CBO analysis of new tax bill, $100k+ earner gets big cuts, poorer earner will tax more after bill

[Jhhnn]

Cop median pay here is above 6 figures with a $3 mil pension. Median household income significantly lower There's a reason why tons of low income leave CA.



No. Public sector has a monopoly on certain services and is enabled by the pols to extract economic rents from others.

Where is "here"? a Quick google tells me than median police officers make ~$95K in CA...

 

[shortylickens]

How is this even news?
Well, I guess its news to Republican voters, who were foolish enough to believe a billionaire pussy grabber would actually make their lives better.

 

[Maxima1]

Where is "here"? a Quick google tells me than median police officers make ~$95K in CA...

Basically what I just said, but I googled as well and found numerous articles stating higher than that for different places. $95k is upper class even in CA, since any dual income will undoubtedly put you well past 80% percentile and the pension is far better than the vast majority in private sector. Why are the cops and some other public employees being compensated so much when they have many applicants (possibly thousands over a few positions?) Some places even lowered the compensation significantly, yet nothing detrimental happened. Median household income (could be two earners) is substantially lower than that. Moreover, cops get ample overtime opportunities (even paid for hours fewer than actually worked), which may not be included in all of the figures in the news or elsewhere. They also aren't exempted from the overtime rules like a lot of professionals are.

http://uccs.ucdavis.edu/events/2011-October-6-DavidNeumark

 

[Jhhnn]

How is this even news?
Well, I guess its news to Republican voters, who were foolish enough to believe a billionaire pussy grabber would actually make their lives better.

And the Birther in Chief, too...

 

[Jhhnn]

Basically what I just said, but I googled as well and found numerous articles stating higher than that for different places. $95k is upper class even in CA, since any dual income will undoubtedly put you well past 80% percentile and the pension is far better than the vast majority in private sector. Why are the cops and some other public employees being compensated so much when they have many applicants (possibly thousands over a few positions?) Some places even lowered the compensation significantly, yet nothing detrimental happened. Median household income (could be two earners) is substantially lower than that. Moreover, cops get ample overtime opportunities (even paid for hours fewer than actually worked), which may not be included in all of the figures in the news or elsewhere. They also aren't exempted from the overtime rules like a lot of professionals are.

http://uccs.ucdavis.edu/events/2011-October-6-DavidNeumark

Which has nothing to do with the GOP tax bill, of course. You're just trying to redirect ire onto a fave target of the right wing, public servants.

 

[Maxima1]

Which has nothing to do with the GOP tax bill, of course. You're just trying to redirect ire onto a fave target of the right wing, public servants.

GOP routinely looks the other way when it comes to cops and some others, since they're generally Republican.

How does it have nothing to do with the tax bill? States are currency users so all the taxes going to the monopolized services could be utilized better. Removing SALT puts pressure on the pols.

 

[Jhhnn]

GOP routinely looks the other way when it comes to cops and some others, since they're generally Republican.

How does it have nothing to do with the tax bill? States are currency users so all the taxes going to the monopolized services could be utilized better. Removing SALT puts pressure on the pols.

Utilized better by giving tax cuts to people who don't need tax cuts, right? So they can keep stock prices & exec compensation high with buybacks & inflate equity prices with hot money flowing into the markets. They won't hire more people or pay any better because they don't need to do so. Maybe they'll put more money into further automation. Oh joy.

 

[Maxima1]

Utilized better by giving tax cuts to people who don't need tax cuts, right? So they can keep stock prices & exec compensation high with buybacks & inflate equity prices with hot money flowing into the markets. They won't hire more people or pay any better because they don't need to do so.

No, that's just putting words in my mouth. You already are aware I don't agree with the GOP tax bill. It would mean more money in the pockets of those who got taxed to just give egregious compensation packages to teachers, correctional officers, firefighters, et al. You seem to be okay with the Democratic party playing favorites.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/26/business/dealbook/california-law-retirement-plan.html

California Aims Retirement Plan at Those Whose Jobs Offer None

 

[Jhhnn]

No, that's just putting words in my mouth. You already are aware I don't agree with the GOP tax bill. It would mean more money in the pockets of those who got taxed to just give egregious compensation packages to teachers, correctional officers, firefighters, et al. You seem to be okay with the Democratic party playing favorites.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/26/business/dealbook/california-law-retirement-plan.html

California Aims Retirement Plan at Those Whose Jobs Offer None

More people need solid good paying jobs & retirement accounts, not less. It's not that govt workers are overpaid but that private sector workers are increasingly underpaid in order to squeeze out the last nickel for the glorious financial elite. National income share of the top 1% has doubled to 20% since 1980 while the top .1% share has grown explosively & makes up half of that.

