Question Chinese manufacturing

[maddogmcgee]

I was reading this article and it got me wondering what level Chinese CPU's have gotten to? Obviously claiming that they are at 14nm doesn't mean their manufacturing facilities are capable of making a Rocket Lake chip but it at least made me wonder if they might catch up in a decade or two. They certainly have the market size and capital required. And the willingness to buy/steal a lot of industrial information.

'They're dying to get better chips': Why the US is trying to squeeze China out of the advanced microchip game

By tightening controls on China's developing advanced microchip industry, the US might be pushing allies to work against its interests, as both countries spend vast amounts of money chasing technological supremacy.

www.abc.net.au

 

[IntelUser2000]

There's a good chance they'll catch up and even exceed the West not just because of their bad policies(like cheating and stealing) but better ones.

Their education is not hyper focused on social justice/gender theory for example. The ridiculousness of the current western system should be plain to everybody. Netflix "history" shows using different race from the original story just for what, "political correctness". Yea, pull that crap in China and put Japanese, American, actors and see what they do. You'll be yanked from your studios and probably put into prison for propaganda!

Read this analysis here: https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/why-america-will-lose-semiconductors

US for example has worse policy, worse tax system, lower funding, and lower incentive for graduates and startups to go into semi. Since semi is the driving force for many industries and pretty much the only thing the West leads right now, it's a troubling truth. They might be ok for 7-10 years. What happens after that is the real question.

Note, I did NOT say all of what China does is good, it's just that US/Europe is making worse decisions.

 

[moinmoin]

They certainly have the market size and capital required. And the willingness to buy/steal a lot of industrial information.

China can't steal it, it's too complex a chain of interdependent high technology to just copy. And China is more and more locked out from buying the necessary leading edge manufacturing technology due to sanctions. Furthermore China for well a decade now hampered its own efforts with ponzi schemes and widespread corruption.

See my post in the "Leading Edge Foundry Node" thread:

Page 15 - Discussion - Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel)

Page 15 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

forums.anandtech.com

As well as

Corruption is sending shock waves through China’s chipmaking industry

The arrests of several top semiconductor fund executives could force the government to rethink how it invests in the sector.

www.technologyreview.com

With more details in

China's “Semiconductor Theranos”: HSMC

(The audio version of this post can be found on the Interconnected YouTube channel [https://www.youtube.com/c/Interconnected_newsletter]): China’s semiconductor ambition just had its first ponzi scheme fully exposed: Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing [http://en.hsmc.com/] (HSMC). The...

interconnected.blog

 

[maddogmcgee]

Appreciate the links, reading them now. I'm not so sure they can't steal enough to help them catch up much faster than they otherwise would. Reverse engineering of Russian designs, theft of data and their own research has gotten them to the point where they can make their own advanced fighters (even the engines now).

On the other hand, Global Foundries 7nm debacle is a great example of how much money and time these things take.

 

[maddogmcgee]

There's a good chance they'll catch up and even exceed the West not just because of their bad policies(like cheating and stealing) but better ones.

Their education is not hyper focused on social justice/gender theory for example. The ridiculousness of the current western system should be plain to everybody. Netflix "history" shows using different race from the original story just for what, "political correctness". Yea, pull that crap in China and put Japanese, American, actors and see what they do. You'll be yanked from your studios and probably put into prison for propaganda!

Read this analysis here: https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/why-america-will-lose-semiconductors

US for example has worse policy, worse tax system, lower funding, and lower incentive for graduates and startups to go into semi. Since semi is the driving force for many industries and pretty much the only thing the West leads right now, it's a troubling truth. They might be ok for 7-10 years. What happens after that is the real question.

Note, I did NOT say all of what China does is good, it's just that US/Europe is making worse decisions.

I'm an Aussie so have never experienced the American Education system first hand but it seems a stretch to claim that policies around inclusivity are going to make that much of a difference. If anything, you could argue that discrimination against non Han Chinese, limits China a lot more than a Netflix series ever will.

I guess in this context by "West" I am also including Korea and Taiwan who are both market leaders and closely integrated into the Western market. China being able to produce chips independently of Taiwan is very much an existential threat for them.

