China's Economy going down

[LegendKiller]

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/...-last-pillar.html#more

I've said the same thing for the last 2 years re: China. They need us, and the world, more than we need them. Cheap shit can be made anywhere, india, africa, SA. However, markets for cheap shit are limited, especially on a large enough scale to make huge profit.

This is why China will keep funding the US. Allowing a catastrophic decline in business around the world would destroy China. Above anything, the rulers of China fear a revolution driven by economic strife, so they've been trying to create a middle class and a consumer economy to fend off this type of scenario. Had they been given 5-10 more years, they'd have succeeded. However, now they're screwed.

 

[JSt0rm]

they could give me a couple thousand and I'm sure some of it would come back to them. Although I do have a taste for Japanese denim.

 

[bamacre]

They are joining our club?

 

[Genx87]

I can tell they are going in the shitter because a rollover fund I have has lost 50% of its value in the last 8 months. Erasing out the the 50% appreciation over the previous 18 months and then some.

It should be interesting to see how exporting countries like Germany and China fair compared to importing countries like the United States.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: bamacre
They are joining our club?

as you can see in the analysis, which I have stated many times, they will go down faster and farther than we will. Why? Because they are more or less *ONLY* and export economy. Their endogenous wealth is limited, they have no significant middle to upper-middle class to support a significant part of their economy through spending what is made. They only have a lower class working for .50 a day, or an upper class (political elite managing state-owned factories, or political elite managing self owned assets). The upper class won't buy chinese shit by and large in enough bulk to keep the economy going.

This is very similar to what will happen to the ME once oil is gone. Upper class will just leave, they are even worse in that they aren't even trying to make a middle class, they don't give a shit about their people. They merely want palaces, western stores and property, and cars.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I can tell they are going in the shitter because a rollover fund I have has lost 50% of its value in the last 8 months. Erasing out the the 50% appreciation over the previous 18 months and then some.

It should be interesting to see how exporting countries like Germany and China fair compared to importing countries like the United States.

Wasn't it obvious last year when you saw the currency lag? For a while the dollar was weak while everyone else was strong. Then when shit really hit the fan theirs became weak and now the dollar is very strong. That implies that they are dependent on us more than we are of them. Nobody is happy when the American consumer isn't happy. This just goes to show that countries that have an export policy (and spend less time working on their domestic consumption) for GDP growth will be the first and hardest hit.

EDIT: LK beat me to it.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: Genx87
I can tell they are going in the shitter because a rollover fund I have has lost 50% of its value in the last 8 months. Erasing out the the 50% appreciation over the previous 18 months and then some.

It should be interesting to see how exporting countries like Germany and China fair compared to importing countries like the United States.

Wasn't it obvious last year when you saw the currency lag? For a while the dollar was weak while everyone else was strong. Then when shit really hit the fan theirs became weak and now the dollar is very strong. That implies that they are dependent on us more than we are of them. Nobody is happy when the American consumer isn't happy. This just goes to show that countries that have an export policy (and spend less time working on their domestic consumption) for GDP growth will be the first and hardest hit.

I laughed at the morons who were still parroting "decoupling/delinking" in early 2008. If the US catches a cold, the world catches drug resistant TB.

 

[alien42]

they should build more ginormous dams and export the extra power.

 

[Jaskalas]

China is too big to fail, and it would devastate our economy, so clearly the Federal Reserve and the treasury should start printing cash and hand it over to them.

 

[Zebo]

What do you mean 'going'? Other than the coasts and economic cities China is an apartheid state with 90% in rural poverty. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H...%27s_Republic_of_China

 

[JS80]

Good article. Maybe they should fucking use their dollar reserve and put it to fucking work instead of sitting on it like typical cheap person. That's what trade is, a promise to consume the counterparty good. Maybe China will bring us out of a recession haha...

 

[Zebo]

dp

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: Genx87
I can tell they are going in the shitter because a rollover fund I have has lost 50% of its value in the last 8 months. Erasing out the the 50% appreciation over the previous 18 months and then some.

It should be interesting to see how exporting countries like Germany and China fair compared to importing countries like the United States.

Wasn't it obvious last year when you saw the currency lag? For a while the dollar was weak while everyone else was strong. Then when shit really hit the fan theirs became weak and now the dollar is very strong. That implies that they are dependent on us more than we are of them. Nobody is happy when the American consumer isn't happy. This just goes to show that countries that have an export policy (and spend less time working on their domestic consumption) for GDP growth will be the first and hardest hit.

I laughed at the morons who were still parroting "decoupling/delinking" in early 2008. If the US catches a cold, the world catches drug resistant TB.

That's the problem with economics; too many fads. Furthermore, a lot of these Asian countries like to follow the Japanese model of 'export, export, export'. Decoupling is impossible with that model.

 

[Zebo]

No the problem with economics is Friedman and Keynes can both win a Nobel prize.

 

[shira]

I'm confused. Just three or four weeks ago, I was reading that the Chinese economy would grow by "only" 7% this year, which would be barely enough to sustain the 10-million-a-year job growth they needed to stave off a recession.

And now this article is saying the Chinese economy will SHRINK, by MORE than 5%?

What's changed so dramatically in world economy the past few weeks to cause this huge revision in the projection?

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: shira
I'm confused. Just three or four weeks ago, I was reading that the Chinese economy would grow by "only" 7% this year, which would be barely enough to sustain the 10-million-a-year job growth they needed to stave off a recession.

And now this article is saying the Chinese economy will SHRINK, by MORE than 5%?

What's changed so dramatically in world economy the past few weeks to cause this huge revision in the projection?