 

[Maxima1]

More people need solid good paying jobs & retirement accounts, not less. It's not that govt workers are overpaid but that private sector workers are increasingly underpaid in order to squeeze out the last nickel for the glorious financial elite. National income share of the top 1% has doubled to 20% since 1980 while the top .1% share has grown explosively & makes up half of that.

If you had private sector compensation in similar proportion to public sector compensation, then it would lead to too much inflation. Mind you, when there is a lot of market penetration for unionization, the premiums get smaller. Private sector won't do some of the things done in public sector (e.g. 90% pay at retirement and COLAs) for obvious reasons,, and even people like Krugman have said that the GM workers were overpaid despite the fact many in public sector are basically upper class or near it despite not having a job that's cognitively demanding or requiring a lot of skill.

 

[Jhhnn]

If you had private sector compensation in similar proportion to public sector compensation, then it would lead to too much inflation. Mind you, when there is a lot of market penetration for unionization, the premiums get smaller. Private sector won't do some of the things done in public sector (e.g. 90% pay at retirement and COLAs) for obvious reasons,, and even people like Krugman have said that the GM workers were overpaid despite the fact many in public sector are basically upper class or near it despite not having a job that's cognitively demanding or requiring a lot of skill.

Bullshit. Govt workers on average don't make much more & a lot of that comes in the form of non-inflationary benefits.

GM workers aren't public sector employees, either. If Krugman said that about public sector workers you can obviously quote him, right?

 

[Maxima1]

Bullshit. Govt workers on average don't make much more & a lot of that comes in the form of non-inflationary benefits.

Sure, not all government workers. But there's a significant portion that are egregiously paid who make up a significant portion of where state taxes go. In CA, basically the median of all teachers is around $80k with a overly generous pension. Then we compare some of the best able to pay in the private sector: utilities. Yet a nuclear operator's base is around $80k and a worse pension. Sorry, but that's just stupid.

Also, don't give me this BS when you argued to me that a universal health care plan wasn't possible.

GM workers aren't public sector employees, either. If Krugman said that about public sector workers you can obviously quote him, right?

Yes, I'm saying it's asinine to complain about compensation of GM workers when I could point to people in the public sector making a ridiculous amount for what they do.

 

[Maxima1]

You know... you might just be retarded.

https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed015/1094.html

(Mis)Allocation Effects of an Overpaid Public Sector

"In an economy in which the public sector is productive and factor inputs are rewarded according to their marginal productivity in both the public and the private sectors, the presence of a large government does not generate necessarily any allocation problem. When the provision of public infrastructure is below its optimal scale, then an increase in the size of the government can lead to an increase in total factor productivity (TFP). There is, however, a large body of evidence showing that for many countries the structure of wages and pensions and the labor law legislation are different for public and private employees. Such differences affect the occupational decision of agents and might generate some type of misallocation in the economy. We develop an equilibrium model with endogenous occupational choice, heterogeneous agents and imperfect enforcement to study the implications of an overpaid public sector. The model is estimated to be consistent with micro and macro evidence for Brazil and our counterfactual exercises show that public-private earnings premium can generate important allocation effects and sizeable productivity losses."

err.. disagree. States spend money on public schools, public transportation, public health, and other public services like adult education classes. All of those are things that help lower income people.

Also, sales taxes are far more regressive.

I'm not referring to the service itself necessarily i.e. I was referring to the compensation of those providing those services. But I would argue as well that there are definitely services provided by the government that are ineffective. Not necessarily that bad either if it allows someone to be a part of the economy.

Don't know what your point on sales taxes was. I said state taxes are more regressive than federal.

 

[bshole]

Sure, not all government workers. But there's a significant portion that are egregiously paid who make up a significant portion of where state taxes go. In CA, basically the median of all teachers is around $80k with a overly generous pension. Then we compare some of the best able to pay in the private sector: utilities. Yet a nuclear operator's base is around $80k and a worse pension. Sorry, but that's just stupid.

Also, don't give me this BS when you argued to me that a universal health care plan wasn't possible.

Yes, I'm saying it's asinine to complain about compensation of GM workers when I could point to people in the public sector making a ridiculous amount for what they do.

Egregious overpay in the mind of conservative, 80k for a person with a college degree I have a college degree and make significantly more than that. I guess I am one of the egregiously overpaid. So in the conservative's perfect world. students accrue 100K plus debt to get sub 40k jobs? This is their idea of progress? A race to the bottom for middle class professionals?

When bank executives make 10s of millions of dollars a year, pay politicians to deregulate the market and tank the entire economy through their rank incompetence, they are not underpaid, they need to be bailed out by taxpayers with billions of dollars.

 

[Maxima1]

Egregious overpay in the mind of conservative, 80k for a person with a college degree I have a college degree and make significantly more than that. I guess I am one of the egregiously overpaid. So in the conservative's perfect world. students accrue 100K plus debt to get sub 40k jobs? This is their idea of progress? A race to the bottom for middle class professionals?

