cBS poll the left is trying to tout

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

 

[ShadesOfGrey]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey
[ ... ]
BTW, I see you keep ignoring the tax thread. Interesting.

Sir Cad lives! Trying to bait me into chasing your duhversion, huh? Let me repeat myself:

• "What's interesting about it? I'm not here to facilitate your self-gratification. I made my points and you've offered nothing to refute them, instead spouting repetitive nonsense about money and emotional value. You've provided nothing new to discuss. If I see someone who's interested in thoughtful discussion addresses my points in a meaningful way, I'll pick it up again. Until then, you're a waste of time and electrons. "

Get well soon.

"Sir Cad"? You didn't answer when I questioned it last time. WTF are you talking about?

BTW, I'll repeat what I said in the other thread in response to your BS.

Figures, you continue to flippantly dismiss what I post and ignore or refuse to answer the questions.

You are right on one account though, you are a waste of time and electrons as you don't address my points in a meaningful way.

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey
[ ... ]
BTW, I see you keep ignoring the tax thread. Interesting.

Sir Cad lives! Trying to bait me into chasing your duhversion, huh? Let me repeat myself:

• "What's interesting about it? I'm not here to facilitate your self-gratification. I made my points and you've offered nothing to refute them, instead spouting repetitive nonsense about money and emotional value. You've provided nothing new to discuss. If I see someone who's interested in thoughtful discussion addresses my points in a meaningful way, I'll pick it up again. Until then, you're a waste of time and electrons. "

Get well soon.

"Sir Cad"? You didn't answer when I questioned it last time. WTF are you talking about?

BTW, I'll repeat what I said in the other thread in response to your BS.

Figures, you continue to flippantly dismiss what I post and ignore or refuse to answer the questions.

You are right on one account though, you are a waste of time and electrons as you don't address my points in a meaningful way.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs. Did you ever see anyone about treating that cognitive dissonance?"

Get well soon.

 

[ShadesOfGrey]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

BS.

TIME uses the following sample rates:
Likely voters, 34% Republican, 35% Democrat, 22% Independent. Registered voters 31% Republican, 32% Democrat, 26% Independent

This cBS poll doesn't tell us which they called but either way their sample is WAY different from TIME.

Did cBS really think people wouldn't notice how they skewed the numbers?

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

Check the election numbers from 2004. 37% Republican, 37% Democrat, 26% Independent. This has 35% Democrats and 24% Republicans. That's not right...

 

[ShadesOfGrey]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: DonVito

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

No, you still don't seem to be able to read. The thread is not about Bush's approval rating - it's about cBS skewing it's poll to get the story it wants. A common practice by today's MSM.

Huh. It seems to me the problem is not my inability to read - I've been doing that since I was 4 - but your own inclination to start threads, then flee from their logical consequences. Bush's approval ratings are directly relevant to the subject you've raised, and they're piss-poor. You're going to have a hard time arguing that Bush's approval ratings are irrelevant to a thread about, well, Bush's approval ratings.

As I have already said once today, I suggest you refrain from starting threads if you're unwilling to engage in discussion. Your censoriousness alone can't deflect the threads you yourself start.

No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

Exactly. DonVito seems to be trolling today I guess.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGreyExactly. DonVito seems to be trolling today I guess.

Hee hee - considering the source, that's the greatest compliment I could receive.

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

BS.

TIME uses the following sample rates:
Likely voters, 34% Republican, 35% Democrat, 22% Independent. Registered voters 31% Republican, 32% Democrat, 26% Independent

This cBS poll doesn't tell us which they called but either way their sample is WAY different from TIME.

Did cBS really think people wouldn't notice how they skewed the numbers?

Time's weighting for predicting elections is irrelevant. This isn't about an election. This wasn't the Time population sample. While it's legitimate to question their adjustments, you have no factual basis for asserting as fact that CBS "fabricated" anything or did anything "outrageous". (Perhaps you're thinking of BushCo's fabrications re. Iraq's WMDs. You know, the ones in the thread you keep "ignoring". ROFL.)

