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Carnival games: Which ones are probably not a total scam?

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I forget the exact game he played, but a guy I play Poker with won one of those carnival games at Knotts. I guess it's one that nobody wins because they ended up getting somebody in charge to review the video tape because it was so unbelievable he won. It was a stuffed Monkey that was about 7 feet tall. He won it for $5. I find it hilarious that the game people themselves couldn't believe somebody actually won it lol. I think that says something about some of the games being beyond unfairly rigged.
 
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Some of them aren't so much a scam as they are taking advantage of people's inability to estimate probability. i.e. tossing a coin and having it land completely in the red circle. The circle is clearly larger than the coin, but people mistakenly believe that the relative area of the circle is their relative odds of winning. i.e. they think that since the circles make up about 1/30th of the total area, their odds are 1/30 of winning.. Also, because the circles are bright red against a background of white, they woefully overestimate the percentage of the surface that's actually red.

Here's the math for 1 1/2" diameter circles spaced only 6" apart (edge of the circle to edge of the circle). Of course, with a bunch of quarters scattered about, it's obvious that these circles are significantly larger than a quarter (15/16"). (Suckers!) From center to center, it's 7 inches, so if you draw a square connecting the 4 centers of circles, you end up with 49 square inches, of which you have 4 quarter-circles = a full circle. Of that, Pi * .75^2 is the area of the circle, 3.6% of the total area (49 square inches). And, even if people did this calculation, most would assume that it means that they have a 3.6% chance of winning; roughly 1 in 28.

But, if you calculate how much of the area where the quarter can actually land & win, it's significantly smaller, since the quarter has to be completely within the circle. The easiest way to calculate this (2nd easiest once someone posts an easier way 😛 ) is to figure out where the center of the circle can be. The center of the quarter has to be at least equal to its radius away from the edge of the red circle. That is, it has to be 1/2 of 15/16" away from the edge of the circle = at least 15/32" away from the edge of the circle. If you draw a circle inside the red circle, to denote the region where the center of the quarter can exist, you'll find that this new circle is 18/32" in diameter. (The entire circle is 48/32" wide; in 15/32" each from the left and right sides leaves 18/32" remaining). So, the actual area where the center of the quarter can be is
Pi * (15/64)^2 = .1726 square inches, out of that 49 square inches.

That makes the actual odds of winning 0.352% or 1 in about 284.
So, for every $71 spent by suckers, they average giving out about 1 prize that costs them $10 or less.

I don't know what the actual sizes of those circles are, and it varies, depending on what coin you're allowed to throw & the size of the prizes. But, I believe the probabilities I calculated here are in the ballpark (if not generously more in favor of the person playing the game than they actually are.)
Click to expand...

w....t....f......

my head is now spinning.......
 
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Some of them aren't so much a scam as they are taking advantage of people's inability to estimate probability. i.e. tossing a coin and having it land completely in the red circle. The circle is clearly larger than the coin, but people mistakenly believe that the relative area of the circle is their relative odds of winning. i.e. they think that since the circles make up about 1/30th of the total area, their odds are 1/30 of winning.. Also, because the circles are bright red against a background of white, they woefully overestimate the percentage of the surface that's actually red.

Here's the math for 1 1/2" diameter circles spaced only 6" apart (edge of the circle to edge of the circle). Of course, with a bunch of quarters scattered about, it's obvious that these circles are significantly larger than a quarter (15/16"). (Suckers!) From center to center, it's 7 inches, so if you draw a square connecting the 4 centers of circles, you end up with 49 square inches, of which you have 4 quarter-circles = a full circle. Of that, Pi * .75^2 is the area of the circle, 3.6% of the total area (49 square inches). And, even if people did this calculation, most would assume that it means that they have a 3.6% chance of winning; roughly 1 in 28.

But, if you calculate how much of the area where the quarter can actually land & win, it's significantly smaller, since the quarter has to be completely within the circle. The easiest way to calculate this (2nd easiest once someone posts an easier way 😛 ) is to figure out where the center of the circle can be. The center of the quarter has to be at least equal to its radius away from the edge of the red circle. That is, it has to be 1/2 of 15/16" away from the edge of the circle = at least 15/32" away from the edge of the circle. If you draw a circle inside the red circle, to denote the region where the center of the quarter can exist, you'll find that this new circle is 18/32" in diameter. (The entire circle is 48/32" wide; in 15/32" each from the left and right sides leaves 18/32" remaining). So, the actual area where the center of the quarter can be is
Pi * (15/64)^2 = .1726 square inches, out of that 49 square inches.

That makes the actual odds of winning 0.352% or 1 in about 284.
So, for every $71 spent by suckers, they average giving out about 1 prize that costs them $10 or less.

I don't know what the actual sizes of those circles are, and it varies, depending on what coin you're allowed to throw & the size of the prizes. But, I believe the probabilities I calculated here are in the ballpark (if not generously more in favor of the person playing the game than they actually are.)
Click to expand...

oh
 
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Some of them aren't so much a scam as they are taking advantage of people's inability to estimate probability. i.e. tossing a coin and having it land completely in the red circle. The circle is clearly larger than the coin, but people mistakenly believe that the relative area of the circle is their relative odds of winning. i.e. they think that since the circles make up about 1/30th of the total area, their odds are 1/30 of winning.. Also, because the circles are bright red against a background of white, they woefully overestimate the percentage of the surface that's actually red.

