`Chatter' hints of strike on Iran's nuclear sites

[imported_Aelius]

If the US doesn't do it Israel will.

The $64,000 question is which would be best for everyone?

My guess is that if the US strikes there's little impact with the Iranian hard liners in charge of that country that isn't already there. Or at least that's what we are being lead to belieave from newsources.

If Israel attacked then there might be another major war and the US would be dragged into it. There's no question about that.

It's a catch 22 with the only other option being is do nothing, which is a big question mark. Nobody can predict the future and say for certain what a nation like Iran would do if they had nukes. Intention to use them is not the same as using them. Russia is a prime example of that.

Otherwise most nuclear nations would be considered corrupt regimes willing to do just about anything to further their nationalistic goals.... ummm scratch that.

I forgot that the US bankrupted Russia using fake money in the 80s. Maybe they will do it again?

 

[Aimster]

Iran will use Hezbollah to attack Israel. Israel will attack Hezbollah. Syria will be involved in Lebanon. Iran will attack Israel and possibly U.S forces or Iraq.

Good future for all of us.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Aelius
If Israel attacked then there might be another major war and the US would be dragged into it. There's no question about that.

I have a hard time seeing a scenario where a plausibe coalition of Arab allies and Iran would have a chance against Israel's conventional forces. You'd better describe it to me. Unless you are suggesting that Iran would only attack Iraq if it was Israel rather than the US who committed the strike.

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: Aelius
If Israel attacked then there might be another major war and the US would be dragged into it. There's no question about that.

I have a hard time seeing a scenario where a plausibe coalition of Arab allies and Iran would have a chance against Israel's conventional forces. You'd better describe it to me. Unless you are suggesting that Iran would only attack Iraq if it was Israel rather than the US who committed the strike.

First off Arabs would not join in the war. If they did a lot of Arab countries have top of the line U.S aircraft and tanks. However no Arab country will join this war. Syria, Maybe.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Iran will use Hezbollah to attack Israel. Israel will attack Hezbollah. Syria will be involved in Lebanon. Iran will attack Israel and possibly U.S forces or Iraq.

Good future for all of us.

One point worth noting is that Iran's ability to directly attack Israel or project force in the area is extremely weak. Syria would need to be extremely careful about supporting Lebenon today because they are massively outclassed by Israel's conventional military. Israel would also have the option of launching large scale retaliatory strikes against Syrian sites in order to persuade them to stop directly supporting Lebenon. While Iran might be able to increase its support of Hezbollah, there a probably limits to what it can pull off given current strategic realities.

 

[jpeyton]

Syria has a chance to enter such a war while the elder Qaddafi is still in power. If his son takes over anytime soon, that might change.

Iraq is a big juicy steak that Iran would love to take a bite of. The oil, the established Shiite majority, the security in shambles......they just need a solid excuse, and I would think pre-emptive hostilities from America would be a good one.

 

[Aimster]

Israel attacks Iran using aircraft. Iran attacks Israel with missles. Any other way they can go at it without U.S support?

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Aimster
First off Arabs would not join in the war. If they did a lot of Arab countries have top of the line U.S aircraft and tanks. However no Arab country will join this war. Syria, Maybe.

Out of the list of Arab countries that could even remotely plausibly get involved in this scenario, most of them lack truly top of the line US aircraft and tanks. What they have is old models of the F-16, but they currently lack AMRAAM missile and their older Sidewinder missiles are massively outclassed by Israel's new Python 5 Missile.
http://www.israeli-weapons.com...es/python/Python5.html

Their tanks are inferior versions of the M1-A1 that lack DU amuntion and perhaps most noticibly have inferior armor to US models. When you look at what Israel has in comparison, there are major differences.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Israel attacks Iran using aircraft. Iran attacks Israel with missles. Any other way they can go at it without U.S support?

Are you talking about Israel? Israel also has 3 almost brand new Dolphin Class Submarines that are believed to be armed with cruise missiles. These Submarines do have the range to hit Iran by moving next to Iran through the Persian Gulf before firing their missiles.
http://www.israeli-weapons.com...l/dolphin/Dolphin.html

While the cruise missile the Submarine can use is believed to include nuclear tipped ones, they also have conventional cruise missiles that can be utilized in strikes against Iranian targets. Admitedly the damage the Subs can do with these strikes by themself is limited. These Submarines could also be utilized to attack Iranian shipping, but this is extremely unlikely to actually occur. The subs are also capable on inserting small numbers of Israeli special forces into Iran, but the damage these forces could do is almost certainly not worth the risks involved with such an operation.

 

[Spencer278]

There will not be an all out war in the Middle east. All the countries there saw how quickly we kicked sadam army ass. All the arab countries will do is turn Iraq into one gaint plasitine like confiltic.

 

[glugglug]

At best, Iran will be another quagmire. Bush can't go very much longer without starting WWIII.

 

[nageov3t]

this same "chatter" that's had all the streets around my office blocked off since July, thus forcing me to pay $200/month for parking?

fvck it.

 

[0marTheZealot]

I wonder what would happen if the Arab countries grew a spine and ceased exports to the US. We'd be plunged into a fairly bad recession.

