China condemns western credit ratings agencies

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
And China is entirely right. Who in their right minds would allow the free market to basically regulate itself. The entire economy is a fraud and farce. Until we have transparency and end these conflicts of interest, the 'AAA' ratings these agencies give out are worthless.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5632a0b8-94b7-11df-b90e-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss

China rating agency condemns rivals

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

The head of China’s largest credit rating agency has slammed his western counterparts for causing the global financial crisis and said that as the world’s largest creditor nation China should have a bigger say in how governments and their debt are rated.

“The western rating agencies are politicised and highly ideological and they do not adhere to objective standards,” Guan Jianzhong, chairman of Dagong Global Credit Rating, told the Financial Times in an interview. “China is the biggest creditor nation in the world and with the rise and national rejuvenation of China we should have our say in how the credit risks of states are judged.”

On the corporate side, Mr Guan argues Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings – the three companies that dominate the global credit rating industry – have become too close to the clients they are supposed to be objectively assessing.

He specifically criticised the practice of “rating shopping” by companies who offer their business to the agency that provides the most favourable rating.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis “rating shopping” has been one of the key complaints from western regulators , who have heavily criticised the big three agencies for handing top ratings to mortgage-linked securities that turned toxic when the US housing market collapsed in 2007.

“The financial crisis was caused because rating agencies didn’t properly disclose risk and this brought the entire US financial system to the verge of collapse, causing huge damage to the US and its strategic interests,” Mr Guan said.

Recently, the rating agencies have been criticised for being too slow to downgrade some of the heavily indebted peripheral eurozone economies, most notably Spain, which still holds triple A ratings from Moody’s.

There is also a view among many investors that the agencies would shy away from withdrawing triple A ratings to countries such as the US and UK because of the political pressure that would bear down on them in the event of such actions.

Last week, privately-owned Dagong published its own sovereign credit ranking in what it said was a first for a non-western credit rating agency.

The results were very different from those published by Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, with China ranking higher than the United States, Britain, Japan, France and most other major economies, reflecting Dagong’s belief that China is more politically and economically stable than all of these countries.

Mr Guan said his company’s methodology has been developed over the last five years and reflects a more objective assessment of a government’s fiscal position, ability to govern, economic power, foreign reserves, debt burden and ability to create future wealth.

“The US is insolvent and faces bankruptcy as a pure debtor nation but the rating agencies still give it high rankings ,” Mr Guan said. “Actually, the huge military expenditure of the US is not created by themselves but comes from borrowed money, which is not sustainable.”

A wildly enthusiastic editorial published by Xinhua , China’s official state newswire, lauded Dagong’s report as a significant step toward breaking the monopoly of western rating agencies of which it said China has long been a “victim”.

“Compared with the US’ conquest of the world by means of force, Moody’s has controlled the world through its dominance in credit ratings,” the editorial said.

First established in 1994, Dagong signed a three-year “technology co-operation” agreement in 1999 with Moody’s, which provided the Chinese company with its “core knowledge” and its first “systemic understanding”, according to Mr Guan.

In fact, Dagong is more similar to its three global competitors than it might like to admit.

Dagong’s share of China’s fledgling credit rating market is around 25 per cent, while subsidiaries of the big three global agencies control most of the rest.

Dagong’s next goal is to break into the international market, starting with the US.

But even if the company can overcome reluctance from US regulators it may have a hard time convincing international clients that it is more objective than its western peers, especially considering the overtly nationalistic tone it strikes at home.
 
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MotF Bane

No Lifer
Dec 22, 2006
60,801
10
0
So now we're taking Chinese propaganda pieces from a completely totalitarian state and presenting it as an accurate condemnation of the entire supposed free market system. Wow, Jokus, just wow.
 

nonlnear

Platinum Member
Jan 31, 2008
2,497
0
76
Yes it's a propaganda piece from China, but they happen to be right. I've said it before and I'll say it again. There will never be transparency or integrity in the ratings agencies as long as they are subsidized by the regulatory structure that feeds them billions of dollars. What's funny is that Obama and the Dems are posing as enemies of the big bad corporations with their financial bill, but they are taking great pains to guarantee that the billion dollar pigsty of corruption remains intact - albeit with a little lipstick here and there.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
So now we're taking Chinese propaganda pieces from a completely totalitarian state and presenting it as an accurate condemnation of the entire supposed free market system. Wow, Jokus, just wow.