I'll ask again, "Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting?" All you've shown so far is your opinion that it's wrong. You've offered no factual evidence based on the actual demographics of this poll to show the CBS adjustment is improper. Nothing. I know you have trouble separating your opinion from fact, but that's your problem. You claim CBS is wrong. Prove it.

 

[imported_Condor]

Originally posted by: EatSpam
So his approval ratings are 35% or 40%... still piss poor. You'd think with the way you guys worship Bush, his approval ratings could at least exceed 50%.

I would bet he isn't planning to run again. He probably won't pimp his wife out to run either!

 

[Moonbeam]

Bush reeks plus or minus a few percent.

 

[EatSpam]

Originally posted by: Condor

Originally posted by: EatSpam
So his approval ratings are 35% or 40%... still piss poor. You'd think with the way you guys worship Bush, his approval ratings could at least exceed 50%.

I would bet he isn't planning to run again. He probably won't pimp his wife out to run either!

I wouldn't doubt that many of his base would love to see him take a 3rd term.

That's a shame too. It would be fun to watch Laura run against Hillary.

 

[Moonbeam]

Would not a skunk, by any other sniffometer smell just as bad?

 

[ShadesOfGrey]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

BS.

TIME uses the following sample rates:
Likely voters, 34% Republican, 35% Democrat, 22% Independent. Registered voters 31% Republican, 32% Democrat, 26% Independent

This cBS poll doesn't tell us which they called but either way their sample is WAY different from TIME.

Did cBS really think people wouldn't notice how they skewed the numbers?

Time's weighting for predicting elections is irrelevant. This isn't about an election. This wasn't the Time population sample. While it's legitimate to question their adjustments, you have no factual basis for asserting as fact that CBS "fabricated" anything or did anything "outrageous". (Perhaps you're thinking of BushCo's fabrications re. Iraq's WMDs. You know, the ones in the thread you keep "ignoring". ROFL.)

I'll ask again, "Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting?" All you've shown so far is your opinion that it's wrong. You've offered no factual evidence based on the actual demographics of this poll to show the CBS adjustment is improper. Nothing. I know you have trouble separating your opinion from fact, but that's your problem. You claim CBS is wrong. Prove it.

Yes, Bowfinger, we know you like to live in your little alter-world but even considering that, it is unbelievable you continue with this crap.

You want me to prove cBS didn't weigh it correctly? Well, first off, common sense tells you that 41% is too high for Independent and 24% is way too low for Republicans. As ntdz pointed out, last year's election breakdown was 37, 37, and 26. 26 being Independent. Those two things coupled with another media outlets demographic sampling numbers is more than enough evidence to show cBS has some bad data.

Oh, and one more thing - Read this. Still want to play stupid and claim you need more proof cBS has bad data? ROFL! :laugh:

 

[Moonbeam]

24 and 5 one hundredths of the people with their heads up their asses claim they don't smell a skunk.

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

BS.

TIME uses the following sample rates:
Likely voters, 34% Republican, 35% Democrat, 22% Independent. Registered voters 31% Republican, 32% Democrat, 26% Independent

This cBS poll doesn't tell us which they called but either way their sample is WAY different from TIME.

Did cBS really think people wouldn't notice how they skewed the numbers?

Time's weighting for predicting elections is irrelevant. This isn't about an election. This wasn't the Time population sample. While it's legitimate to question their adjustments, you have no factual basis for asserting as fact that CBS "fabricated" anything or did anything "outrageous". (Perhaps you're thinking of BushCo's fabrications re. Iraq's WMDs. You know, the ones in the thread you keep "ignoring". ROFL.)

I'll ask again, "Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting?" All you've shown so far is your opinion that it's wrong. You've offered no factual evidence based on the actual demographics of this poll to show the CBS adjustment is improper. Nothing. I know you have trouble separating your opinion from fact, but that's your problem. You claim CBS is wrong. Prove it.

