Civil War coming in Iran

[ScottyB]

I've been following the Iranian election developments, and now The Huffington Post is reporting a possible takeover in which the Ayatollah will be challenged.

The report goes on to say that the main rivals of Ahmadinejad are posed to be jailed and slaughtered by him in the coming days, but they are using their contacts to stage a takeover (they are all under house arrest).

Pictures show people in the streets rioting and standing up to their government. Civil War seems to be inevitable to me. War is never a good thing; but if they can become a proper democracy, I can only wish the youth luck in their efforts to transform Iran.


Edit: With apologies to Hayabusa and Arianna.

 

[jpeyton]

My money is on the guy that controls the military.

 

[eits]

60% of iran is under the age of 30. i think a revolution will occur. not sure about a civil war, though.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

It's the Huffington Post, not "report"

 

[Thump553]

Highly unlikely. Even the major opponent (who allegedly lost) was a dyed in wool supporter of the system of government they have now, where the unelected religious leaders are the supreme leaders.

Plus from what I understand the Revolutionary Guard is firmly allied with Ahmedinejhad.

My predicition is lot of rioting, severe crackdown and bloodshed. The problems of how to handle international relations, internal economy and nuclear ambitions have gotten infinately more complicated, though.

Cliff's Notes: Iran will continue to be a sh*thole.

 

[yllus]

Will not happen. The Western fantasy in which the young of Iran rise up and demand full unfettered access to democracy and satellite TV is just that - fantasy.

 

[Sacrilege]

Don't be ridiculous. Nothing will change in Iran, young people always give up in politics. Remember that the original revolution was about freedom from the Shah and his secret police. Then the hard-line clerics established a government with religious police and the young people did nothing. The young people in Iran have protested before and returned to their homes after a few days of letting out steam, with no change in government policies or freedoms. It's just like P Diddy's failed Vote or Die campaign which predicted massive youth turnout in the 2004 election. We now how that went....

Iran will remain a hard line Shia theocracy, sending weapons into Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza, with no new freedoms. Israel is probably fueling its bombers right now to strike the nuclear facilities.

 

[Sinsear]

Delusional you are. There will be no civil war. Iran has voted. And voted to keep being the enemy of the free world.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Sinsear
Delusional you are. There will be no civil war. Iran has voted. And voted to keep being the enemy of the free world.

"enemy of the free world"? What if this free world does not oppose or stop a hardline nuclear Iran?

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Sinsear
Delusional you are. There will be no civil war. Iran has voted. And voted to keep being the enemy of the free world.

"enemy of the free world"? What if this free world does not oppose or stop a hardline nuclear Iran?

Then you will just have to get used to having to change your underwear every hour or so.

 

[eits]

Originally posted by: Sinsear
Delusional you are. There will be no civil war. Iran has voted. And voted to keep being the enemy of the free world.

wow, you're naive as fuck.

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: eits
60% of iran is under the age of 30. i think a revolution will occur. not sure about a civil war, though.

exactly... The youth of Iran are educated and idealistic. not going to take that crap from islamic fundies for ever.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Sinsear
Delusional you are. There will be no civil war. Iran has voted. And voted to keep being the enemy of the free world.

No, but thanks for playing! See the girl at the door for your complimentary copy of "Reality for the clueless"

There weren't enough conservatives supporters to get what's his name reelected in the moderates home district. When you have more votes than voters who would pick a particular candidate then you demonstrably have a problem.

I sense that you just hate Iran and so you'll go to the absurd in order to justify your position even if it's that of a fool. Either that or you are just trolling.

Simply put the facts do not support your position.

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: yllus
Will not happen. The Western fantasy in which the young of Iran rise up and demand full unfettered access to democracy and satellite TV is just that - fantasy.

Don't forget the cupcakes and porn

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: shiner

Originally posted by: yllus
Will not happen. The Western fantasy in which the young of Iran rise up and demand full unfettered access to democracy and satellite TV is just that - fantasy.

