Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: halik
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: Vic
This is bad, not good. The dollar will devalue further, increasing inflation and raising interest rates. T-bonds took a dump today... the 10 year is off 30/32nds. That has a nearly direct correlation with mortgage rates -- they just went up more than an 1/8th in rate today. And the Fed is certain to raise the discount rate again, and that will have a direct effect on consumer loan rates. A lot more going on here than just your precious Wal-Mart, people.
BINGO.
Several articles that I've read (including the one that I quoted above) hint at the same things Vic. Seems that this could hurt the US far more than it would ever help (even the trade deficit will be hurt).
how will the trade deficit be hurt? Depreciation of dollar in terms of yuan means higheer exports TO china (our good are relatively cheaper) and lower imports FROM china (their stuff is getting more expensive)
As far as gas prices go, welcome to the global marketplace. Us has rediculously cheap gas in comparison to europe and rest of the world. And it's not the dollar weakening that makes it rise, but global demand (especially from china).
<- econ major, currently working on wall st.
Oil prices directly effect the trade deficit as oil is imported. It is probably the largest portion of our trade deficit. Oil goes up, so goes the trade deficit.
If US consumers don't slow down on the pace of Chinese goods, even at higher prices, so goes the trade deficit.
I can't really think that China is going to buy more US goods and services because of a better price as we can't compete with anything that they produce now because of the labor rate.
China will have increased purchasing power for oil. Oil is priced in US dollars. Increased purchasing by China will drive oil prices up. Also, as Vic said, the lowered value of the dollar has hurt the OPEC countries/traders and a big part of the current price of oil is reflected in this "upping" of oil prices to offset the weaker dollar (OPEC/traders aren't going to lose money).
I see it the way Vic and many others see it....it won't increase our exporting much, won't slow our importing much, will cause higher trade deficits because of higher oil prices, will hit us with higher interest rates to attract foreign investment in our government (budget deficit).
I really can't see how we would win in this situtation, but time will tell.