Here's the math for 1 1/2" diameter circles spaced only 6" apart (edge of the circle to edge of the circle). Of course, with a bunch of quarters scattered about, it's obvious that these circles are significantly larger than a quarter (15/16"). (Suckers!) From center to center, it's 7 inches, so if you draw a square connecting the 4 centers of circles, you end up with 49 square inches, of which you have 4 quarter-circles = a full circle. Of that, Pi * .75^2 is the area of the circle, 3.6% of the total area (49 square inches). And, even if people did this calculation, most would assume that it means that they have a 3.6% chance of winning; roughly 1 in 28.

But, if you calculate how much of the area where the quarter can actually land & win, it's significantly smaller, since the quarter has to be completely within the circle. The easiest way to calculate this (2nd easiest once someone posts an easier way 😛 ) is to figure out where the center of the circle can be. The center of the quarter has to be at least equal to its radius away from the edge of the red circle. That is, it has to be 1/2 of 15/16" away from the edge of the circle = at least 15/32" away from the edge of the circle. If you draw a circle inside the red circle, to denote the region where the center of the quarter can exist, you'll find that this new circle is 18/32" in diameter. (The entire circle is 48/32" wide; in 15/32" each from the left and right sides leaves 18/32" remaining). So, the actual area where the center of the quarter can be is
Pi * (15/64)^2 = .1726 square inches, out of that 49 square inches.

That makes the actual odds of winning 0.352% or 1 in about 284.
So, for every $71 spent by suckers, they average giving out about 1 prize that costs them $10 or less.

I don't know what the actual sizes of those circles are, and it varies, depending on what coin you're allowed to throw & the size of the prizes. But, I believe the probabilities I calculated here are in the ballpark (if not generously more in favor of the person playing the game than they actually are.)
Click to expand...

...
 
Originally posted by: Mwilding
I've already given away eight pencils, two hoola dolls, and an ashtray, and I've only taken in fifteen dollars.

Navin, you have taken in fifteen dollars and given away fifty cents worth of crap, which gives us a net profit of fourteen dollars and fifty cents.

Ah... It's a profit deal. Takes the pressure off. Get your weight guessed right here! Only a buck! Actual live weight guessing! Take a chance and win some crap!
Click to expand...

You Jerk
 
The balloon one that is at our fair is impossible to lose. They let you keep throwing until you hit one and pop it. The prizes are just worth less than the cost to play.
 
Ring toss on glass bottles. It looks easy, but it's not. But at same time, it's not impossible either. We got 2 (after spending 40 bucks LMAO). Now try to bring a 6 foot tall stuffed bear and a 8 foot banana into a car.... fun times.
 
Softball in the milk jug

I rule at this game and have won most every time I play. The prize is always a very big, jumbo, stuffed animal.

I have won at Disneyland C-A, Santa Cruz Boardwalk, and Circus Circus. Lugging around a giant stuffed cow in Disneyland was not fun but my daughter thought we were the coolest.

Its all about back spin when you do the toss.

Many parks have increased the odds of you losing by hanging the prizes directly over the milk jugs so you can not get the proper height and force you to throw the ball and not lob it.
If this is the case, walk away, your odds of winning are slim to none.



 
Originally posted by: CPA
Originally posted by: DrPizza
<snip>
Click to expand...

w....t....f......

my head is now spinning.......
Click to expand...

In other words, if I lay out a table of circles that are more than 2 1/2 times as large as a quarter (2.56 times as large), and space those circles apart by 6 inches, and allow you to toss quarters at my table from 5 feet away, and promise to give you $10 every time a quarter lands completely in one of those circles, I'm going to make a lot of money. Sucker!!!

I'll average approximately $61 in profit for every time I have to pay out $10.
 
Originally posted by: Mwilding
I've already given away eight pencils, two hoola dolls, and an ashtray, and I've only taken in fifteen dollars.

Navin, you have taken in fifteen dollars and given away fifty cents worth of crap, which gives us a net profit of fourteen dollars and fifty cents.

Ah... It's a profit deal. Takes the pressure off. Get your weight guessed right here! Only a buck! Actual live weight guessing! Take a chance and win some crap!
Click to expand...

ALL TIME CLASSIC

Also:

Navin: "For one dollar I'll guess you weight, your height, or your sex. The most exciting thing on the midway. Imagine the thrill of getting your weight guessed by a professional. You can blow up your cheeks, you can stick out your chest, but you're not going to fool the guesser. How about you sir? Step right up!"
Carnival Rube: "Hey honey, let's see how good this guy is. What'd I win?"
Navin: "Uh, anything in this general area right in here. Anything below the stereo and on this side of the bicentennial glasses. Anything between the ashtrays and the thimble. Anything in this three inches right in here in this area. That includes the Chiclets, but not the erasers."
 
I used to be a carnie 🙁

This one time I gave away one of the huge animals when I worked the dart balloon game. This kid shot a small prize thingy, so I gave him a massive animal.
My boss was asking which one he shot. I just said I moved the large prize thing since someone won to hide my shenanigans.

Worst job ever. That or working the slide and pushing dirty children down it.
 
I have relatives that owned an amusment company. Every time they came to town I got to help out in the games. They are all winnable.

It was a great date thing when I got older. I could always win prizes for my dates. I was particularly good at the cats and the rope ladder.
 
my favorite is

toss a ping pong ball into one of several plastic bowl floating in a baby swimming pool...
hardest game i ever played.
 
The only ones that might be a scam are the ones that aren't fun, and they're a scam regardless of whether they're fair or not.
 
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