on is not because of the US.

CkG

I'm sure England said the same thing.