Cash For Clunkers Conspiracy?

[MikeMike]

http://www.autoblog.com/2009/0...log-with-john-mcelroy/

To hear the government tell it, foreign automakers and compact cars were the big winners in the Cash for Clunkers program. The Department of Transportation makes it look like consumers all wanted small fuel-efficient cars, particularly from the import brands.

But an analysis by Edmunds.com tells a very different story. It found that a fair number of Clunker buyers bought pickups and Ford came out as the clear winner in the Top Ten list. Indeed, Edmunds' analysis shows that the government came up with a bizarre way to count Clunker sales and we know now that the DOT counted sales based on the drivetrain in a vehicle, not by its nameplate. For example, the front-wheel drive version of the Ford Escape was counted separately from the all-wheel drive version. As a result, vehicles that only offer one drivetrain came out on the top of the list.

No one in the history of the auto industry has ever counted sales this way, and it's mighty peculiar why the government would choose to do so. Is there some other agenda at work?

The way that Edmunds counted sales shows a very different story from the government's numbers. In its report, Ford captured three of the top four positions. The Toyota Corolla, which is at the top of the government's list, falls to number five on Edmunds' list behind the F-150, which didn't even make the government's Top Ten. The Chevy Silverado didn't make the government's Top Ten either, but it's number eight with Edmunds.

The downside is that all around the country the media hammered home the DOT's version of events. Once again, the story is the Detroit Three got their butts kicked by the import brands.

The other story line that the DOT trumpeted is that consumers traded in their dirty old SUVs and bought fuel-efficient, front-wheel-drive compact cars. Boy, doesn't that just dovetail beautifully with the environmental message the Administration wants to send out about the success of this program? But Edmunds' analysis tells a truer story. It shows that full-size pickups and compact SUVs were popular choices in the Clunkers program.

The explanation I've been given is that the way the DOT counted sales is more in line with the different EPA weight-class categories. But that still doesn't make sense. Again, the auto industry has never reported sales by EPA weight-class.

And there are other problems with the DOT numbers, too. It shows that there were more Clunker trade-ins than new vehicles sold. Think about that a minute. How could people possibly trade in more cars than they bought?

How could people possibly trade in more cars than they bought?
But the biggest puzzle of all is why the Detroit Three have not said a peep about this. Presumably, GM and Chrysler are afraid to bite the hand of the government that just bailed them out. And maybe Ford is just afraid to stir the pot. But they're doing themselves a great disservice by letting this misperception go unchallenged. And if anyone needs to change perceptions, they do.

Top Clunker Sales According to DOT

1. Toyota Corolla
2. Honda Civic
3. Toyota Camry
4. Ford Focus FWD
5. Hyundai Elantra
6. Nissan Versa
7. Toyota Prius
8. Honda Accord
9. Honda Fit
10. Ford Escape FWD

Top Clunker Sales According to Edmunds

1. Ford Focus
2. Ford Escape
3. Honda Civic
4. Ford F-150
5. Toyota Corolla
6. Toyota Camry
7. Honda CR-V
8. Chevrolet Silverado
9. Hyundai Elantra
10. Honda Accord

so, wtf... the government decided to count vehicles differently seperating them by drivetrain, aka a Ford Escape FWD is not the same as a Ford Escape AWD according to the DOT, thusly why the Escape is not as high on the DOT list as it is Edmunds... so wtf is going on?

 

[sandorski]

Nothing serious I'm assuming. Government may not have Input all the applications yet and or just classified things differently than Edmonds as you suggested. I wouldn't get all worked up about it, seems to be on par with talking about Britneys' new Shoes.

 

[b0mbrman]

I knew it!

Does this mean the data for MPG here are also off?

Average Fuel Economy
New vehicles Mileage: 24.9 MPG
Trade-in Mileage: 15.8 MPG
Overall increase: 9.2 MPG, or a 58% improvement

I found numbers on Edmunds.com for week 1, $1 billion of the program -- dated August 5, found here.

Do you have a link to the raw data for numbers of sales for the whole program?

 

[miketheidiot]

not to be an apologist but doesn't the f-150 get really good gas milage for a truck?

 

[Drakkon]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
not to be an apologist but doesn't the f-150 get really good gas milage for a truck?

If you are driving around a truck for the gas mileage - as your daily driver - you are doing it wrong. And when you load a truck down it reduces the mileage down to most truck levels. So yes it gets really good gas mileage but if you are driving around all the time it makes no sense as a car/suv with the same engine will get 10mpg more and if you are loading/hauling things its negligible.

 

[herkulease]

Umm what's the agenda? don't you think Obama and his administration want to be able to put out numbers that show that the program was beneficial to American car companies rather than foreign companies. You know so he can claim the program boosted the economy saved/created jobs for Americans.