An attack on Iran doesn't seem likely. Generally, half of a country's exports get out during War (oil). As it stands, the world has <1 million barrels of spare capacity. The removal of 3 million barrels from the market would be devastating to world oil prices. We might have to end up using the D word (depression).

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
I wonder what would happen if the Arab countries grew a spine and ceased exports to the US. We'd be plunged into a fairly bad recession.

ah, but so would they.

 

[0marTheZealot]

Spite politics goes a long way. Plus, there are other buyers of oil around the world. And the price shootup would slightly make up for the cessation of exports.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: conjur
Why do I have the feeling Bush is reliving his cheerleader days? This time, however, he's chanting PNAC! PNAC! PNAC!

Reading the first couple paragraphs obviates the need for a better source. If something like this were planned, it would be highly classified, hardly something that would make it into the news as the 'hallway buzz.' Whoever wrote it is smoking something, or we're about to have a huge crackdown on these people who are disclosing classified information, which is equivalent to espionage.

Originally posted by: jpeyton
I have this strange feeling that Iran will retaliate on any pre-emptive American strike on its nuclear facilities by invading Iraq.

I doubt any nation on this earth would face our military when we're in a defensive posture. They better start the draft now if they want to pull that off.

Originally posted by: dahunan
Also ask your president why he let North Korea grow so strong

How would you have handled NK?

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
The US wouldnt do a strike like that unless we move most of our carriers, our B52 fleet and our subs into the region...that way if Iran tried anything it would be scorched earth time for their soldiers....

WWIII - in progress

It depends on the time frame of the attack. If we had sudden need, it would likely be carried out from right here in Missouri. The B-2's are stationed here and could be back by morning.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Spite politics goes a long way. Plus, there are other buyers of oil around the world. And the price shootup would slightly make up for the cessation of exports.

Frankly the last comment suggests to me that you may be missing how the worldwide oil market actually works. Today you have a large number of suppliers and the Arab Nations even including Iran only make up a porportion of this worldwide market. If the Arab Nations refuse to sell to the US, this would probably be partially countered by middlemen selling under the table to the US after purchasing the oil regardless of Arab efforts. Furthermore, if the Arab nations are only selling to European nations, that would mean that the price of oil would stay identical for those nations as far as purchasing it goes, if not outright drop if the Arab nations are now selling a greater amount of oil exports directly to them, but the US oil price would rise. Even a rather minor disparity would ensure that the other worldwide oil suppliers such as Russia would stop supplying the already met demands for the European nations and supply more oil to the US instead. This would ultimately lead to only slightly higher oil prices for the US. While OPEC may be able to control overall oil prices for the worldwide market to a substancial degree, they can't effectively raise the price dramaticly just for one target nation.

 

[Martin]

I'm with the connies on this one. They'll just outsource it to Israel

 

[Kadarin]

Originally posted by: judasmachine

Originally posted by: jpeyton
I have this strange feeling that Iran will retaliate on any pre-emptive American strike on its nuclear facilities by invading Iraq.

yeah, i think you may be right. what a clusterfvck that would be...

The Iranian military would get its collective ass handed to it by the US military.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
I have this strange feeling that Iran will retaliate on any pre-emptive American strike on its nuclear facilities by invading Iraq.

ahhahaha, YAyyyyy side effects...terrorism worsens!

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Spite politics goes a long way. Plus, there are other buyers of oil around the world. And the price shootup would slightly make up for the cessation of exports.

Frankly the last comment suggests to me that you may be missing how the worldwide oil market actually works. Today you have a large number of suppliers and the Arab Nations even including Iran only make up a porportion of this worldwide market. If the Arab Nations refuse to sell to the US, this would probably be partially countered by middlemen selling under the table to the US after purchasing the oil regardless of Arab efforts. Furthermore, if the Arab nations are only selling to European nations, that would mean that the price of oil would stay identical for those nations as far as purchasing it goes, if not outright drop if the Arab nations are now selling a greater amount of oil exports directly to them, but the US oil price would rise. Even a rather minor disparity would ensure that the other worldwide oil suppliers such as Russia would stop supplying the already met demands for the European nations and supply more oil to the US instead. This would ultimately lead to only slightly higher oil prices for the US. While OPEC may be able to control overall oil prices for the worldwide market to a substancial degree, they can't effectively raise the price dramaticly just for one target nation.

Welcome to AT, you are 100% correct BTW and there are historical examples particularily with oil that prove your point.

Rumors abound that it did not matter who won the election in regards to Iran, if we go in it would have happened with bush or kerry.

 

[Falloutboy]

I don't think Iran will do a whole lot if we take out thier nuke sites. I mean they invade Iraq....then we bomb the crap out of them now thier in bigger crap then they if the just took it and didn't do anything

 

[Train]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
El Baradei is right. We should keep asking them nicely not to make nukes, let them build them, watch the crazy mullahs nuke Israel, then we can retaliate, and nuclear war can escalate around the globe. It's just so much better that way. We can stand around the glowing worldscape and at least die of radiation poinsoning knowing in our hearts we tried everything we could.

Just look at how powerful Japan and Germany got before americans finnaly woke up. History repeats itself. It will slowly escalate until boiling point, people will get burned, the world will tear itself apart, repair itself, then become relatively quite for another 50 years, and the cycle will continue.