Usually, art design is the last stage of the development. If a game is being developed under Dx10, adding Dx11 tessellation is not hard, depending on how much arts are already done. This is why Civ 5 and Hawx 2 can go crazy on Dynamic Tessellation so quickly. You can expect lots of games requiring lots of tessellation on 2011, not 2015.
The "stop sign" is the number of people using Dx11 cards. Developers can't release a game if it looks like Tekken for most of its potential players. In other words, they can't release a game that is only playable on Dx11 cards. What they really should have done is to first create arts under Dx11, then create a pre-tessellated skin for Dx10. This way, the game will look identical under Dx10/11, but 460/6870 will get 10x FPS compare to 285/4870.
(The TL;DR version of what I'm about to say: Businesspeople decide whether or not to include DX11 into a game and how much of it to include, not engineers, so don't expect extreme tessellation to pop up all over the place now or even in 2011.)
In case that was directed at me, I want to reiterate my thoughts more clearly:
Although the number of games that use DX11 effects is rising, many games won't use DX11 at all through 2011.
1. There will be an increasing number of PC games taking advantage of DX11
2. However, from a business perspective it doesn't make sense for some gamedevs to put ANY resources in DX11 in their games. Many games are not sold for their graphics, but rather their gameplay. E.g., Plants v Zombies and World of Goo will see little need for DX11. They need optimized DX9, Flash, etc. to run on low-spec machines. Also, there are lots of people who know how to work with DX9 out there whom you can hire for cheap. I can't believe that it would be cheaper to hire DX11-savvy people instead of or in addition to the DX9 team. Keep in mind that we are waist-deep in one of the deepest recessions of the last 100 years with no real end in sight.
Of the games that use DX11 through 2011, it's unlikely that many of them will use extreme tessellation. (The best chance of a breakout is probably Crysis 2, which has received NVIDIA money and may have lots of DX11 effects AND GPU PhysX.)
1. Even if a game uses DX11 effects, the game still needs to look good on DX9. Why? Market size. If I'm a sane businessperson, then I'm going to give DX9 priority for resources. Compared to the massive size of the DX9 market (including consoles), there are not many rigs that have a combination of a) DX11 operating system + b) gaming-quality CPU + c) gaming-quality DX11 GPU. Keep in mind that the economy is horrible, which doesn't help in rapidly increasing DX11 rig counts.
2. Even among games that use DX11 effects (perhaps for marketing reasons), gamedevs know that AMD owns ~90% of the DX11 market, so a large fraction of DX11 rigs will have a relatively weak tessellator. Am I going to use extreme tessellation so that performance tanks on that large fraction of DX11 rigs using AMD GPUs? Especially since the number of Dx11 rigs is already so low to begin with? Not unless I get a lucrative deal from NVIDIA to make up for lost $ales due to frustrated AMD-GPU owners refusing to buy my game.
3. Note that Civ V and HAWX2 run fine on AMD GPUs. We have yet to see a game that totally tanks on AMD GPUs thanks to extreme tessellation. This is because businesspeople have final say on how much tessellation to use in a game.
4. The above is why I said that we won't be seeing extreme tessellation in major games anytime from now through 2011, and possibly later. There might be some weirdo indie gamedev out there who makes a playable tech demo using extreme tessellation, but I'm excluding fringe cases like that. You can quote me on this, too: other than *perhaps* Crysis 2, there will be no major game titles in 2011 that can't run in DX9.
I have no idea where 2015 came from so that must be referring to someone else. I make no concrete predictions past Dec. 31, 2011. I even hedged on whether there is some top-secret console launch due in 2011 that we don't know about.