CBS News Poll

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: dahunan

Originally posted by: Tom

Originally posted by: ntdz
unbelievable, look at this...

Voters in 18 battleground states favor Bush over Kerry by 53 percent to 39 percent.

that isn't all that meaningful since the election is per state, not an aggregation of all 18.

Just more Fuzzy Math - he is a good follower.. it is the same Math his leader uses

the same kind of fuzzy math that prompts you to post a reply to a gallup poll in a thread about a non-gallup poll?

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Sternfan
Maybe people just like Bush more than kerry. It could be that simple.

It's probably more like people dislike Kerry more than they dislike the Dub.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: dahunan
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

Friday :: Sep 17, 2004
Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning - And Maybe All Of Theirs

This morning we awoke to the startling news that despite a flurry of different polls this week all showing a tied race, the venerable Gallup Poll, as reported widely in the media (USA Today and CNN) today, showed George W. Bush with a huge 55%-42% lead over John Kerry amongst likely voters. The same Gallup Poll showed an 8-point lead for Bush amongst registered voters (52%-44%). Before you get discouraged by these results, you should be more upset that Gallup gets major media outlets to tout these polls and present a false, disappointing account of the actual state of the race. Why?

Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls. This is what I got back this morning:

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs ? Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)

Registered Voter Sample Party IDs ? Same Poll
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 1022
GOP: 381 (38%)
Dem: 336 (33%)
Ind: 298 (30%)

In both polls, Gallup oversamples greatly for the GOP, and undersamples for the Democrats. Worse yet, Gallup just confirmed for me that this is the same sampling methodology they have been using this whole election season, for all their national and state polls.

According to John Zogby himself:

If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.

More at url.

They are basing this off of the 2002 election at which point the republicans trounced the democrats in getting out the base.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
Well its not just the Pew poll, the Harris poll actually has Kerry ahead by 1%. I think what we can conclude from all of these conflicting polls is that there are still a large number of undecided voters out there. I'd say there are more now than there were a couple months ago. The debates will decide this election, barring a terrorist attack on our soil.

Okay so you have two polls thats show Kerry tied or ahead..

Lets see

Zogby +4% Bush
CBS +9% Bush
Time +11% Bush
Newsweek +6% Bush
Washington Post/ABC +6% Bush
CNN/USAToday/Gallup +13% Bush

Add in your two polls, avg them and Bush has a 6% lead which I would say is probably pretty accurate.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Sternfan
Maybe people just like Bush more than kerry. It could be that simple.

It's probably more like people dislike Kerry more than they dislike the Dub.

Bush is out polling Kerry in almost ever demographic. The exceptions are the youth vote and the minority vote.

 

[tec699]

Originally posted by: ntdz
i dont think theres any way in hell hilary can win a presidental election. There are too many people that absolutely hate her. She's more hated by republicans than bush is by democrats.

Hillary would have the minority voters. She would also have the women voters. I guarantee you that if she runs for president American women will line up tovote her into office. I don't care if they hate her or not. She's a woman. Nuff said.

I think 8 years of Hillary would be good for this country. The Republicans scare me!

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: tec699

Originally posted by: ntdz
i dont think theres any way in hell hilary can win a presidental election. There are too many people that absolutely hate her. She's more hated by republicans than bush is by democrats.

Hillary would have the minority voters. She would also have the women voters. I guarantee you that if she runs for president American women will line up tovote her into office. I don't care if they hate her or not. She's a woman. Nuff said.

I think 8 years of Hillary would be good for this country. The Republicans scare me!

Your line is foolish. Women are irrational beasts that dont think like that. Women are nasty to those they dont like, even if its behind their back. Women who hate Hillary would NOT vote for Hillary, thats pretty obvious.