It's definitely Chinese propaganda, but there isn't a word of it WRT U.S. credit rating agencies that isn't true. Consistently rating securities AAA and then watching them blow up mere weeks/months later quite simply speaks for itself; it's poor research and just downright false information, knowingly or not.
 

MotF Bane

No Lifer
Dec 22, 2006
60,801
10
0
Yes it's a propaganda piece from China, but they happen to be right. I've said it before and I'll say it again. There will never be transparency or integrity in the ratings agencies as long as they are subsidized by the regulatory structure that feeds them billions of dollars. What's funny is that Obama and the Dems are posing as enemies of the big bad corporations with their financial bill, but they are taking great pains to guarantee that the billion dollar pigsty of corruption remains intact - albeit with a little lipstick here and there.

No no no, it's the EVIL FREE MARKET!!!
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
So now we're taking Chinese propaganda pieces from a completely totalitarian state and presenting it as an accurate condemnation of the entire supposed free market system. Wow, Jokus, just wow.

You're an idiot if you don't think China is right. The credit ratings agencies have a direct conflict of interest. They bill the corporations they rate, instead of the investors.
 

nonlnear

Platinum Member
Jan 31, 2008
2,497
0
76
No no no, it's the EVIL FREE MARKET!!!
The sad part is there are millions of people who believe that the dysfunctional bond rating agencies that helped fuel the credit bubble are examples of how a "free market" works (to use a term whose meaning is so strung out by propaganda from both sides that I shudder to use it without quotes). The public perception of key institutions of our economy is so deeply propagandized from both sides that it's hard to tell fact from farce.
 

Phokus

Lifer
Nov 20, 1999
22,994
779
126
The sad part is there are millions of people who believe that the dysfunctional bond rating agencies that helped fuel the credit bubble are examples of how a "free market" works (to use a term whose meaning is so strung out by propaganda from both sides that I shudder to use it without quotes). The public perception of key institutions of our economy is so deeply propagandized from both sides that it's hard to tell fact from farce.

S&P, Fitch, and Moody's accounts for something like 95% of credit ratings business in the states, yet there are smaller ratings agencies. The big 3 have made plenty of mistakes in the past (Enron was given an 'investment grade' rating days before their collapse) and their conflict of interest is well know, yet, none of the smaller ratings agencies can take market share away from them. This has nothing to do with regulation and everything to do with direct conflicts of interests and the fact that the barriers to becoming successful are all due to reputation (which amazingly never seems to get tarnished every time they screw up). Ratings agencies are paid by the corporations they rate and not by the shareholders, THAT is the problem.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
What a great topic for exposing the ideologues for whom everything one 'side' says is a lie no matter what it is, versus those who are not so ideological.

Not everything the USSR said was a lie. Many of their claims, for example, such as the US flying regularly to violate their airspace to try to improve the odds of success of a nuclear first strike by mapping their radar, which the US denied, or many covert activities in other countries, or many times they claimed the US was claiming USSR involvement as a cover for a response when there was none, the USSR was right.

And sometimes, China is right.

This doesn't take away from their wrongs - the USSR's lies were countless, for example, Stalin's infamous execution of thousands of captive Polish officers and saying Hitler did it (which by our right-wing ideologues logic, if you were to contradict Stalin, would mean you are supporting Hitler), but they can be right, and we can be wrong.

Our credit ratings agencies have had huge problems and been a great example of the sort of corruption that happens in an under-regulated system that serves a few.

It's predictable for the right-wing ideologues to protest the *enforcement* of a real free market against this corruption, by claiming that the corruption is the 'free market'.

They are just clueless. The liberals who oppose the corruption and would use regulation to create barriers so the ratings agencies are less corrupted are on the right track.

And in this case, that's not just liberals, but others who have a clue as well.
 

PeshakJang

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2010
2,276
0
0
They are just clueless. The liberals who oppose the corruption and would use regulation to create barriers so the ratings agencies are less corrupted are on the right track.

And in this case, that's not just liberals, but others who have a clue as well.

Like the liberals that just caused the $1.4 trillion public bond industry (credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, student loans, etc) to come to a screeching halt? I'll bet that is good for the economy.

