China's patience with North Korea wearing thin

[EagleKeeper]

Link

DANDONG, China (AP) — China's patience with North Korea is wearing thin, and a widely-expected nuclear test by the latter could bring that frustration to a head.

Beijing signaled its growing unhappiness by agreeing to tightened U.N. sanctions after North Korea launched a rocket in December, surprising China watchers with its unusually tough line, which prompted harsh criticism from Pyongyang.

And while China isn't expected to abandon its communist neighbor, it appears to be reassessing ties a year after new North Korean leader Kim Jong Un took office. The question is for how long China, itself under new leader Xi Jinping, will continue to back North Korea's nettlesome policies.

"Perhaps Kim Jong Un thinks Xi Jinping will indulge him. Perhaps he's in for a surprise," said Richard Bush, Director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.

China is feeling spurned by Kim. Although China welcomed his ascension after his father died in December 2011 and maintained flows of aid and investment, Kim has ignored China's interests in a stable neighborhood with his two rocket launches and nuclear test plan. North Korea announced last month it would conduct a test to protest the toughened U.N. sanctions.

"At the start, China gave him a warm welcome and, I think, some aid. But we got no gratitude. They take us for granted," said Jin Canrong, an international affairs expert at Renmin University in Beijing. "China tried to get closer to him, but it was not successful. China has become very disappointed."

I can understand that Kim wants to demonstrates that he is his own man.

However, to piss off your primary patron is not wise either.

He needs China more than China needs him.

 

[Ausm]

China has the U.S for their bitch so I definitely agree with the OP here.

 

[sunzt]

China would rather have SK than NK in that area. SK and China do lots of trade and are culturally more friendlier than SK-US culture/relations.

 

[Todd33]

Why does China care about NK? What do they get out of it?

 

[EagleKeeper]

Why does China care about NK? What do they get out of it?

Buffer zone against the US imperialism and puppet regime

 

[randomrogue]

It's probably just status-quo at this point.

 

[nextJin]

Why does China care about NK? What do they get out of it?

A few things,

- Containment, if the North ever has any sort of crisis (war for instance) China is going to be dealing with hundreds of thousands of refugees.
- They benefit much more from the US and SK than the North in almost every single category other than they are Communists.
- A nuclear North is probably bad news for China on all accounts.

 

[Genx87]

China has become very disappointed

I find that quote funny.

 

[Moonbeam]

Quote:
China has become very disappointed

I find that quote funny.

Like Zorg opening a box and not finding four stones?

 

[fskimospy]

China would rather have SK than NK in that area. SK and China do lots of trade and are culturally more friendlier than SK-US culture/relations.

This isn't true. China (correctly) views SK as a US proxy in the region, something they don't want on their borders.

 

[Jaskalas]

Why does China care about NK? What do they get out of it?

China's position may simply be left overs from the Korean War, the Cold War, etc. I mean... we do huge business with China yet WE don't do business with Cuba.

Nations are often times too pigheadedly stubborn to pivot when it is advantageous.

 

[Jaskalas]

This isn't true. China (correctly) views SK as a US proxy in the region, something they don't want on their borders.

What does China have to fear from that - war, territorial dispute?

What does being a US proxy even mean these days?

 

[fskimospy]

What does China have to fear from that - war, territorial dispute?

What does being a US proxy even mean these days?

I mean a country aligned with the US. China wants to expand its influence in SE Asia and part of that is being the largest military power there. I don't think they fear war so much as counterbalancing US military forces, enhances US surveillance ability, etc.

North Korea does a lot to occupy US attention right now, and at a very modest cost to china. I doubt they want to get rid of it.

 

[sunzt]

I mean a country aligned with the US. China wants to expand its influence in SE Asia and part of that is being the largest military power there. I don't think they fear war so much as counterbalancing US military forces, enhances US surveillance ability, etc.

North Korea does a lot to occupy US attention right now, and at a very modest cost to china. I doubt they want to get rid of it.

The US isn't going to add anymore forces to SK than it already has, if anything, they'll add more to the Japan contingent. Besides, the US forces in SK are there to counterbalance NK than China.

In today's time, if you gave China the choice of a NK or SK government next door, they will take the SK government's stability and economy over the NK irresponsibility and money pit.

Culturally, Chinese and SK get along better than US-SK, which would make a NK transition that much easier.

Don't forget they all went through these considerations last year when NK shot up the SK island and sub. The overall conclusion was that Beijing would rather have a reunified peninsula with SK in charge.

 

[EagleKeeper]

The US isn't going to add anymore forces to SK than it already has, if anything, they'll add more to the Japan contingent. Besides, the US forces in SK are there to counterbalance NK than China.

In today's time, if you gave China the choice of a NK or SK government next door, they will take the SK government's stability and economy over the NK irresponsibility and money pit.

Culturally, Chinese and SK get along better than US-SK, which would make a NK transition that much easier.

Don't forget they all went through these considerations last year when NK shot up the SK island and sub. The overall conclusion was that Beijing would rather have a reunified peninsula with SK in charge.

Bolded

???

Only is SK was kept neutral w/ respect to US forces

 

[Dari]

The US isn't going to add anymore forces to SK than it already has, if anything, they'll add more to the Japan contingent. Besides, the US forces in SK are there to counterbalance NK than China.

In today's time, if you gave China the choice of a NK or SK government next door, they will take the SK government's stability and economy over the NK irresponsibility and money pit.

Culturally, Chinese and SK get along better than US-SK, which would make a NK transition that much easier.

Don't forget they all went through these considerations last year when NK shot up the SK island and sub. The overall conclusion was that Beijing would rather have a reunified peninsula with SK in charge.