Appreciate the link.

 

[LightningZ71]

The impact of inclusivity policies is proportional to population size. China, with a population that's well over 1 billion, can exclude half of their population from everything and still have well over twice the available talent pool to work with for anything. The west just can't afford to tie their hands behind their backs in any way and hope to keep up, this means that we can't leave any portion of our population behind, but we ALSO can't afford to promote less capable people in many areas just because of their demographics while excluding others that have shown to have higher levels of academic and professional achievement. I know this isn't a popular take in some circles, but, its the cold reality the west faces.

The end result is one that we choose.

 

[moinmoin]

Just an example: All leading edge nodes rely on ASML's EUV technology. The US told Dutch ASML to not sell it to China so Chinese companies are locked out from that technology. It took two decades of research as well as massive outside financing (including by Intel and TSMC) until ASML was able to offer EUV in 2018. A single EUVL machine takes between one and two years to assemble and relies on more than thousand suppliers, many of them also specialized one-of-a-kind.

Asianometry does plenty good videos on these topics, like

Can China steal and reverse engineer all that? Maybe it can, but if they do we are likely talking about a time scale of decades. Meanwhile technology moves on and gets ever more complex than it already is.

Edit: Asianometry has a recent video on the topic of China’s Big Semiconductor Fund:

Edit: Another good Asianometry video on SMEE that's supposed to replace ASML eventually:

Chinaâs ASML is Years and Years Behind

Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment, or SMEE (ä¸æµ·å¾®çµåè£å¤) is Chinaâs ambitious project to replace ASML. The company has been around for a while, and they have ...

www.youtube.com

 

[LightningZ71]

Through industrial espionage, which is a well documented tactic of china (and other industrialized nations as well), China has likely learned which research paths were dead ends. While this won't allow them to suddenly produce EUV chips, it does afford them the luxury of knowing what path to follow, what equipment they actually need, and how certain things are built.

It will still take time as China likely hasn't even built all of the tools that they need to even assemble an EUV machine that can produce at scale, much less the machines themselves. However, once they do, they have an unparalleled ability to scale out and manufacture things by the boatload. Also keep in mind, if you are willing to sacrifice yield efficiency, you can build some impressive things on very large dies. Its not like a chip like comet lake and rocket lake is useless, its just not leading edge. China could produce those designs today if they wanted, though yields would be suspect.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Keep in mind innovation comes from people not patents and they have more of them and have more support. It wasn't like this just a little bit ago.

These are things that take time but will materialize. Look at their quantum communication satellite research that leaves others in the dust.

You also have lots of them being educated and/or working in other countries and go back to China. Espionage is one thing but taking your learnings and experience is another.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Keep in mind innovation comes from people not patents and they have more of them and have more support. It wasn't like this just a little bit ago.

These are things that take time but will materialize. Look at their quantum communication satellite research that leaves others in the dust.

You also have lots of them being educated and/or working in other countries and go back to China. Espionage is one thing but taking your learnings and experience is another.

Bs, how long did it take take China to make a Soviet era jet engine with the actual designs. That was realatively simple metallurgy issues compared to semiconductors.

You won't hear about the Wests quantum efforts , just like no one knew about the f-117 until it was first striking Saddam's AA.

For some reason authoritarian feel the need to be flashy.

 

[IEC]

China's population pyramid (heavily skewed towards an aging population), cult of personality worse than Stalin, youth unemployment >20%, and zero COVID policies means they'll be lucky to survive 10 more years without complete political and societal upheaval.

It would be in the Western world's best interests to support more semiconductor manufacturing (and manufacturing in general) domestically. And if cost-prohibitive, even Mexico has cheaper labor than China at this point, not to mention easier logistics.

 

[mikegg]

“When governments permit counterfeiting or copying of American products, it is stealing our future, and it is no longer free trade.” So said US President Ronald Reagan, commenting on Japan after the Plaza Accord was concluded in September 1985.

"Back in the 1980s, Japan was portrayed as the greatest economic threat to the United States, and allegations of intellectual property theft were only part of Americans' vilification. Thirty years later, Americans have made China the villain, when, just like three decades ago, they should be looking squarely in the mirror."