 

[StageLeft]

The gov's numbers were bullsh*t, just like C4C. Pretty much everyone agrees now that it's most significant impact was pulling forward sales that were likely to happen anyway and or pushing back those into its time frame. The average price of vehicles went up quite substantially, too; evidently a lot of people who were taking advantage of C4C paid more because they were so horned up over their rebate they didn't care that the dealer was charging them more for their actual car.

 

[Ktulu]

Where's the link to the Edmunds analysis though? I've been searching for it all day.

 

[spidey07]

How else can Obama take over more control of the auto industry if he doesn't first destroy them? Once you understand his true motives every action becomes stunningly clear and apparent.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
not to be an apologist but doesn't the f-150 get really good gas milage for a truck?

Not particularly among full-size trucks. Whether made by Ford, Dodge, Chevy, Nissan, or Toyota, they all get 15-17 in combined driving. The outlier is the 21 mpg Chevy Silverado hybrid

I'm guessing they took the $3500 rebate (where the new mileage just had to be x: 2 mpg <= x < 5 mpg)

 

[Ktulu]

Originally posted by: herkulease
Umm what's the agenda? don't you think Obama and his administration want to be able to put out numbers that show that the program was beneficial to American car companies rather than foreign companies. You know so he can claim the program boosted the economy saved/created jobs for Americans.

I'm assuming that they did not want to show any low mileage vehicles (Silverado, F-150) as top sellers as it doesn't suit the agenda to show that the people only gas sippers. Just a thought anyways.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
The gov's numbers were bullsh*t, just like C4C. Pretty much everyone agrees now that it's most significant impact was pulling forward sales that were likely to happen anyway and or pushing back those into its time frame...

...and yet no one's producing quantitative studies.

 

[spidey07]

Originally posted by: Ktulu

Originally posted by: herkulease
Umm what's the agenda? don't you think Obama and his administration want to be able to put out numbers that show that the program was beneficial to American car companies rather than foreign companies. You know so he can claim the program boosted the economy saved/created jobs for Americans.

I'm assuming that they did not want to show any low mileage vehicles (Silverado, F-150) as top sellers as it doesn't suit the agenda to show that the people only gas sippers. Just a thought anyways.

That makes a lot of sense actually.

 

[desy]

Like I said before how can GM be number 2 ? if they have zero cars in the top 10? cause like the F150 they count as 6 different kinds of trucks and Escapes count as 3 different kinds of vehicle.

The fuel mileage did go up cause Escapes gets way better mileage than an Explorers and new trucks are more fuel efficient than old ones.

Time will prove out if it primed the pump or if it wrung out the last drops of consumer demand

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: MIKEMIKE

Top Clunker Sales According to Edmunds

1. Ford Focus - 27 to 28 :thumbsup:
2. Ford Escape - 20 to 32 :thumbsup:
3. Honda Civic - 24 to 42 :thumbsup:
4. Ford F-150 - 15 to 17
5. Toyota Corolla - 25 to 30 :thumbsup:
6. Toyota Camry - 23 to 34 :thumbsup:
7. Honda CR-V - 22 to 23
8. Chevrolet Silverado - 15 to 21
9. Hyundai Elantra - 26 to 28 :thumbsup:
10. Honda Accord - 20 to 25

Those wide ranges (caused by different engines and drive trains) are annoying.

:thumbsup:: Greater than the 24.9 mpg average for new cars that DOT reported. I'd have to say the mpg numbers aren't a lie just yet.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: desy
Like I said before how can GM be number 2 ? if they have zero cars in the top 10? cause like the F150 they count as 6 different kinds of trucks and Escapes count as 3 different kinds of vehicle.

The fuel mileage did go up cause Escapes gets way better mileage than an Explorers and new trucks are more fuel efficient than old ones.

Time will prove out if it primed the pump or if it wrung out the last drops of consumer demand

Maybe 11 through 20 were all GMs?

 

[desy]

Yep silverado 4X4, silverado crew cab , silverado diesel, silverado blue ones, GMC red ones, Gmc diesel, GMC 4X4

 

[MikeMike]

so basically, the government is attempting to make fuel efficient small cars popular by making them marketed as such according to the government... and since people believe in the government, they believe the hype...

 

[YoungGun21]

The whole idea for C4C was to get people spending money to keep the economy flowing. Car manufacturers make money, quit cutting jobs, and keep producing cars. They needed the most help. They got it.

Without this program the economy just keeps sliding into a hole. This atleast helped stall it.

 

[waggy]

Originally posted by: YoungGun21
The whole idea for C4C was to get people spending money to keep the economy flowing. Car manufacturers make money, quit cutting jobs, and keep producing cars. They needed the most help. They got it.

Without this program the economy just keeps sliding into a hole. This atleast helped stall it.

sure that was the idea (well thats what was sold to us) but thats not what really happened. i really doubt many of the new car sales were really new and not just speed up sales that were going to happen anyay. the next 6-8 months of car sales should be interesting to see.