A common argument for public sector compensation is that they have a college degree, but everyone knows there is a wide divide between college degrees on the amount of effort and intellect necessary. Does a librarian really need a masters in library science to adequately do their job? That's silly. Don't know what you're doing, but there's definitely something off about paying someone, for example, $80k median with great pension for less days/hours worked than typical full-time work to teach PE or Health class when even a high school student could easily achieve mastery in those subjects.

The race to the bottom they aim for would be a world of temp agencies and independent contractors.

When bank executives make 10s of millions of dollars a year, pay politicians to deregulate the market and tank the entire economy through their rank incompetence, they are not underpaid, they need to be bailed out by taxpayers with billions of dollars.

It's more difficult to assess top management's contributions (as is with many government services), but I'm sure they're overpaid here. A lot of this is wildly different depending on corporate governance in a given country.

A lot of the finance sector is probably rent-seeking and doesn't really benefit society.

 

[bshole]

A common argument for public sector compensation is that they have a college degree, but everyone knows there is a wide divide between college degrees on the amount of effort and intellect necessary. Does a librarian really need a masters in library science to adequately do their job? That's silly. Don't know what you're doing, but there's definitely something off about paying someone, for example, $80k median with great pension for less days/hours worked than typical full-time work to teach PE or Health class when even a high school student could easily achieve mastery in those subjects.

The race to the bottom they aim for would be a world of temp agencies and independent contractors.



It's more difficult to assess top management's contributions (as is with many government services), but I'm sure they're overpaid here. A lot of this is wildly different depending on corporate governance in a given country.

A lot of the finance sector is probably rent-seeking and doesn't really benefit society.

Just LoL. Keep pushing down teacher salaries in the face of a NATION wide teacher shortage. Republicans have been bashing teachers my entire life and it is an open secret that they want the public school system to fail. It is rather inexplicable to me.

The 2017-18 school year has started in many places across the country, and federal data shows that every state is dealing with shortages of teachers in key subject areas. Some are having trouble finding substitute teachers, too.

The annual nationwide listing of areas with teacher shortages, compiled by the U.S. Education Department, shows many districts struggling to fill positions in subjects such as math, the traditional sciences, foreign language and special education, but also in reading and English language arts, history, art, music, elementary education, middle school education, career and technical education, health, and computer science. That is not an exhaustive list.

Teacher shortages are nothing new — most states have reported some since data started being kept more than 25 years ago — but the problem has grown more acute in recent years as the profession has been hit with low morale over low pay, unfair evaluation methods, assaults on due-process rights, high-stakes testing requirements, insufficient resources and other issues.

According to a 2016 report by the nonprofit Learning Policy Institute, teacher education enrollment dropped from 691,000 to 451,000, a 35 percent reduction, between 2009 and 2014, the latest year for which there is data. And there are high levels of attrition, with nearly 8 percent of the teaching workforce leaving every year, the majority before retirement age.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...18-school-year-begins/?utm_term=.2b625c5a95e0

 

[Demo24]

Sure, not all government workers. But there's a significant portion that are egregiously paid who make up a significant portion of where state taxes go. In CA, basically the median of all teachers is around $80k with a overly generous pension. Then we compare some of the best able to pay in the private sector: utilities. Yet a nuclear operator's base is around $80k and a worse pension. Sorry, but that's just stupid.

Also, don't give me this BS when you argued to me that a universal health care plan wasn't possible.



Yes, I'm saying it's asinine to complain about compensation of GM workers when I could point to people in the public sector making a ridiculous amount for what they do.

You seem to be missing the whole point of why people take public sector jobs in the first place. It's rarely about the money, as that is typically less than private sector. Times that varies is when government has to do more to encourage people to work for them. It's generally for the benefits that are often significantly better than what the private sector will offer. Now in some industries and government agencies this Gap is closing and less of factor. However a consistent and 'safe' job can mean a lot to some, moreso than pay or benefits.

Per your salary argument, it's all focused on one specific set of data. You're not factoring in where those salries are or the cost of living. 80k in that area could really go about as far as 30k somewhere more rural. With many teacher salaries starting in the 20's, and poor prospects of being paid better in a reasonable timeframe, it's not hard to see why there's a shortage. NC has played around with this with the Republicans screwing up the education system (not paying teachers with masters more, etc), and it's seen a mass Exodus.

 

[FerrelGeek]

Yep. Silly people should know that they need to count on the millionaire pussy grabbers to make their lives better.

How is this even news?
Well, I guess its news to Republican voters, who were foolish enough to believe a billionaire pussy grabber would actually make their lives better.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Just LoL. Keep pushing down teacher salaries in the face of a NATION wide teacher shortage. Republicans have been bashing teachers my entire life and it is an open secret that they want the public school system to fail. It is rather inexplicable to me.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...18-school-year-begins/?utm_term=.2b625c5a95e0

privatize profits. socialize losses.