Japan Then, China Now | by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate

Stephen S. Roach finds remarkable similarities in the US approach to its trade deficit in the 1980s and today.

www.project-syndicate.org

Seems like American propaganda is working well. People here actually believe that modern China could only copy/steal.






Also, people forget that just 200 years ago, China had a higher GDP than Europe and the US combined. This significant advantage was eroded by drugs, colonialism, and wars. Unfortunately, people still think that the rise of modern China is a fluke and only because they steal US tech. You can argue that China is simply regaining its world status that it had before it was eroded by the West.



There is no doubt that China is behind technologically today. But let's not act like espionage is what will allow China to catch up. Like what @IntelUser2000 said, a lot of it is that a rich nation relaxes and its people want to go into arts, and humanities, and they don't want to work as hard. A poor nation will send everyone to STEM careers and they work harder because they need to.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Arts and humanities focus is fine. It's that they lose things that made them successful in the first place like strong family structure. It's quickly disintegrating. The asian cultures not only have that strong family structure but instills discipline as well.

Tell me how disruptive it will be to your life when you have to sort a messy divorce. And it's not like it ends there. Providing for your loved ones is a strong instinctual motivating factor and the strongest bond happens to be between parents and children.

Family structure falls --> Mental instability in future generations --> Increased crime --> Loss of general trust between populations, which is the key to successful societies - strong foundation which supports belief in a bright future with population you can trust to make deals, etc.

Things like semiconductor research belongs to very high level in the priority hierarchy. No one will care about computers if they have to worry about the future of the nation.

I don't see China as the "next America". No, they might be bigger than the US but it won't rival the height of US development.

 

[mikegg]

Arts and humanities focus is fine. It's that they lose things that made them successful in the first place like strong family structure. It's quickly disintegrating. The asian cultures not only have that strong family structure but instills discipline as well.

When a nation becomes so wealthy, the next generation loses the edge that the previous generation created. They quickly lose sight of what made them successful and they believe they will continue to win without putting in the effort and hard work. This is what is happening now. America is losing its importance and share of advanced technologies. And it's trying to put all the blame on China, including smearing campaigns.

In the US, you have low IQ workforce participants demanding high salaries. You have high IQ people going into arts and humanities. The US is about 20 years behind Europe in this regard. Then you have things like gender identity, gun control, and religion distracting everyone else.

In China, competition is fierce. Competition for universities. Competition for jobs. Companies competing with each other. This internal competition is what allowed Chinese companies to quickly rise up in the global stage. It only took a few years for Chinese phones to start dominating internationally.

The US and the West fear this competition from China. So now we have many more protectionist policies than just a few years ago under the guise of national security.

 

[Leeea]

Spoiler: P & N post

When a nation becomes so wealthy, the next generation loses the edge that the previous generation created.

In the US, we figured out a way around that.

It is called immigration. It is extremely effective.

However, to achieve maximum effectiveness, policies like inclusiveness need to be implemented. The immigrant needs to be allowed to reach their full potential.

To obtain the best possible outcome, everyone needs to have a fair chance to succeed.

 

[Leeea]

Spoiler: P & N post

In China, competition is fierce. Competition for universities. Competition for jobs. Companies competing with each other. This internal competition is what allowed Chinese companies to quickly rise up in the global stage. It only took a few years for Chinese phones to start dominating internationally.

You know what is also fierce in China? Government mismanagement.

The one child policy is one of many. But it is demographic cliff it presents China will end any hope this being a Chinese century. Each person in China will need to support 2 parents and a child just to break even. No brothers or sisters to share the load. Cultural tendencies also resulted in a gender imbalance, with to many male children.

Government policies also encouraged anti-immigrant tendencies, removing the only sane way to solve any of the problem.

China is stronger today then it will be tomorrow.

 

[mikegg]

Spoiler: P & N post

You know what is also fierce in China? Government mismanagement.