Yeah, they are just as clueless as you.
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
Like the liberals that just caused the $1.4 trillion public bond industry (credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, student loans, etc) to come to a screeching halt? I'll bet that is good for the economy.

Yeah, they are just as clueless as you.

What did the liberals do specifically that stifled the public bond industry?
 

tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
1,130
0
0
China gathered a significant portion of this wealth by manipulating it's currency and, as such, also has played a big role in the financial mess of the last few years.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,845
6,382
126
Just another Sign on the road to China Economic domination. The guy is 100% correct. Ideology is Fail, outside of Academic discussion. To run a Nation or Institution you need to use Pragmatism and what has Proven to work. Not Ideological mantra.

Ideology is the Scientific equivalent of Postulation. An Idea someone puts forth concerning some Issue. Then that Postulation is Tested where it either proves to have Merit or it doesn't. If it doesn't, you drop it. If it does, you utilize it until a time it no longer works. Ideologues skip the Testing and go straight to Utilization, ignoring the Failures at their peril.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
S&P, Fitch, and Moody's accounts for something like 95% of credit ratings business in the states, yet there are smaller ratings agencies. The big 3 have made plenty of mistakes in the past (Enron was given an 'investment grade' rating days before their collapse) and their conflict of interest is well know, yet, none of the smaller ratings agencies can take market share away from them. This has nothing to do with regulation and everything to do with direct conflicts of interests and the fact that the barriers to becoming successful are all due to reputation (which amazingly never seems to get tarnished every time they screw up). Ratings agencies are paid by the corporations they rate and not by the shareholders, THAT is the problem.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=30147612&postcount=56
Can Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway come out and give AAA ratings to companies like Johnson&Johnson and "junk" status to companies he would avoid eventhough his company has successfully managed/predicted the boom and bust cycles the past 40+ years? Nope, the government(SEC) wouldn't allow that. Another example of monopoly created by the government.

The "Big Three" have that large a market share because they were sponsored by the government for a longtime(3+ decades). It wasn't until 2003 that the SEC started increasing the number of rating agencies.

Conclusion:
Read what I posted in the link, and click the link in that link.
Anyone who buys a security issue based solely on rating agencies without doing their own due diligence is pretty much an idiot, plain and simple. I invested in AmeriCredit even when they were rated 2 grades below "junk" status and got a 350+% return. People lost money in AIG even when they were rated AAA by these same rating companies.
 
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bfdd

Lifer
Feb 3, 2007
13,312
1
0
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=30147612&postcount=56
Can Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway come out and give AAA ratings to companies like Johnson&Johnson and "junk" status to companies he would avoid eventhough his company has successfully managed/predicted the boom and bust cycles the past 40+ years? Nope, the government(SEC) wouldn't allow that. Another example of monopoly created by the government.

The "Big Three" have that large a market share because they were sponsored by the government for a longtime(3+ decades). It wasn't until 2003 that the SEC started increasing the number of rating agencies.

Conclusion:
Read what I posted in the link, and click the link in that link.
Anyone who buys a security issue based solely on rating agencies without doing their own due diligence is pretty much an idiot, plain and simple. I invested in AmeriCredit even when they were rated 2 grades below "junk" status and got a 350+% return. People lost money in AIG even when they were rated AAA by these same rating companies.

you got a 350+% return? sounds like you need to start giving some investment advice.
 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,577
432
126
Apparently there were analysts at Moody's who wanted to downgrade some companies but were overruled because those companies had influence and interests in Moody's itself (a publicly traded company).

Of course this is a Chinese prop piece, but it actually wouldn't hurt to have some more competition in the ratings sector. Problem comes down to money, though - the big brains follow it, and they're not going to take a high five or low six figure salary at S & P when they could make a mid seven figure salary at Goldman Sachs...
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
I have a question for people who are deriding the rating agencies...


What is the probability of default for a AAA bond and what has the default history been for them in the last 100 years vs all AAA rated bonds.

Moreover, what number of issues were AAA in the last 20 years that defaulted?


Moreover, what number of issues outside of MBS (C OR R) in the last 10 years have defaulted?
 

PeshakJang

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2010
2,276
0
0
What did the liberals do specifically that stifled the public bond industry?