Keep in mind that those are "official" Chinese numbers. No one knows what's really what in China.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: shira
I'm confused. Just three or four weeks ago, I was reading that the Chinese economy would grow by "only" 7% this year, which would be barely enough to sustain the 10-million-a-year job growth they needed to stave off a recession.

And now this article is saying the Chinese economy will SHRINK, by MORE than 5%?

What's changed so dramatically in world economy the past few weeks to cause this huge revision in the projection?

The article says "If GDP in the US, EU, and Japan contract at 5% this year, China's economy is very likely to shrink faster." It doesn't offer any fact or figure on how much Chinese economy is gonna grow or shrink.

According to Economist, China economy will grow by 8% in 2009 and 7.5% in 2010.

Their run a government budget surplus. They have a huge foreign reserve. They are in a much better position than US to spent on infrastructures or provide economy stimulus.

So yeah, as usual there are lots of Chinese haters here who don't wanna look at fact or real analysis.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: shira
I'm confused. Just three or four weeks ago, I was reading that the Chinese economy would grow by "only" 7% this year, which would be barely enough to sustain the 10-million-a-year job growth they needed to stave off a recession.

And now this article is saying the Chinese economy will SHRINK, by MORE than 5%?

What's changed so dramatically in world economy the past few weeks to cause this huge revision in the projection?

The article says "If GDP in the US, EU, and Japan contract at 5% this year, China's economy is very likely to shrink faster." It doesn't offer any fact or figure on how much Chinese economy is gonna grow or shrink.

According to Economist, China economy will grow by 8% in 2009 and 7.5% in 2010.

Their run a government budget surplus. They have a huge foreign reserve. They are in a much better position than US to spent on infrastructures or provide economy stimulus.

So yeah, as usual there are lots of Chinese haters here who don't wanna look at fact or real analysis.

lol you sound like the communist party propagandist

or like the Iraqi Information Minister.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas
China is too big to fail, and it would devastate our economy, so clearly the Federal Reserve and the treasury should start printing cash and hand it over to them.

LOL 🙂

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: shira
I'm confused. Just three or four weeks ago, I was reading that the Chinese economy would grow by "only" 7% this year, which would be barely enough to sustain the 10-million-a-year job growth they needed to stave off a recession.

And now this article is saying the Chinese economy will SHRINK, by MORE than 5%?

What's changed so dramatically in world economy the past few weeks to cause this huge revision in the projection?

The article says "If GDP in the US, EU, and Japan contract at 5% this year, China's economy is very likely to shrink faster." It doesn't offer any fact or figure on how much Chinese economy is gonna grow or shrink.

According to Economist, China economy will grow by 8% in 2009 and 7.5% in 2010.

Their run a government budget surplus. They have a huge foreign reserve. They are in a much better position than US to spent on infrastructures or provide economy stimulus.

So yeah, as usual there are lots of Chinese haters here who don't wanna look at fact or real analysis.

lol you sound like the communist party propagandist

or like the Iraqi Information Minister.

I cited economist, what do you based ur info on? Maybe you are the one sounding like the Iraqi information minister for the great US of A.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: shira
I'm confused. Just three or four weeks ago, I was reading that the Chinese economy would grow by "only" 7% this year, which would be barely enough to sustain the 10-million-a-year job growth they needed to stave off a recession.

And now this article is saying the Chinese economy will SHRINK, by MORE than 5%?

What's changed so dramatically in world economy the past few weeks to cause this huge revision in the projection?

The article says "If GDP in the US, EU, and Japan contract at 5% this year, China's economy is very likely to shrink faster." It doesn't offer any fact or figure on how much Chinese economy is gonna grow or shrink.

According to Economist, China economy will grow by 8% in 2009 and 7.5% in 2010.

Their run a government budget surplus. They have a huge foreign reserve. They are in a much better position than US to spent on infrastructures or provide economy stimulus.

So yeah, as usual there are lots of Chinese haters here who don't wanna look at fact or real analysis.

The Chinese government is cheap. Case in point: Chinese citizens have to pay retail prices for healthcare. If you don't pay, you don't get treated.

 

[SSSnail]

And I have agreed with you on more than one occasion regarding this issue.

 

[Ozoned]

Economic warfare.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: shira
I'm confused. Just three or four weeks ago, I was reading that the Chinese economy would grow by "only" 7% this year, which would be barely enough to sustain the 10-million-a-year job growth they needed to stave off a recession.

And now this article is saying the Chinese economy will SHRINK, by MORE than 5%?

What's changed so dramatically in world economy the past few weeks to cause this huge revision in the projection?

The article says "If GDP in the US, EU, and Japan contract at 5% this year, China's economy is very likely to shrink faster." It doesn't offer any fact or figure on how much Chinese economy is gonna grow or shrink.

According to Economist, China economy will grow by 8% in 2009 and 7.5% in 2010.

Their run a government budget surplus. They have a huge foreign reserve. They are in a much better position than US to spent on infrastructures or provide economy stimulus.

So yeah, as usual there are lots of Chinese haters here who don't wanna look at fact or real analysis.

lol you sound like the communist party propagandist

or like the Iraqi Information Minister.

I cited economist, what do you based ur info on? Maybe you are the one sounding like the Iraqi information minister for the great US of A.

That economist forecast was as of October of last year. A lot has changed since then, especially with the decoupling theories being thrown around. And back then they weren't forecasting -5% GDP from US, EU and JAP.

 

[StinkyPinky]

Give me a slower growing but more stable and diverse western economy any day of the week. Lots of these "asian tigers" have all their eggs in the export basket, and when the major western countries have a rough time and their people don't want to buy as much...it hits them harder than it hits us.