Yes, Bowfinger, we know you like to live in your little alter-world but even considering that, it is unbelievable you continue with this crap.

You want me to prove cBS didn't weigh it correctly? Well, first off, common sense tells you that 41% is too high for Independent and 24% is way too low for Republicans. As ntdz pointed out, last year's election breakdown was 37, 37, and 26. 26 being Independent. Those two things coupled with another media outlets demographic sampling numbers is more than enough evidence to show cBS has some bad data.

Oh, and one more thing - Read this. Still want to play stupid and claim you need more proof cBS has bad data? ROFL! :laugh:

LAST YEAR THATS WHAT IT WAS DO YOU UNDERSTAND? OVER TIME PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR POLITICAL AFFLIATION.

 

[MicroChrome]

Why would you care about cbs? Isn't fox your fav?

I'd say continue watching fox and you'll be alright.


YAWN....

 

[totalcommand]

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey
cBS link to their "story"

They make a lot of claims about why and what it means but it seems they have a little something to hide.

PDF of cBS poll

Take a look at the end of the pdf. Not only was their sample off from the start, they weighted the poll results to skew them even more!

Unweighted Total Respondents: 936
Republicans = 259 (27.67%)
Democrats = 326 (34.83%)
Independents = 351 (37.5%)

Weighted Total Respondents: 937
Republicans: 223 (23.80%)
Democrats: 326 (34.79%)
Independents: 388 (41.4%)

lowering the Republican sample from an already low 28%? As John Stossel says - Give me a break!


Talk about fabricating a story or guiding things towards the outcome you want to report or make a story about! I could care less what Bush's real poll ratings are but the fact that the media thinks they can get away with this sort of twisting of reality is outrageous.

Do Our Respondents Look Like The American Public?

At the end of our surveys, we find sometimes that we have questioned too many people from one group or another. Older people, for example, tend to be at home to answer the phone more than younger people, so there is often a greater percentage of older people in our surveys than exists in the American public.

When that happens, we take great pains to adjust our data so that I accurately reflects the whole population. That process is called ?weighting.? We make sure that our final figures match U.S. Census Bureau breakdowns on age, sex, race, education, and region of the country. We also ?weight? to adjust for the fact that people who share a phone with others have less chance to be contacted than people who live alone and have their own phones, and that households with more than one telephone number have more chances to be called than households with only one phone number.

So when we add up all the answers to our questions, we know that no one?s opinion counts for more than it should. When you see one of our poll results on TV or in the newspaper, you know that it does not show the opinions of only one or two groups of Americans.

This is a very strong statistical basis for the weighting. The poll is NOT weighted in order to lower Repubs and raise Independents (or correct for political affiliation), but is weighted for age, sex, race, etc.

In effect, the poll is also polling how the American public describes themselves politically. With an 95% confidence in +/- 3%, the poll is probably accurate.

 

[umbrella39]

The OP is right. The numbers are wrong. They are probably much lower. :laugh:

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Tab

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

BS.

TIME uses the following sample rates:
Likely voters, 34% Republican, 35% Democrat, 22% Independent. Registered voters 31% Republican, 32% Democrat, 26% Independent

This cBS poll doesn't tell us which they called but either way their sample is WAY different from TIME.

Did cBS really think people wouldn't notice how they skewed the numbers?

Time's weighting for predicting elections is irrelevant. This isn't about an election. This wasn't the Time population sample. While it's legitimate to question their adjustments, you have no factual basis for asserting as fact that CBS "fabricated" anything or did anything "outrageous". (Perhaps you're thinking of BushCo's fabrications re. Iraq's WMDs. You know, the ones in the thread you keep "ignoring". ROFL.)

I'll ask again, "Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting?" All you've shown so far is your opinion that it's wrong. You've offered no factual evidence based on the actual demographics of this poll to show the CBS adjustment is improper. Nothing. I know you have trouble separating your opinion from fact, but that's your problem. You claim CBS is wrong. Prove it.