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
not to be an apologist but doesn't the f-150 get really good gas milage for a truck?

yeap. AND they are tough and reliable. I wish i hadn't sold my old F150. i beat the piss out of it on the farm. i have been tempted to buy another one but i don't have the real need for one since i moved.

but about once a month i really wish i had it still.

 

[bobsmith1492]

Pickups do better than people think... we drove my dad's ~'05 Silverado from Michigan to Newfoundland and back with 4 guys, a couple hundred pounds of gear each, and 1000lb of moose meat on the way back in the trailer.

We got ~22MPG on the way there and ~21 on the way back. It could only be better without all that crap loading it down.

 

[YoungGun21]

Originally posted by: waggy

Originally posted by: YoungGun21
The whole idea for C4C was to get people spending money to keep the economy flowing. Car manufacturers make money, quit cutting jobs, and keep producing cars. They needed the most help. They got it.

Without this program the economy just keeps sliding into a hole. This atleast helped stall it.

sure that was the idea (well thats what was sold to us) but thats not what really happened. i really doubt many of the new car sales were really new and not just speed up sales that were going to happen anyay. the next 6-8 months of car sales should be interesting to see.

Of course that's what it did. You really think people were going to buy cars with all the media spreading crap about the industry? No chance. This got people spending money, which keeps the economy flowing, which keeps us out of a depression.

 

[waggy]

Originally posted by: YoungGun21

Originally posted by: waggy

Originally posted by: YoungGun21
The whole idea for C4C was to get people spending money to keep the economy flowing. Car manufacturers make money, quit cutting jobs, and keep producing cars. They needed the most help. They got it.

Without this program the economy just keeps sliding into a hole. This atleast helped stall it.

sure that was the idea (well thats what was sold to us) but thats not what really happened. i really doubt many of the new car sales were really new and not just speed up sales that were going to happen anyay. the next 6-8 months of car sales should be interesting to see.

Of course that's what it did. You really think people were going to buy cars with all the media spreading crap about the industry? No chance. This got people spending money, which keeps the economy flowing, which keeps us out of a depression.

you really think those are new car sales and it kept the economy flowing? all it did is change the time table. Most of those people were going to buy a new car. either now or in the next few m onths. all it did is s hift the time.

so the next year's car sales rates are going to be interesting to watch. IF this was goign to keep teh economyh flowing and out of the depression all it did is stall it for a few months. it really did nothing else.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: waggy

Originally posted by: YoungGun21

Originally posted by: waggy

Originally posted by: YoungGun21
The whole idea for C4C was to get people spending money to keep the economy flowing. Car manufacturers make money, quit cutting jobs, and keep producing cars. They needed the most help. They got it.

Without this program the economy just keeps sliding into a hole. This atleast helped stall it.

sure that was the idea (well thats what was sold to us) but thats not what really happened. i really doubt many of the new car sales were really new and not just speed up sales that were going to happen anyay. the next 6-8 months of car sales should be interesting to see.

Of course that's what it did. You really think people were going to buy cars with all the media spreading crap about the industry? No chance. This got people spending money, which keeps the economy flowing, which keeps us out of a depression.

you really think those are new car sales and it kept the economy flowing? all it did is change the time table. Most of those people were going to buy a new car. either now or in the next few m onths. all it did is s hift the time.

so the next year's car sales rates are going to be interesting to watch. IF this was goign to keep teh economyh flowing and out of the depression all it did is stall it for a few months. it really did nothing else.

You keep saying that as if it were True. It is not.

 

[waggy]

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: waggy

Originally posted by: YoungGun21

Originally posted by: waggy

Originally posted by: YoungGun21
The whole idea for C4C was to get people spending money to keep the economy flowing. Car manufacturers make money, quit cutting jobs, and keep producing cars. They needed the most help. They got it.

Without this program the economy just keeps sliding into a hole. This atleast helped stall it.

sure that was the idea (well thats what was sold to us) but thats not what really happened. i really doubt many of the new car sales were really new and not just speed up sales that were going to happen anyay. the next 6-8 months of car sales should be interesting to see.

Of course that's what it did. You really think people were going to buy cars with all the media spreading crap about the industry? No chance. This got people spending money, which keeps the economy flowing, which keeps us out of a depression.

you really think those are new car sales and it kept the economy flowing? all it did is change the time table. Most of those people were going to buy a new car. either now or in the next few m onths. all it did is s hift the time.

so the next year's car sales rates are going to be interesting to watch. IF this was goign to keep teh economyh flowing and out of the depression all it did is stall it for a few months. it really did nothing else.

You keep saying that as if it were True. It is not.

you say it as if you know for sure. wich you can not. i guess the only way is to see what happens in auto sales the next year.