The one child policy is one of many. But it is demographic cliff it presents China will end any hope this being a Chinese century. Each person in China will need to support 2 parents and a child just to break even. No brothers or sisters to share the load. Cultural tendencies also resulted in a gender imbalance, with to many male children.

Government policies also encouraged anti-immigrant tendencies, removing the only sane way to solve any of the problem.

China is stronger today then it will be tomorrow.

Hm... I like how you picked out some of China's problems and concluded that China is stronger today than it will be tomorrow. It's like picking out a few of US' issues such as racism, crime, cultural mix, entitled culture, political instability, political extremism, illegal immigration, gun violence, healthcare issues, dependence on cars, lack of manufacturing, low education investment, lower tech dominance, etc etc and conclude that the US is stronger today than it will be tomorrow.

Also, why would China have friendly immigration policies right now when its population is still increasing? They'll open immigration when they need more workers. Immigration comes with its own set of problems such as inclusivity, politics, angering the local working class, etc.

Anyways, I'm not spreading CCP propaganda. I just want people here to be aware of another point of view than mainstream Western media.

 

[esquared]

I left this thread open to discuss the Chinese manufacturing issues as it pertains to CPUs and the like.
Politics can't help but be discussed in this manner but please don't bring up anything else that is not related to the discussion of CPUs/electronics, or I will be forced to lock the thread.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director

 

[moinmoin]

Building any semiconductor industry in China just got a little harder:

U.S. aims to hobble China's chip industry with sweeping new export rules

The rules could force American and foreign companies that use U.S. technology to cut off support for some of China's leading factories and chip designers.

www.reuters.com

 

[moinmoin]

Dylan Patel/SemiAnalysis has a good article worth reading outlining more clearly what's happening there:

China and USA Are Officially At Economic War – Technology Restriction Overview

New regulations will impact global trade by hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

semianalysis.substack.com

 

[moinmoin]

This development has a ramification that wasn't that obvious at first sight: So US nationals are no longer allowed to directly or indirectly work with or for the Chinese state. One might think, are there really that many US Americans in critical positions working in China? The answer might be yes, because plenty successful Chinese born people got a US passport and rather want to keep that.

Long Twitter thread (likely exaggerated in parts, but interesting development nevertheless):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580889341265469440

Semi-related article that shows this would just speed up an existing development of Chinese entrepreneurs leaving the country as the Chinese state takes on more and more control of the economy:

Twilight of Entrepreneurs in China as More Leave the Country (Published 2022)

Two of China’s best-known entrepreneurs, Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin, stepped down from their top jobs at the real estate development company they built.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Markfw]

I don't know if this has anything to do with these new rules, but I bought a supermicro motherboard a week ago, and its "stalled" with no delivery date.

SCHEDULED DELIVERY DATE
Pending


On Time

DELIVERY STATUS
In Transit









No scheduled delivery date available at this time.




Tracking ID
**********



From




SHENZHEN, CN

Label Created
10/11/2022 12:46 AM

PACKAGE RECEIVED BY FEDEX

SHENZHEN CN
10/12/2022 5:37 PM

IN TRANSIT


GUANGZHOU CN
10/14/2022 6:08 AM

 

[Harry_Wild]

I don't know if this has anything to do with these new rules, but I bought a supermicro motherboard a week ago, and its "stalled" with no delivery date.

SCHEDULED DELIVERY DATE
Pending


On Time

DELIVERY STATUS
In Transit









No scheduled delivery date available at this time.




Tracking ID
**********



From




SHENZHEN, CN

Label Created
10/11/2022 12:46 AM

PACKAGE RECEIVED BY FEDEX

SHENZHEN CN
10/12/2022 5:37 PM

IN TRANSIT


GUANGZHOU CN
10/14/2022 6:08 AM

Supermicro when I was a teen was out of reach for me to buy! It was like $500 back 30 years ago for a PC motherboard not a server board they make today! Now, the cost in today’s dollar got be around $3K+!

 

[Tech Junky]

@Markfw
Could be due to lockdowns in the region.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Could be due to lockdowns in the region.

That's been a problem all year for anyone who has suppliers in China. It's just making it easier for companies to contract with suppliers in other countries like India or Vietnam.