Yes, Bowfinger, we know you like to live in your little alter-world but even considering that, it is unbelievable you continue with this crap.

You want me to prove cBS didn't weigh it correctly? Well, first off, common sense tells you that 41% is too high for Independent and 24% is way too low for Republicans. As ntdz pointed out, last year's election breakdown was 37, 37, and 26. 26 being Independent. Those two things coupled with another media outlets demographic sampling numbers is more than enough evidence to show cBS has some bad data.

Oh, and one more thing - Read this. Still want to play stupid and claim you need more proof cBS has bad data? ROFL! :laugh:

LAST YEAR THATS WHAT IT WAS DO YOU UNDERSTAND? OVER TIME PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR POLITICAL AFFLIATION.

LOL. Listen to you defend CBS! So you're saying that 35% of Republicans changed to independent or democrat in one year? GET OUT OF HERE, you are crazy.

Oh, and party affiliation has been trending towards the Republicans favor for the last 10 years or so, what makes you think that in one year it will suddenly shift totally backwards with 35% of Republicans changing parties?

 

[Painman]

Singling out one poll isn't of much use. One must look at the general trend in numerous polls.

Damn traitorous liberal co-conspirators, all 15 of those polling organizations.

 

[Red Dawn]

Yeah big deal, CBS doesn't have any credibility..just like Fox.

 

[smack Down]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Tab

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: ntdz
No, we are talking about polling methods, NOT the results of the polls. Clearly CBS is skewing the poll to get the results it wants (bad numbers for Bush). That's not to say that Bush's numbers aren't bad already, they are. Nobody is denying that.

"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

Lots of sour grapes in this thread. You know sour grapes makes sour whine, don't you?

BS.

TIME uses the following sample rates:
Likely voters, 34% Republican, 35% Democrat, 22% Independent. Registered voters 31% Republican, 32% Democrat, 26% Independent

This cBS poll doesn't tell us which they called but either way their sample is WAY different from TIME.

Did cBS really think people wouldn't notice how they skewed the numbers?

Time's weighting for predicting elections is irrelevant. This isn't about an election. This wasn't the Time population sample. While it's legitimate to question their adjustments, you have no factual basis for asserting as fact that CBS "fabricated" anything or did anything "outrageous". (Perhaps you're thinking of BushCo's fabrications re. Iraq's WMDs. You know, the ones in the thread you keep "ignoring". ROFL.)

I'll ask again, "Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting?" All you've shown so far is your opinion that it's wrong. You've offered no factual evidence based on the actual demographics of this poll to show the CBS adjustment is improper. Nothing. I know you have trouble separating your opinion from fact, but that's your problem. You claim CBS is wrong. Prove it.

Yes, Bowfinger, we know you like to live in your little alter-world but even considering that, it is unbelievable you continue with this crap.

You want me to prove cBS didn't weigh it correctly? Well, first off, common sense tells you that 41% is too high for Independent and 24% is way too low for Republicans. As ntdz pointed out, last year's election breakdown was 37, 37, and 26. 26 being Independent. Those two things coupled with another media outlets demographic sampling numbers is more than enough evidence to show cBS has some bad data.

Oh, and one more thing - Read this. Still want to play stupid and claim you need more proof cBS has bad data? ROFL! :laugh:

LAST YEAR THATS WHAT IT WAS DO YOU UNDERSTAND? OVER TIME PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR POLITICAL AFFLIATION.

LOL. Listen to you defend CBS! So you're saying that 35% of Republicans changed to independent or democrat in one year? GET OUT OF HERE, you are crazy.

Oh, and party affiliation has been trending towards the Republicans favor for the last 10 years or so, what makes you think that in one year it will suddenly shift totally backwards with 35% of Republicans changing parties?

That would be a good argument to attack the poll if it was an exit poll. It isn't so the percent that voted republicans is irrelivant. About half the population didn't vote in the last election. Who do you think is more likely not to vote republicans afraid of them gay people or indipendents?