In their effort to "reform" Wall Street, they basically made it a law that ratings agencies need to include a signed statement certifying their rating, and if they are wrong, it's their ass, and they could be liable.

Their solution, obviously, was to stop rating bonds.

What I assume will happen, after this short-term cessation of issuance, is that they will first find a way to mitigate their liability, and then start rating bonds generally lower than they would have in the past, since they don't want to be liable if it turns out they were wrong. The result being that people, corporations, governments on all levels, anybody that wants to borrow money, will be paying higher rates to do so.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
The larger NRSROs have also been criticized for their reliance on an "issuer-pays" business model, in which the bulk of their revenue comes from the issuers of the bonds being rated. While this is recognized by regulators as a potential conflict of interest (since the bond issuer paying for the rating has an incentive to seek out the CRA most likely to give it a high rating, possibly creating a "race-to-the-bottom" in terms of rating quality), the larger NRSROs claim that the issuer-pays model is the only feasible model for them. This is because, in an age of email and faxes, the ratings of the larger CRAs are so widely and so quickly shared that a subscription-based model would not be profitable.[2] Furthermore, the larger CRAs often receive non-public information from issuers and, under the SEC's Regulation FD, a CRA may only use such information if their ratings are made available to the public for free.


However, some smaller CRAs, including Egan-Jones, rely on a subscription-based business model where the ratings are not made public but are available only to subscribers. These firms argue that such a business model makes them less reliant on the good will of the issuers they rate, thereby eliminating one major potential conflict of interest
Subscription based models work for small rating agencies which don't have time nor the capability to research millions of security issues on the market.
Subscription won't work for Moody's, Standard & Poors, and Fitch unless you want them to rate less security issues, which leads to even less information for investors.

Of the 10 nationally approved rating agencies (or Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations),
2 are in Japan(lol?).
1 does only insurance companies and nothing else.
3 have no information about who they are, or what they do in Wikipedia.
Of the remaining that are not part of the "Big Three", LACE issues ratings on mostly credit unions and banks, with only 1,000 corporate issues represented in the "other" category(meaning company is not a credit union or a bank), and Egan-Jones Rating company only rates 2,000 issues worldwide.

Who are the(in my book based of what I've seen, but I'm no "financial guru") rating agencies for non-financial institutions security issues?
Moody's, Standard & Poors, Fitch, Dominion Bond Rating Service(which was only approved in 2003 while the others were able to gobble up market share for 3+ decades), and Egan-Jones Rating company(approved in 2007).

I can't blame Moody's, S&P, and Fitch for the position that they are. It's not their fault.
The blame should lie clearly on the SEC(I'm not saying I know a better way than they do of solving this problem...if it's even considered a problem at all which it does not seem to be) which haven't found an effective mechanism yet.

Anyone who claims Moody's, Standard & Poors, and Fitch to be corrupt, etc... because they don't follow subscription based models is an idiot.
Similarly, anyone who believes this Chinese propaganda piece is also an idiot as well.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
In their effort to "reform" Wall Street, they basically made it a law that ratings agencies need to include a signed statement certifying their rating, and if they are wrong, it's their ass, and they could be liable.

Their solution, obviously, was to stop rating bonds.

What I assume will happen, after this short-term cessation of issuance, is that they will first find a way to mitigate their liability, and then start rating bonds generally lower than they would have in the past, since they don't want to be liable if it turns out they were wrong. The result being that people, corporations, governments on all levels, anybody that wants to borrow money, will be paying higher rates to do so.

They haven't stopped rating bonds.

I spoke to ratings analysts (S&P, M, F) today about a deal. They rate dozens of deals per week in my sector.

I mean, come on now, let's not follow China's example and get all hyperbolic.


Personally, I see the issue right now as an offloading of the "prudent man" theory onto the rating agencies as the single biggest problem.

The people who bought these issues weren't idiots. They weren't poorly paid fools. They aren't somebody with a high school education or a GED. They were highly paid, highly educated, and certainly "qualified institutional buyers" of credit bonds.

I took a look at the simple math behind synthetic CDOs and laughed my ass off. I looked at subprime RMBS with 5% overcollateralization and laughed harder, especially those with liar loans.

To blame the rating agencies is to miss the single most important aspect of this credit crunch. Personal responsibility.
 
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