Of course they get "along better" culturally. That's because they are neighbors. But the cultural influence has always gone one way. Also, Korea has always been China's bitch, err, vassal state, so I'm sure they'd like that old arrangement as well. The questions is, given that China is a authoritarian state, do the Koreans want the same thing? I doubt it...

 

[sunzt]

Bolded

???

Only is SK was kept neutral w/ respect to US forces

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

Ok, closer to 2 years ago.

Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea'

 

[sunzt]

Of course they get "along better" culturally. That's because they are neighbors. But the cultural influence has always gone one way. Also, Korea has always been China's bitch, err, vassal state, so I'm sure they'd like that old arrangement as well. The questions is, given that China is a authoritarian state, do the Koreans want the same thing? I doubt it...

Korean food, music, and entertainment is very popular with Chinese in China and abroad. No one is talking about setting up an authoritarian state in SK. China probably prefers SK's government as is since they've managed to have good trade together and it keeps the US calm that SK is not authoritarian.

 

[fskimospy]

The US isn't going to add anymore forces to SK than it already has, if anything, they'll add more to the Japan contingent. Besides, the US forces in SK are there to counterbalance NK than China.

In today's time, if you gave China the choice of a NK or SK government next door, they will take the SK government's stability and economy over the NK irresponsibility and money pit.

Culturally, Chinese and SK get along better than US-SK, which would make a NK transition that much easier.

Don't forget they all went through these considerations last year when NK shot up the SK island and sub. The overall conclusion was that Beijing would rather have a reunified peninsula with SK in charge.

Where are you getting this information from? This runs contrary to most understandings of Chinese-NK relations. Chinese goals seem to clearly be maintenance of the status quo.

 

[EagleKeeper]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

Ok, closer to 2 years ago.

Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea'

South Korea's vice-foreign minister said he was told by two named senior Chinese officials that they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.

At this point it is more like China may be looking at the lessor of two evils.
Also, this was before the transition of power in NK.

China may also be telling officials what the officials want to hear vs the actual truth; Couch the words in such a way that one hears what the desire; no matter from which end.

 

[fskimospy]

At this point it is more like China may be looking at the lessor of two evils.
Also, this was before the transition of power in NK.

China may also be telling officials what the officials want to hear vs the actual truth; Couch the words in such a way that one hears what the desire; no matter from which end.

I have seen no evidence in Chinese actions that such a thing is likely to take place. China fears a refugee crisis in the case of north Korean collapse and in that case I definitely see them choosing SK over chaos. Preferring SK to what is presently there though? I don't see it.

 

[sunzt]

Where are you getting this information from? This runs contrary to most understandings of Chinese-NK relations. Chinese goals seem to clearly be maintenance of the status quo.

This aint the cold war anymore. NK is more a liability than any useful buffer zone. I mean, maybe back in the 1950's having a large land region between bitter cold war rivals was useful, but with the development of technology, it's not as useful. Plus, economic situation between all parties have changed dramatically. China wants stability, not necessarily status quo. If NK falls then that means opportunity and $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for Chinese businesses.

 

[sunzt]

I have seen no evidence in Chinese actions that such a thing is likely to take place. China fears a refugee crisis in the case of north Korean collapse and in that case I definitely see them choosing SK over chaos. Preferring SK to what is presently there though? I don't see it.

While some Chinese officials are reported to have dismissed suggestions that North Korea would implode after Kim's death, another cable offers evidence that Beijing has considered the risk of instability.

It quoted a representative from an international agency saying Chinese officials believed they could absorb 300,000 North Koreans without outside help. If they arrived "all at once" it might use the military to seal the border, create a holding area and meet humanitarian needs. It might also ask other countries for help.

The context of the discussions was not made explicit, although an influx of that scale would only be likely in the event of regime failure. The representative said he was not aware of any contingency planning to deal with large numbers of refugees.

A Seoul embassy cable from January 2009 said China's leader, Hu Jintao, deliberately ducked the issue when the South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, raised it at a summit.

"We understand Lee asked Hu what China thought about the North Korean domestic political situation and whether Beijing had any contingency plans. This time, Hu apparently pretended not to hear Lee," it said. The cable does not indicate the source of the reports, although elsewhere it talks about contacts at the presidential "blue house" in South Korea.

Obviously, they put some serious thought into how to handle such a situation......

 

[EagleKeeper]

I have seen no evidence in Chinese actions that such a thing is likely to take place. China fears a refugee crisis in the case of north Korean collapse and in that case I definitely see them choosing SK over chaos. Preferring SK to what is presently there though? I don't see it.

We can see eye to eye :thumbsup:

Having 1M NK civilians running away from a fight in the southern part of the country over the border in to China is not desired.

However, having a non-communist capitalistic power on their border as a US proxy is scary for them also.

so keeping NK stabilized is a forward looking goal

 

[EagleKeeper]

This aint the cold war anymore. NK is more a liability than any useful buffer zone. I mean, maybe back in the 1950's having a large land region between bitter cold war rivals was useful, but with the development of technology, it's not as useful. Plus, economic situation between all parties have changed dramatically. China wants stability, not necessarily status quo. If NK falls then that means opportunity and $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for Chinese businesses.

If NK rolls over, such that the population is not scared and will stay put; China can accpet that if they have to.

If NK has a fight and refugees start streaming northward; that becomes a problem that China does not want. the border provinces are not wealthy and unable to absorb a large NK population influx.

It quoted a representative from an international agency saying Chinese officials believed they could absorb 300,000 North Koreans without outside help. If they arrived "all at once" it might use the military to seal the border, create a holding area and meet humanitarian needs. It might also ask other countries for help.

Obviously, they put some serious thought into how to handle such a situation......

As soon as the military gets there, seal the border and create refugee camps until the political situation stabilizes; then send them back.