Again:
"Do you have any statistically qualified basis for rejecting their weighting? I'm guessing not, that you're rejecting it solely because it contradicts your beliefs."

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: totalcommand

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey
cBS link to their "story"

They make a lot of claims about why and what it means but it seems they have a little something to hide.

PDF of cBS poll

Take a look at the end of the pdf. Not only was their sample off from the start, they weighted the poll results to skew them even more!

Unweighted Total Respondents: 936
Republicans = 259 (27.67%)
Democrats = 326 (34.83%)
Independents = 351 (37.5%)

Weighted Total Respondents: 937
Republicans: 223 (23.80%)
Democrats: 326 (34.79%)
Independents: 388 (41.4%)

lowering the Republican sample from an already low 28%? As John Stossel says - Give me a break!


Talk about fabricating a story or guiding things towards the outcome you want to report or make a story about! I could care less what Bush's real poll ratings are but the fact that the media thinks they can get away with this sort of twisting of reality is outrageous.

Do Our Respondents Look Like The American Public?

At the end of our surveys, we find sometimes that we have questioned too many people from one group or another. Older people, for example, tend to be at home to answer the phone more than younger people, so there is often a greater percentage of older people in our surveys than exists in the American public.

When that happens, we take great pains to adjust our data so that I accurately reflects the whole population. That process is called ?weighting.? We make sure that our final figures match U.S. Census Bureau breakdowns on age, sex, race, education, and region of the country. We also ?weight? to adjust for the fact that people who share a phone with others have less chance to be contacted than people who live alone and have their own phones, and that households with more than one telephone number have more chances to be called than households with only one phone number.

So when we add up all the answers to our questions, we know that no one?s opinion counts for more than it should. When you see one of our poll results on TV or in the newspaper, you know that it does not show the opinions of only one or two groups of Americans.

This is a very strong statistical basis for the weighting. The poll is NOT weighted in order to lower Repubs and raise Independents (or correct for political affiliation), but is weighted for age, sex, race, etc.

In effect, the poll is also polling how the American public describes themselves politically. With an 95% confidence in +/- 3%, the poll is probably accurate.

Hush. Don't you be introducing fact and statistical science into the whine-fest. SoG and ntdz don't cotton much to that libuhrul science mumbo-jumbo. Like their hero Reagan, they know they're right in their heart, even though the facts say otherwise.

 

[Bowfinger]

(In response to Czar's thread re. arguing, let's see if anyone is interested in discussing the poll's findings.)

Interesting poll. Thanks for the link to the .pdf. Several other interesting results. For example:

• 51% say the Plame leak is of "Great importance" to America, only 12% see it as of "little or no importance". This compares to 37% who thought the Clinton-Lewinsky story was of little/no importance, and 45% who thought Whitewater was of little/no importance.
  
• 64% of America thinks BushCo was deceptive about Iraq's WMDs before the invasion, either due to "Mostly lying" or to "Hiding important elements".
  
• While Bush's "favorable" rating has tanked to 33%, Cheney's is an even more abysmal 19%.
  
• Only 31% of Americans think invading Iraq was worth its costs. 42% still think it was the right thing to do, however, giving a confused 11% who think it was right to invade yet not worth the cost. Different strokes, I guess.
  
• Just less than half of Americans think Iraq will ever become a stable democracy; the overwhelming majority think it will take over two years.
  
• 50% of Americans think our trrops should leave "as soon as possible"; only 43% agree with Bush that they should stay as long as it takes.

Doesn't look like GW and John Q. Public see eye to eye on major issues. Pity more of them weren't paying attention a year ago.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: ShadesOfGrey
Did cBS really think people wouldn't notice how they skewed the numbers?

Skewing numbers is a common practice.

And CBS didn't care, because the fools who use CBS as their "news source" deserve exactly what they get. (And are delighted by it.)