 

[fskimospy]

Just LoL. Keep pushing down teacher salaries in the face of a NATION wide teacher shortage. Republicans have been bashing teachers my entire life and it is an open secret that they want the public school system to fail. It is rather inexplicable to me.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...18-school-year-begins/?utm_term=.2b625c5a95e0

Yes, the Title II data for New York State at least is ugly, in fact last time I checked it’s even uglier than what your article says. Teacher preparation program enrollment has tanked over the last four years or so and applications for teaching positions are way down. The idea that nobody wants these jobs that are so wonderful and overpaid is ridiculous nonsense.

There are some aspects of teacher pay that are screwed up, primarily the focus on retirement benefits and longevity pay as opposed to paying newer teachers more but even if you ironed those out it doesn’t change that hugely for new teachers. It’s a tough job where you don’t get a lot of respect and where stupid people (and politicians) often think they know best how to do it, especially in shortage areas like special education.

 

[Engineer]

Yahoo News this morning has a blurb that the Senate may consider having a higher corporate rate than the 20%. IMO, not a chance. GOP donors and the House would revolt on that.

 

[fskimospy]

Yahoo News this morning has a blurb that the Senate may consider having a higher corporate rate than the 20%. IMO, not a chance. GOP donors and the House would revolt on that.

I guess we will see. The main issue with this bill is that cutting the corporate rate to 20% is so insanely expensive that all this other tax fuckery is required to make up losses. If you cut it to something more sane like 25% they could actually make a tax cut bill that was decent or even...gasp...GOOD.

So you’re right, probably no chance of that. Haha.

 

[K1052]

Rubio and Lee want a fatter child credit which will cost a lot of $ and propose to pay for it by upping the corporate rate to 22% or more.

I've said it before but I think there is a good chance that the Senate passes this time just to get into conference. However it seems a lot of them have been promised some extremely specific things for those votes. Should the conference report not include those things it's definitely possible there would be insufficient votes to pass the final bill.

 

[sdifox]

Just LoL. Keep pushing down teacher salaries in the face of a NATION wide teacher shortage. Republicans have been bashing teachers my entire life and it is an open secret that they want the public school system to fail. It is rather inexplicable to me.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...18-school-year-begins/?utm_term=.2b625c5a95e0

They want to privetise everything. You know, for the profits.

 

[K1052]

And the Treasury Secretary has promised congress a report that does not exist. I wasn't sure how this whole endeavor could be less responsible than it already is but they appear to be finding ways.

In pitching the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul, Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, has said repeatedly that the plan will pay for itself through a surge of economic growth and that over 100 people in Treasury are “working around the clock on running scenarios for us.”

Mr. Mnuchin has promised that Treasury will release its analysis in full. Yet, just one day before the full Senate prepares to vote on a sweeping tax rewrite, the administration has yet to produce the type of economic analysis that it is citing as a reason to pass the tax cut.

Those inside Treasury’s Office of Tax Policy, which Mr. Mnuchin has credited with running the models, say they have been largely shut out of the process and are not working on the type of detailed analysis that he has mentioned. An economist at the Office of Tax Analysis, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so as not to jeopardize his job, said Treasury had not released a “dynamic” analysis showing that the tax plan would be paid for with economic growth because one did not exist.

Instead of conducting full analyses of tax proposals, staff members have been running numbers on individual provisions or policy ideas, like lowering the tax rate on so-called pass-through businesses and figuring out how many family farms would benefit from the repeal of the estate tax. Activity has picked up more recently as Treasury has sought to provide technical assistance to the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office for their estimates.

The Trump administration could come under renewed pressure this week to justify its claims about the economic growth and revenue that it says the Republican tax plans will create. The Joint Committee on Taxation is rushing to finish its own analysis of the Senate bill before a vote, and many analysts expect that the results will fail to match the optimistic assumptions being made by lawmakers.

Mr. Mnuchin, in an interview in October, said that he was prepared to rebut such differences.

“There is certain things we’ll agree with Joint Tax, there’s certain things we won’t necessarily agree with Joint Tax and we’ll explain the differences,” Mr. Mnuchin said. “We want complete visibility.”

Thus far, such visibility has remained out of reach. The only detailed study of the Republican tax framework that the administration has released was a report published by the Council of Economic Advisers in October that asserted that the corporate tax cut proposal would increase a typical household’s income by $3,000 to $7,000 a year.

A spokeswoman for the council said that no additional analyses of the tax bills were currently in the works. A spokesman for the Office of Management and Budget said that he was unaware of any new reports from the agency about the economic impact of the tax bills.

https://nyti.ms/2k9yXWF