Don't forget the cupcakes and porn

Or Walmart, and the interesting customers that one finds when in possession of brined cucumbers (obscure reference)

I don't know why Sully doesn't think that the Iranians won't do what they did a generation ago. They are still just as proud and resistant to being told they have to accept a fraud.

I don't think that this is THE moment, but it may be the pebble that starts the avalanche.

 

[Lemon law]

The Achmadinejad answer is arrest everyone.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06...15webiran.html?_r=1&hp

Nothing builds a rebellion better than tactics like those. With 60% of Iran under the age 30, enough people in the protest movement will reach places of refuge in other countries and be tireless voices saying something is rotten in Iran. And the Iranian people will listen, because in a modern world, its impossible to censor all voices.

The seeds of a bitter harvest have been planted, and Achmadinejad and Iran will have no credibility in the broader world. If Acmadinejad had little credibility before, its going to be we ain't seen nothing yet. And past the borders of Iran, any arrest powers vanish, and every time he opens his mouth or shows his face, he will have to confront his own legitimacy questions from everyone.

If the Mullahs and the revolutionary guards want to become Achmadeinjad's version of the secret police, they all may want to review Iranian history and ask what happened to the Shah and fast he fell?

I agree with Haybusa Rider, this may be a the pebble that starts the avalanche, but when the Mullahs put themselves against the people, its their inevitable end, it need not be bloody, but it draws the battle lines of the vast majority against the too powerful few.

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

Originally posted by: shiner

Originally posted by: yllus
Will not happen. The Western fantasy in which the young of Iran rise up and demand full unfettered access to democracy and satellite TV is just that - fantasy.

Don't forget the cupcakes and porn

Or Walmart, and the interesting customers that one finds when in possession of brined cucumbers (obscure reference)

I don't know why Sully doesn't think that the Iranians won't do what they did a generation ago. They are still just as proud and resistant to being told they have to accept a fraud.

I don't think that this is THE moment, but it may be the pebble that starts the avalanche.

We're at least 10 to 15 years away from a reasonable expectation that the people of Iran will rise up and overthrow the current system of government.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Then you will just have to get used to having to change your underwear every hour or so.

Republicans keep you up at night, eh?

 

[Orignal Earl]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Then you will just have to get used to having to change your underwear every hour or so.

Republicans keep you up at night, eh?

Folk like you, make alot of people wonder

 

[Tab3076]

Interesting, there's a lot of media on the web if you know where to look. One of them is a big picture of Tehran but you can see smoke billowing from everywhere. I don't know about riots or riot control but damn it looks pretty fucking serious.

 

[Sinsear]

Let it burn.

 

[Aimster]

The guy who lost is calling the leadership of Iran tyrants. If he said anything about the leadership of Iran prior to the election he wouldn't be allowed to run.

Iran counted 35 million votes in a matter of hours and some members in here are saying the election was accurate? The votes are all paper ballots.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Aimster
The guy who lost is calling the leadership of Iran tyrants. If he said anything about the leadership of Iran prior to the election he wouldn't be allowed to run.

Iran counted 35 million votes in a matter of hours and some members in here are saying the election was accurate? The votes are all paper ballots.

joe biden was saying on MTP this morning that something like 70% of the votes came from urban areas, which were projected to heavily favor the opposition.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Sinsear
Delusional you are. There will be no civil war. Iran has voted. And voted to keep being the enemy of the free world.

"enemy of the free world"? What if this free world does not oppose or stop a hardline nuclear Iran?

Then you will just have to get used to having to change your underwear every hour or so.

But Obama said he would "do everything in my power" to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. And I don't have that many pairs of underwear.

 

[Lemon law]

In some related news, without posting the links, Achmadinejad has now arrested some thousand opposition leaders, and even major Iranian cleric groups are joining in to denounce the election as a fraud. I doubt this is an issue that will just go away if repressed.

But I agree, its an Iranian internal matter, any foreign entity that actively challenges Iran will only have the net effect of uniting Iran behind Achmadinejad.